New Primary Date in California Could Change the '08 Race

March 15, 2007 — -- Glad-handing in New Hampshire, kissing babies in Iowa -- the practices of lesser-known politicians trying to get a leg up, or just get noticed, is a generations-old tradition in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first in the nation.

But so-called "retail politics" -- pounding the pavement and meeting the populace face to face -- could change with California's decision to move its primary date up to Feb. 5.

The date is so close to the contests in New Hampshire, Jan. 22, and Iowa, Jan. 14, that it could overwhelm the smaller states and cause a gold rush of campaigning there.

Iowa and New Hampshire used to be places where dark horse candidates, like the relatively unknown Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992, had a chance to get noticed.

"They were basically events that allowed presidential candidates to meet voters in … one-on-one situations," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at University of California at Berkeley. "Campaigning in California is campaigning through TV ads and spending money."

Consider this: Arnold Schwarzenegger spent about $50 million over two years running for governor. No one is saying this will happen, but if all the 19 presidential candidates spent that much campaigning in California, the total cost in that state alone would be $950 million.

The expense will clearly give the top fundraisers a very substantial upper hand.

And it's not just California. As many as 23 states may move their primaries up to Feb. 5 as well, creating a kind of superduper Tuesday.

"I mean you're talking about essentially the majority of the delegates being decided before the middle of February," Cain said.