Obama's $25 Million Raises Stakes for '08 Bid

April 5, 2007 — -- Now that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's impressive fundraising numbers are finally in -- he raised nearly as much as Democratic front-runner New York Sen. Hillary Clinton -- the stakes are rising in the race for the 2008 White House.

Obama, who raised $25 million in the first quarter of campaign fundraising, proved he could keep pace with Clinton who raised $26 million.

"They're stunned. They said, 'How did this guy named Obama who hasn't been in Washington that long -- how'd he raise this money?'" Obama said on Wednesday night to a packed gymnasium at Northern Iowa Area Community College in Mason City, Iowa.

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who raised $23 million, eclipsed front-runner former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain. McCain's take at $12 million was much lower than expected, and he is being forced to restructure his fundraising effort.

"There [are] only a few things that matter in the invisible primary: polls and money mainly," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "So if a candidate can beat the expectations game, then that candidate can change political reality."

Beyond finances, another benchmark to watch is debates. In late April and early May, the candidates will move from proving financial prowess to performance ability.

"People will start to get a better sense of the candidates and some candidates will undoubtedly make gaffes that will cost them badly," Sabato said.

The third benchmark is polls. By summer, voters can watch the Iowa straw poll for Republicans. In December, the national polls will really start to matter.

Before December, "the only polls that matter are the ones in the early [primary] states, especially Iowa and New Hampshire," Sabato said.

The candidates are already spending an extraordinary amount of time in those states, which will be critical springboards for the early primary sweepstakes.

Finally, you never know about the X factor. Most recently, it's the "Elizabeth Edwards effect," which might make a difference in the polls.

A recent New Hampshire survey shows that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards moved up among Democrats to second place -- behind Clinton and ahead of Obama -- after he and his wife announced her cancer recurrence and their decision to keep campaigning.