Montana Latest Stop in Western Offensive

July 4, 2008 — -- Sen. Barack Obama is celebrating the Fourth of July in the usual way -- attending a picnic and parade. What is a bit unusual for the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, however, is that he's doing these things in Butte, Mont., a state traditionally dominated by Republican voters.

In an effort to give very red states like Montana a more bluish hue, Obama's campaign has launched an extensive western offensive that has already included stops in Colorado and Fargo, N.D.

"I'm a firm believer that 90 percent of success is showing up, and Democrats haven't been showing up in these places," Obama said in a news conference yesterday.

But a quick look at history shows that Obama may have to do a little more than just show up to succeed in this region.

John Kerry lost Montana four years ago by a resounding 20 percentage points to President Bush. Only two Democratic candidates have carried the state since 1948. Kerry didn't fair much better in Colorado, Alaska or North Dakota, either, losing by 15, 26 and 27 percentage points, respectively.

"It's unprecedented for a Democrat to come in and say that Montana is one of the 15 states 'we' can win," political scientist Craig Wilson told The Associated Press.

Much of Obama's success in the region could depend on how he recovers from what Republican National Convention spokesman Alex Conant called a "reversal" on his policy concerning Iraq.

The Illinois senator told a news conference Thursday that he would "continue to refine" his plans on withdrawing troops from Iraq, which caused many to question an earlier promise to get troops out in 16 months. Later, he called another conference to clarify his position.

"I will bring our troops out at a pace of one to two brigades per month and at that pace we will have our combat troops out in 16 months," he said.

Obama is not the only one going after states that are out of his party's comfort zone, even though Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, is celebrating the Fourth at his home in Arizona. He's taking aim at traditionally blue states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

But as most of America fires up the grill and lights fireworks, politics may not be far from their minds. An Associated Press poll found that 52 percent of Americans would rather have Obama at their barbecue, compared with 45 percent who'd prefer McCain.