Putin shakes up cabinet, replacing defense minister as war in Ukraine grinds on: ANALYSIS

LONDON -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday night carried out one of his biggest cabinet shake-ups in years, removing his long-time defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, who is widely blamed for the disastrous handling of the war in Ukraine.

Shoigu has served as defense minister for 12 years and has been a key figure within Putin's regime, often painted as one of his closest lieutenants. The two have over the years holidayed together in Siberia, with the Kremlin flaunting the photos of the two hiking and horse-riding together.

But since the early months of the full-scale invasion into neighboring Ukraine, there have been calls for Shoigu's removal over the Russian army's shambolic performance in Ukraine, that saw it humbled outside Kyiv and suffer casualties estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands. The Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin during his mutiny last summer had made Shoigu's removal his key demand.

But despite Shoigu's glaring failures, Putin characteristically resisted calls to replace him, likely because doing so would be an admission of failure and would also alienate a loyal ally. That continued after the Wagner rebellion.

The fact that Putin has finally removed him now suggests the Kremlin is feeling more confident -- with Russian forces on the advance and Ukraine on its back foot, the Kremlin believes it can risk such a reshuffle.

Shoigu's replacement has surprised most observers -- Andrey Belousov is an economist with no military experience or connections, who until his promotion was a first deputy prime minister. Several analysts said they believe his appointment is intended to signal the Kremlin's determination to continue developing Russia's war economy and to rebuild its armed forces.

Belousov's lack of military connections also means he is entirely the Kremlin's man inside the armed forces.

Shoigu himself was named secretary of Russia's National Security Council, nominally a promotion but in reality a position that has less power. The move suggests Putin is trying to reward Shoigu's loyalty by compensating him with the role, while still removing him.

That move has also caused another surprise -- Shoigu will take over the position from Nikolai Patrushev, a hard-line former spy chief who is known as one of Putin's closest allies and one of the most powerful men in Russia. Putin's spokesman said Patrushev will be given another role, which will be announced in the coming days.

Another immediate question is whether Chief of Russia's General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov may also now be replaced. Gerasimov, perhaps even more than Shoigu, has been heavily criticized for the management of the war. For now though, he remains in place.

The reshuffle ultimately is unlikely to immediately impact the war in Ukraine and in general likely indicates the Kremlin is feeling more confident. It also may well be bad news for Ukraine, given how incompetent Shoigu has proven to be -- it suggests Putin is aware of that and is cautiously taking steps to overhaul things.

"Shoigu is moving into a respectable and powerful position because he is loyal, and he and Putin are friends," Dara Massicot, an expert on Russian military issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on X. "It's a signal that Putin listens to chatter and understands that Shoigu needed to leave the MOD, where he was just tolerated by his ministry and other agencies."