Israel Threatens to Choke Off Hamas as New Government Is Sworn In

Feb. 17, 2006 — -- Even before the first new Hamas members of the Palestinian Legislative Council take their oaths of office, the future of the assembly and the new Hamas government looks bleak.

Tomorrow 74 newly elected Hamas members will be sworn in to the Palestinian parliament. A new parliamentary speaker from Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will ask a Hamas prime minister to form the next government.

This will be the crowning moment in the astonishing electoral success of the radical Islamic faction considered by both Israel and the United States to be a terrorist organization.

But Israel insists that Hamas must first promise to renounce violence, recognize the state of Israel and honor existing agreements with the Jewish state before normal relations can even begin.

So far, Hamas has flatly refused to make any such commitments.

Sanctions in Sight?

As a result, no member of the Palestinian parliament from Gaza will be traveling to Ramallah for tomorrow's swearing-in ceremony. Instead, a video conferencing system will link the two groups of isolated parliamentarians.

In a further response to Hamas' defiance, the Israeli government of acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is prepared to cut ties with the Palestinian administration, saying that as soon as Hamas takes over the Palestinian Authority will become a "terrorist authority".

Already the Israelis have prepared a punitive package of economic and political sanctions against the new Hamas government. The final measures will be confirmed during Sunday's weekly Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem.

The basic outlines have been widely leaked and include:

   Israel's cancellation of monthly transfers of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority used to pay salaries of public employees.

   The cancellation of permits allowing Palestinian workers to enter Israel from Gaza.

   The cancellation of permits allowing Palestinians to move between Gaza and the West Bank.

   The shelving of plans to develop a port and reopen the airport in Gaza.

   The increased restriction on the movement of members of the Palestinian parliament between Gaza and the West Bank.

All these measures are designed to make life difficult for the new Hamas-led government and to starve it of much-needed funding. The Palestinian Authority relies on foreign funding to the tune of more than $1 billion a year. Dov Weisglass, a senior Israeli political adviser, was quoted this week as saying the measures are designed "to put the Palestinians on a diet but not starve them to death."

The U.S. administration has in large part supported the Israeli tactics, although this week Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was quick to emphasize that U.S. aid for humanitarian projects in the Palestinian territories would continue.

Smooth Transition Unlikely

The leaders of Hamas have, so far, refused to bend to the threatened sanctions, saying that they have a clear and unconditional mandate from the Palestinian people.

In the meantime, members of the group's exiled leadership have engaged in a furious round of regional diplomacy intended to raise funds and support from neighboring Arab and Islamic countries.

Khaled Mashaal, the head of the group's political bureau, has this week visited Egypt, Sudan and, most recently, Turkey in his bid to bolster support and seek alternative sources of money. In early March he is expected to head a Hamas delegation on a controversial and groundbreaking visit to Moscow at the invitation of President Vladimir Putin.

While the Israeli government's determination to sabotage the emerging Hamas government currently enjoys broad diplomatic support, many fear the sanctions will further erode the ruined Palestinian economy and make life even harder for ordinary Palestinians.

Behind the scenes, some European diplomats are warning that such punishing measures risk further alienating Palestinian moderates, and that the blame for the deepening economic pain will be laid squarely at the door of Israel and its U.S. allies.

While tomorrow's ceremony will be a cause for celebration for the thousands of Palestinians who voted for Hamas, the chance for a smooth transition to power look almost impossible.