Reporter's Notebook: Will Olmert Fulfill Promises?

JERUSALEM, May 4, 2006 — -- On the day Israel's new prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is sworn in, there are serious doubts about his ability to execute the main platform for which he was elected.

During the election, Olmert promised Israelis a way out of the 38-year-old conflict with Palestinians. Exhausted by ongoing violence and the long list of failed peace talks, the people voted for Olmert to carry out a plan to simply separate from the Palestinians, a plan that began with Ariel Sharon's disengagement from Gaza last fall.

Olmert is promising to withdraw from more settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, this time in the West Bank. The goal is to try to create Israel's final borders, consolidate the country, and ensure a Jewish majority for the state of Israel. Olmert calls the plan Convergence.

Olmert, however, may not have the political capital or the confidence of the Israeli public to execute this massive undertaking. His party achieved far fewer seats than the number needed to give him a clear mandate for such a major step.

Olmert's new coalition government is shaky. He has just 67 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Not all members of his coalition support Convergence, despite his demand that any member of his government back his plan. Olmert's about-face on this issue has contributed to his image as a weak leader. He is a career politician and not one of the tough former "generals" who have led Israel since its inception.

The exact details of Convergence are still not known. At the end of this month, Olmert will visit Washington, where he will discuss and perhaps finalize preparations.

It's expected that many of the largest settlements blocs, as they are called, are likely to remain: Ariel -- population, 17,000; Ma'ale Adumim -- population, 30,000; and Modi'in Illit -- population, 22,000. Those settlements blocs cut right across the West Bank, and new borders set by Convergence are also likely to annex other parts of occupied Palestinian territory.

Olmert is careful to offer the possibility of negotiations with a peaceful Palestinian partner, but many believe he would rather act alone. The new Hamas Palestinian prime minister calls Convergence a declaration of war.

The logistics and, especially, the cost of Convergence are also considered major impediments. Consider disengagement from Gaza involved removing about 8,000 settlers whereas Convergence will involve removing about 80,000 to 100,000 settlers.

It's widely believed Olmert will now spend the next two years strengthening his image and gathering support for Convergence. If Olmert still does not have the confidence of the Israeli government or the public, it's likely he will go back to the people, and Israel will face another election.