Who's Running Cuba?

HAVANA, CUBA, Oct. 9, 2006 — -- Defense minister and second in the Cuban hierarchy, Raul Castro insisted on Sunday that his 80-year-old brother, Fidel, was on the mend after undergoing abdominal surgery, and that he'd be back in office soon.

However, the younger brother and presidential stand-in of more than two months is now taking over the leftist icon's political space like no one else has in 47 years, fostering renewed speculation over the future leadership of the Communist island nation.

Time magazine reported over the weekend that U.S. government officials believe the elder Castro has terminal cancer, but one official cautioned that definitive proof was not available.

"Fidel is doing well. He has a telephone and is using it more and more," Raul said Sunday during a televised national meeting of 15-year-old students in Havana.

"He is not dying as some press in Miami report, but constantly improving," he said, adding that the student delegates would hold a special session with his brother in December.

Raul said he and other leaders had met with Fidel Friday evening "for a number of hours" during which they discussed "important matters" and Fidel "gave instructions."

Fidel issued a communique on July 31, stating that he was temporarily ceding power to Raul, 75, because he was undergoing surgery for intestinal bleeding and would need weeks to recover.

Fidel has not appeared publicly since July 26. State-run media have carried videos and pictures of him in pajamas meeting friends and dignitaries in his hospital room, but no new photographs of the leader have been released in three weeks.

"They are keeping everyone confused about the situation. One minute, it's 'Fidel will be back soon' and the next, Raul acts like he is now president," a Western diplomat told ABC News.

Barring a major medical setback, various government sources insist that Fidel will once more occupy his office before the end of the year, but it will be difficult, indeed, to erase recent events and Raul's emergence as a somewhat less verbal substitute.

It seems a dual leadership with a bigger role for Raul is the most likely scenario in the coming months.

Last week, Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque told Cubans that Castro would return to his post as maximum leader, but he did not say when.

Raul Takes Center Stage

There are various versions of what ails Fidel, from terminal cancer to the deterioration of his large intestine.

Only a few know the truth. Fidel's health and, even, location are carefully guarded secrets, which fuel endless speculation.

Many Western diplomats believe the open talk of succession that suddenly began last November in Cuba was linked to an awareness that Fidel's health was deteriorating.

For the first time, life after Fidel was publicly debated.

Meanwhile, even Fidel's most strident supporters are coming to grips with the reality that whatever ails him, there is no longer a fiery hero on horseback leading the nation in a charge against real and imagined foes.

"I am sure Fidel will be back, though. Of course, he won't be able to do everything like before," Communist party militant Eddie Machin said.

Power is exercised in Cuba behind the scenes at government, Communist party and military meetings. Until just a few weeks ago, Cuban state media projected the idea that Fidel was the only leader in charge.

Raul's recent public presence contrasts sharply with his first six weeks as Cuba's leader, when he remained out of public view.

The younger Castro -- whether at this weekend's youth meeting, welcoming visiting dignitaries, or when he delivered his first domestic speech broadcast live to the nation two weeks ago -- has emerged center stage.

"Raul's more visible role inevitably reflects the fact that Cuba cannot run on autopilot forever, and Fidel Castro's recovery is occurring very gradually, if at all," said Dan Erikson, Caribbean expert at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

"Thus far, Raul's style very much reflects his overall approach to power: technical competence and deference to Fidel, combined with methodically strengthening his grip on the levers of government," Erikson said.