Cuba's Political Succession Has Already Occurred
Dec. 14, 2006 — -- Gen. Raúl Castro and a collective leadership have effectively taken the reins of power in Cuba. Fidel Castro may live a while longer, but it is highly unlikely that he will ever return to rule Cuba as he has in the past.
The new leadership hosted the nonaligned summit in September -- a major international conference that reaffirms Cuba's ongoing significant international clout.
It presides over a continuing spurt of economic growth, fueled in large part by the mutually productive partnership between Cuba and Hugo Chávez's Venezuela.
It has launched a crackdown on corruption, dismissing heads of major government posts as well as exposing the petty corruption that robs consumers of metropolitan Havana in their daily interactions with government-run shops, restaurants and stores.
The style of the new leadership is telling. Acting President Raúl Castro has mastered the art of the 20-minute speech, signaling a major contrast to his brother, for whom no speech seemed long enough. Raúl Castro is brisk and to-the-point, but also less publicly persuasive than his loquacious brother.
The members of the top collective leadership team have delineated their responsibilities and sustained a united approach before their people and the world. Each has his own task. They do not get in each other's way.
The government, the communist party and their network of mass organizations successfully mobilized a large enough number of people to fill the streets to honor Fidel's 80th birthday celebration on the 50th anniversary of his landing in Cuba (Dec. 2, 1956) to launch the insurrectionary war that would bring him to power on Jan. 2, 1959.
Yet, there are some clouds on the horizon. The specter of civil war may haunt Cuba's future.
Within hours of the announcement on July 31, 2006, that Fidel Castro had been hospitalized, some prominent Cuban-origin political leaders in Miami called upon Cubans to revolt against their government. For his part, Gen. Raúl Castro also mobilized the Cuban armed forces and called up the ready reserves.
Jorge Dominguez is the Antonio Madero professor of government and vice provost for international affairs at Harvard University. Born in Havana, he came to the United States in 1960. He has written "Cuba: Order and Revolution"and "To Make the World Safe for Revolution: Cuba's Foreign Policy."
The successful political succession, moreover, may unravel for various reasons. It is uncertain whether Cubans will respond differently to the current new government after Fidel Castro actually dies, notwithstanding their ongoing compliance with laws and customs.
Much of Cuba's economic future depends on continuing subsidies from Venezuela. That relationship could be adversely affected if the world price of petroleum were to drop more than it has. It could also be hurt if the new Cuban leadership gets along less well with President Chávez than has hitherto been the case, even though the governments of both Raúl Castro and Chávez still have much to gain from a continuing partnership.
The new governing team may, however, consolidate its rule. As compared to Fidel Castro, Raúl Castro has long been associated with a stronger interest in better economic management, higher attention to the value of strengthening institutions, and closer attention to practical concerns.
Raúl Castro has shown a significant interest in the spectacular market-oriented economic reforms that have been implemented in the People's Republic of China for more than a quarter century.
A Raúl Castro government could, therefore, enact major economic changes and thereby significantly change the character of the ruling regime even if political power were to remain in the hands of the communist party. Economic growth could provide political support.
Raúl Castro is a man of few words but many professional accomplishments. As armed forces minister, he was a key architect of the deployment of hundreds of thousands of Cuban troops to many countries around the world from the 1960s to the 1980s. He deserves part of the credit for Cuba's military victories in the three major wars that Cuban troops fought and won on African soil in the 1970s and 1980s.
As first vice president of the Council of State and the Council of Ministers, he has looked after important sectors of Cuban economic life, "exporting" military officers to head several ministries of government and, especially, some of Cuba's current cutting-edge joint ventures with foreign firms.
Jorge Dominguez is the Antonio Madero professor of government and vice provost for international affairs at Harvard University. Born in Havana, he came to the United States in 1960. He has written "Cuba: Order and Revolution"and "To Make the World Safe for Revolution: Cuba's Foreign Policy."
One of the recurring themes in Raúl Castro's brief speeches has been a call for improved relations between Cuba and the United States.
In the past, he has been the most senior official who has called attention to and praised the sound professional relations between U.S. and Cuban military officers on both sides of the border around the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo at the eastern end of the island of Cuba.
He has argued that such respectful professionalism should be the model for all official U.S.-Cuban relations.
The hurricane season for 2006 has now ended in the Caribbean Sea. It is too soon to tell whether political hurricanes will be part of Cuba's future in 2007. For the time being, however, a new team has settled in to govern Cuba. They are ready to rule.
Jorge Dominguez is the Antonio Madero professor of government and vice provost for international affairs at Harvard University. Born in Havana, he came to the United States in 1960. He has written "Cuba: Order and Revolution"and "To Make the World Safe for Revolution: Cuba's Foreign Policy."