Six-Party Summit on North Korea: Don't Expect a Breakthrough Anytime Soon
BEIJING, Dec. 19, 2006 — -- The day begins with reporters huddled in subfreezing temperatures outside the imposing gates of Diaoyutai Guest House as the diplomatic limousines with blackened windows whisk the delegations in or out of the six-nation summit on nuclear negotiations with North Korea.
Then, it's across town to the ornate lobby of the St. Regis Hotel, where reporters are corralled behind a red velvet rope for hours in hopes of a morsel of news from a passing delegate.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill has been the most forthcoming and the biggest crowd pleaser so far. His demeanor is relaxed, calm and patient, showing no signs of exasperation -- quite an accomplishment when negotiating with the tough North Korean delegation.
When Hill tells reporters that U.S. patience is running out, it sounds less like a threat than a bit of wise council for an adversary.
"The supply of our patience may have exceeded the international demand for that patience," he said. "We should be patient by picking up the pace and working faster."
Not afraid to show a sense of humor, Hill added, "I don't plan to spend Christmas here."
Day One: North Korea Defiance and Some Deja Vu
No one was surprised that the first day of talks was dominated by North Korean defiance and bluster.
As expected, North Korea's chief negotiator, Kim Kye-Gwan, said his country had joined the exclusive nuclear club and expected to receive the world's respect. The only way the North will consider stepping back from its nuclear program will be if the following happens: the United Nations lifts all sanctions, the United States ends its freeze of North Korean financial assets at its principal bank in Macau and the Americans end their threats and hostility against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
If all those demands sound familiar, they should. In September 2005, at an earlier round of these six-party talks, North Korea agreed to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for financial aid and security guarantees from the United States. That agreement was called the "September 2005 Joint Statement."
And, if you go back a few more years, there was a similar deal called the "Agreed Framework," in which the North said it would abandon its nuclear program in exchange for aid. In the last days of the Clinton administration, the North reaffirmed its willingness to put its nuclear program on ice for a couple of years to allow time for discussions with the new Bush administration.
That moratorium ended when President George W. Bush proclaimed that North Korea was part of a modern "axis of evil" alongside Iraq and Iran. The Bush administration also decreed that there would be no rewards for bad behavior. And from that point, North Korea's behavior took an even more dramatic turn for the worse -- eventually leading to long-range missile tests and the North's first nuclear weapons test.
Stage Set for Another Deal?
But, here we are again at the six-party talks in Beijing (which first began in 2003), with U.S. diplomats sitting down with China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea. There will even be one-on-one U.S.-North Korea meetings on the side. Is the stage being set for a deal?
On the surface, the U.S. position is as hard-line as the North Korean demands. Give up your nuclear weapons or face increasingly strict sanctions.
Again, Christopher Hill's words are more palatable in an Asian context where blunt threats can be counterproductive. (Even North Korea tones it down after its initial bluster and threats.)
"I think we're at a fork in the road," Hill said. "I can't tell at this point which road the [North Koreans] are choosing. We can go either road. We would like to denuclearize by diplomatic negotiation, but if they don't want that, we are quite prepared to go the other road."
What no one is saying is how long a road the United States will accept. There are no time limits placed on these six-party talks. And no one expects a breakthrough settlement before the Americans leave for Christmas.
The United States does have one significant bargaining chip aside from the sanctions threat. At the end of last year, the U.S. Department of the Treasury slapped sanctions on an obscure bank in the gambling Mecca of Macau. Banco Delta Asia was holding more than $20 million in North Korean accounts, allegedly used for money laundering, smuggling, paying for weapons deals and moving sophisticated counterfeit dollars into global markets.
Freezing those accounts in Macau has reportedly caused severe pain among the North's ruling elite. They wouldn't come back to the six-party talks unless the United States agreed to discuss the freeze. Washington agreed, and the special Treasury department team has now arrived in Beijing to talk about it with a special North Korean delegation. Now, we have six-party talks on nuclear disarmament, with bilateral money laundering talks on the sidelines.
Beneath the Symbol of Unity
It's never going to be easy when dealing with North Korea. And while the six-party talks appear a symbol of unity against nuclear proliferation on the surface, underneath there are varying levels of urgency, patience or tolerance.
China and South Korea are happy for this to move slowly -- they have no appetite for severe sanctions that might cause North Korea to collapse. Deep animosity toward the North has Japan wanting to push even harder than the United States (which will just give the North a chance to accuse Japan of being an American puppet). And the Russians are so annoyed with the United States on other issues that they are holding back on strong condemnations of North Korea.
Hill gave some final advice to reporters as the formal talks got underway: Don't stand in the subfreezing weather or huddle together in the hotel lobby. Go out and do some holiday shopping. This could take a little while.