In the Middle East, New Partnerships, Old Problems
JERUSALEM, March 28, 2007 — -- This morning, the Israeli newspapers recognized the limited achievements of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit.
In biweekly meetings, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will discuss technical issues and confidence-building measures instead of the weighty matters of a final peace settlement. Rice wanted to start talking about the details of the Palestinian state, but the Israelis refused.
Despite that, there is a feeling here that this is an important moment, and that the Saudis are emerging as leader of the moderate Arab Sunni world and are exercising new influence.
The Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab issues will dominate this week's Arab League Summit in Riyadh -- not Iraq or Iran's nuclear ambition. The Saudi Initiative of 2002 is expected to be the center of discussion and is expected to be reconfirmed, without significant changes.
In essence, the initiative offers full normalization of ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors, in return for a full withdrawal to the borders of June 1967 as well as the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
The Israelis have issued qualified support for the document, which was rejected out of hand by Ariel Sharon when it was first adopted. Olmert refers today to "positive elements" in the plan.
All Israelis, however, reject one clause concerning refugees. The refugee section is based on a clause in U.N. Resolution 194, which has historically been interpreted as the "right of return." This is a so-called red line for the Jewish state, as it implies a mass return of refugees to Israel and the demographic demise of a Jewish majority.
Today's Israeli papers contain interesting snippets. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has taken with him to Riyadh, the first Israeli journalist to visit the Kingdom, Yedioth Ahronoth's Orly Azulai. The same paper refers to secret talks between Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia on the refugee issue.
Talks allegedly are based on a plan to compensate the Palestinian refugees with billions of dollars, and to restrict their "return" to the future Palestinian state, not to Israeli proper.
There is also talk of the formation of Israeli-Saudi committees to develop some of the ideas in the Saudi Initiative. It is commonly accepted that Olmert met with King Abdullah about six months ago in Jordan. This level of exchange between Israel and the Kingdom is significant.
The Saudis' motivation to emerge from the diplomatic shadows is connected with the looming threat of a resurgent Iran. All moderate Arab states fear this new Shia power in the region. It is focusing their minds on the need to fix the Israeli-Palestinian problem, and thereby diffuse the issue that acts as a recruiting agent for so much of the radicalism within their own states.
In recognition of this new moderate bloc, Ban has confirmed the possibility of a summit between the international quartet and leading Arab Sunni states: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and The United Arab Emirates.
Despite the weary pessimism about the chances of a new peace process, new relationships and dialogues are being formed. It is, at least, an important moment in the Middle East.