France Goes to the Polls -- What Will the Contenders Offer the World?

April 20, 2007 — -- After 11 years in power, French President Jacques Chirac is set to leave office in May, and the attention of international policymakers has turned to what France's global outlook might be under his potential successors.

In recent years France's position on the international stage has been marked by Chirac's very public opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq, and at home by widespread anti-Americanism.

Some observers speak of a recent rapprochement between France and the United States, pointing to diplomatic cooperation over last year's war in Lebanon and ongoing military cooperation in Afghanistan. Yet the fallout over Iraq persists.

As the nation prepares for this weekend's first round of voting, this question emerges: Would any of the election front-runners work to repair transatlantic relations? What are their positions on other international issues?

The outcome of this year's election looks unpredictable, but most observers agree that only three of the 12 candidates are serious runners: socialist Ségolène Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy on the right, and centrist Francois Bayrou.

Common ground exists between the candidates. All three main contenders have said their priority will be ensuring that France reclaims its central role in the European Union. All declare themselves opposed to military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

All are in favor of tougher sanctions against the Sudanese government if it continues to oppose the deployment of U.N. peacekeepers.

All demand that China improves its human rights record if the European arms embargo is to be lifted.

And all three take a cautious line on U.S. plans to install missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, insisting the proposals be considered by Europe as a whole, and not just individual countries.

That said, foreign policy has not featured prominently in the campaign. Yet if the socialist and conservative front-runners go head to head in the second round, observers believe French voters will be offered a meaningful choice between two very different views of the world.

Maintaining the Status Quo

Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal is seen as coming from the traditional mold of the French left: suspicious of economic competition and free trade, and suspicious of American power. Royal has made it clear that she is no fan of the White House. A planned visit to the United States last year was canceled after she made it known she did not want to meet any members of the current administration.

When international affairs have been featured in her campaign, it's been for all the wrong reasons. Trips to the Middle East, China and Canada involved much-publicized gaffes that resulted in a fall in the polls and the impression that foreign policy was not Royal's strong suit.

She famously declared that Iran should not be allowed a civilian missile program, seeming to forget that the Nonproliferation Treaty allows for such a program. A trip to the Middle East appeared designed to please everybody. In Beirut, Royal said she would talk to Hamas leaders and called Israeli military overflights a "provocation." In Israel she described the flights as justified by legitimate security concerns.

Her perceived shortcomings in foreign affairs mean that the French expect a President Royal to rely heavily on her foreign minister. Her allies in the Socialist Party who could fill that role are old hands in the foreign-policy arena, and include former Foreign Minister Hubert -- he coined the word "hyperpower" at the end of last century to describe America's preponderance -- and former Foreign Ministry Chief of Staff Jean-Louis Bianco.

If Royal wins at the polls, France will get its first female head of state, but it probably won't mean a break with French foreign policy.

The Modernizing Outsider

The front-runner throughout most of the campaign has been Nicolas Sarkozy of the ruling center-right party. He has presented himself as an outsider in the French political establishment, and able to take a fresh approach that looks beyond the traditional French political model for solutions to the problems France has. He has also argued for change in French policy overseas. He recently called French foreign policy in Africa over the last 20 years "wrong."

Sarkozy disagrees with the official U.S. position on Turkey's application for EU membership. Unlike the Bush administration, he fiercely opposes it.

Yet in contrast to Royal, and indeed all French presidential candidates since Valerie Giscard d'Estaing, Sarkozy is an Atlanticist. He openly speaks of his admiration for the United States, and critics have branded him "an American neoconservative with a French passport."

Some of his own campaign staff worry that he is too pro-American. Although he has opposed the Iraq War, he has voiced criticism of the way France has handled itself in the run-up to the invasion.

He is also seen as a vocal supporter of Israel. He has taken a relatively hard line against Hamas and Hezbollah, and against Iran's nuclear program, going further than most French politicians in refusing to completely rule out the threat of military action. Unlike the other front-runners, he says he would be willing to back sanctions against Tehran without U.N. approval.

Sarkozy has re-emphasized the traditional French view that it remains an important power with a universal message and a vital role to play in the world. This position in the world, according to Sarkozy, is threatened by France's refusal to move with the times. His rhetoric has noticeably softened as the election nears, but he remains the candidate standing for a change in the way France sees the rest of the world, and the most likely to repair his country's relations with the United States.

The 'Third Man'

Polls have shown that centrist Francois Bayrou's electoral platform of bridging left and right has met with considerable success: The so-called "third man" of French politics has closed the gap on the two front-runners, with some surveys predicting an 18 percent share of the vote.

Bayrou has taken a tough line against the Sudanese government over the Darfur crisis, insisting that new and far-ranging sanctions be imposed immediately, as well as judicial measures against high-ranking members of the Khartoum regime.

He has said he believes military strikes against Iran would backfire by rallying the Iranian people behind the regime and by "plunging the whole Middle East into chaos." In any case, Bayrou believes the American public does not wish for any more foreign adventures.

Yet the likelihood of a President Bayrou taking office next month seems slim. Most analysts believe he is unlikely to defeat either Sarkozy or Royal in the first round and thereby make it through to the runoff in May.

It seems the second round will be contested by the candidates from the left and the right, Royal and Sarkozy. But French presidential elections have a history of throwing up surprises. Although unlikely that far-right nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen will make it through to the second round as he did in the 2002 race, it can't be ruled out. One thing is for certain: It would not be good for France's image overseas if Le Pen made it to the second round again.