Poland Prepares for Early Elections

WARSAW, Poland, Sept. 11, 2007 — -- Poland's Parliament voted to dissolve itself last week, forcing a new election in October, two years ahead of schedule. It was a surprising fracture in a government that took power with so much optimism.

Two years ago Poles elected Lech Kaczynski as their president. In parliamentary elections just days before, the Law and Justice party won a majority of votes, and voters were hardly bothered by the fact that its leader was Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Lech's twin brother.

Law and Justice had won enough votes to form a coalition government so Jaroslaw Kaczynski became prime minister and Poland ended up with a pair of twins holding the two top posts in the country. To many Poles, this was an embarrassment they tried to cover up with humor and jokes. But to an equal number of their compatriots, this was no laughing matter. They believed the Kaczynskis could rid Poland of remnants of its communist past and make it more just socially.

Right from the outset, the twins managed to polarize public opinion. And they have been doing so for two years, helping create a rift within Polish society not seen since the fall of communism in 1989.

The Kaczynskis were close associates of Solidarity leader Lech Walesa and in the 1980s contributed to the downfall of the communist state. Their credentials may seem impeccable, but as Walesa once observed, "They're great at destruction, but they're bad news otherwise. I had to get rid of them."

Now, two years on, this destructive streak may have caught up with the Kaczynskis. The Cabinet fell Friday just after the parliament dissolved itself under pressure from opposition parties. Poland will hold new parliamentary elections Oct. 21 and the campaign has just been launched.

Alexander Kwasniewski, ex-president and now the leader of the Democratic Left, calls this, "The most severe crisis in Poland since the fall of communism in 1989."

During his nearly two years in office, Prime Minister Kaczynski was accused of trying intensely to turn back the clock on Poland's hard-won democracy. Public television is now under his party's control, laws are often accused of being applied indiscriminately, there are allegations of the government trying to influence sovereign courts and many opposition politicians and journalists feel they are being spied on and their phones are tapped.

It may seem ironic that at the time of Solidarity, both Kaczynskis fought for civic liberties side by side with Walesa. However, as sociologist Marcin Bukowski observes, "He [Jaroslaw Kaczynski] truly believes he's doing this for the good of the nation and all means justify the end of ridding Poland of evil. The problem is that evil is different things to different people."

After the beginning of democracy in Poland in 1989, many of the fallen communist elite used their connections, and often through illegal methods benefited from the changeover to a capitalist economy. Privatization of the economy was not free of corruption and suspect fortunes were made overnight.

Kaczynski tried to tap into these past injustices from the 1990s. Realistically there is little he can do. These "illegal connections" are almost impossible to trace in the Poland of today with its complex economy integrated within the European Union.

Nonetheless, Prime Minister Kaczynski was able to attract millions of voters by promising them a "Poland for everyone, not just for the rich." Kaczynski understands his electorate and knows that many are the underprivileged that never found a place for themselves in the new, capitalist Poland.

Observers say the government has thrived on mostly unproven allegations of improper connections between business and politicians. A recent arrest warrant for Ryszard Krauze, one of Poland's richest businessmen, fits the populist bill perfectly. But as Robert Kutz, a stockbroker, puts it, "Poland is the largest economy in central Europe and enjoys an over 6 percent annual growth. We cannot afford to have Kaczynski undermine our economy and have the achievements of the whole nation thrown out the window. We must vote him out of office."

The Polish economy got a huge boost when Poland joined the EU in 2004, yet both Kaczynski brothers are wary of the EU. They fear German economic supremacy and are doing their best to convince Poles that German and Polish interests don't converge.

This in spite of the fact that up until the Kaczynskis took power, Germany was Poland's closest ally in the EU and the most vocal advocate of Poland's accession to the EU.

The Kaczynskis promote the idea of a Poland whose interests are at risk and enemies must be named both domestically and abroad. They have managed to create an atmosphere of distrust and suspicion among many Poles. The use of the state apparatus for their partisan means is commonplace.

One of the final nails in the coalition government: when Prime Minister Kaczynski's government used one of the secret service agencies to organize a provocation against another politician, a deputy prime minister, belonging to one of the two coalition parties. When discovered, this unprecedented move caused the breakup of the coalition and Law and Justice was left on its own with a minority in parliament.

With Prime Minister Kaczynski's support, the parliament voted to dissolve itself. It's a risky gamble on his part, but if successful it may pay off with his party winning a majority of the 460 parliament seats. That would allow him to govern comfortably without having to go into coalition with any other political groups.

Kaczynski's Law and Justice party is now braced for what will be a tough and no doubt brutal campaign primarily against the liberal and reformist Civic Platform, the main opposition party.

The Kaczynskis and their political partners have lowered standards of democratic conduct to a level when it will be difficult for any of the parties to run a pragmatic and issue-focused campaign. Now in its third day, the campaign is already all about personal attacks. Crucial domestic and foreign issues may have to give way to black PR.

Many Poles are frustrated with their rulers and angry that at a time when the country is prospering economically, political standards are so low that there is little chance of addressing what really matters.

The health-care system is in urgent need of reform, the road infrastructure needs a total overhaul and relations with Poland's neighbors must be improved.

"How can I know who to vote for if all I hear is slander and mutual abuse? I want to hear ideas and hear about prospects for my country," said medical student Marta Vogel.

Because most topical issues will have to take a back seat to bickering, it is most likely that the subject of Poland's military participation in Iraq and Afghanistan will be avoided at all cost. In a recent survey, more than 80 percent of Poles said they are against 2,000 servicemen fighting a war they believe is not theirs.

Twenty-two Polish soldiers have died and many more have returned home severely injured, but this military involvement is hardly ever debated. Most Polish politicians, regardless of political orientation, stress that Poland is a loyal ally of the United States and NATO and will not pull out at a time of need.

A similar fate awaits the debate over the planned deployment of the U.S. anti-missile defense system in Poland. The installation, on Poland's Baltic coast, would be part of a defense system intended to bring down possible missiles fired by rogue states.

Russia is adamant that such a military installation could be used against it and, if put in place, Russia would reprogram its missiles to take aim at targets in Poland. This threat has had its effect and 55 percent of Poles are against a foreign military installation on their soil.

"We had Soviet bases on our territory and now we'd have American ones? Who needs that? Why should we be a potential target?" said Maria Lasek from Redzikowo, the proposed site for the dislocation of U.S. missiles.

Counter to widespread criticism of the Law and Justice party and particularly its leader Prime Minister Kaczynski, both at home and within the EU, recent public opinion polls show that they still enjoy an approval rating of about 30 percent. Not all in Poland have benefited from the transformation and economic growth, and democratic ideals may not necessarily be on everyone's priority list. On top of that, Kaczynski enjoys a strong following among the ultra-Catholic, nationalist segment of the Polish population.

Civic Platform, the leading opposition party, records similar approval ratings, but its leader, Donald Tusk, is clearly uncomfortable fighting the uncompromising battle brought on by the Kaczynskis.

"Law and Justice is strong through Civic Platform's weakness," said commentator Mikolaj Lizut. Indeed, Civic Platform and the Democratic Left, the main opposition parties, have yet to find a way of dealing with the popular appeal of Law and Justice. With just less than six weeks till elections, they still seem unable to respond on Kaczynski's uncompromising style.

The current election campaign will be the fiercest one held in post-communist Poland — with much at stake. The outcome will determine whether Poland, after a two-year period of uncertainty, will return to its liberal democratic, Solidarity roots, or whether the Kaczynskis will strengthen their hold on power and offer Poland more shake-ups and populist demagogy.