India Nervously Watches Crisis Unfold in Pakistan

NEW DELHI, Nov. 13, 2007 — -- Despite the house arrest of a chief opposition leader and virtual martial law throughout Pakistan, India, the world's largest democracy, has reacted to emergency rule in neighboring Pakistan with one thought: Don't rock the boat.

For decades India was at the center of Pakistani politics. The two countries have fought three wars since they were violently divided 60 years ago, and they continue to fight a mostly low-intensity battle over the disputed Kashmir territories.

But today, as Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf keeps a tight lid on his country and prevents former prime minister Benazir Bhutto from leading a protest march, India is more than happy to stay virtually silent.

"It makes sense for India to take a low-key response," said C. Raja Mohan, a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and a columnist for the Indian Express. "Nobody's accusing India of fomenting trouble."

Right now India has perhaps its best relationship with Pakistan in decades. It has dedicated itself to working with Musharraf on creating a lasting peace. And there is a fear of the unknown — a post-Musharraf government could be even more unstable.

"There is nothing else that India can do" other than what it's doing, Mohan said.

No Judgement on Pakistan

For eight days after Musharraf imposed emergency rule, the Indian government said almost nothing.

"We regret the difficult times that Pakistan is passing through," read a foreign ministry statement released Nov. 3. "We trust that conditions of normalcy will soon return permitting Pakistan's transition to stability and democracy to continue."

A week later, Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon finally spoke to reporters on board a plane carrying the prime minister on a trip to Moscow.

"Pakistan is in a state of transition and we would like to see a Pakistan at peace with itself," he said. But he wouldn't actually judge Musharraf, saying, "It's for the Pakistani people to decide who should rule them."

But some critics say the Indian government's hands-off policy is "fundamentally flawed."

"We have painted ourselves into a corner. There isn't much we can do because we've put our eggs into a single basket. We've been saying Musharraf is the only person who can create peace. We've created no alternative in Pakistan," said Ajai Sahni, the executive director of Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi.

Musharraf, Sahni argues, is "very much part of the problem."

But he says the Indian government has embraced an old Indian acronym when dealing with the military leader: TINA, which stands for "there is no alternative."

In the Times of India today, columnist Sindhu Manjesh criticized the government for not standing up for democracy and therefore ignoring the best chance to create a long-term peace with Pakistan.

"In Pakistan the Indian government is willing to back a military dictatorship in the hope it will control terrorism in our backyard. It has no qualms in playing footsie with a ruthless military regime in Myanmar in return for energy supplies and help in tackling insurgents in the northeast," he wrote. "The day we stop standing up for democracy — especially in the neighborhood — is when our interests will be compromised."

Fear of Instability, Terror Attacks

Above all else, Indian interests are focused on preventing the instability in Pakistan from spreading into its cities in the form of terrorist attacks, especially in Kashmir. The two countries have been in peace talks for three years, and attacks across the border have fallen significantly during that time.

"More practical steps have been taken for India and Pakistan in the last three years than have been taken the last 50 years. … The relationship has never been as good as it's been the last few years," Mohan said.

The Indian army appears a little more concerned than does the foreign ministry. It has stepped up patrols along the border and publicly worries about an activation of Pakistani sleeper cells already in India.

"We are concerned about what is happening in our neighborhood," Indian Army vice-chief Lt. Gen. M.L. Naudi told The Times of India. "We are taking steps to ensure we are not surprised."

He said soldiers had already stopped three attacks in Kashmir in the last few days.

Despite military worries, most in India believe that a quiet response can only help keep things stable.

"India will deal with whoever is in power. We have no choice," Mohan said.

As a staff editorial in the Times of India put it today, "India would much rather have even a military ruler at the helm in Pakistan if the alternative meant chaos or, worse, a fully Talibanized, nuclear-armed Pakistan."