Iraq Trend Hopeful, but Dangers Lurk in Numbers

BAGHDAD, Dec. 19, 2007 — -- It's a long, detailed report that has more than 61 pages and touches on everything from violence to the price of food.

"Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq" is the latest Defense Department effort to tell Congress and the American public about the half a trillion dollar effort to stabilize Iraq.

The report is generally optimistic and the trends are clear. It's getting better. There is less violence, more electricity and the economy is improving. The military calls these measurements a "matrix." It's the military's way to use numbers to determine how it is improving life in Iraq. This month's numbers are better than last month and much better than a year ago.

But, each number only tells part of the story.

The number of attacks, car bombs and murders are down. There are many reasons for the change. In most areas of Baghdad, Shiite and Sunni Muslims once lived next to each other in peace. After two years of sectarian violence and ethnic cleansing, many areas of Baghdad are now segregated. Tens of thousands have left the city or moved out of mixed neighborhoods. In some areas more than 40 percent of the homes are contested because the owners have fled out of fear of their neighbors, and squatters chased from other sections of the city have taken over their homes.

Baghdad has been cut into safe zones defined by their sect and shielded by blast walls or protected by militias. Inside these sanctuaries, some neighborhood numbers say it is safer. But crossing the city can be dangerous. Rashid is a 67-year-old grandfather who lives in East Baghdad. His son and 3-year-old grandson live in the West. He hasn't seen his grandson in two years. Numbers can't tell his story.

Ali lives in northwest Baghdad. His dentist is in the city center. It's been three years since his last appointment. Getting your teeth cleaned in Baghdad can be more than uncomfortable. It can cost you your life.

The United States received essential help of Sunni tribes in pushing the insurgents out of Sunni areas. But the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri Kamel al-Maliki has balked at helping to arm them or incorporating them into the nation's police force for fear they could later turn on Shiites.

Electricity production is up 14 percent. Some areas of Baghdad even get 24 hours of power. Many, however, get only six. The poor areas get less. There is a complicated system of "influence" that diverts electricity from one area to another. Number of megawatts or hours of continuous power don't mean much in many parts of the city.

The report says inflation has slowed to 4.2 percent. Before the war Mustafa paid 85 cents for a gallon of gas. Today he pays $2.20 per gallon. Statistics don't mean much for taxi drivers and their customers who have to pay three or four times as much for gas.

The report says unemployment remains high at 17.6 percent. The reality is much more complicated. There is no mechanism for determining who is employed and who is not. It's an underground economy with little regulation. Those working for the government, for militias or the United States would risk death to report their income. U.S military officers often claim that up to 40 percent or 60 percent of the Iraqis in their areas don't have jobs. Some Iraqis won't admit they have a job. They could get robbed or kidnapped and held for ransom.

This doesn't mean life is not better in Iraq. Raymond Odierno, commanding general for Multi-National Corps in Iraq, told ABC he's encouraged. He travels the streets of Baghdad three or four times a week. He sees more shops open, more schools and more children playing soccer.

"We are beginning to see the signs of a return to normalcy," Odierno said.

Hearing the sunny numbers in the Pentagon report, a lieutenant colonel in Baghdad asked, "Does this mean I can go home now?" The question was more of a joke than a request. He knew that, as Odierno added, "There's still a tremendous amount of work to be done."

While the lieutenant colonel couldn't go home just yet, Rashid recently tested the optimism of his city by making the trip across town to his son's home. It was his grandson's third birthday party.