Putin Reportedly Set to Oust Prime Minister

Feb. 20, 2008— -- An article in today's edition of the influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazetta caused confusion among observers of the country's political scene. ''The special operation for the current president's move to the White House [in central Moscow] has reached its final stage," the newspaper claims. "It appears that Vladimir Putin has decided to reshape the structure of the Russian government before he heads the Cabinet as prime minister."

There have been countless rumors that President Putin will remain active in politics after his second term in office ends following Russia's presidential elections on March 2. In October, he himself even hinted at the pro-Kremlin United Russia's Party Congress that he could run for parliament, a springboard for a possible top government post. But this is the first time a serious source — and most media in Russia can be considered insiders — has spelled out Putin's possible future role.

Difficult to Understand

What baffles Russian analysts is why, at this stage, Putin would need to play more intricate political games and get rid of his uncharismatic and bland prime minister. After all, during the eight years of his two terms in office, the Russian public has given Putin an almost complete license to do what he pleases. The future looks secure both for him and his country. The outcome of presidential elections, only a little over a week away, is almost certain: Putin's nominated candidate will surely win. Can there be any substance to Nevavisimaya's confident allegations that the ouster of the current prime minister and his Cabinet is only days away?

Masha Lipman, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow, told ABC News, "Four years ago the Cabinet was asked to resign just before the elections, but then it was clear Putin wanted to get rid of then Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. Today's case baffles me and I find it difficult to interpret. Putin is in a position where he can do what he wants and when he wants and won't be held accountable. Normally a new Cabinet would be formed after the elections. I have no idea why now."

Other Russian analysts ABC News approached were reluctant to speculate. Putin enjoys such complete power and influence over his subjects that even the question of what he may do after his presidency seems to be taboo.

An anonymous high-ranking official approached by the Reuters News Agency said, "It's difficult to see the logic behind this." Also he asked, "Why now?"

Nezavisimaya Gazetta attributes its information to "several high-up sources" and predicts that the current Cabinet headed by 66-year-old Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov will resign before the March 2 elections and perhaps as soon as in the next few days.

The paper leaves sources unnamed. "Our correspondent was told by Ministry of Health and Social Development staff that at a morning meeting they had been informed the government was expected to resign." The article goes on to say, "Our sources in the Russian White House said that the decision about the government's resignation had already been taken. It will probably happen after the official visit of the South Korean Prime Minister; that means after February 26th."

Zubkov On the Way Out

Either way, according to the paper's sources, Zubkov will leave his post before March 2.

Nezavisimaya's claim adds another round to the Russian game of political musical chairs. It started in September when Putin nominated Zubkov, an almost completely unknown agricultural economist, as prime minister. At the time, many observers characterized Zubkov as "disposable" and a "stepping stone" for Putin to take Zubkov's place soon after he is free of his presidential duties. Only last Thursday, at his annual news conference, Putin played down Zubkov's status by claiming he was in office just to "Secure stability and effectiveness during the pre-election period — and this has been achieved."

If Nezavisimaya's sources are right and Zubkov is asked to resign, his comrades will not let him down and his services are likely to be rewarded. Just over a month ago, a spokesman for Gazprom, the Russian oil and gas giant, said outright that Gazprom would like to see Zubkov chair its board of directors — one of the most powerful jobs in the country, albeit totally subjugated to the Kremlin.

And why would there be a vacancy at Gazprom? The reason is simple enough: Dimitry Medvedev, who had been chairman of the board of directors since June 2002, was named by Putin as his favored successor to the Russian presidency. With Putin's endorsement, no serious countercandidates and a popularity rating of close to 70 percent already, it is almost unthinkable that Medvedev could fail being elected Russia's new president.

Today's article in the Nevavisimaya Gazetta may have broken the official silence on Putin's future, but most of Moscow buzzes with speculations anyway — quietly, but intensely. Meanwhile, one wing of the so-called White House in central Moscow, the one that houses the prime minister's office, is closed for renovation. No doubt Russia will have a new prime minister. But when? And will it be Putin? The wait will soon be over.