Peace at a Price in Lebanon Election

AMMAN, Jordan, May 25, 2008— -- In less than three weeks. Lebanon has moved from the brink of civil war to an all-out party.

The man they're celebrating is army Commander Michel Suleiman, who was elected president today, breaking a long and violent political crisis.

But peace and a presidency came at a price: a shift in Lebanese political power toward a coalition led by Hezbollah, a political party considered a terrorist group in the West.

With his portrait hanging all around Beirut, President Suleiman is the man of the hour. He fills a post that was left empty during an ongoing disagreement between the Lebanese government and an opposition led by Hezbollah.

Suleiman, respected by both camps for his military leadership and political neutrality, has been the clear frontrunner for months. When Lebanon's last president left office in November the government and the opposition were at a political impasse, postponing the presidential poll again and again -- a total of 19 times.

Then came the gunfire of clashes that killed more than 60 people. The violence erupted when the Lebanese government made a bold move against Hezbollah, challenging its security apparatus and threatening to dismantle its private telecommunications network, critical to its military operations.

Hezbollah and its allies pushed back hard, turning the political battle into a street fight. With a clearly stronger force, Hezbollah-led militias subdued government supporters and took over key neighborhoods of Beirut. Gunmen set up roadblocks and check points, restricting movement through the city, shutting down the airport and closing some land routes to Syria.

The grievances were political, but the fighting took on a sectarian tone -- Sunni vs. Shiite, Shiite vs. Druze. Ten days ago Ahmed Musalli, a professor at the American University of Beirut, described Lebanon as standing at "a dangerous crossroads between war and peace."

At the peak of the tension, the Arab League stepped in, hoping to break up the fight. After a delegation from Qatar took the lead in negotiations, Lebanese leaders flew to Doha to discuss the country's political future. They settled on a deal: an end to violence and a set of significant changes in the Lebanese power structure.

Suleiman, the favorite on both sides, would be elected president and Lebanon's electoral map would be redrawn. The opposition, led by Hezbollah, would get 11 out of 30 seats in the cabinet -- enough to veto any major government decision, such as a potential move against Hezbollah's weapons.

"The deal was definitely a win for Hezbollah," said Judith Palmer-Harik, a professor and expert on Hezbollah at Metn University in Lebanon.

"They can block any movement from the Cabinet that they see as detrimental to their interests," Palmer-Harik said. "In no way is this new government going to be able to implement the U.N. resolutions calling for the disarming of militias, in this case Hezbollah."

Doha Deal Shifts Power, Mood in Lebanon

With the agreement signed, peace was restored and the political deadlock was over. The election of Suleiman as president officially marked the end of the crisis. A relieved euphoria swept over Beirut, Lebanon's stock market rallied, and fears of civil war were abandoned.

"People weren't expecting this kind of quick solution and one that would solve so many things at once. ... They went from one extreme to another extreme within two and a half weeks," said Mohamed Bazzi, an expert with the Council on Foreign Relations who was in Beirut throughout the crisis.

For the opposition, the shift in the balance of power was long overdue. During the 18-month crisis Shiite ministers were boycotting the cabinet, leaving that sect without a voice in government -- violating the spirit of Lebanon's constitution, which guarantees a place for each religious group.

"The balance of power shift has been going on for the past few months, but in the past two weeks it's become official," said Rami Khouri, director of Beirut's Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy. "Now Hezbollah has more than a third of cabinet seats. The government will have to achieve decision making by consensus."

Bazzi of the Council on Foreign Relations says that in integrating the two sides in a new government the deal was a qualified success.

"It's a good agreement but it doesn't solve all of Lebanon's problems. Hezbollah's weapons, the U.N. tribunal [over the death of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri] ... those are all still ongoing issues," Bazzi said.

From those issues could grow a future round of unrest.

"Once this initial sense of euphoria dies down and we get to the thorny issues some of that anger could emerge again," Bazzi said.

America's Rivals in Power?

President Bush congratulated Suleiman on his election today, praising the leader and hoping for "an era of political reconciliation to the benefit of all Lebanese."

Heading into that era, the Bush administration will have to deal with the fact of a greater political role for Hezbollah, which is considered in the United States as a terrorist group that works with the backing of Syria and Iran.

"Lebanon represents the front line of an alliance between Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Iran and others in standing against U.S. policy for the region," said Musalli, a Beirut-based professor who specializes in Islamic movements.

Palmer-Harik, who authored "Hezbollah: the Changing Face of Terrorism," has tracked the organization as it has built greater popular and political support.

"The U.S. always sees Hezbollah as the agent of Iran and Syria, but over the past years it has won a great deal of independence from their foreign backers," Palmer-Harik said.

The new president himself is seen as neutral, but he enjoys strong support from Hezbollah. During the clashes in early May, Suleiman was criticized for standing by while opposition forces overpowered the government.

"You just have to take it for granted that if he was not seen as supportive of [Hezbollah] he would not have been acceptable," Palmer-Harik said.

"The hopes of the Hariri forces [supporters of the former prime minister] and others is that he assumes a fair role and this is very possible as long as the 'resistance' isn't touched," she said, using Hezbollah's term for its military branch.

"He's generally seen as a non-political person who is trying to be the president of all Lebanese," said Rami Khouri of the Issam Fares Institute. "If there is a slight tilt, it's toward the [Hezbollah-led] opposition, because they are now the stronger group."

As a new president takes office he will have to juggle the demands, conflicts, and interests that engulf all of Lebanon's factions. With memories of civil violence less than three weeks old, the stakes could not be higher.