EU to Consider Russian Sanctions

Aug. 28, 2008 — -- The Council of Europe has scheduled a Sept. 1 summit meeting in Brussels to discuss whether Russia's attack on Georgia warrants action from the European Union, including the outside possibility of sanctions.

Some member states would not like to see Russia's attack on a sovereign country go unpunished, while others would rather limit their chastising of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to harsh rhetoric and continue with business as usual.

French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner threatened sanctions against Russia only yesterday, but observers find it hard to define measures that could hurt Russia and not backfire on the EU itself. The EU and Russia have by now become so economically inter-related that Russia is likely to get away relatively unscathed.

The varying stances on how to handle the situation pit some of the EU's newer members against several old union states, all of whom could be impacted by a souring in relations with Russia, which controls much of the area's access to oil and gas.

"Europe must wake up if it wants to avoid another tragedy in the future," Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said last night in an interview with Polish TVN24. "Russians had been planning an aggression for a long time."

Saakashvili rejected Russian allegations that the conflict was inspired by the U.S., after Putin recently suggested that the U.S. in effect armed and trained the Georgian army, possibly as a means of manipulating the upcoming presidential election.

"Putin and his KGB buddies use lies as a means of communication," Saakashvili said.

In the interview, Saakashvili thanked viewers for Polish support and said that, "Georgia will never forget what Poland is doing for us."

The trouble for Poland is that many of the old member states of the European Union are also unlikely to forget, and forgive, Poland's involvement. For some of the EU's leading states, France and Germany in particular, a confrontation with Russia is an option they would prefer to avoid at all costs.

There are likely to be strong words, perhaps some assurances for Ukraine, which feels particularly threatened by Moscow's new dynamism, perhaps a suspension of ongoing EU–Russia talks. But little more is likely -- and Russia knows this.

Russian foreign minister Sergay Lavrov told western journalists on Tuesday, "I don't think we should be afraid of isolation, I don't believe that isolation is really looming… I think we are not in for any freezing in our relations."

Poland, Baltic States Criticize France, Germany

For the first time after its expansion to the East in 2003, the EU is faced with a situation when the new member states, Soviet satellites during the cold war, are vehemently encouraging the Union to take a tough stance toward Russia -- sanctions included.

"In dealing with Russia you have to be tough and rough," said Polish President Lech Kaczynski in a recent interview. After the Russian incursion into Georgia, Kaczynski and the presidents of other new EU members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia promptly flew to Tbilisi to express their "firm support" for Georgia and its president.

Poland and the three Baltic states openly criticized France President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel for their initial "soft, kid-glove" treatment of Russia after its troops entered Georgia. In the past weeks they have been calling for a hard-hitting and unified EU policy. And they are the first to take credit for the EU's now more resolute stance.

Oil Access Key Factor

The West is raising alarm over human suffering in Georgia. The Kremlin cites Moscow's concern for Russian minorities in the Georgian autonomous republics of North Osetia and Abhazia as reason for "armed intervention."

But what is ultimately at stake, particularly for Central European countries, is access to oil and gas.

Georgia is the "Southern Corridor" for oil in the east and the Caspian Sea basin. It is transit territory for the only possible pipeline route that can bypass Russia or Iran. If Russia controls Georgia it controls all east-west pipelines and potentially has a stranglehold on Europe.

Merkel has said Germany believes Russia will stick to its contracts to deliver oil to Europe despite a threat of EU sanctions, a government spokesman said on Friday.

Good relations with Russia, such as Germany enjoys, allow for greater energy security. The Germans and Russians are close to constructing a direct pipeline from Russia to Germany. It would run on the bed of the Baltic Sea and bypass Ukraine, the three Baltic states and Poland. For those countries keeping the Georgian route open, and independent of the Russians, is key -- particularly as the prospect of them improving relations with Russia is remote.

Pawel Zaleski, an independent member of the Polish parliament, told ABC News, "Russia is developing gas projects creating instruments for possibly blackmailing not only Poland but also other Central European countries. By building pipelines bypassing Poland, Russia is preparing for the future and to influence policies of countries like Poland. It is clear that we don't want to be confronted with such a threat."

New States Depend on Oil

The irony is that it is the new member states, those who call for a more confrontational approach toward Russia, that stand to lose most if European relations with Russia deteriorate significantly. They are almost totally reliant on Russian gas and oil supplies and have many trade interests with Russia, and their economies are a lot less robust than those of the more affluent, older EU members.

It is also the new EU states that have been accusing Russia of trying to drive a wedge into the EU, to cause conflict within the EU and to fragment it politically.

The Georgian crisis and the vocal reaction of the new EU members may have just played into Russia's hand and helped the division. With no unified foreign policy, some of the countries are at loggerheads over how to react to the conflict. Slovakia, and to a lesser extent Hungary, are openly supporting Russia, Germany and France are careful to protect their energy and trade interests and are expected to mitigate the confrontational tone that, no doubt, Poland will try to promote at the Brussels summit.

From among the "Old Union" states, the U.K. may be the only supporter of the hard-line approach. But as Ian Kearns from the British Institute for Public Policy Research observed in an interview with Polish Gazeta Wyborcza, "We can be tough in our rhetoric but have no real means to support it with concrete actions. There is always Germany, very reliant on Russian energy sources. As long as the EU lacks a common energy policy, Russia will try to divide it, often successfully."

Five years ago the E.U. took aboard new members that had previously been countries dominated by the Soviet Union, or in the case of the three Baltic states, part of the USSR. With the expansion the EU acquired a heritage and experience brought to it by those countries -- a distrust and fear of Russia.

Many politicians in the area express frustration with what they see as the West's naive approach to the Kremlin. Many, particularly President Lech Kaczynski of Poland, feel it is almost their mission to lecture the rest of Europe on how to deal with the big neighbor in the East.

"From today's pragmatic point of view this saber rattling doesn't serve our interests. Russia is a reality we're faced with and must learn to live with," Estonian political analyst Artur Berendsen told ABC News. "On the other hand, for the sake of the future we must stop Russia's appetite before it's too late and all its neighbors are threatened. And now may be the time to act decisively"

The Georgian crisis prompted the new states to be even more outspoken in the hope that their chance to be proven right is now. The EU's Brussels summit on Monday is a gamble for them -- either their voices will be heeded and the EU will adopt a more unified policy toward Russia, or Russia's critics risk to anger the more conciliatory EU members, sour their relations with Moscow further and face the Kremlin's wrath in even greater isolation.

A Russian columnist noted recently, "Either they prefer to drink Georgian wine or be heated by Russian gas. The choice is theirs."