2004 Poll: Iraqis Report Better Postwar Life

Mar. 15, 2004 -- A year after the bombs began to fall, Iraqis express ambivalence about the U.S.-led invasion of their country, but not about its effect: Most say their lives are going well and have improved since before the war, and expectations for the future are very high.

Worries exist — locally about joblessness, nationally about security — boosting desires for a "single strong leader," at least in the short term. Yet the first media-sponsored national public opinion poll in Iraq also finds a strikingly optimistic people, expressing growing interest in politics, broad rejection of political violence, rising trust in the Iraqi police and army, and preference for an inclusive and democratic government.

More Iraqis say the United States was right than say it was wrong to lead the invasion, but by just 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent expressing no opinion — hardly the unreserved welcome some U.S. policymakers had anticipated.

As many Iraqis say the war "humiliated" Iraq as say it "liberated" the country; more oppose than support the presence of coalition forces there now (although most also say they should stay for the time being); and relatively few express confidence in those forces, in the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority or in the Iraqi Governing Council.

These results are from an ABCNEWS poll conducted among a random, representative sample of 2,737 Iraqis in face-to-face interviews across the country from Feb. 9-28. Part of ABC's weeklong series, Iraq: Where Things Stand, marking the first anniversary of the war, the poll was co-sponsored with ABC by the German broadcasting network ARD, the BBC and the NHK in Japan, with sampling and field work by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England.

The poll finds that 78 percent of Iraqis reject violence against coalition forces, although 17 percent — a sixth of the population — call such attacks "acceptable." One percent, for comparison, call it acceptable to attack members of the new Iraqi police.

There are huge differences in these and many other questions between Arab Iraqis, who account for 79 percent of the population, and the Kurdish minority (17 percent). Forty percent of Arabs say it was right for the United States to invade; that soars to 87 percent of Kurds. Just one-third of Arabs say the war liberated rather than humiliated Iraq; it's 82 percent of Kurds. Thirty percent of Arabs support the presence of coalition forces, again compared with 82 percent of Kurds. Positive views of the invasion also are held disproportionately in the south of the country, as well as in the Kurdish north.

Personal Lives

On a personal level, seven in 10 Iraqis say things overall are going well for them — a result that might surprise outsiders imagining the worst of life in Iraq today. Fifty-six percent say their lives are better now than before the war, compared with 19 percent who say things are worse (23 percent, the same). And the level of personal optimism is extraordinary: Seventy-one percent expect their lives to improve over the next year.

Again there are regional and ethnic differences. In the Kurdish north, 70 percent say their lives overall are better than before the war; in the south, 63 percent. That declines to 54 percent in the central region, and falls under half — to 46 percent — in the greater Baghdad area, home to more than a quarter of Iraqis.

Locally, unhappiness is highest by far with the availability of jobs (69 percent say it's bad) and the supply of electricity (64 percent negative). Local schools are rated positively (by 72 percent), and smaller majorities give positive ratings to the availability of basic household goods and the adequacy of local crime protection. About half give positive ratings to the availability of medical care, clean water and household goods beyond the basics, and to local government.

Iraqis divide in their rating of the local security situation now, but strikingly, 54 percent say security where they live is better now than it was before the war. However, for some, local security clearly is a great concern; 22 percent call it the single biggest problem in their lives, more than any other mention ("no job" is second, 12 percent). Local security concerns peak in greater Baghdad, where they're cited by 36 percent as the top problem, compared to a low of 8 percent in Kurdistan.

Notably, across the country, no more than 26 percent say any of these conditions are worse now than a year ago; in each about four in 10 or more say things are better; and in each sizable majorities — mostly three-quarters — expect things to improve over the next 12 months.

There's political danger, of course, if these expectations go unmet.

Security

While less of a local issue for many Iraqis, security at the national level is a vast concern; the public's top overall priority, by a huge margin, is "regaining public security in the country." Sixty-four percent give it "first priority" for the next 12 months; out of a dozen issues tested, no other even breaks into double digits.

Combining first, second and third priorities produces a more complete list: Eighty-five percent mention security in one of those slots; 55 percent, rebuilding the infrastructure; 30 percent, holding national elections; 30 percent, "ensuring that people can make a decent living," and about as many, "reviving the economy." Last on the list: "Dealing with members of the previous government," cited as a priority by only 2 percent.

*(Up to three answers accepted)

Coalition Forces

As noted, 51 percent oppose the presence of coalition forces — but that doesn't mean most want them withdrawn immediately, likely because of security concerns. Fifteen percent of Iraqis say the forces should leave the country now; by contrast, 36 percent say they should remain until a new government is in place; 18 percent, until security is restored.

Just over three-quarters of Iraqis — 77 percent — say they personally never have had any encounter with coalition forces. Those who've had such encounters divide on the experience: about half call it a positive encounter; half, negative.

Politics

Politically, the survey finds that Iraqis overwhelmingly want their nation to remain united and centralized — 79 percent say so, compared with 14 percent who prefer a federated group of regional states, and 4 percent who want the country broken into separate nations. Among Iraqi Kurds, federated regional states — but not fully independent ones — are preferred.

There is relatively little support for a religious theocracy — it's low on the list of preferred forms of government.

In one change from the first national poll in Iraq by Oxford Research International last fall, more now call for a "single strong Iraqi leader" — 47 percent say one will be needed a year from now, up from 27 percent previously. That's more than say "an Iraqi democracy" will be needed, now 28 percent (essentially unchanged).

This interest in a strong leader (not necessarily an undemocratic one) seems based in security concerns. In an open-ended follow-up, references to "freedom" dominate support for democracy, while those who express support for a single strong leader are more apt to cite the need for security and order in their country.

In another question, without a time frame mentioned, democracy wins more support than two other options — a strong leader, but one who rules "for life"; or an Islamic state. Forty-nine percent choose democracy, 28 percent a "strong leader" and 21 percent an Islamic state.

As noted, more Iraqis express interest in politics — 54 percent, up from 39 percent in November — and 31 percent say their interest in politics has increased in the past year, three times the number who say it's decreased. Women are more apt than men to express interest in politics, though it's up among both groups.

Fragmentation

But other results suggest a level of political fragmentation that may challenge the country's political development, and throws into some question the notion of early elections. Despite interest in a strong leader, six in 10 Iraqis can't name a single national leader they trust (though even more can't name one they specifically mistrust).

Sixty-one percent express little or no trust in political parties, and nearly seven in 10 don't identify themselves with any party. The only parties that emerge with more than minimal support are either Islamist or Kurdish; respondents named more than 25 individual parties, but most had less than 1 percent support. (All were volunteered in response to an open-ended question.)

Three-quarters say joining a political party is something they "would never, under any circumstances, do." Indeed, after decades of repression, more than a third, 36 percent, say that simply talking with other people about politics is something they would never do.

Choices also are fragmented when Iraqis are asked which national leader they "trust the most" — more than 40 individual answers, each with few mentions. Only five received mentions from more than 3 percent:

• Ibrahim Al-Jaaferi, 8 percent (main spokesman for the Islamic Dawa Party); • Massoud Barzani, 6 percent (leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party); • Jalal Talabani, 6 percent (leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan); • Sayyid Al-Sistani, 5 percent (the country's leading Shiite cleric, sometimes described as the most powerful man in Iraq); and • Adnan Pachachi, 4 percent (foreign minister in the government deposed by Saddam Hussein in 1968, he founded the Independent Democratic Movement last month.)

One figure, meanwhile, was cited by 10 percent as a leader they "don't trust at all" — Ahmed Chalabi, former leader of the London-based Iraqi National Congress, now a member of the Iraqi Governing Council.

Trust

In terms of confidence in institutions, the gainers, as noted, are the Iraqi police — 68 percent express trust in it, up from 45 percent in November — and the Iraqi army, with 56 percent trust, up from 39 percent in the fall.

Confidence (not necessarily in political terms) peaks at 70 percent for "religious leaders." No other institutions receive majority trust; notable are the IGC, at 39 percent; the CPA, at 28 percent; and the U.S. forces and U.K. forces, at 25 percent.

Model

Few Iraqis see non-Arab nations as a model for their country — just 6 percent cite the United States, 5 percent Japan — but many more want those nations to play a role in rebuilding Iraq. Among top mentions, 36 percent say the United States should play a role in rebuilding the country, 36 percent Japan, 22 percent the United Kingdom, 22 percent France and 17 percent Germany.

Again in terms of a model for the country, 24 percent say it doesn't need one. The only other mention above single digits is the United Arab Emirates, a primarily Sunni federation of largely independent city-states (it was cited by 26 percent of Sunnis compared with 15 percent of Shia Muslims, but was top-ranked, by far, in both groups).

Religion

In religious terms, 96 percent of Iraqis are Muslim. In this poll 40 percent identified themselves as Sunni Muslim, 33 percent as Shia and 23 percent did not cite an affiliation within Islam. Given the potential of sectarian strife and history of repression, there may be reluctance to discuss religious matters in Iraq; just 55 percent say they had even heard of "Iraq's religious leaders" in aggregate. Of those who say they had heard of them, 81 percent of Shia Muslims expressed confidence in these leaders, compared with 57 percent of Sunnis.

In another difference, 92 percent of Shiites prefer a unified Iraq with its central government in Baghdad, compared with two-thirds of Sunnis. And a quarter of Sunnis called attacks on coalition forces acceptable, compared with 11 percent of Shiites.

Demographics

The poll also paints a compelling demographic portrait of the Iraqi people. In just 20 percent of Iraqi households does the main breadwinner hold a full-time, outside job; 58 percent are self-employed. Average household income is the equivalent of $164 per month, for an average of eight people per household.

Eighty-one percent of households have a refrigerator; 44 percent, an air conditioner (the average daily high temperature in Baghdad in August is 108 degrees); 44 percent, a washing machine; 37 percent, a telephone; 21 percent, a still camera. There are disparities across regions, with the south of the country substantially poorer.

The poll was conducted among Iraqis age 15 and up; those under age 18 accounted for 10 percent of the total sample (their attitudes are not strikingly different from their elders'). Iraq is a young country: Sixty-six percent of Iraqis 15 and up are under age 35, compared with 36 percent of Americans age 15 and up.

Methodology

This poll was conducted for ABCNEWS, ARD, the BBC and NHK by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England. Interviews were conducted in person, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 2,737 Iraqis age 15 and up from Feb. 9-28. The results have a two-point error margin.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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