What Happens Now to the Party of God?

April 24, 2003 -- His fiery oratories, with their foreboding forecasts, cool bravado and moral edge, are the stuff that hefts sagging spirits and declining TV ratings across the Muslim world.

As the leader of Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based Shiite organization that boasts extensive social, political and militant wings, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah enjoys the sort of popularity and respect most Arab statesmen yearn for.

In troubling times, much of the Muslim world has looked to the charismatic 43-year-old Hezbollah secretary-general for guidance, hope and moral fortitude — the sort of things their political leaders seem increasingly incapable of providing.

With the fall of Saddam Hussein's reign in Iraq, Shiite pride appears to be on the rise, with nearly a million pilgrims flocking to the central Iraqi city of Karbala this week to mark Arbaiin, the end of the 40-day mourning for Imam Hussein, themartyred grandson of the Prophet Muhammad.

But while many are glad to see Saddam go, they are not comfortable with the U.S. presence in an Arab country. And so Nasrallah's Tuesday night speech was much awaited by his followers — and their monitors.

It was also his first public declaration since Saddam was ousted. In a speech delivered barely a week before the war in Iraq began, Nasrallah warned that bullets and bombers — not rice and roses — would greet U.S. troops in Iraq.

His latest pronouncement, delivered on the eve of the culmination of the Arbaiin observances, did not disappoint.

"Tomorrow will mark the beginning of the end of the American age in Iraq and the region," Nasrallah said in a televised address. "This is the truth that the upcoming years will prove, God willing."

But even as Nasrallah forecasts the end of the so-called American age, his organization's main backers have been busy adjusting to Washington's will.

After weeks of intense U.S. diplomatic heat, Syria — a Hezbollah supporter and the group's de facto landlord — has been "getting the message," in the words of President Bush.

"The Syrians clearly want to avoid any pretext for U.S. military action," said Vince Cannistraro, an ABCNEWS consultant and a former CIA counterterrorism chief. "Therefore, they are sealing the border and turning over wanted Iraqis in Syria."

And across the eastern Iraqi border, Iran — Hezbollah's principal financial backer and ideological parent — may be no friend of America's, but it has understandably no enthusiasm for taking on U.S. military might.

As old allies and fellow patrons of Hezbollah, or the Party of God, Iran has been providing verbal support for Syria, but little beyond that.

"Syria is on the front line against Zionist pressures," Iranian President Mohammad Khatami told reporters in Tehran earlier this month.

"We will defend Syria but," he added significantly, "it doesn't mean we will engage in military confrontation."

A Return to the Bloody Past?

After three resounding Arab defeats by Israel since the formation of the Jewish state in 1948, there are no doubts that conventional Arab military engagements against Israel — or its mighty ally, the United States — are out of the question.

But in the state-sponsored proxy war against Israel, Hezbollah has proved hugely successful as an "attack dog" unleashed by the governments of Iran and Syria.

During the past decade, Hezbollah's military wing has focused exclusively on Israel as an "occupier of Palestinian lands." But following the widespread Muslim opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, there have been fears that Hezbollah — with an organizational structure allegedly superior to al Qaeda's — could target Americans in Iraq.

A spate of suicide attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq last month sparked fears in U.S. intelligence circles that the group could revert to its early history of targeting Americans abroad.

U.S. officials also estimate that during the start of the Iraq war, hundreds of Arab citizens made their way into Iraq via Syria to conduct "martyrdom operations" against U.S. troops.

But some experts say that when it comes to Hezbollah, attention should be paid to its actions, not words.

"The Iraqi situation did result in a lot of rhetoric by Nasrallah in which he urged followers to attack American forces in Iraq," said Cannistraro. "But the continuing threat in Iraq stems less from Hezbollah than from Iraqis themselves associated with Saddam's regime. The foreigners in Iraq seem to be, for the most, common fodder responding emotionally to the situation and not traditional militants."

A Legitimate Party or a Terrorist Group?

But for some U.S. officials, judging a group by its actions would be a case of implementing policy too late, and there have been growing calls for a crackdown on the Party of God.

That, many Middle East experts say, could be easier said than done.

Although Hezbollah appears on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations, in the Arab world, the group is viewed as a legitimate political entity that has provided the Arab world its only victory against Israel — the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah has several members in the Lebanese parliament and extensive social, cultural and business networks, and the Lebanese government has consistently turned down Washington's calls to ban the organization.

"Hezbollah is a popular movement that speaks for the majority of Lebanese Shiites, who have historically been politically marginalized and manipulated," said As'ad AbuKhalil, a political scientist at California State University. "If Lebanon or Syria tries to disband it completely, there could be a popular rebellion in Lebanon."

But with the Lebanese left and its Christian community opposed to Syria's heavy-handed influence in the country, there have been hopes that U.S. pressure on Syria could lead to a disarming of Hezbollah, making it a more conventional Lebanese political party.

Although the Israeli-Lebanese border has been quiet in recent times, Hezbollah's Katyusha rockets are capable of reaching northern Israeli cities, presenting a continuing threat to the Jewish state.

Last week, in an interview with a leading Israeli newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon urged the United States to exert "very heavy" pressure on Syria to dislodge militant organizations supported by Damascus.

But Israeli calls for Washington to disband Palestinian militant groups are widely believed to strengthen Nasrallah's resolve to hold on to Hezbollah's military operations amid noisy protestations that U.S. policy on the Middle East is nothing more than Israel's to-do list.

‘The Palestinian Issue Is Not Going Away’

It's a delicate issue that some experts say Washington has not necessarily handled well.

"I think the U.S. can contribute to pursuing the integration of Hezbollah into the Lebanese political process by recognizing their importance," said Mansour Farhang, a political science professor at Bennington College in Vermont. "But the Palestinian issue is not going away and it's almost irrational to think of the U.S. playing a conciliatory role so long as the Palestinian cause is ongoing."

While their mutual support for the Palestinian cause has bound Hezbollah's two state backers, Damascus and Tehran have differing official policies on Israel.

Iran is bitterly opposed to the very existence of Israel. But Syria is committed to peace with the Jewish state, subject to Israel returning the disputed Golan Heights.

The difference has not posed a significant problem to Syrian-Iranian relations, but many experts warn that it won't be long before the Palestinian issue begins to haunt a post-Saddam government in Iraq.

"No matter how democracy takes a hold in Iraq and no matter what the security situation is, an Iraqi administration would take a supportive position on the Palestinian issue unless the U.S. wants to impose another shah," said Farhang, referring to the reviled former Shah Mohammed Reza of Iran, who was ousted in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Exporting the Iranian Revolution

But quite apart from concerns that Washington could install a widely unpopular puppet regime in Iraq, the recent display of Shiite power in the holy city of Karbala has raised U.S. concerns over Shiite aspirations for an Islamic — and possibly anti-American — government.

With nearly a million protesters chanting, "No to Saddam, no to Bush, yes for Islam," in recent days, Washington has been concerned about an Iranian influence over Iraq's majority Shiite population.

For its part, Iran sees itself as a protector of the world's Shiite population, many of whom have faced persecution and marginalization across the Sunni Muslim-dominated world, from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan.

At a news briefing in Washington on Wednesday, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Iran had been told not to interfere with Iraq's Shiite population.

"We've made clear to Iran that we would oppose any outside interference in Iraq's road to democracy," said Fleischer. "Infiltration of agents to destabilize the Shiite population would clearly fall into that category."

But while Iran does have the capacity to gain influence in a post-Saddam Iraq, some experts say the Islamic Republic of Iran has lost its revolutionary fervor to "spread the message" across the Muslim world.

"Twenty-five years ago, the Iranian revolution inspired the entire region," said Farhang, who served as revolutionary Iran's first ambassador to the United Nations but resigned over the subsequent hostage crisis, when 52 Americans were held inside the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

"But today, Iran has become conservative in its foreign policy. It has not done anything territorially aggressive to duplicate the Iranian revolution, which has proved to be an utter failure on all fronts," he said.

Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the leading Iraqi Shiite political group, has lived in exile in Tehran for more than 20 years. But some experts doubt al Hakim would want to duplicate an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq.

Indeed, in an interview with Reuters news service on Wednesday, al Hakim made it clear that he did not support the creation of a theocracy in Iraq. "We cannot make a comparison between the Iraqi and the Iranian people," he said. "We should not make a copy of the Iranian revolution and establish it in Iraq."

Regardless of the form a new government would take, there are hopes that a potential enfranchisement of Iraqi Shiites could pave the way for a transformation of Hezbollah from a party of God to a party of the people.

But for that, experts say the U.S. road map for peace in the Middle East must be viewed by Muslims as just and balanced.

"If the U.S. wants to dig a hole in the side of Hezbollah, it should not only use its intelligence and military," said Farhang. "In parallel fashion, it should also follow a political approach that addresses grievances that give rise to violent elements."