Predicament For U.S in Northern Iraq

I S T A N B U L, Turkey, April 3, 2003 -- What a difference a personal visit makes, especially when the visitor is the U.S. secretary of state and the meeting is Ankara, the Turkish capital.

Within hours of a public appearance by Colin Powell and Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister,Turkish truck drivers raced over the roads of southeast Turkey loaded with U.S. military humvees bound for northern Iraq. A mass movement of American equipment was expected to cross into northern Iraq Friday morning.

"We have solved all the outstanding issues with respect to providing supplies through Turkey to those units that are doing such a wonderful job in northern Iraq," Powell said to a swarm of international media on Wednesday. Powell's trip was the first foreign trip by a senior member of the Bush administration since the war with Iraq began.

And Turkey was an obvious choice. The Pentagon's "Northern Front" has been stymied by a "no" vote in Turkey's parliament on March 1. The "no" kept tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers from deploying in Turkey and moving into northern Iraq to put additional pressure on Saddam's forces surrounding Baghdad.

"Our discussions were very productive," said Powell at the end of his talks in Ankara. The Turkish government's decision to allow the shipment of food and medicine and other non-lethal supplies to U.S. forces in the north and the agreement to open Turkish air bases for medical emergency flights are important boosts for the northern front.

It will be good news for the Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade and some small special forces units already working in northern Iraq. The agreement will help expand military operations there.

Turkey's foreign minister said there would be no need for a new parliamentary vote. The tone of the meeting was extremely warm and friendly, a remarkable turnaround in an alliance that has been on the ropes. One issue that has brought the United States and Turkey close to divorce court is the Iraqi Kurds.

The Turks and the Kurds

"The question of which side the U.S. will choose is a touchy issue in Turkey," said Ibrahim Al-Marashi, a Research Associate at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. "That played a factor in Turkey's refusal to not allow the troops. From the Turkish side they see the U.S. treat the Kurds and themselves as equal partners. And this caused a lot of resentment."

For months, U.S. special forces units have been training the Kurdish militias in northern Iraq, converting them from a guerrilla army to infantry soldiers.

"So if the U.S. wants to open a northern front then they will have to choose the Turks," said Al-Marashi. "If they want the Kurds to do the work for them, then they will have to choose the Kurds. There is no way they can choose both sides."

But the outcome of the Powell visit made it clear that the United States has not yet made the decision and is still able to "have their Kate and Edith, too," as the old joke goes.

The balance of Turkey, the old ally, and the Kurds, a new partnership, is carried out in a number of important agreements.

Making Amends

"The U.S., Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds are establishing a coordinating committee, so there all the parties will have a phone number to call," said a Western diplomat. All parties hope the phone won't ring. The idea is to make sure there are no incidents that might compel Turkey to send their troops across the border.

The secretary of state repeated in Ankara that there was no reason for Turkey to intervene. Washington worries that a mass move across the border by the Turkish army would provoke a response from the Iraqi Kurds. A flashpoint could be the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The Kurds have long dreamed of seizing the city and have historically claimed Kirkuk as the future capital of an independent Kurdish state.

President Bush's special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad gave some answers on the question of Kirkuk. Speaking to reporters after the news conference in Ankara, Khalilzad said that Kirkuk was a specific topic in the Powell talks. He said that Powell had assured the Turks that only American forces would liberate Kirkuk. Khalilzad added that the United States had proposed a commission to sort out competing claims in the city after the war.

Kirkuk is a microcosm of Iraq's complicated ethnic mix. The city is populated by Iraqi Arabs, Kurds and a large number of Turcomans. Saddam Hussein's regime had carried out an extensive policy of Arabization in the city, forcing citizens to renounce their ethnic identity or forfeit family property.

Some Kurds and Turcoman's fled the city and the Iraqi government encouraged Iraqi Arabs from other parts of Iraq to take over their homes. It is a city that could have a spasm of revenge at the end of the war. The proposed commission is an attempt to keep order when the fighting ends.

As the war gains momentum in the south, the dangerous politics of the northern front, for the moment, are not a threat.