Troubles Filling Afghanistan's Power Vacuum

Nov. 14, 2001 -- Landlocked, squashed between six countries, and serving as a perennial hunting ground for empire-seekers, Afghanistan has been a pawn in the world's geopolitical games for centuries — and its inhabitants instinctively understand the bitter price they pay for it.

The chessboard has been such a fitting metaphor for the country, that as the international community scrambles to establish a multi-ethnic power-sharing coalition to administer Afghanistan, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw made a promise to the Afghan people earlier this week.

"No more Great Games," said Straw, referring to the race of diplomatic stealth between Britain and imperial Russia for control of the region in the 19th century.

Afghanistan is once again up for grabs. The various factions of the Northern Alliance that forced the Taliban from Kabul and other key cities are now poised to play roles in a future government. Just what that role is has yet to be determined.

And then there is the issue of Afghanistan's neighbors and how they play into the scene.

The international community today is arguably wiser from history's lessons, but many of the surrounding countries and the United States and Russia come to the table with their own sets of priorities.

At stake are issues of domestic stability, ethnic allegiances, trucking rights and access to lucrative gas pipelines. And experts fear that at times, the countries with the biggest stakes in Afghanistan may find themselves sitting at opposite ends of the political chessboard.

Six-Plus-Two May Not Equal Consensus

With the Afghan capital of Kabul under Northern Alliance control and a potentially dangerous power vacuum threatening the war-ravaged country, the focus has now shifted to what is commonly called the "six-plus-two," an alliance of Afghanistan's six neighbors plus Russia and the United States.

Comprised of the governments of Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Russia and the United States, the "six-plus-two" group was created by the U.N's envoy for Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, in 1997. But frustrated with Pakistan's frequent obstructions and its refusal to respond to repeated calls to stop backing the Taliban, Brahimi stepped down as a U.N. envoy two years later.

Although Brahimi is back in business today, actively negotiating with the six-plus-two group to establish a coalition in Kabul under U.N. auspices, some experts fear that the old bogeys might come back to haunt the future of Afghanistan.

"The six-plus-two always broke down because of Pakistan," said Stephen Cohen, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "But while things have changed after the Sept. 11 attacks, there's no saying how permanent these changes are."

Forgetting the Past

Sharing a 1,500-mile border with Afghanistan and a population mix of ethnic Pashtuns, spread across northern Pakistan and southern Afghanistan, Pakistan has been a strategic player in Afghan politics since the Soviet withdrawal in 1989.

With a hostile India on its eastern border, Pakistan's influential, highly secretive intelligence agency, the Interservices Intelligence (ISI) is widely believed to have spawned and supported the Taliban.

But though Pakistani President Pervez Musharaff aligned his country with the international coalition against terrorism after Sept. 11, some experts fear Pakistan's past sins may not be easily forgotten in a post-Taliban Afghanistan.

"Afghans are only too well aware of the ISI's involvement with the Taliban," said Abdur Raheem Yasser, of the International Studies and Programs of the University of Nebraska at Omaha. "They have not forgotten the atrocities committed during that period and Pakistan is afraid of it."

Pakistan has openly voiced its disappointment over the Northern Alliance seizing Kabul and has called for the Afghan capital to be maintained as a demilitarized zone under a U.N. peacekeeping force.

Although Pakistan's backing of the Taliban has pitched it against the Northern Alliance in the past, experts believe the sizeable economic assistance Pakistan stands to gain from its cooperation will ensure a modicum of cooperation with the leaders of minority ethnic groups that comprise the alliance.

Ethnic and Economic Concerns

Iran to the West is compelled to protect the interests of Afghanistan's Shiite minorities, many of whom have waited long to see the collapse of the hard-line Sunni-dominated Taliban.

Ethnic considerations aside, Iran also has an eye on the pie of lucrative trucking routes to the Central Asian states and projects to construct pipelines transporting oil and gas from the Caspian region to the West.

"Oil is at the back of everyone's minds," said Yasser. "But for now, there are more pressing matters to address."

Islamic Fundamentalism in Central Asia

For Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbors, the most urgent issue is the containment of the tide of Islamic fundamentalism fostered by the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Further afield, Russia, concerned about its own Islamic militancy problems in Chechnya, has long supported the Northern Alliance and its more temperate brand of Islam.

Yasser believes Moscow stands to lose in the economic round should a scramble for construction rights for gas pipelines emerge in post-Taliban Afghanistan.

On the political front, with memories of the lengthy Soviet occupation not quite forgotten, Russia knows it has to tread lightly with Afghanistan.

Amid myriad maneuvers and counter-maneuvers, Afghanistan's hopes are pinned, for the moment, on the shoulders of its 86-year-old former king Zahir Shah, a Pashtun who has lived in exile in Italy since 1973.

Although Shah's close ties with India during his reign makes him a figure of suspicion for Pakistan, Islamabad knows that the former king is a popular figure among Afghans.

"Zahir Shah is a highly respected elder," said Yasser. "Afghans love the former king and respectfully call him 'baba' or grandfather."

But the former king is not a very happy man these days. Hours after the Northern Alliance swept into Kabul on Tuesday, a spokesman for Shah expressed the king's disappointment with the Northern Alliance for breaking a promise not to enter Kabul without a provisional government in place.