Replacing Saddam

Jan. 16, 2001 -- Saddam Hussein still seems very much in control of Iraq 10 years after the United States and its allies went to war against his forces, but the question remains: Who will replace the so-called "Butcher of Baghdad" when he goes and will he be any better?

Qusay Hussein, Saddam’s youngest son, appears to be the most likely successor barring a coup, experts on the Iraqi government say. And they say Qusay has proven himself to be just a ruthless as his father.

Rumors surfaced earlier this month that Saddam was seriously ill and those rumors may have sparked anticipation for some hoping for an end to a regime that precipitated the Persian Gulf War, provoked eight years of punishing United Nations sanctions on the Iraqi economy, and killed, tortured and otherwise deprived Iraqis of many basic necessities and human rights.

But experts say Saddam’s power — and security — are firmly rooted not just in extreme repression, but also by an extensive family and tribal network, which holds positions of power throughout the Iraqi government, including the various military and intelligence organizations. And the son Qusay seems well positioned and well practiced to take his father’s place as the supreme authoritarian power within that hierarchy.

Whether Qusay takes power, or Saddam’s eldest son Uday, “they are not very likely to change Iraq’s policy radically. Not likely at all in fact,” says Amatzia Baram, a leading authority on Iraq at the University of Haifa in Israel.

Tribal Ties

Family loyalty, predicated on mutual interest, helps run Iraq today. Nearly 80 palaces and VIP residences in Iraq and many other amenities unavailable to most Iraqis are provided for the enjoyment of Saddam, his family, and key supporters as reward and incentive for their loyalty, according to the State Department.

“You have to remember, the Iraq government is a family enterprise,” says defector Khidr Hamzah, a former high-level Iraqi official who designed nuclear weapons for Saddam before he fled in the mid-1990s.

“It’s run by family members, tribal members, second cousins, their sons, their nephews … It’s a tribal system that [runs] the country and family relations is the most sure to loyalty, in the system and a guarantor of having no coups, no assassinations from within,” he says.

Outside of the family, loyalty to the tribe, and especially to Saddam, is enforced by the ruthless eradication of all possible sources of opposition.

“There are a number of players in the country, but it’s difficult to tell who had more control, or more authority than the others,” says Edmund Ghareeb, an Adjunct Professor American University in Washington.

But most observers, including Gharreb, agree Qusay or Uday are the most likely successors and Qusay seems best placed to take the reigns.

The better-known Uday originally was hand picked by Saddam to succeed and given power within the Iraqi government. But Uday during the 1990s gradually fell out of favor with Saddam and the family because of a series of incidents, including the killing of Saddam’s once-powerful half-brother who returned to Iraq from Jordan after temporarily defecting, experts say.

“Qusay has been brought up gradually to the front, Uday was put aside,” says defector Hamzah.

Qusay’s Rise

Authorities on Iraq agree that the support of Iraq’s military and intelligence services is needed for anyone to take and hold power after Saddam — and Qusay seems to have all the right connections. While Uday now runs a government-sanctioned newspaper and television channel and chairs Iraq’s national Olympic committee, Qusay has assumed some of the most powerful positions in the Iraqi government.

He is reported to control the Special Republican Guard, which is responsible for protecting the president and providing a military response to any attempt at a rebellion or coup, and the elite Republican Guard, considered the shock troops of the Iraqi military.

While Saddam chairs Iraq’s National Security Council, which coordinates the countries numerous military, intelligence and other security agencies, Qusay is believed to regularly preside over it.

Qusay reportedly also is deputy chairman of the Special Security Committee of the Iraqi National Security Council, which was responsible for preventing United Nations monitoring activities from uncovering information, documents, and equipment connected with weapons of mass destruction. And he has appointed associates to head other important agencies.

Security Services Support

Qusay also has been instrumental in discouraging and destroying real or suspected opposition within the security services and within Iraqi society.

According to an annual global human rights report prepared by the State Department, the regime periodically eliminates large numbers of political detainees en masse and executes high-ranking civilian, military and tribal leaders suspected of plotting against Saddam. And the report says Qusay has been involved in that, for instance, ordering the killing of senior military officers in January 1999.

The United Nations Special Rapporteur to Iraq has reported Qusay supervised or ordered military attacks against civilian settlements in southern Iraq in 1998 and he ordered arrests in the region in order to intimidate the population.

A defector from Iraq’s internal security service quoted in London’s Observer last month said forces supervised by Qusay in 1998 executed more than 2,000 prisoners, many possibly jailed for joining parties or taking part in anti-government activities.

“Most of the killings are done by Qusay now,” says Hamzah. “It used to be Saddam or his security service … Qusay’s the butcher of the family now.”

Were Qusay to take power, says Baram, he would likely rule with the help of the “very capable” internal security general Abd Hamid Hmud, with whom he has worked closely since the late-1980s.

Coup Possibilities?

The continued repression under Saddam may be a sign there remain many powerful people in Iraq critical of the regime, and possibly willing to someday do something about it. Then again, the repression may have successfully eliminated those most able to seize power from Saddam’s circle.

“My personal opinion is that there is very little well-placed opposition in the higher circles right now,” says Rick Francona, a retired U.S. Air Force intelligence officer who specialized in Iraq. “There have been some really serious purges since 1996 and I think they’ve been pretty much weeded out.”

But Francona says neither son ever really had to work his way up through the Iraq’s political system like Saddam did, and so he believes they may require even greater repression, if that’s possible, to take and hold power after Saddam.

Saddam “was actually part of that [ruling Ba’th] party structure, and he worked his way up, he actually earned his position in the party,” says Francona, who had worked with Iraqi military leaders prior to the Gulf War. “His sons are merely heirs, and have no legitimacy. They have their own independent power bases. They’ve developed individual circles. But I don’t think that their popularity extends into the military.”

Hamzah, like Francona, though, doubts the likelihood of a successful coup by parties within the government.

“How can you have a coup? Who’s going to arrange it? Saddam kills on a whisper,” he says. “Even an officer would need collaborators. Immediately the word will go out. They will have a thousand guys who will tell him they will collaborate with him and immediately report to Saddam. Double agents are the name of the game in Iraq now.”

Qusay’s Ambition

The Iraqi military would be more likely to step in if there is a prolonged power struggle or if things start falling apart throughout the country, the experts say.

Prof. Baram forsees a scenario in which the two brothers struggle for power after Saddam.

Uday is “extremely ambitious. He has many party old-timers on his side because he found ways of forging alignments with them and he is the czar of the Iraqi media today. So, he is not going to give up easily.”

There was a recent sign that Uday still has aspirations for power. The elder son recently did voice unusual public criticism of the Iraqi parliament. At a Dec. 24 session of the parliament, of which he’s a member, Uday called for a multi-party system in Iraq, but said it was difficult to implement under the U.N. sanctions.

“There’s no doubt that I think this is the way for him to show that he’s still a player that he has some ideas trying to appeal to a broader, wider audience within the country,” says Prof. Ghareeb.

Uday has his own security force, the Fedayeen Saddam (Saddam’s Martyrs) composed largely of young soldiers recruited from regions loyal to Saddam.

Possible Trouble Outside Baghdad

Western governments have long feared things could fall apart throughout Iraq after Saddam dies, concerned the country could descend into violent chaos as various interests compete for power or declare independence.

There’s a concern that in northern Iraq, Saddam’s death could provoke Kurdish groups to declare independence, with the hope the West will enforce its no-fly zone there and prevent an attack by the Iraqi army.

In southern Iraq, Shiite dissidents have long hoped for an end to the repression of Saddam’s regime. An uprising in March 1991 was brutally crushed by the regime and there continue to be reports of people sentenced to death and executed because of alleged involvement.

“The first few days is going to be about who will be the next president,” predicts Paul Goble, editor of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Radio Free Iraq. “After that, I think the country is going to descend into a kind of chaos … it’s going to a very, very tough time.”