Bush, a Foreign Policy Novice

W A S H I N G T O N, Dec. 14, 2000 -- George W. Bush, who takes over as U.S. president in January after squeaking through a protracted contest with Democrat Al Gore, did not get the job for his foreign policy expertise.

The Texas governor, wealthy son of a former president whohad served as ambassador to China and as CIA Director, hasshown little interest in the world outside the United States, traveling abroad only a handful of times in his 54 years.

But since the Nov. 7 election, he has publicly givenspecial attention to foreign policy, perhaps to assure anervous world that despite weeks of uncertainty over the result there will be no hiatus in U.S. policy.

He will choose his national security team from a pool ofwell-seasoned advisers, including retired Army Gen. ColinPowell as secretary of state, to make up for his inexperience and boost his legitimacy after a knife-edge election win.

In a campaign dominated by domestic issues Bush staked outsome principles on which his foreign policy would differ with that of outgoing President Bill Clinton, in particular a greater reluctance to intervene in foreign conflicts.

Bush will to continue U.S. commitment to free trade and toNATO, although he worried European allies by suggestingwithdrawing U.S. peacekeeping forces from the Balkans, saying American troops are for “fighting wars” not peacekeeping.

He says he will maintain tough sanctions on Iraq andengagement with China, although he sees the communist giantmore as a “strategic competitor” than as a “strategic partner” and promises more emphasis on traditional ties with Japan.

Old Friends, Old Foes

Bush has a host of foreign policy advisers, many of whomserved his father and former President Ronald Reagan and will recall some of the enduring foes, like Yugoslavia’s Slobodan Milosevic and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, from the old days.

Many analysts believe a more pronounced “America-first”attitude adopted by some of those advisers, particularly those who built their careers during the Cold War, could emerge, contrasting with a globalist approach under Clinton.

This could be encouraged by some powerful isolationistmembers in the Republican-led Congress.

In his first interview after the election, Bush sought todispel such fears, going out of his way to stress the U.S. must accept its responsibilities in the world, not retreat into isolationism, and build up the major alliances.

“America can’t go it alone,” he told CBS television’s 60Minutes II. “The principal threat facing America isisolationism,” he said, adding: “We’ve got to build ouralliances, we’ve got to work with our friends.”

Arms Ahoy

Bush has vowed to press ahead with a controversial NationalMissile Defense system, expanding it to protect not just the U.S. but also U.S. allies and troops around the world,despite threats from Russia that it would wreck existinginternational arms treaties.

Bush’s comments have prompted concern in Moscow that theera of formal arms agreements, a basis of world stabilityduring the Cold War, may be over and that a Bush White House would move toward a more unilateralist strategy.

Bush also supports Congress’s decision last year not toratify the nuclear Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which wasseen by many allies as undermining U.S. leadership in thestruggle to halt the spread of nuclear weapons in the world.

His close aide, Condoleezza Rice, who is expected to becomehis national security adviser, said the treaty would inhibit the U.S. in maintaining its own nuclear stockpile and would do little to stop the proliferation of such weapons.

Apparently to head off fears that as president he mightencourage an American swagger, Bush says the U.S. mustshow humility while being firm in its principles.

Arrogant America

The U.S. role in the world must be “not an arrogantpresence, but a humble presence, yet a consistent presence,” he said in the 60 Minutes II interview.

The message would be: “When we say something, we mean it,and we’re going to back up our word. We have greatopportunities to help make the world more peaceful, but wecan’t do so if we become isolationists,” he said.

Attacks on U.S. interests abroad would prompt a toughresponse, he said, saying: “The best way for our nation andother free nations is to punish those who would harm ourcitizens.”

Referring specifically to the bombing of the USS Colewarship at Aden in October, which has been linked to Saudiexile Osama bin Laden, he said: “If we find out who did it,there’s going to be a consequence.”

Rice, a Russia expert who served with Bush’s father,President George Bush, has condemned Clinton’s Moscow policy as based on “a romantic view of Russia” in the 1990s.

“Pouring IMF funding into an unreformed and corrupt economyin fact weakened Russia and helped to lead to the 1998 crash,” she said in an interview earlier this year.

She said Washington must support “real economic reform, notpretend economic reform,” although she did not elaborate. In President Vladimir Putin, Bush will have to deal with a leader apparently intent on reviving Russia’s lost world clout.

One of the strongest points Bush repeated during hisyear-and-a-half of campaigning for the presidency has been a belief that Clinton has sent U.S. troops abroad too often, weakening the U.S. military’s core role to defend America.

Leave Regional Conflicts Alone

He and Rice have said he would let regional allies take thestrain in regional conflicts, like the Balkans, while massing force to overwhelm enemies in major conflicts directly affecting the U.S., like in the Gulf or in East Asia.

This matches the approach of the charismatic and widelyrespected Powell, who directed U.S. forces in the Gulf War.

Bush has generally adopted a similar approach to the MiddleEast as Clinton and Gore.

On one significant point they differ—Bush says he willbegin preparations for moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalemfrom Tel Aviv once he is inaugurated, while Clinton argues this should await a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

One issue that will confront Bush immediately will be NorthKorea, the Stalinist Asian wild card whose nuclear program and unrestrained sale of missiles to potential U.S. enemies made it a top priority for Clinton’s national security team.

Clinton spent years brokering a deal to defuse its nuclearprogram and appears on the brink of a missile agreement, but some Republicans have accused him of appeasement and Bush will be under pressure to take a more cautious approach.