Concerns over housing and immigration make for a volatile campaign in Ireland's election

DUBLIN -- From his poster, there’s not much to distinguish Gerry Hutch from the slew of other independent candidates hoping discontented voters will propel them into Ireland’s parliament in an election on Friday.

“We need change, and I’m your man,” it says. On the streets of Dublin, some voters agree — despite the candidate’s unusual background.

Prosecutors say Gerry “the Monk” Hutch heads an international crime group involved in robbery and drug smuggling. He was acquitted last year of murdering a gangland rival. This month he was bailed in Spain's Canary Islands on money-laundering charges and allowed to return to Ireland to run for election.

“I’d love if he got in,” said Derek Richardson, an unemployed Dubliner unimpressed by the big-party politicians. “There’s plenty of other gangsters out there in suits.”

Around the world in this record-breaking election year, voters have decided that something in their country is broken, and punished incumbent governments.

That sentiment also ripples through the campaign in Ireland, where rival center-right parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail took turns running the country for a century before forming a coalition administration in 2020. If some voters are turning on them, the anti-politician mood also is hitting left-of-center opposition party Sinn Fein, which not long ago appeared destined for power.

With voters set to fill all 174 seats in the Dáil, the lower house of parliament, opinion polls suggest voters’ support is split into five roughly even chunks — for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents running the gamut from left-leaning to far right.

Restaurant worker Anne-Marie Kerry saw the appeal of independents — even Hutch, the alleged gangster.

“They’re all criminals anyway,” she said.

Housing crisis

The issue that comes up most on the campaign trail is housing.

Apartments and houses are expensive — prices rose by 10% in the year to August — and there are not enough to go around. A housing commission set up by the government says Ireland has a “deficit” of up to 256,000 homes. Rents have soared, and many young teachers, nurses and other key workers can’t afford a place of their own.

Eoin O’Malley, associate professor of political science at Dublin City University, said the cost of living squeeze means people in their 20s are “talking about emigration, even though there are plenty of jobs in Ireland.”

“People are feeling that they can’t settle down so they are going abroad to get their career going,” he said. “So there’s a fear among middle-class parents that ‘My children will never come back again.’”

It’s not just the young who are feeling the pinch. Carole York is 73 and has fought a five-year battle to avoid eviction from the rural home near Waterford, 100 miles (160 kilometers) south of Dublin, that she has turned into a sanctuary for rescued ponies. She says the landlord encouraged her and promised a long-term let, but then decided he wanted her out so he could sell the valuable property.

“There are many, many elderly people who are in a similar position to me, who are just being turfed out because of the way prices of property are just going through the roof in this country,” she said.

York says she “never had the slightest interest in politics until this election.” Now, she’ll be voting for a party that promises to stand up for renters, such as Sinn Fein or the smaller Labour Party.

Immigration challenges

Immigration has risen on the political agenda as new arrivals transform a country long defined by emigration. About 20% of Ireland’s population was born outside Ireland, and 120,000 foreigners moved to Ireland in the year to April, the biggest number since 2007.

Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa. This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests.

A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.

Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts. Others take a more measured view, including Hutch, who says he supports immigration, but that migrants should work and not “sponge off” the state.

“The country’s overloaded with refugees, and it’s not right,” said Caroline Alwright, who sells fruit and vegetables in Dublin’s Moore Street outdoor market. “I’m not racist, by no means, but we have to look after ourselves, because no one is looking after us.”

She says she’s voting for an independent candidate, and “I’ll never be Fine Gael or Fianna Fail again.”

Coalition likely

The main political parties are trying to defuse the discontent, touting plans to get a grip on immigration and build many more houses.

Ireland’s government has one advantage over many others: money, in part from 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes that the European Union ordered Apple to pay Ireland. The government initially opposed that payment, because low taxes are one of the key sweeteners Ireland has used to attract investment from major foreign companies.

The threat posed by tariff-loving U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to Ireland’s economic model has not come up much on the campaign trail, though Prime Minister Simon Harris has said his Fine Gael party “is setting aside a very significant amount into future funds to protect our country from any economic shock.”

Harris is hoping to remain as prime minister, or taoiseach, but his campaign has been weakened by gaffes. His brusque treatment of a disabled care worker he met last week became the kind of viral political moment that politicians dread.

Fianna Fail, led by Deputy Prime Minister Micheál Martin, has the edge in most polls, and the leader looks relaxed on the campaign trail. Encountering handshakes and selfie requests in the shops of Dublin’s affluent Clontarf area, he acknowledged that “there is a need for new policies” — but not new governing parties.

Martin said "this government has weathered some very significant shocks to the economy,” including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

“But we managed to bring the Irish economy back," he told The Associated Press. “Why go back to the starting point again?”

Sinn Fein, which aims to reunite the Republic of Ireland and the U.K. territory of Northern Ireland, topped the popular vote at the last election in 2020 but was shut out of government because neither Fianna Fail nor Fine Gael would work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic links to the Irish Republican Army.

In recent months its poll ratings have plunged, due in part to a disconnect with its working-class voters over immigration. Party officials say Sinn Fein has gained momentum during the three-week election campaign, but its path to power remains limited by a lack of coalition partners.

Analysts say the most likely election outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald insisted the party could win, and implored voters considering independent candidates to think again.

"Do you want a change in government?” she said while campaigning in Dublin. ″If that is what you desire, then Sinn Fein is the party to vote for.

“I want to reassure people that it can happen. I’d go further than that and say, it’s in your hands. It can’t happen without you.”