2024 election exit poll analysis: Abortion
Voters in seven states approved ballot measures to expand abortion access.
The battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada were among 10 states with abortion on the ballot Tuesday.
Some strategists hypothesized that this would boost turnout among the majority of voters who support legal abortion, aiding Democratic candidates in the process.
Not so fast: Attitudes on abortion were not as one-sided as it may have seemed, according to an analysis of exit polls.
Donald Trump's approach, focusing on states' rights, appeared to resonate with voters who didn't view abortion access as incompatible with a Trump presidency. In Arizona, 23% who voted "yes" on the state's initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution also voted for Trump. In Nevada, where another abortion-rights measure was approved, 25% of "yes" voters likewise went for Trump.
This followed at the national level. Among the two-thirds of voters who said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 28% voted for Trump; that included 30% in Arizona, 32% in Nevada and 36% in Florida.
Supporters of legal abortion still broke strongly for Harris. But partisan elasticity on the issue did not cut both ways. As Harris made abortion access a central focus of her campaign, she won only 9% of voters who said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
In Arizona, as an example, anti-abortion voters made up 31% of the electorate -- and backed Trump by 95-5%.