Poll: Bush Popularity Narrowly Based

Jan. 19, 2004 -- George W. Bush starts his fourth year in office with an intricate riddle unsolved: How to translate his broad popularity in one critical area -- fighting terrorism -- into strength in others where he's substantially weaker, from the economy to a range of domestic issues.

Despite his strengths, the task is a pressing one: On the eve of his third State of the Union address and at the start of an election year, the Democrats in Congress now match Bush in public trust to handle the nation's main problems, 44 percent to 45 percent.

That's Bush's weakest result on this question in the last two years, and it underscores his conundrum: His overall job approval rating -- 58 percent, fueled by 66 percent approval for handling terrorism -- is much better than his ratings on a variety of individual issues would imply. The president's strength is significant but narrowly based, and that makes it potentially vulnerable.

Indeed, out of 10 issues tested in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, the Democrats lead Bush in trust to handle six (three of which -- health insurance, prescription drugs and Medicare -- are related.) They're tied in two -- taxes and education. And Bush leads by wide margins in two others -- terrorism and the situation in Iraq. The Democrats lead, albeit by smaller margins, in trust to handle the economy, the budget deficit, health insurance, Medicare, prescription drug benefits and immigration issues.

On these and other issues, recent efforts by Bush to seize the initiative have fallen short. Polls last week found majority opposition to his temporary amnesty plan for illegal immigrants. In this survey, 62 percent oppose the manned space program he's proposed, and 56 percent oppose a government role in promoting traditional marriage, said to be one theme of his address Tuesday night.

At the same time, on balance, Bush's overall grades are more positive than negative. Beyond his overall job approval rating are Americans' personal reactions to his administration's policies -- 54 percent positive (either enthusiastic or satisfied), compared with 45 percent negative (dissatisfied or angry).

The public's attention, however, may be turning toward some of Bush's weaker suits. The number of Americans who want him to devote most of his State of the Union speech to domestic issues (as opposed to the economy or terrorism) has risen from 31 percent just before the 2002 address to 40 percent today.

Approvals

Bush's approval ratings on specific issues tell a similar story to his standing versus the Democrats. His strongest rating is for handling the war on terrorism; as noted, 66 percent approve. Fifty-five percent approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq (it was 60 percent just after the capture of Saddam Hussein), and 55 percent approve of his work on education, a key domestic issue on which he's maintained a good score.

But on handling the economy, Bush gets a closer 51-47 percent split in approval; it's a 45-51 percent split on taxes; and more disapprove than approve of his work on Medicare, drug benefits and especially health insurance (55 percent disapprove), immigration issues (56 percent disapprove) and the deficit (58 percent disapprove).

Approval on terrorism, Iraq and the economy are more highly correlated with Bush's overall approval rating than are his ratings on any other individual issues.

Comparisons

Even if Bush's overall approval rating is narrowly based, and thus potentially vulnerable, it's still darn good. Looking back nearly a half century, only one previous president has had a higher approval rating in January of a re-election year -- Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

But what probably matters more than a president's overall approval rating is its trajectory. Jimmy Carter had the same approval rating in January 1980 as Bush has today -- but he was headed south, and lost re-election. Bush's direction is tricky to discern; he's down from a war-inflated high last spring, but up from recent lows this past fall as economic discontent eased somewhat.

Bush's rating may be somewhat changeable in the pull of the issues; five national polls in the past week have put it variously at 59, 58, 54, 53 and 50 percent. Given the range of Bush's ratings on specific issues, top issues on the respondents' minds may play a role. (Bush approval was the first question in this poll, so it couldn't have been influenced by anything preceding.)

Generic

The division in trust to handle the nation's main problems is reflected in another question, the "generic" horse race -- asking people if they're more inclined to support Bush or "the Democratic nominee" for president. It's about an even split in this poll; 48 percent for Bush, 46 percent for the Democrat.

That's about back to where it was last fall, settling from 50-41 percent in mid-December, when Bush had a bump from Saddam Hussein's capture and brighter economic sentiment. Again, it shows potential vulnerability for Bush, but potential only; he's led every named Democrat in every horse-race match-up in every publicly released poll this election cycle, save for a single Gallup poll last September.

Economy

The economy's likely to be a prominent feature this election year; it's axiomatic that absent an unpopular war, nothing hurts a president as much as economic discontent. Bush was helped last fall by improving economic views: The number of Americans' saying the economy's in bad shape fell from 70 percent in September to 57 percent late last month.

That trend, though, has paused; in this poll about the same number, 58 percent, say the economy's bad. Moreover, 42 percent say most Americans are worse off than they were when Bush became president; this, too, has stalled after improving by 12 points. Just 13 percent say most people have gotten better off under Bush, a criticism his political opponents can be expected to hit hard and often.

Love and Anger

Personally, Bush has an empathy deficit: Fifty-six percent don't think he understands the problems of people like them. That's just two points from its peak last fall, and it makes it harder for Bush to connect with a personal appeal apart from his ratings on the issues.

As far as "love him/hate him," 30 percent "strongly" disapprove of Bush's overall job performance, while 35 percent strongly approve. While "strong" disapproval is at a career high for Bush, it's been as high or higher for his predecessors: Bill Clinton's "strong" disapproval hit 33 percent, Bush's father's 34 percent, Ronald Reagan's 37 percent, Jimmy Carter's 30 percent. In politics, some people just aren't going to like you.

On policy, as well, there are people at the extremes -- 15 percent of Americans are "angry" about the administration's policies, while across the spectrum about as many, 12 percent, are "enthusiastic" about them. But quite a few more, 24 percent, were "angry" about the way things were going in April 1992, when economic discontent was higher.

Iraq and Terrorism

Given their importance in his overall performance, views of the war in Iraq and the campaign against terrorism are key for Bush. On terrorism they are very good; on Iraq, good, but less uniformly so.

On the positive side for Bush, 56 percent say the war with Iraq was worth fighting (four in 10 say not) and 59 percent believe it has contributed to the long-term security of the United States. Fewer, however -- 34 percent -- say it's contributed "a great deal" to U.S. security, perhaps leaving the cost-benefit equation open for further debate.

Casualties, moreover, are a continued concern: Sixty-two percent say there has been an unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq, two points from the peak in November and more than double the number at the fall of Baghdad last April.

The question of whether the war has contributed to U.S. security is central to its support. Among people who say it has improved security, eight in 10 say the war was worth fighting. Among those who see no improvement, eight in 10 say it wasn't.

In terms of terrorism, 55 percent now express confidence in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further attacks in this country, up 10 points from last fall (the capture of Saddam may have helped). Two-thirds say the country is safer from terrorism than it was before Sept. 11, 2001.

Seventy-four percent give a positive rating to the country's performance preventing further attacks, and just over six in 10 also give a positive rating to the United States' efforts to break up the al Qaeda terrorist network. In both these, however, few rate the performance as "excellent" (a word with which people tend to be parsimonious). And fewer, 48 percent, say the country's done a good job winning the cooperation of other countries in fighting terrorism.

Women are 11 points less apt than men to say the war has improved security, and much more apt to say the level of casualties is unacceptable (69 percent of women say so, compared with 53 percent of men). Older Americans and blacks also remain much more critical of the war than others, and partisanship is still high — 86 percent of Republicans say it was worth fighting; 68 percent of Democrats say not.

Groups

Differences among population groups in views of Bush and his work lay out a sort of demographic blueprint for the election battle ahead. Three in four non-whites, including 85 percent of blacks, say Bush doesn't understand the problems of average Americans; so do two-thirds of independents and nine in 10 liberal Democrats. At the same time, eight in 10 conservative Republicans say he does understand the public's problems, as do six in 10 evangelical white Protestants.

Divisions are similar on Bush's approval rating. Of particular concern to him might be his comparatively low approval rating among retirement-aged Americans -- 50 percent in this group approve of his work overall -- since they tend to be among the most reliable voters. In the generic horse race, the Democrat has a 10-point lead over Bush among adults age 65 and over.

The generic Democrat runs ahead of Bush by 48-42 percent among independents, but trails him by 43-49 percent among white Catholics, two quintessential swing voter groups. Bush does nine points better with men than with women, who are more apt to be Democrats. And there's a wide racial gap -- among whites, Bush has a 12-point advantage, but he trails by 68-25 percent among nonwhites, including by 80-13 percent among blacks.

Marriage

The question of the government's role in promoting traditional marriage is another of those that shows the cultural fault line running through American politics. (Another, covered in the last ABC/Post poll, is the question of whether a president should rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions.)

In this case, 56 percent of Americans say it should not be a role of the federal government to promote and encourage traditional marriage; 43 percent say it should. Six in 10 Democrats and independents alike say this should not be a role of government; 52 percent of Republicans say it should.

Ideology cuts even more strongly; two-thirds of liberals say this should not be a role of government; nearly six in 10 conservatives say it should. But some of the biggest splits are among religious groups: Six in 10 evangelical white Protestants say promoting traditional marriage should be a role of government; just 35 percent of non-evangelical white Protestants agree, as do four in 10 white Catholics, and just 23 percent of Americans who profess no religion.

Interestingly, though, there's no difference among married and unmarried people on the question of whether government should promote traditional marriage. Fifty-six percent in the former group, and 58 percent in the latter, say it should not.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 15-18, 2004 among a random national sample of 1,036 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.