Poll: U.S. Split Before State of the Union

By
Analysis by GARY LANGER
November 17, 2005, 11:12 AM ET
22 min read

Feb. 2, 2005 -- -- President Bush tonight addresses a nation as split by his policies and performance as it's ever been: With one term down and one to go, precisely half of Americans approve of his performance as president while 45 percent don't, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

It's far from a soaring score: At 50 percent, Bush's job approval rating is just three points above his career low (47 percent last spring and summer), 42 points below his career high (92 percent shortly after the 9/11 attacks) and 14 points below his career average.

The successful elections in Iraq may yet have an effect, especially if they contribute to improved security there; handling the situation in Iraq has been the public's top priority since the election. This poll was conducted Wednesday through Monday, with interviews both before and after the Iraq vote.

Deep partisanship is at play in Bush's ratings: While 87 percent of Republicans approve of Bush's work in office, just 14 percent of Democrats agree. But partisanship isn't new, and Bush's real challenge is that he gets just 48 percent approval from independents. At this point eight years ago, Bill Clinton's rating among independents was 13 points higher, 61 percent.

Groups

Partisan divisions aren't the only ones. Bush's approval rating in this latest survey is 11 points higher among men than among women. He does especially well with married men (62 percent approval), followed by married women, then unmarried men. As in the fall election, he's weakest among unmarried women, with just 37 percent approval.

Bush has 55 percent approval in the "red" states -- those he won in November -- compared with 43 percent in the "blue" states, won by John Kerry. Bush's rating is lower in Kerry's home region, the Northeast (39 percent), compared with elsewhere. It's 14 points worse among lower- rather than upper-income adults. And it's particularly weak among minorities: Fifty-five percent of whites approve of his work, while 30 percent of minorities (and just 17 percent of blacks) agree.

There's also a striking gap by residential area: Bush has a 60 percent approval rating from people living in rural areas (about a fifth of the population), but just 42 percent from big-city dwellers (about a sixth of all Americans).

Partisanship does inform many of these. Blacks, women, Northeasterners, lower-income Americans, city dwellers -- all the groups that like Bush least -- have among the most Democrats in their ranks.


Bush Rating
Approve Disapprove % Democrat
--- --- ---
All50 45 34%
--- --- ---
Democrats14 83
Independents48 43
Republicans87 11
--- --- ---
Men55 40 28
Women44 49 39
--- --- ---
Married men62 35 27
Married women53 40 34
Unmarried men46 48 30
Unmarried women37 57 44
--- --- ---
Northeast39 55 40
West47 47 34
South54 41 32
Midwest55 40 30
--- --- ---
Red states55 40 31
Blue states43 50 37
--- --- ---
Income <$35K42 52 40
>$75K56 42 31
--- --- ---
Whites55 40 29
Non-whites30 64 52
Blacks*17 78 67
--- --- ---
Rural60 32 26
Town50 44 33
Suburb47 50 36
Big city42 53 41
Approve Disapprove % Democrat--- --- ---All50 45 34%--- --- ---Democrats14 83 Independents48 43 Republicans87 11 --- --- ---Men55 40 28Women44 49 39--- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 --- --- ---Democrats14 83 Independents48 43 Republicans87 11 --- --- ---Men55 40 28Women44 49 39--- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 Republicans87 11 --- --- ---Men55 40 28Women44 49 39--- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 --- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 --- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41

* 1/31 and 1/16 polls combined.

Stable

While not strong, Bush's rating is stable: He's ranged between 47 percent and 52 percent approval in 15 ABC News/Washington Post polls since last February, and his rating today almost precisely matches its 2004 average, a 50 percent to 47 percent split. That's about the same as Clinton's worst year, 1993.

While higher would be better, all Bush's recent predecessors have seen worse ratings: Clinton's career low was 43 percent; Bush's father's, 33 percent; Ronald Reagan's, 42 percent; Jimmy Carter's, 28 percent; Gerald Ford's, 37 percent; and Richard Nixon's, 23 percent. Some of those make 50 percent look practically popular.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 26-31, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,204 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

You can find more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.

It's far from a soaring score: At 50 percent, Bush's job approval rating is just three points above his career low (47 percent last spring and summer), 42 points below his career high (92 percent shortly after the 9/11 attacks) and 14 points below his career average.

The successful elections in Iraq may yet have an effect, especially if they contribute to improved security there; handling the situation in Iraq has been the public's top priority since the election. This poll was conducted Wednesday through Monday, with interviews both before and after the Iraq vote.

Deep partisanship is at play in Bush's ratings: While 87 percent of Republicans approve of Bush's work in office, just 14 percent of Democrats agree. But partisanship isn't new, and Bush's real challenge is that he gets just 48 percent approval from independents. At this point eight years ago, Bill Clinton's rating among independents was 13 points higher, 61 percent.

Groups

Partisan divisions aren't the only ones. Bush's approval rating in this latest survey is 11 points higher among men than among women. He does especially well with married men (62 percent approval), followed by married women, then unmarried men. As in the fall election, he's weakest among unmarried women, with just 37 percent approval.

Bush has 55 percent approval in the "red" states -- those he won in November -- compared with 43 percent in the "blue" states, won by John Kerry. Bush's rating is lower in Kerry's home region, the Northeast (39 percent), compared with elsewhere. It's 14 points worse among lower- rather than upper-income adults. And it's particularly weak among minorities: Fifty-five percent of whites approve of his work, while 30 percent of minorities (and just 17 percent of blacks) agree.

There's also a striking gap by residential area: Bush has a 60 percent approval rating from people living in rural areas (about a fifth of the population), but just 42 percent from big-city dwellers (about a sixth of all Americans).

Partisanship does inform many of these. Blacks, women, Northeasterners, lower-income Americans, city dwellers -- all the groups that like Bush least -- have among the most Democrats in their ranks.


Bush Rating
Approve Disapprove % Democrat
--- --- ---
All50 45 34%
--- --- ---
Democrats14 83
Independents48 43
Republicans87 11
--- --- ---
Men55 40 28
Women44 49 39
--- --- ---
Married men62 35 27
Married women53 40 34
Unmarried men46 48 30
Unmarried women37 57 44
--- --- ---
Northeast39 55 40
West47 47 34
South54 41 32
Midwest55 40 30
--- --- ---
Red states55 40 31
Blue states43 50 37
--- --- ---
Income <$35K42 52 40
>$75K56 42 31
--- --- ---
Whites55 40 29
Non-whites30 64 52
Blacks*17 78 67
--- --- ---
Rural60 32 26
Town50 44 33
Suburb47 50 36
Big city42 53 41
Approve Disapprove % Democrat--- --- ---All50 45 34%--- --- ---Democrats14 83 Independents48 43 Republicans87 11 --- --- ---Men55 40 28Women44 49 39--- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 --- --- ---Democrats14 83 Independents48 43 Republicans87 11 --- --- ---Men55 40 28Women44 49 39--- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 Republicans87 11 --- --- ---Men55 40 28Women44 49 39--- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 --- --- ---Married men62 35 27Married women53 40 34Unmarried men46 48 30Unmarried women37 57 44--- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 --- --- ---Northeast39 55 40West47 47 34South54 41 32Midwest55 40 30--- --- ---Red states55 40 31Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 Blue states43 50 37--- --- ---Income <$35K42 52 40>$75K56 42 31--- --- ---Whites55 40 29Non-whites30 64 52Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41 Blacks*17 78 67--- --- ---Rural60 32 26Town50 44 33Suburb47 50 36Big city42 53 41

* 1/31 and 1/16 polls combined.

Stable

While not strong, Bush's rating is stable: He's ranged between 47 percent and 52 percent approval in 15 ABC News/Washington Post polls since last February, and his rating today almost precisely matches its 2004 average, a 50 percent to 47 percent split. That's about the same as Clinton's worst year, 1993.

While higher would be better, all Bush's recent predecessors have seen worse ratings: Clinton's career low was 43 percent; Bush's father's, 33 percent; Ronald Reagan's, 42 percent; Jimmy Carter's, 28 percent; Gerald Ford's, 37 percent; and Richard Nixon's, 23 percent. Some of those make 50 percent look practically popular.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 26-31, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,204 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

You can find more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.

--- --- ---

Democrats14 83

Independents48 43

Republicans87 11

--- --- ---

Men55 40 28

Women44 49 39

--- --- ---

Married men62 35 27

Married women53 40 34

Unmarried men46 48 30

Unmarried women37 57 44

--- --- ---

Northeast39 55 40

West47 47 34

South54 41 32

Midwest55 40 30

--- --- ---

Red states55 40 31

Blue states43 50 37

--- --- ---

Income <$35K42 52 40

>$75K56 42 31

--- --- ---

Whites55 40 29

Non-whites30 64 52

Blacks*17 78 67

--- --- ---

Rural60 32 26

Town50 44 33

Suburb47 50 36

Big city42 53 41

* 1/31 and 1/16 polls combined.

Stable

While not strong, Bush's rating is stable: He's ranged between 47 percent and 52 percent approval in 15 ABC News/Washington Post polls since last February, and his rating today almost precisely matches its 2004 average, a 50 percent to 47 percent split. That's about the same as Clinton's worst year, 1993.

While higher would be better, all Bush's recent predecessors have seen worse ratings: Clinton's career low was 43 percent; Bush's father's, 33 percent; Ronald Reagan's, 42 percent; Jimmy Carter's, 28 percent; Gerald Ford's, 37 percent; and Richard Nixon's, 23 percent. Some of those make 50 percent look practically popular.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 26-31, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,204 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

You can find more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.

Red states55 40 31

Blue states43 50 37

--- --- ---

Income <$35K42 52 40

>$75K56 42 31

--- --- ---

Whites55 40 29

Non-whites30 64 52

Blacks*17 78 67

--- --- ---

Rural60 32 26

Town50 44 33

Suburb47 50 36

Big city42 53 41

* 1/31 and 1/16 polls combined.

Stable

While not strong, Bush's rating is stable: He's ranged between 47 percent and 52 percent approval in 15 ABC News/Washington Post polls since last February, and his rating today almost precisely matches its 2004 average, a 50 percent to 47 percent split. That's about the same as Clinton's worst year, 1993.

While higher would be better, all Bush's recent predecessors have seen worse ratings: Clinton's career low was 43 percent; Bush's father's, 33 percent; Ronald Reagan's, 42 percent; Jimmy Carter's, 28 percent; Gerald Ford's, 37 percent; and Richard Nixon's, 23 percent. Some of those make 50 percent look practically popular.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 26-31, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,204 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

You can find more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

You can find more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.