The Note: And You Know Who You Were Then
— -- WASHINGTON, July 19
NEWS SUMMARY
There might be a Supreme Court announcement today; the timing might have been changed to move attention away from the Fitzgerald investigation; and the President might pick someone whose name has not been very much in circulation before now.
And/but from the warrens of the Department of Justice to the halls of the Hill to some of the smarter conservative websites (www.redstate.org), the buzz this morning is all about Judge Edith Brown Clement.
There is no official comment or confirmation from anyone who really knows, though some folks in a position to be among the first told are starting to tell us that she is the pick.
We can report, based on independent sourcing, that she sat down privately with President Bush at the White House within the fast few days.
It is entirely possible that all this buzz is wrong and that Clement was, in fact, interviewed and NOT chosen… and was informed about not being chosen… which fed all this…
But that is NOT what the buzz sounds like to our veteran ears. At this writing, no one else is known to have been interviewed, although, as the President himself said, not everyone would require such a meeting.
(Early CW on Clement: The less known of the two Ediths. Easily confirmable. A Southern charmer. A lack of a paper trail. Pro-business conservative. Sympathetic to civil, but not criminal, defendants when she was a district court judge. Conservative activists not sure of her stance on substantive due process and/or Roe v. Wade.)
And ABC News' Ed O'Keefe reported last night that Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA), late for the annual Santorum-Specter staff softball game, confirmed that he met with President Bush regarding a potential Supreme Court nominee.
Specter refused to provide details of the meeting but strongly hinted that a final decision has been made.
Specter received the "invitation" to the meeting yesterday afternoon and initially declined due to the aforementioned softball game.
Apparently, the White House made it clear he should attend the meeting and the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee changed his plans.
Specter refused to say if any other congressional members were at the meeting and did not outline its length.
When asked about timing, Specter only smiled but reminded the ABC and CNN cameras present that his last chemotherapy treatment is Friday and today is Monday (i.e., Tuesday-Thursday are the dates to watch).
At that point, a senior member of Specter's staff commented, "We'll be in early tomorrow." Another item: Attorney General Alberto Gonzales cancelled a planned visit to the US Attorney's office in Boston yesterday and sped through an appearance in Portland, Maine to return to Washington for hastily schedule meetings. (He was also seen leaving the White House at 8:16 am ET this morning.)
Let's be frank: it is very hard to imagine that the Democrats will filibuster Judge Clement, or that any more than a handful of the Republican Gang of Seven wouldn't vote for the nuclear option to quash said filibuster.
Aside from Judge Michael Luttig, who has turned into the left's do-or-die bugbear, or Edith Hollan Jones, who has a long record of opposition to Roe, we don't think the Dems will be spoiling for the fight in the end.
Mere ideological disagreement won't be enough to sustain a filibuster, so if the left is aghast at the prospect of a nominee being confirmed, Republicans fear they will dig for dirt to tar the pick personally.
The only way, in this scenario, that Democrats can successfully stop a nominee is to raise substantive questions about their ethics.
So, while we wait for what many think is a trigger about to be pulled:
President Bush welcomes Australian Prime Minister John Howard to the White House at 10:45 am ET. A joint press availability follows at 11:50 am ET. Meanwhile, Laura Bush and Janette Howard visit the Winslow Homer exhibit at the National Gallery.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh addresses a joint session of Congress at 10:00 am ET. Following the joint session, House and Senate conferees meet to continue work on the energy bill, the Senate breaks for party policy luncheons (with a bite-at-the-apple chance for questions from the press), and the Senate tries to finalize a foreign ops bill.
Karl Rove is expected to attend a fundraiser tonight for Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA). (1700 Pennsylvania Avenue Ste. 950. Just look for the MoveOn protests.) Speaking of: the folks at MoveOn, they tell us they'll release a "television ad" today about Rove's role in the Plame case.
The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a 10:30 am ET hearing on the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act.
At 11:30 am ET, Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ) announce the introduction of a comprehensive border security and immigration reform bill.
In yet another effort to boost party support among Hispanic voters, RNC Chair Ken Mehlman and DNC Chair Howard Dean speak to the National Council of La Raza conference in Philadelphia today.
Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA) and Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) speak today at Liberty in North Korea's conference, "Freedom For All Koreans".
SCOTUS: who's he gonna pick? and when?:
The Wall Street Journal's Cummings and Bravin have the timing issue most brazenly paraded: "Some White House advisers [Note the weasel word!!] are urging the president to expedite his announcement to deflect attention from a growing scandal…."
"'The Rove situation has accelerated it,' said a Republican lawyer who consults the White House on judicial issues. 'They would like to get something that will knock it off the front page.'"
Elisabeth Bumiller (under a ballsy New York Times headline of "Announcement of Supreme Court Nominee May Be Soon") has Clement as a "leading" candidate and says she was interviewed at the White House "about a month ago." LINK
From Peter Baker's take today: "Some Republican strategists in touch with the White House increasingly believe Bush will pick a woman, particularly since first lady Laura Bush said last week that she favors replacing O'Connor with another woman. But several male candidates are still mentioned, including former deputy attorney general Larry D. Thompson and Judges John G. Roberts of the D.C. Circuit and J. Michael Luttig of the 4th Circuit." LINK
This Hill article conforms with some of our reporting that conservative activists close to the White House have been basically told not to worry about Judge Gonzales, which they've interpreted as a sign he is off the short list . LINK
Judge Maura Corrigan is also mentioned as a possibility.
The Washington Times' Joseph Curl reports that "At least two Republican strategists with close ties to the White House said they expect the nomination to come before the end of the week. A third strategist said the White House wants to divert news coverage from Karl Rove, a Bush aide at the center of a media frenzy over who leaked the identity of a CIA official." LINK
Curl also has some conservatives pointing to property rights as their top-most concern in a post O'Connor world. LINK
A new SCOTUS blog to check out: LINK
SCOTUS: Judge Edith Brown Clement:
Legal Times' Broida and Henning on Judge Clement: LINK
"Perhaps the person on the short list who confounds conservatives and liberals alike is Judge Edith Brown Clement of the 5th Circuit, who has been on the bench since 2001. To her benefit and detriment, she makes both conservatives and liberals uneasy because she has not written many notable opinions, especially in hot-button areas like abortion and religious freedom."
"Two of the most noteworthy opinions written by Clement are in the area of criminal rights and law enforcement. In Traver v. City of Edna, she wrote for a unanimous panel that allowed the plaintiff to sue police officers for violating his due process rights when they slammed his head against a car door during his arrest. In Hearn v. Dretke, a habeas case that involved a death row inmate who claimed mental retardation, she found that he was entitled to a lawyer to help with the claim -- a conclusion, she noted in the opinion, she was forced to reach because of a Supreme Court ruling in 2002 that found executions of the mentally ill were unconstitutional."
The AP singles Clement out as "a" leading candidate and says only sitting judges (not politicians) are under consideration. LINK
Lois Romano on the five men and women of the 5th circuit floated as potential nominees. LINK
The Wall Street Journal ed board likes Edith Jones and does not like David Souter.
The Plame leak investigation: raising the bar?:
The Wall Street Journal's Squeo and McKinnon break news when they say regarding the vital State Department memo, "The paragraph in the memo discussing Ms. Wilson's involvement in her husband's trip is marked at the beginning with a letter designation in brackets to indicate the information shouldn't be shared, according to a person familiar with the memo. Such a designation would indicate to a reader that the information was sensitive. The memo, though, doesn't specifically describe Ms. Wilson as an undercover agent…."
"According to the person familiar with the document, it didn't include a distribution list." The story says Ari Fleischer didn't return Novak's call, per "a person familiar with his account," which couldn't be that many people.
Ed Chen and Richard Schmitt of the Los Angeles Times parse the President's threshold setting language and confirm Newsweek's reporting about Rove's initial FBI interview. LINK
"Rove did not mention a conversation he had about Plame with Time magazine reporter Matthew Cooper in the days before Plame's name surfaced in the news media."
"The source said Rove later mentioned the conversation to investigators, who did not appear to be aware of it when Rove made the revelation."
"An agitated President Bush back-pedaled yesterday on his vow to fire anyone in the White House involved in outing a CIA spy, now saying aides will get booted only if they broke the law," lead DeFrank and Bazinet of the New York Daily News. LINK
The Post's Allen and VandeHei have the President allegedly changing the standard to a "higher threshold," and even as they wade through the President's statements on the issue, they apparently did not get denials from the White Hous that Bush spoke his careful words deliberately. LINK
And they have this exclusively regarding the message that Bob Novak reportedly left for Ari Fleischer on AF1: "Fleischer has told prosecutors he did not return the columnist's call, the source said."
(Most significant about that: someone speaking on Mr. Fleischer's behalf.)
The New York Times' Sanger/Stevenson don't see a wholly new POTUS standard, and they can't reach Ari's lawyer. LINK
The folks at Bloomberg get what is still rare: a vaguely unsupportive quote from a GOP MOC:
"A few Republicans, while supportive of Bush, were more reserved. `The real issue is whether or not it's true,' said Pennsylvania Representative Phil English, who said he's known Rove since 1976. Democrats `have every right to insist this matter be fully investigated. It remains to be seen what kind of detail he knew,' he said."
House of Labor:
Just asking…
Which senior AFL-CIO official is said to be telling folks that he will soon succeed John Sweeney as president? . . .
Which two current AFL-CIO unions may join C2W after the convention?
Which paragraph in this story will most upset NTEU and AFGE? LINK
On A2 of the print edition, the Wall Street Journal's Kris Maher looks at the current state of AFL machinations, and the attempt to bargain for industry wide pay standards.
2008:
The Des Moines Register's Thomas Beaumont glances back over the past few days of Iowa's national spotlight status. Commending each other for bipartisan efforts -- that they believe could set an example on Capitol Hill -- the governors harmonized on education criteria as well as on requests for a sex offender registry and solicitation of a security funding increase. The torch (well, chairmanship) of the NGA now passes from Virginia Gov. Mark Warner to Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. LINK
Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen shakes his finger at Washington D.C. politicians for focusing on (arguably) trivial matters while state officials now exiting Iowa didn't bother with partisanship, but instead took up policy issues that Capitol Hill seems to have tucked neatly away with voters' concerns. The morale of Yepsen's story: don't be surprised if you see 2008 repercussions from such congressional deviation. LINK
2008: Democrats:
USA Today's Bill D. Nichols has the Cover Story in USA Today and it's all about the issue of Hillary Clinton's qualifications to be commander in chief. LINK
Daryl Fears in the Washington Post devotes a story to Sen. Clinton's NCLR speech, with wide-eyed admiration. LINK
"A new group that boasts three veterans of the Clinton administration is running television, radio and newspaper ads arguing for reform, rather than repeal, of the estate tax," reports Roll Call's Chris Cillizza.
"The organization, known as the Coalition for America's Priorities, was formed by longtime Clinton confidant Steve Richetti. Gene Sperling, a former national economic adviser for Clinton, and Mark Penn — pollster for both former President Bill Clinton and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) — are also allied with the group.:
Thomas Beaumont also writes that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's 2006 plans definitely include the Hawkeye State. The current DGA chairman, Richardson speculates that, if another Democrat takes over Vilsack's post in 2006, the Blue party could potentially be rainbow high come 2008 primary time. LINK
Richardson is unhappy with the new Real ID Act, calling it a "short-sighted, ill-conceived initiative." He says his state will challenge the legislation on constitutional grounds. LINK
2008: Republicans:
The Boston Herald reports that Gov. Romney has a 13-person "image team" that costs the state $350,000 dollars. The Herald points to Romney's recent busy schedule and presidential aspirations as the reason for new hires within the team. Romney spokesperson Julie Teer denied that the staffers were involved in "event production," and added, "this operation is not larger than any previous governor." LINK
The New York Post devotes six Kenneth Lovett paragraphs to reviewing how Iowans felt about the Pataki visit, with questions about liberal views front and center in their take and no Healy swoon. link
Al Baker of the New York Times looks at Governor Pataki's Romneyian choice on the emergency contraception bill (but the Times is no Globe, if you know what we mean….) LINK
The Times ed board throws down the gauntlet on the bill. LINK
2006:
The Los Angeles Times' Fiore looks at one of the Democrats' favorite targets-du-jour, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) LINK
". . .tangling with some of the Senate's most prominent liberals could buttress his image as a conservative hero, providing Santorum, who has a reputation as an effective campaigner, with ammunition of his own."
"'I am pretty sure that his strategists are gleefully collecting all the things that Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Barney Frank are saying about him,' said Duffy of the Cook Political Report. 'I suspect they will use them in direct mail sooner or later.'"
Roll Call's Preston looks at basically the same thing.
The Hill's Peter Savodnik looks at the second-quarter fundraising numbers and writes that GOP retirements in the House, may not be as prevalent as DCCC Chairman Emanuel had hoped. LINK
2005:
Please raise your hand if you are a New York political reporter and have booked an October vacation.
"Mayor Michael Bloomberg has a 60 percent approval among New York City voters and now tops all Democratic challengers by 15 percentage points or more, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today," so begins the Quinnipiac press release.
Quinnipiac also Notes that is Mayor Bloomberg's highest approval rating since its March 2002 "honeymoon" poll.
Some questions to be pondered today:
1. If the sense of inevitability starts seeping into the coverage, will that make Mayor Bloomberg more prone to a politically harmful gaffe?
2. Can Fernando Ferrer (who bests all of his Democratic primary opponents by more than a 2-to-1 margin in the latest Quinnipiac poll) hit that magic 40 percent mark and avoid a runoff?
3. What might a Ferrer vs. Miller runoff look and sound like?
Here's the AP write-up: LINK
Politics:
The New York Times's Dao on the NRA's cancellation of their 2007 Columbus, OH venue because of a new assault weapons law. LINK
The New Republic's Ryan Lizza, writing in New York Magazine, has everything you want to know and more about Mr. Mallory Factor and his burgeoning conservative empire in the Empire State. LINK
A must-read for 2008 GOP aspirants and many others.
"Appearing relaxed and confident, (Al) Gore dove with aplomb into the pitchman phase of his new career as a budding media baron," writes the Los Angeles Times' Scott Collins on Gore's Beverly Hills press tour for his Current TV, set to launch August 1. LINK
The Hill's Geoff Earle sizes up the battle for a Senate GOP leadership post between Sens. Cornyn and Ensign. LINK
California Democrats are not ready to let go of Governor Schwarzenegger's consulting contract with a magazine publisher despite the Governor's termination of that contract. The Los Angeles Times has the details. LINK
Attention television bookers: "Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (Md.) last week became the fourth Republican to co-sponsor a measure that calls on President Bush to develop and implement an exit strategy for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq," reports The Hill's Cusack. LINK
An announcement we love:
"Harvard University's Institute of Politics, located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, today announced the selection of a diverse and experienced group of individuals for fellowships this fall."
"The following Resident Fellows will join the Institute for the fall semester and lead weekly, not-for-credit study groups on a range of political topics. Study group information will be released later this summer."
• Lisa Davis, Senior Advisor to the CCO, Integrated Communications, AARP and a former top communications counsel for the Clinton-Gore '96 re-election campaign;
• Martin Frost, former U.S. Representative (D-TX);
• Joe Gaylord, veteran Republican political consultant and strategist;
• Benjamin Ginsberg, Partner, Patton Boggs, LLP and former National Counsel, Bush-Cheney'00 and '04 presidential campaigns;
• Bob Graham, former Governor of Florida and U.S. Senator (D-FL);
• Cheryl Jacques, former President and Executive Director, Human Rights Campaign;
• Adam Nagourney, Chief Political Correspondent, New York Times.