The Note: Confidence, Man

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 7

NEWS SUMMARY

If you care about the political health of the ruling party, ask yourself how much confidence you have in the following:

1. Rove attorney Luskin's judgment and strategic vision.

2. Harriet Miers' capacity to be a strong witness.

3. The ability of congressional Republicans to make spending cuts that will help their 2006 electoral prospects.

4. The rate at which Iraqi military forces are being trained.

5. The skill level of the White House to keep the Miers nomination moving forward, with no backsliding.

6. The DeLay and Abramoff (and Frist) investigations concluding without serious collateral damage.

7. The Democratic Party ignoring the excellent advice it got yesterday from Galston and Kamarck (louder than Shields and Yarnell LINK, but just as clear).

8. Patrick Fitzgerald's willingness to not indict for indictment's sake.

9. The federal government's progress on bird flu, gas prices, and Katrina relief.

10. A compassionate conservative, a reformer with results, and a charge to keep -- all rolled into one.

The grand jury investigating the leak of a CIA operative's name in 2003 meets at 11:00 am ET at the federal courthouse in Washington, DC, but Karl Rove is not expected to testify today. By mid-morning, the stake-outs that have been stuck will be flying all over the perimeter of the fabled building.

President Bush's big ticket item today is his 2:00 pm ET meeting with vaccine manufacturers in the Roosevelt Room. The President also meets with the Hungarian Prime Minister at 10:00 am ET in the Oval Office and makes remarks on Hispanic Heritage Month in the East Room at 2:35 pm ET.

Democratic Sens. Landrieu (LA), Lincoln (AR), and others hold a 10:15 am ET media availability on Katrina recovery efforts.

ABC's Dan Arnall reports, "In a bit of a surprise this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the nation shed just 35,000 jobs during September. Most economists had been expecting a much bigger job loss after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast."

"In addition to the lower losses for September, there were significant upward revisions for both July and August jobs reports. New numbers for those months show the nation added 77K jobs which were not previously reported."

The "Gasoline for America's Security Act of 2005" is the only piece of legislation to be considered on the House floor today.

The Senate will move to final passage of the Defense Appropriations bill today.

The gubernatorial candidates in Virginia will meet on Sunday for their only statewide televised debate of the campaign.

Sen. Clinton (D-NY) will be inducted into the National Women's Hall of Fame in Seneca Falls, NY this weekend. Events get underway tonight at 7:00 pm ET.

On Sunday, make sure you catch "This Week" for an exclusive interview with Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT), when the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee address the grumbling from both parties over the President's Supreme Court pick and the impending battle over the confirmation of Harriet Miers.

And as conservatives roar over the Miers nomination, George Will goes inside the lion's den for an at-home interview with conservative leader William F. Buckley. No punches pulled as Buckley sounds off on Iraq, the Supreme Court, the state of the conservative movement, and the impact of the 24 hour news cycle. You won't want to miss it.

The Fitzgerald investigation:

ABC News' Jonathan Karl spoke with Rove's lawyer, Robert Luskin, on Thursday and reports the following:

1) Rove is not testifying today.

2) Luskin says the planned additional Rove testimony comes at Fitzgerald's request. Rove offered to cooperate in July and, Luskin says, "They have indicated to us they would like to accept that offer." He says categorically that Rove has not asked to testify to clarify or correct previous testimony.

3) He says Fitzgerald has sent no target letter or indicated in any way that Rove is a "target."

5) He refused to comment on whether or not Fitzgerald has sent a letter saying he could not guarantee Rove would not be indicted, but "We've never asked for any guarantees."

A basic fact: no one on the outside knows what Fitzgerald's theory of the case is. So we can't tell you what will happen. So please stop asking us.

Another basic fact: congressional Republicans and others close to the White House are N-E-R-V-O-U-S.

The Washington Post's Leonnig and VandeHei have this detail: "A source close to Rove said Bush's chief political adviser and his legal team are now genuinely concerned he could face charges. But, the source said, his lawyers are hoping that Fitzgerald's warning of the chance of indictment is simply the move of a conservative, by-the-book prosecutor wrapping up a high-profile investigation. Prosecutorial guidelines require prosecutors to warn witnesses before they appear before a grand jury if there is a chance they could face criminal charges." LINK

Karl Rove is not the only person to provide further testimony in the case. The New York Times reports that Judith Miller will be speaking with Fitzgerald again soon. LINK

David Johnston's New York Times account describes a perception shift brought about by Rove's anticipated additional testimony.

"Mr. Fitzgerald's conversations with lawyers in recent days have cast a cloud over the inquiry, sweeping away the confidence once expressed by a number of officials and their lawyers who have said that he was unlikely to find any illegality."

"In coming days, the lawyers said, Mr. Fitzgerald is likely to request that several other White House officials return to the grand jury to testify about their actions in the case -- appearances that are believed to be pivotal as the prosecutor proceeds toward a charging decision."

"Mr. Fitzgerald is also re-examining grand jury testimony by Mr. Libby, the lawyers said, but it is unknown whether he has been asked to appear again before the grand jury."

More Johnston: "Recently lawyers said that they believed the prosecutor may be applying new legal theories to bring charges in the case."

"One new approach appears to involve the possible use of Chapter 37 of the federal espionage and censorship law, which makes it a crime for anyone who 'willfully communicates, delivers, transfers or causes to be communicated' to someone 'not entitled to receive it' classified information relating the national defense matters."

"Under this broad statute, a government official or a private citizen who passed classified information to anyone else in or outside the government could potentially be charged with a felony, if they transferred the information to someone without a security clearance to receive it."The Los Angeles Times' Hamburger and Wallsten provide some context. LINK

"Rove's return to the grand jury adds to a growing list of woes for Republicans. Other investigations are proceeding against Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), who had to step down as House majority leader last week after a Texas indictment on a charge of violating state campaign finance laws. The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating stock trades by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), and a prominent Republican lobbyist, Jack Abramoff, is under scrutiny in separate cases."

"It occurs at a time when the White House counsel, Harriet E. Miers, who would normally coordinate the legal response to the indictment of a White House official, is preoccupied with her nomination to the Supreme Court."

"At a dinner Thursday night celebrating the 50th anniversary of the conservative magazine National Review, some attendees privately expressed nervousness about the possibility of legal action against Rove or other White House officials."

Be sure to Note the Perino/Mehlman/Norquist/Weyrich pushback on Rove's ability to attend to his legal needs and the President's political ones all at the same time.

And this: "Rove has also remained engaged in politics, attending a fundraiser last month in North Dakota. On Wednesday, he was the headliner at a reception for the Dallas County Republican Party attended by 300 fans."

"'He got a roaring reception,' said an official from the local GOP. 'He's always welcome in Texas.'"

The Wall Street Journal's Squeo and McKinnon take the news that Rove is set to testify before the grand jury again as "the strongest suggestion yet that Mr. Rove remains enmeshed in the probe."

Judy Keen and Mark Memmott report in the Nation's Newspaper that Rove's lawyer says his client has "absolutely, positively" not received a letter notifying him that he is a target of the investigation. "'The prosecutor has affirmed to me that he has made no charging decision,' (Robert) Luskin said." LINK

John Solomon of the AP write-up: LINK

Kenneth R. Bazinet and Thomas M. DeFrank write in the New York Daily News that Solomon Wisenberg, a former deputy to independent counsel Ken Starr, said it "sounds like Rove may be closer to being indicted." LINK

Conservatives rethinking President Bush:

The Washington Post's Dan Balz turns in a must-read analysis of why conservatives fear that the President "may have jeopardized their dream of fundamentally shifting the court by nominating someone with no known experience in constitutional issues rather than any one of a number of better-known jurists with unquestioned records." LINK

In a Baltimore Sun op-ed, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich offers a full-throated endorsement of trusting President Bush on Harriet Miers on the basis that the President has stayed "remarkably true to conservative principles on every major decision he has made since winning the Republican primary." LINK

It should be Noted, however, that Balz has Gingrich at the end of his news analysis in the Washington Post saying that despite his op-ed he understands "why his ideological allies doubt the President. And he fears the White House may underestimate the reasons: 'Do they understand that beyond getting past the unhappiness with this choice, there is a profound sense of discontent within the conservative movement?'"

Writing under a "Withdraw This Nominee" header in the Washington Post, Charles Krauthammer accuses the President of ducking a fight on the most important domestic question dividing liberals from conservatives: "the principles by which one should read and interpret the Constitution." LINK

Former Bush speechwriter David Frum complained on his blog yesterday that Miers "is being chosen for her next job in exactly the same way and for the same reasons that Michael Brown was chosen for FEMA." LINK

Advancing what Bill Kristol said on Fox News yesterday, the Washington Post's Dana Milbank has Kristol saying that the "easiest way" to save the marriage between the right and the White House would be "if Ms. Miers decided to withdraw her nomination." LINK Kristol made his point on "Today" as well.

In her look at Administration (and allies) efforts to shore up the conservative base, Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times reports that White House officials think the idea of the nomination being withdrawn is "preposterous." LINK

Charles Hurt and Ralph Z. Hallow of the Washington Times talk with Al Mohler Jr., president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, KY who says that Karl Rove's sole ability to convince Christian conservatives to have faith in Miers "testifies to the effectiveness of the White House effort." LINK

Miers: nut graphs suggesting confirmation prospects:

From the Los Angeles Times: "Barring unforeseen revelations, Miers is likely to win confirmation if the White House continues to press her nomination. Most Republicans and a few Democrats have indicated they are inclined to support her, which means it would take the defection of a dozen or more Republicans -- or an unlikely Democratic filibuster -- to scuttle her confirmation." LINK

USA Today's Mark Memmott stands firm in his conviction that despite all the hoo-ha, Miers will be confirmed. LINK

"The White House effort to soothe conservatives isn't due to concerns that Miers won't be confirmed by the Senate. Bush's fellow Republicans hold 55 of the Senate's 100 seats, and it's possible several moderate Democrats would support Miers."

Miers: key players react:

Sheryl Gay Stolberg's New York Times front-page write up of the Brownback/Miers meeting ends with a look at the different standards the Senator from Kansas seems to be applying to Miers than he did to Roberts. LINK

"Although Chief Justice Roberts took essentially the same position as Ms. Miers in discussing Griswold and Roe, and Mr. Brownback voted for him, the senator has said consistently that he wanted the nominee for the O'Connor seat to have 'a clear track record.'"

"Asked to compare the two, Mr. Brownback described the chief justice as 'a rock star of a lawyer.' Of Ms. Miers, he said, 'You're really following Elvis here.'"

The Los Angeles Times has Paul Weyrich still unconvinced, Dan Coats' evangelical faith, and Brownback's post-meeting comments, described as "a slap in the face" to the White House. LINK

Dr. Dobson gets some Los Angeles Times front-page profile treatment today in a piece that looks beyond his political power and focuses on the thousands of daily calls and emails from people reaching out to the Focus on the Family leader for ministerial guidance. LINK

Jane Norman of the Des Moines Register writes that Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) rebukes the conservatives assiduously casting stones in the direction of Harriet Miers. LINK

The AP reports that Sen. Santorum's unusually quiet demeanor around the Miers nomination may be because of his upcoming election. LINK

Miers: politics:

According to "several people with knowledge of the exchange," the Washington Post reports that when Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT) and Harriet Miers met on Wednesday, the Ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee asked Miers to name her favorite Supreme Court justices. LINK

"Miers responded with 'Warren' -- which led Leahy to ask her whether she meant former Chief Justice Earl Warren, a liberal icon, or former Chief Justice Warren Burger, a conservative who voted for Roe v. Wade . Miers said she meant Warren Burger, the sources said."

We remain perplexed by this tale, but if we were in charge of preparing for the Miers murder boards, we would take stock.

Miers: editorials and op-eds:

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne thinks conservatives are hypocrites for stifling discussion of Roberts' faith while playing up Miers' evangelical Christianity. LINK

Miers: bio:

The Los Angeles Times looks at the divide in Harriet Miers' Dallas church as the splinter group (of which she is a part) prepares to meet "for a fifth week as spiritual nomads." LINK

Miers: investigative:

In a good reminder that most people are more interested in getting to the results they want than in adhering to a consistent set of constitutional principles, Wall Street Journal's Jess Bravin has a must-read look at Harriet Miers' role in blocking an appellate court from using the 12th Amendment to invalidate the results of the 2000 presidential election on the basis that Dick Cheney was registered in Texas -- not Wyoming -- until shortly before he was picked to be Bush's running mate.

"President Bush cites many accomplishments of Harriet Miers to explain her nomination to the Supreme Court. One the White House doesn't mention is her successful argument during the disputed 2000 election that Dick Cheney is definitely not a Texan. The way she did that was striking: Her legal team successfully persuaded a judge to take what her brief described as a 'broad and inclusive' reading of the Constitution. That runs counter to a conservative tradition of legal interpretation that calls for a relatively narrow reading of constitutional texts."

The New York Times continues its look into Miers' time at the Texas Lottery Commission and reports that Larry Littwin will likely play a role in the confirmation process. LINK

"Contacted by phone in New York, Mr. Littwin said this week that under a settlement he could not discuss his case but that he would testify before the Senate if called. A Democratic staff member at the Senate Judiciary Committee said the panel was likely to talk to him and others who had worked with Ms. Miers."

Morning show summary:

"White House Woes" was the second headline on the "Today" show this morning highlighting Karl Rove's return to the grand jury and Bill Kristol's call for her nomination to be withdrawn.

In his interview Kristol said Rove has been understandably distracted by the leak investigation and some of the White House political errors over the last couple of months may have something to do with his need to dedicate time to his legal woes. (Administration officials tell the Los Angeles Times and ABC News that Rove remains fully engaged.)

Kristol on urging withdrawal of the Miers nomination: "I think she should consider it. The nomination was a mistake." When asked why he couldn't simply trust the President on this pick, Kristol added, "He's a good president, but he's not a great constitutional scholar."

Big Casino budget politics:

Timesman Carl Hulse offers a look at the budgetary belt tightening underway to help pay for hurricane recovery efforts. LINK

Read this closely "'Unfortunately, the White House is working against me behind the scenes, and I resent that, considering how I have worked for the White House in the past several years,' said Mr. Grassley, who would play a pivotal role in moving any spending and tax cut package through Congress."

Also read David Rogers in the Wall Street Journal on this general topic.

The politics of national security:

The Los Angeles Times' Vieth and Meyer place some possible political motivations for Thursday's presidential speech pretty high up in their coverage. The duo Notes the President's "grander terms," but that no new arguments were presented. LINK

And here's some skepticism on the list of thwarted incidents presented by the White House: ". . .several senior law enforcement officials interviewed later questioned whether many of the incidents on the list constituted an imminent threat to public safety and said that authorities had not disrupted any operational terrorist plot within the United States since the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon."

The Washington Post's Baker and Glasser write that the Presidents' Thursday speech was "intended to shore up sagging public support for the war in Iraq" and to "address more extensively than ever before the philosophical framework undergirding Islamic extremism." LINK

If President Bush vetoes the anti-torture measure recently passed in the Senate, he "threatens to declare to the world his Administration's moral bankruptcy," writes the Washington Post ed board. LINK

The Army has embarked on a six-year plan to boost its combat power by 40,000 troops while reducing the number of non-combat jobs, the Washington Post and others report. LINK

The Washington Post's Al Kamen has a round-up of scathing reviews of Karen Hughes' trip to the Middle East, as well as his own cheeky take on her speaking fees, first reported by time.com. LINK

DeLay:

The Washington Post's R. Jeffrey Smith reports that Rep. Tom DeLay and James W. Ellis, his principal fundraiser, have so far given "slightly different accounts" of the substance of their discussion on a key day. "Ellis's attorney, Jonathan D. Pauerstein, said that Ellis recalls that their Oct. 2 discussion did not concern or involve Texas or Texas candidates. But DeLay, interviewed last weekend on 'Fox News Sunday,' said that during a 'scheduling meeting' with Ellis in October, Ellis said while they were leaving his office that 'by the way, we sent money' to Washington." LINK

Samantha Levine of the Houston Chronicle writes that DeLay's chances of returning to his post are very high if his charges have been cleared by January, and Speaker Hastert has asked that members of Congress to hold off on any type of petitions until that time. LINK

The Houston Chronicle's R.G. Ratcliffe reports on Rep. DeLay and his attorney's possible inconsistent language on the charges against DeLay.LINK

Mr. DeLay affirms to Stephen Dinan of the Washington Times that, regardless of his legal troubles, he will run for reelection to the House. LINK

Ethics:Democratic Reps. Conyers (MI) and Miller (CA) are calling for an outside special counsel to take over the Abramoff investigation, reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK

Dean's Democrats: Kamarck and Galston, Together Again:

Sixteen years ago, Bill Galston and Elaine Kamarck wrote the influential paper, "The Politics of Evasion," which argued that the Democrats could not return to power until they addressed the image that they were soft on crime and in-love with welfare.

Yesterday, at the Willard Hotel in Washington, DC, Galston and Kamarck released the results of a new study, "The Politics of Polarization," which once again warns Democrats not to tilt too far to the left.

The report was released at a breakfast event sponsored by "Third Way," a group working with Senate Democrats on centrist policy ideas.

The Washington Post's Tom Edsall sums up their "basic thesis" thusly: "the number of solidly conservative Republican voters is substantially larger than the reliably Democratic liberal voter base. To win, the argument goes, Democrats must make much larger inroads among moderates than the GOP."LINK

Per the New York Times' Robin Toner, Galston and Kamarck said the Democratic Party is, in terms of presidential politics, in "better shape than it was in 1989, when they wrote a similar analysis that played a major role in Democratic thinking about the 1992 campaign. The party has solidified its hold on California and much of the Northeast, they said, and President Bill Clinton succeeded in strengthening the party's image on the economy and other issues."

"But, they added, serious problems remain. . ." LINK

In the words of Kamarck, Clinton "solved a set of problems and initiated another set of problems."

Namely, Clinton was not able to improve the party's image on national security and he actually made it worse on religion-based moral values.

Per Toner, "the authors argued that the Democrats 'must avoid getting trapped in the extremes.'"

"For example, they said, 'they could continue to support the core of Roe v. Wade while dropping their intransigence on questions such as parental notification and partial-birth abortion.'"

Galston also suggested that a Democrat who wanted to win in 2008 would propose something that counters the stereotype that Democrats are overly-secular.

2008: Republicans:

Next week, Dr./Sen./Leader Frist is traveling to upstate New York, Ohio, Florida, and Texas for a five-day fundraising, meet and greet, etc tour. We are told he will raise money for candidates, meet with local influential types, as well as do some policy surveying on the Texas border on border security issues.

The Wall Street Journal's wirey John Harwood reports that economic conservatives are pressing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a 2008 Republican hopeful, to rescind technology policy they say would impose costs on small businesses contracting with the state."

2008: Democrats:

Per the AP: former Senator John Edwards, at the Clinton School of Public Service in Arkansas on Thursday, declared that the government has a responsibility -- made glaringly apparent by Hurricane Katrina -- to face poverty's influence head-on. LINK

Harwood's Wall Street Journal Washington Wire also has this: An ally of former Senate Democratic Leader Daschle says "his fund-raising appeal for New York mayoral candidate Ferrer 'can only be explained as part of a broader national electoral strategy.'"

New Hampshire:

The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that a state panel voted to define marriage as a commitment between a man and woman. LINK

The Clintons of Chappaqua:

The Washington Post's Howie Kurtz writes up Louis Freeh's scathing indictment of Bill Clinton and has Clinton spokesman Jay Carson charging that the book written by the former FBI Director is "clearly a total work of fiction by a man who's desperate to clear his name and sell books . . ." LINK

"In an interview with CBS's Mike Wallace to be broadcast Sunday, Freeh says: 'The problem was with Bill Clinton -- the scandals and the rumored scandals, the incubating ones and the dying ones never ended. Whatever moral compass the president was consulting was leading him in the wrong direction. His closets were full of skeletons just waiting to burst out." Freeh cited investigations involving Whitewater, Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones and Gennifer Flowers.'"

Deborah Orin writes in the New York Post that former Freeh accuses ex-boss Clinton of having a faulty "moral compass" in a new book that a Clinton spokesman dismissed as "fiction written by a man who is desperate to sell books." LINK

2005:

"A Debate Without Bloomberg, or Any Fireworks," reads the headline above the New York Times' Pat Healy's story. LINK

"As for the latest terrorist alert, Mr. Ferrer appeared measured as he endorsed the mayor's decision to warn New Yorkers about the possible threat," writes Healy.

The Washington Post ed board criticizes the Washington, DC affiliates of the three networks for not agreeing to air this weekend's Virginia gubernatorial debate live. LINK

National Journal's sagacious Charlie Cook writes that Democrat Tim Kaine "appears to have erased Kilgore's lead, to have plenty of forces working in his favor, and to have the momentum" in Virginia's gubernatorial race.

2006:

Thirty-two Iowa House Democrats are prepared to put the wind in Mike Blouin's sails for the state's gubernatorial race, proclaims the Sioux City Journal's Dan Gearino. LINK

Ian Bishop writes in the New York Post that the campaign committee headed by Charles Schumer paid $3,500 in legal fees for two former staffers being investigated by federal authorities for illegally accessing credit card information about Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. LINK

The Journal news reports that a golfing Rudy Giuliani referred to Jeanine Pirro "as a 'superior candidate' but stopped short of offering an endorsement." LINK

Per the New York Sun: Rochester billionaire businessman Tom Golisano is switching his party registration to Republican in a move to position himself for another gubernatorial run. LINK

The Palm Beach Post reports those Scott Maddox for Governor emails may soon stop hitting your inbox. LINK

Politics:

The Los Angeles Times takes stock of Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's energetic first 100 days. LINK

The Republican National Committee will launch its Hispanic website today: LINK

Former Bay State Governor Paul Cellucci publishes his memoir in which he is critical of former Governor Swift's actions on 9/11, and Cellucci describes his friendly Bush family rapport that got him the job of Ambassador of Canada. LINK