ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 10, 2004—
-- NOTED NOW

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53 days until Election Day20 days until the first proposed presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

At this precise time every four years, the most media-savvy members of the Gang of 500 begin to think about their roles in the premiere post-election forum that revisits the actions and players of the presidential race.

The quadrennial gabfest — hosted by Harvard's Institute of Politics in the winter after each presidential election — features a group of journalists who covered the campaign leading top political players from all camps through a chronological discussion of who-did-what-when-and-why behind the scenes during the course of the nomination and general election periods.

The goal is near-contemporaneous candor, although over the years, some participants have become no more forthcoming than they would be in, say, a "Good Housekeeping" interview.

Still, this cycle there will be a lot to look forward to — Joe Trippi's self-deprecation; Karl Rove's lavish praise of Michael Whouley and Steve Rosenthal; Steve Elmendorf's witty asides; Ben Ginsberg's whispered asides — to Bob Bauer; Kevin Zeese's adorable star-struck look; and Jack Oliver's nonchalance.

But if nothing changes in the race as it now stands — with President Bush winning a decent-sized victory — much of the talk will be about the greater technical proficiency of the Bush-Cheney effort.

In fact, even if Kerry wins, there will be much talk about the discipline, focus, success, and, yes, shamelessness of the BC04RNC team:

Avoiding a nomination challenge; merciless distribution of message of the day; deflection of any serious discussion of the war in Iraq, health care, jobs, or the tax burden; installing a White House press secretary willing to use the podium for political purposes but not respond directly to any hard questions; making the race not about the incumbent's record but the challenger's, all the while claiming to want to focus on "the future"; and the wielding of national security as the ultimate political trump card.

For the Democrats in Cambridge (under a Kerry loss scenario), the talk will be about August, reliving the Dukakis nightmare, and the press' inability to live up to the shared claim about the historic "importance" of the election.

For the journalists there, questions will be raised about the ease with which the establishment media was led around by the nose by the Internet, cable, and paid media that was just above the video-press-release level.

Some preliminary conclusions, sure to be part of the IOP discussion:

1. As long as political reporters — rather than reporters who cover health care, economics, and military affairs — dominate election coverage, there will always be more emphasis on narrative that implicitly celebrates tactical cleverness and bare-knuckles ruthlessness over narrative that celebrates ideas.

2. Serious scrutiny of four-year plans for deficit reduction, Iraq, homeland security, etc., were crowded out by coverage of polls, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bob Shrum.

3. Neither candidate was made to answer detailed questions about his plans (We particularly look forward to reporters who got pre-convention Bush interviews recounting how about a third of their allotted time was taken up by a presidential speech!).

So between now and the end of the weekend — counting down days 53, 52, and 51 until Nov. 2 — watch to see what dominates the airspace and the inkspace and imagine what will be said about it, in the cold of a New England winter.

See our National Guard sections for a taste of what has come before and what is to come now.

Today, President Bush hits the road for his fifth (!) bus tour through Ohio this year (and fourth visit in the last 16 days), traveling through three towns in West Virginia and Ohio that he won by 2,000 votes or fewer in 2000. He begins the day with a 10:45 am ET rally in Huntington, WV then drives to Southwest Ohio for a 1:25 ET "Ask President Bush" event in Portsmouth and a 4:20 pm ET rally in Chillicothe.

Elizabeth Edwards is also in West Virginia today, staying long enough for three events in Princeton, Fairmont, and Charleston.

Senator Kerry, for the second day in a row, will pick up on a Kaiser Foundation study that shows health care costs have risen sharply (but less sharply as in the past, BC04 points out . . .) to deliver the message that President Bush has "left the problem unaddressed."

The campaign promises that the Kerry-Edwards plan will lay out drug benefits, allow re-importation of drugs from Canada, and adjust the things that Medicaid can pay for. Kerry's focus on health care today takes him to a 9:45 am ET town hall in a St. Louis seniors' community center and a 5:30 pm ET rally in Allentown, PA.

Continuing to campaign with his wife, Vice President Cheney will deliver the "America sees two John Kerrys" message again today when he meets with community leaders for coffee in Green Bay at 9:30 am ET and hosts 12:55 pm ET and 5:00 pm ET town halls in Sheboygan Falls, WI and Milwaukee.

And in Washington, after observing a moment of silence in honor of Sept. 11, the Senate will debate but not vote on the Homeland Appropriations bill and its amendments.

This weekend, the candidates and the world observe the three-year anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Tomorrow, President Bush does so by attending a 7:30 am ET service of prayer and remembrance at St. John's Episcopal Church and hosting a moment of silence on the South Lawn of the White House at 8:46 am ET, the exact moment American Airlines Flight 11 hit the North tower of the World Trade Center. He will also do his weekly radio address live on the topic.

Senator Kerry will attend the Massachusetts 9/11 Fund Commemoration at the Opera House in Boston tomorrow at 9:30 am ET. Kerry resumes campaigning in the evening, speaking to the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's 34th annual Legislative Conference at 8:00 pm ET — while his running mate Senator Edwards attends the conference's prayer breakfast tomorrow morning.

On Sunday, both Bush and Kerry are in Washington without public events while Edwards attends Laborfest Detroit 2004 and raises coin in Houston before overnighting in Santa Fe, NM.

President Bush and the National Guard: the politics of the documents:

Whether these documents are valid or not, the debate over them has certainly pushed questions about Bush's National Guard service to the background. (And other things — did the politico-media world really process how the House rebuked the White House on overtime rules yesterday? Or actually read the Kaiser report?)

Just ask any reporter you know who works in politics were they focused on the curlicues of apostrophes yesterday? Or on whether Bush knew that he was (allegedly) being coddled by superiors?

Democrats, who deny up and down that they had anything to do with the documents, tell ABC News that they plan to continue their push to question the president's Guard service, irrespective of the CBS situation.

Top Democrats vow to continue to lead the charge against Bush along these four lines

1. Bush allegedly got special treatment 2. Bush allegedly was suspended for missing his medical exam 3. Bush allegedly didn't fulfill his requirements 4. Bush allegedly didn't release all the documents he said he'd release

But they acknowledge that it might be more difficult to break through the clutter of questions surrounding the documents' authenticity.

In less guarded moments, some Democrats express a sense of utter loss at the seeming turn of events in this story.

ABC News' George Stephanopoulos said on "Good Morning America" that "a lot of Democrats think this might have been a set-up" by Republicans — a sentiment we are likely to hear more of in the days to come.

Meanwhile, Republicans can rightly ask about the confluence of all the DNC, outside group, and media focus on revisiting the Guard story.

And Democrats can rightly say that Fox News Channel seems to like the "forgery" story more than the original CBS version.

And, meanwhile, Bush Republicans manifestly want to stay out of the way of this one and let the media work its magic. The sense one gets is that the White House — having disseminated the documents — feels the prospect of forgeries is too good to be true — or is it?

They will watch their friends at CBS twist in the wind, and keep repeating that the president was honorably discharged and all these attacks (get ready to lump the Kitty Kelley book in there!!!) are political and desperate from the side that is behind in the polls.

IF — IF these end up being forgeries, one of the interesting subplots will be the timing and method by which they were exposed.

We always favor looking at the content and substance over WHO is offering up the information, but in the war that will ensue about WHO gave CBS the potentially phony documents, it is interesting to Note that the right (Drudge, Fox, right-leaning blogs, others) led the way in pointing out the questions we have all been asking — and they were onto the questions, with remarkable detail, relatively soon after the documents were made public.

Here's part of how this story got here . . . from a little Marc Ambinder back-lurking on the blogs . . .

At 8:00 pm ET Wednesday night, CBS News does the story . . .

at 11:50 pm ET (8:59 pm PT), the documents come into question via a poster named Buckhead on the Free Republic Web site: LINK

Buckhead seems well-read on his forensic document examination skills. "Howlin, every single one of these memos to file is in a proportionally spaced font, probably Palatino or Times New Roman. In 1972 people used typewriters for this sort of thing, and typewriters used monospaced fonts. The use of proportionally spaced fonts did not come into common use for office memos until the introduction of laser printers, word processing software, and personal computers. They were not widespread until the mid to late 90's. Before then, you needed typesetting equipment, and that wasn't used for personal memos to file. Even the Wang systems that were dominant in the mid 80's used monospaced fonts. I am saying these documents are forgeries, run through a copier for 15 generations to make them look old."

Well, this is bandied about by dozens of Freepers, as they're called and is picked up at 8:30 am ET and added to by www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/ — this little green football guy is a very popular conservative blogger . . .

It's expanded upon by www.powerlineblog.com/ in the early morning:

and also by www.spacetownusa.com/hmmm

and here, at 10:36 am ET: www.allahpundit.com/.

Around midday, the popular author Roger L. Simon praises the blogosphere for getting this story . . . LINK

Between this time and mid-day, reporters in the MSM — that's the Main Stream Media to these folks (that's us) — are alerted by some sources to the blogosphere's agita . . . others have read the blogs themselves.

At 2:41 pm ET, one blogger even consulted his own forensic expert and told anyone using the blog that, well, they must credit him: indcjournal.com/.

To Drudge, around 3:00 pm ET . . .

and the Weekly Standard . . . around 5:00 pm ET . . .

to Fox after 6:00 pm ET and then the AP and then ABC . . .

John Podhoretz credits the blogosphere, as he should: LINK

In other stories: The Washington Post 's VandeHei and Edsall report on the "multi-front attack on President Bush's National Guard service" by Democrats yesterday. Notably there is only one line about the controversy over the authenticity of the documents unearthed by CBS News, with the paper dealing with that separately in another story Noted below. LINK

The Boston Globe does not get into the debate about the documents, focusing instead on the full-throated DNC push on Bush's service. LINK

A New York Times editorial on the new documents and Bush's Guard service does include a reference to the documents' authenticity being challenged. LINK

The White House lobs claims that the Kerry team is behind attacks on Bush's military service record. The Washington Times ' Bill Sammon reports White House press secretary Scott McClellan describes it as desperate measures for desperate times. "You absolutely are seeing a coordinated attack by John Kerry and his surrogates on the president." LINK

The New York Daily News writes that the revival of debates over Kerry and Bush's military records is turning New York voters off. LINK

Corky Siemaszko of the New York Daily News reports President Bush' former Harvard Business School proof, Yoshi Tsurumi, has come out of the woodwork to say his former student supported the Vietnam War but did not want to fight it. Tsurumi says Bush claimed his father's connections got him into the Texas Air National Guard. "But what really disturbed me is that he said he was for the Vietnam War," said Tsurumi.. "I said, 'George, that's hypocrisy. You won't fight a war that you support but you expect other people to fight it for you.' He just smirked." LINK

Rowan Scarborough of the Washington Times writes "For years, the Democratic attacks have centered on two charges, including one that Mr. Bush failed to meet drilling requirements from mid-1972 to early 1973. A less-persistent accusation was that he used his father's status as a prominent Texas politician to win entry into the Guard after he graduated from Yale and faced the military draft in 1968. That charge has never been proved. And the White House thought it had snuffed out the question on non-drill compliance last winter, when it released records showing he was paid for the drills during the period in question and that he received sufficient points to achieve an honorable discharge in October 1973 as he entered Harvard Business School." LINK

CBS News in Crisis(?):

CBS's "Early Show" did a tell this morning on the document story.

An anchor read: "The authenticity of those documents is now being questions. Family members doubt that Killian would have written an unsigned memo . . . "

And "there are questions about the typography, which some experts say appear to have been done on a computer."

"CBS News says it stands by the story."

And then they quoted from the second CBS statement (not the third) that said that CBS was "convinced" the documents were authentic.

That conviction was dropped from a third CBS statement, which they asked ABC News to use instead of the second.

Compare two sequential statements released by CBS News last night:

New: "As is standard practice at CBS News, the documents in the 60 MINUTES report were thoroughly examined and their authenticity vouched for by independent experts. As importantly, 60 MINUTES also interviewed close associates of Colonel Jerry Killian. They confirm that the documents reflect his opinions and actions at the time."

Old: "As is standard practice at CBS News, each of the documents broadcast on 60 MINUTES was thoroughly investigated by independent experts and we are convinced of their authenticity. In addition to analysis of the documents themselves, CBS verified the authenticity of the documents by talking to individuals who had seen the documents at the time they were written. These individuals were close associates of Colonel Jerry Killian and confirm that the documents reflect his opinions at the time the documents were written."

The Washington Post 's Dobbs and Allen report that "A senior CBS official, who asked not to be named because CBS managers did not want to go beyond their official statement, named one of the network's sources as retired Maj. Gen. Bobby W. Hodges, the immediate superior of the documents' alleged author, Lt. Col. Jerry B. Killian. He said a CBS reporter read the documents to Hodges over the phone and Hodges replied that 'these are the things that Killian had expressed to me at the time.'" LINK

"'These documents represent what Killian not only was putting in memoranda, but was telling other people,' the CBS News official said. 'Journalistically, we've gone several extra miles.'"

"The official said the network regarded Hodges's comments as 'the trump card' on the question of authenticity, as he is a Republican who acknowledged that he did not want to hurt Bush. Hodges, who declined to grant an on-camera interview to CBS, did not respond to messages left on his home answering machine in Texas."

And let us not be the last to point out that if a(nother) major corporation was withholding information related to serious allegations made against the president of the United States, "60 Minutes" would be all over them, demanding to know about their documentation and expert back up.

What's going on in the halls of 57th Street and M Street today? (Note our use of superscript!!!)

We'll know more by 6:30 pm ET we bet.

Journalists play Gil Grissom: the documents:

It's important to point out from the outset that not a single piece of hard evidence has been uncovered that categorically proves these documents were forgeries.

Still, ABC News consulted yesterday with more than a half dozen top forensic document experts, including William Flynn and Peter Tytell, considered two of the best in the world.

Tytell and Flynn agreed on several points, namely that the proportional spaced Times Roman font does not appear to have been the result of available technology in 1972 and 1973. They questioned the superscripts, the spacing between lines (13 points separated each line, which, again, was not a technology that was available in typewriters back then.). Then there's the apostrophe, which is curled to the left in one of the documents — not something typewriters did with their apostrophes.

Richard Polt, a philosophy professor in Ohio and an amateur typewriter enthusiast, said he was 99 percent certain that no typewriter he knew of could have made the typed impressions that cleanly.

And two members of Killian's family (who certainly could have agendas of their own) told ABC News that they had suspicions.

Marjorie Connell, Killian's wife at the time, said she "just can't believe these are his words." Mrs. Connell said her late husband would be "turning over in his grave to know that a document such as this would be used against a fellow guardsman." She used the words "appalling," "sick" and "angry" to describe her feelings about Killian's name was "being battled back and forth on television."

She made it clear that Lt Col Killian was a fan of Bush: "I know for a fact that this young man as a lt was an excellent aviator, an excellent person to be in the guard and was very happy to have him become a member of the 111th."

She also mentioned her late husband was no typist. "He would not have typed because he did not type." When Killian did take notes his wife said he usually wrote on whatever scrap of paper was handy but "he was a person who did not take copious notes he carried everything in his mind." For more, see: LINK

Deb Orin and Ian Bishop of the New York Post key off of the radio interview with Mrs. Connell and a document expert to point to potential forgery. LINK

The New York Daily News reports forensic scientist Sandra Ramsey Lines says the superscript in the Lt. Col. Jerry Killian's notes are evidence of forgery. LINK

CBS News sent reporters a previously validated document last night that does appear to contain a superscripted "th," which confounds some experts we spoke with, including Katherine Koppenhaver, who said she is 75 percent certain even still that the new documents are forgeries.

The New York Times ' Seeyle and Rutenberg were careful to ask the political affiliation of their experts, which we think is a good idea. LINK

"Philip Bouffard, a forensic document specialist from Ohio who created a commonly used database of at least 3,000 old type fonts, said he had suspicions as well. 'I found nothing like this in any of my typewriter specimens,' said Dr. Bouffard, a Democrat. He also said the fonts were "certainly consistent with what I see in Times Roman," the commonly used Microsoft Word font. However, Dr. Bouffard said, a colleague had called his attention to similarities between the font in the memos and that of the IBM Selectric Composer of the early 1970's. But he said it would be unusual for Mr. Bush's commanding officer to have had the IBM machine because of its large size."

The Los Angeles Times talked to Killian's daughter: "Nancy Killian Rodriguez said only that her father, who died in 1984, had 'admired George Bush and was proud of the fact that he pinned his [flying] wings on him.'" LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

The Boston Globe 's Kranish brings the National Guard story back to Kerry: "With the revival of questions about whether President Bush fulfilled his National Guard duty, some of Kerry's critics have begun to focus on what Kerry did in the Naval Reserve, asking why he hasn't released records of his reserve service." LINK

Pat Healy and Rick Klein of the Boston Globe join forces for a good long look at what's happening on the campaign trail. Rallies, swirling controversies that neither candidate addresses, attacks, attacks, attacks, polls, and Vietnam. LINK

Domestic policy returned to the top of the political debate yesterday, reports Dana Milbank and Paul Farhi of the Washington Post , Noting Kerry charged that "Bush has not addressed 'runaway' health care costs" and that the incumbent accused Kerry of "having a 'hidden' tax increase waiting for Americans." LINK

From the trail on Thursday, the Chicago Tribune's Mark Silva and Jill Zuckman write that both President Bush and Senator Kerry tried to campaign while avoiding the 800-pound gorilla of their Vietnam service. LINK

USA Today 's Judy Keen has the latest McClellan-Lockhart back-and-forth and breaks down the competition of "you're a flip-flopper" versus "you're a liar." LINK

The Las Vegas Review-Journal's Erin Neff reports on President Bush's late-night Thursday reply that he will address the National Guard convention in Las Vegas and previews both Bush and Kerry's visit there next week. LINK

The New York Post 's Deb Orin writes of the president's good poll position (even in New Jersey) and then gets this lovely blind quote that will make Joe Lockhart oh so happy about his new job. LINK

"Shell-shocked Democrats said Kerry must turn things around in a week or two to keep hope alive and one said Kerry strategists 'are trying every possible message against Bush in focus groups but nothing is sticking.'"

After calling some recent rhetoric by Vice President Cheney "sleazy and despicable," Al Gore continued to denigrate the tactics of the Bush-Cheney campaign. The Pittsburgh Post Gazette has the details from the former Vice President's visit with steelworkers. LINK

"'They're not even trying to convince you to vote for George Bush. Their only hope is to try and make you too afraid to vote for [Democratic candidate] John Kerry. It's the lowest sort of politics imaginable,' Gore said."

Al Hunt's latest campaign journal: LINK

"The organizers of this year's Republican National Convention engaged in some very shrewd rewriting of history," writes the Washington Post 's E.J. Dionne. It behooves voters, he argues, to pay attention to the record rather than the show. LINK

The Washington Post 's Charles Krauthammer explains his take on the lack of a bump for Kerry out of his convention compared to the one Bush received: "The Republicans had something to say. The Democrats did not. Something always beats nothing." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

President Bush travels to West Virginia and Ohio today for rallies and an "Ask the president" event that the campaign says will highlight tax relief and small businesses.

Reports the Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes: "As of Aug. 1, five local companies with longstanding ties to President Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, had received 16% of the money spent by the president's re-election campaign — a tidy $33 million. Mr. Rove no longer has any financial relationship with the closely held firms, which specialize in direct mailings. There is no whiff, either, of illegality around the contracts, all of which are mentioned in public documents. But the awarding of so much money to a handful of well-connected insiders shows how political business is conducted — and how high the stakes of such business are — in this era of explosive campaign spending."

Reports John Harwood in Washington Wire: " After above-average economic performance earlier gave Bush the upper hand for Florida's 27 electoral votes, the aftermath of hurricanes Charley and Frances now interferes with Kerry's ability to break through. It 'freezes the electorate,' says a Bush adviser While the president joins brother Gov. Jeb Bush in passing out water and ice, "Kerry couldn't get arrested in Florida" now, laments a Democratic lawmaker. But one Republican strategist says the White House should "be worrying" about whether $2 billion in aid already approved will appear inadequate by October."

And THIS is why Karl Rove loves the power of incumbency: "With Ohio's 20 electoral votes up for grabs, Bush administration Homeland Security official Suzanne Mencer travels to Marysville to deliver a $675,000 grant for a new firetruck. The town is part of Bush's Buckeye base; in 2000, its home, Union County, backed the Republican nominee by 2 to 1 over Gore."

Elisabeth Bumiller on Bush's ribbing Kerry on taxes. LINK

BC04 questions Carville and Begala on Crossfire. LINK

Paul Krugman knocks the Bush Administration's honesty — or lack thereof, in his opinion. LINK

Wonderful New York Times correction: "An article yesterday about efforts by the Bush campaign to counter negative accounts in a book by Kitty Kelley referred incompletely to the media outlets to which the Republican Party sent an e-mail message questioning aspects of her previous biographies. The message was sent to radio shows, not just to conservative ones." LINK

Per the Wall Street Journal : "A Republican attack on author Kitty Kelley's forthcoming biography, 'The Family: The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty,' is helping to build advance demand for the title scheduled to hit bookstores Tuesday. At a time when political books are leading the ranks of nonfiction bestsellers, 'The Family' is expected to be one of the biggest titles in the critical fall season. Bookseller Borders Group Inc. yesterday ordered more copies of 'The Family' based on the media attention the book is receiving. 'We expected it to be a big seller, but now we want more,' said Mike Spinozzi, Borders chief marketing officer."

In the Dallas Morning News, Colleen McCain Nelson looks at whether President Bush can be considered (gasp!) a flip-flopper too, Noting that he "has not always been a model of consistency."LINK

Dana Milbank of the Washington Post takes a look at the stringent security measures the Bush campaign has taken at their events, including the action of Secret Service members on Thursday when "seven AIDS activists who heckled President Bush during a campaign appearance were shoved and pulled from the room — some by their hair, one by her bra straps — and then arrested for disorderly conduct and detained for an hour." LINK

The debate about debates:

Jim Rutenberg profiles the debate-the-debate teams of both campaigns, noting that "[t]hough Mr. Bush's aides say they have ruled nothing out, the team does not seem as if it is preparing to do anything so radical as it did in 2000, when it announced that it would forgo two of the three commission debates in favor of debates on Larry King Live on CNN and Meet the Press on NBC. Mr. Bush relented after coming under withering criticism. (The NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw has put out word that he is interested in moderating a non-Commission debate this year, but NBC News officials say he will not formally propose one until both campaigns work out the details of the commission debates.)" LINK

"Democrats say they do expect the debate negotiators — primarily Mr. Jordan and Mr. Baker — to go to the mat on some issues. Mr. Kerry's campaign aides say they are girding for Mr. Bush's team to try to shorten the proposed debates to 60 minutes from 90 minutes and perhaps to bypass the town-hall-style debate, at which the candidates are to field questions from undecided voters from the St. Louis area picked by the Gallup polling organization."

Matt Stearns of the Kansas City Star reports Steve Givens, chairman of Washington University's debate steering committee, says as far as he knows the St. Louis Missouri town hall-style debate is still on — and that the university is making preparations. "All these negotiations, to a certain extent, are to be expected," Givens said. "At this point, we're just looking to Oct. 8. There's a lot of work." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: health care:

Senator Kerry returned to Iowa today for a town hall meeting on health care and the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign showed that while it is focused on the war on terror and the economy, it is not willing to concede any ground to the Kerry/Edwards ticket on domestic issues, reports ABC News' Karen Travers.

The BC04 campaign released a new ad, "Medicare Hypocrisy," which the campaign says "highlights John Kerry's record of voting for higher Medicare premiums and missing a vote to give seniors prescription drug coverage."

Script: President Bush: I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message. VO: John Kerry … Attacking the president on Medicare. But it was Senator Kerry who voted five times to raise Medicare premiums. Kerry voted to require premium increases … calling passage of the bill "a day of vindication." The same John Kerry who was absent for 36 of 38 Medicare votes last year … even one giving seniors prescription drug coverage. John Kerry . . . he actually voted for higher Medicare premiums … before he came out against them.

The new ad will work into the current BC04 ad rotation in the next few days. This marks the first truly defensive ad from the campaign, responding to an issue that Senator Kerry is trying to gain the upper hand on, throwing back at Senator Kerry his record and using a variation of that line that keeps dogging him

In the past, negative ads on Senator Kerry have focused on his record and his statements on the campaign trail to show the contrast between the two sides. Other ads that have taken a similar tactic to the health care ad are "Wacky," which pushed back on Senator Kerry's record on gasoline taxes after he made rising gas prices an issue on the campaign trail, and "Patriot Act," as Kerry emphasized that on the trail.

BC04 officials will always say that the two main issues in this campaign are national security/war on terror and the economy.

Senior BC04 officials have said this week that they are not willing to play defense to Senator Kerry on any issues, including health care. They will concede, however that this issue could present problems for the campaign if Senator Kerry is able to craft a coherent, consistent message that gains traction with voters.

The campaign also put out several pieces of paper backing the president's position on health care and Medicare and discrediting Senator Kerry's statements, record, and positions on the same issues.

Their basic argument:

"President Bush has a comprehensive health care agenda that will help us adapt to changes in the economy. He is making health care more portable between jobs, putting the consumer in charge and addressing the root causes of health care costs. John Kerry's record is one of ignoring root causes of health care costs. His plan will just shift costs over to the taxpayers and will require tax hikes to fund it."

Spokesman Steve Schmidt casts his statement today in terms of Kerry's opposition to several pieces of legislation that the BC04 campaign included in the new ad. Schmidt calls Kerry's plan "government-run health care" that would "shift costs to taxpayers while empowering Washington bureaucrats.

ABC News Vote 2004: Vice President Cheney on the trail:

Vice President Cheney brought back an old line yesterday at a town meeting in Cincinnati, saying that Saddam Hussein had "provided safe harbor and sanctuary to terrorists for years … and had provided safe harbor and sanctuary as well for Al Qaeda."LINK

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Greg Korte interviewed Vice President Cheney on Thursday and Cheney told him he wanted to "'clean up'" his remarks from Tuesday and said, "'I did not say if Kerry is elected, we will be hit by a terrorist attack.'" LINK

Vice President Cheney Noted yesterday that the big bucks people make on eBay are not included in unemployment figures. "That's a source that didn't even exist 10 years ago: 400,000 people make some money trading on eBay." LINK

Senator Edwards was quick with the response to that comment: "Bush and Cheney are so out of touch with what's going on with the economy. Cheney said today that the reason economic reports are low is because they don't count all the money folks are making selling things on E-Bay. I'm telling you, if we only included bake sales and how much money kids make at lemonade stands, this economy would really be cooking."

Cheney embarks on a bus tour through Wisconsin today, with stops in Green Bay, Sheboygen and Milwaukee. At a Victory 2004 fundraiser last night in Green Bay, the Vice President couldn't resist a dig at Senator Kerry on football, to the delight of the Republican crowd, Travers Notes.

"I thought after John Kerry's trek here, I wanted to see Lambert Field all to myself," Cheney said as the crowd laughed. "I noticed he offended a lot of Cheeseheads. That can happen to anybody . . . I've been confused myself . . . but then the next you know he'll be convinced Vince Lombardi is a foreign leader who supports his candidacy."

ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:

To the delight of Democrats no doubt, the headline above Michael Finnegan's Los Angeles Times story reads: "Kerry Gets Tougher on Bush" LINK

"Kerry's language was part of a retooled and more aggressive campaign message he had adopted since a cadre of new aides joined his staff in an effort to help reverse his slide in the polls."

USA Today 's Jill Lawrence sees Kerry walking out of the bullpen and has pitching coach Rahm Emanuel saying he "feels better" about Kerry's arm now. LINK

John Harwood reports in the Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire: "Democrats say one benefit of shake-up reports is convincing nervous donors that the campaign is responding to recent slippage. Strategists hit Bush's privileged background in 'Operation Fortunate Son.' In his autobiography, Colin Powell blasted the "anti-democratic disgrace" in which 'sons of the powerful' got National Guard slots instead of active duty."

"A CBS poll shows Bush got a four-percentage-point convention 'bounce' to 49%; Kerry aides, criticized for their convention, note that the Washington Post -ABC poll measured the same boost for the Democrat last month. Both sides say Bush leads now by around five percentage points."

"Still unsettled: How Kerry might explain to voters why Bush makes 'wrong choices.'" Interesting Wall Street Journal editorial on Kerry's Iraq position[ing]: "John Kerry could well be our next President, which is why we keep looking for signs that he'd be a good one, especially on national defense. Even a hint of Harry Truman would make us sleep better. But the more he talks about Iraq, the more the Senator seems bent on proving that his critics are right: He really is in a Presidential debate with himself."

"The great lost Democratic opportunity here is that Mr. Bush's Iraq policy is open to criticism: his under-estimation of the Post war insurgency, preventing the Army and Marines from dealing decisive blows to Moqtada al-Sadr in Najaf and the Baathists in Fallujah, failing to train enough Iraqi allies quickly enough, and prolonging the U.S. occupation. But all of these criticisms come from the prowar right, for not fighting in Iraq with the force and tenacity to win."

The Washington Post 's Mark Leibovich takes a look, complete with a clear-eyed look at Camp Kerry via the life and times of Bob Shrum, who at 0-7 in presidential election is "well acquainted with the concession speech." LINK

"Brash, vehement and often brilliant, Shrum, 61, has been an institution in Democratic politics for more than three decades. He has evolved from a one-dimensional speechwriter to a full-service adviser to all manner of Democratic hyper-strivers. He keeps a hand in nearly every facet of a candidate's marketing — making ads, writing speeches, crafting the message, preparing them for debates. He was a constant in Gore's orbit in 2000 and is ubiquitous in Kerry's now."

"Presidential candidates keep clinging to Shrum in the same way that Sox fans (like Kerry) cling to the faith that this year, surely, things will be different."

The Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman laments the lack of access that the traveling press has had to Senator Kerry in the last month. LINK

The politics of health care:

The Kaiser Family Foundation report on skyrocketing health care costs makes it quite easy to understand why Americans say this is one of the most important issues for them this presidential election year. LINK

"The rise in costs is being driven largely by bigger insurance claims that stem from higher prices for hospital services and prescription drugs, as well as growing demand for healthcare as the population ages, Kaiser found. Employers and others also have blamed profiteering by big insurers and hospital chains," reports the Los Angeles Times.

ABC News Vote 2004: Polls, polls, polls:

We begin with the one nearest and dearest to our hearts. The latest ABC News- Washington Post poll — a true-blue post-convention survey — shows President Bush with the advantage going into the last two months of the campaign, with President Bush claiming 52 percent support among likely voters to Senator Kerry's 43 percent and Ralph Nader's 2 percent. ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer Notes that it's the first lead for President Bush beyond the margin of sampling error in any ABC-Post poll since Kerry won his party's nomination in March. Among registered voters, the numbers were 50 percent for Bush, 44 percent for Kerry, 2 percent for Nader. LINK

But no one in the BC04 camp should bust out the cake and ice cream yet, Langer Notes. "This poll follows Bush's convention, a week in which he held center stage in public attention, and his convention 'bounce,' an insignificant +5 points among registered voters, is an anemic one, on par with Kerry's +8 and below the average, +14, in polls since 1968. One difference is that Kerry left his convention in a dead heat among likely voters, while Bush leaves his with a lead."

However, Kerry's got some work to do to convince voters that he has a clear stand on issues and a clear plan for national security. "Registered voters by a 27-point margin now say Bush has taken a clearer stand than Kerry on the issues, by 27 points call Bush the stronger leader and by 19 points say he would make the country safer. He has a 22-point advantage in trust to handle terrorism, a 16-point lead on Iraq and perhaps a slight edge even on the lukewarm economy."

"These and other ratings have either reversed or eroded Kerry's position. After the Democratic convention Kerry had a six-point lead as more honest; now it's Bush +13. Kerry had a 13-point lead on a "vision for the future"; now it's Bush +9. Kerry had a 14-point lead on understanding people's problems; now they're essentially even (Bush +1)."

Washington Post Polling Director Rich Morin teams up with Dan Balz for their analysis: "President Bush emerged from his New York convention with a solid lead over Democratic challenger John F. Kerry, strengthening his position on virtually every important issue in the campaign and opening up a clear advantage on many of the personal characteristics that influence voters" reports LINK

There's also a new Pew Survey of Religion and Politics, conducted in the spring and showing that evangelical Christians lean Republican 56 percent to 27 percent — more heavily than in the past. There's a narrow margin of Catholic Democrats — 44 percent to 41 percent, and Democrats are inching upwards in terms of their numbers among mainstream/moderate Protestants. The poll also shows that abortion rights advocates outnumber abortion rights opponents among religious groups, 52 percent to 48 percent, but overall, opponents of abortion rights have gained support since 1992. More results, including on stem cells and same-sex marriage, are available at pewforum.org/

Adam Nagourney wraps the latest polls and puts the race in nice perspective in the New York Times . LINK

The politics of 9/11 and terror:

The Boston Globe marks tomorrow's 9/11 anniversary by talking to victim's loved ones, Noting the higher security presence in New York, and how folks have tried to return to normal. LINK

"Osama bin Laden's top deputy appeared in a new videotape broadcast on an Arab television network on Thursday, taunting the United States for becoming mired in what he called unsuccessful campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan while vowing that Al Qaeda would attack the United States again," the New York Times ' James Risen reports. "In the tape, excerpts of which were shown on Al Jazeera," Ayman al-Zawahri "said Al Qaeda was already planning for more suicide strikes." LINK

"As the death toll in Thursday's bombing . . . climbed to nine, police intensified their hunt for the man they believe is the master bomb builder behind the attack: a Malaysian mathematician named Azahari bin Husin," the Los Angeles Times' Sari Sudarsono and Richard C. Paddock report. "Police said the car bomb, which injured more than 170 people, was the work of the Jemaah Islamiah terrorist network and its explosives expert, Azahari, who allegedly made bombs used in the group's earlier attacks in Bali and Jakarta." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: ad traffic summary, Sept. 6-10:

AD TRAFFIC HIGHLIGHTS

· The Bush campaign flops down an ad flipping out about Kerry's record on Medicare.· The Kerry campaign puts down some ads putting down the president where he campaigns.· The NRA shoots out an ad critical of Kerry's record on guns.· Swift Boat Veterans for Truth returns to some markets with a previously aired anti-Kerry ad and Texans for Truth retorts with a new anti-Bush ad.

CURRENTLY ON THE AIR · 4 BC04 ads: 3 touting the president's agenda and 1 knocking Kerry· 1 KE04 ad saying Bush has made wrong choices and several others placed in markets for limited runs while the president campaigns there· 2 DNC ads on health care and jobs· 0 RNC ads· 0 Media Fund ads· 1 MoveOn.org ad that is part of their "10 Weeks" campaign· 1 NRA ad against Kerry· 2 ads warring over the "truth": 1 by SBVfT and 1 by TfT

The politics of national security:

"Army jailers in Iraq, acting at the Central Intelligence Agency's request, kept dozens of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison and other detention facilities off official rosters to hide them from Red Cross inspectors, two senior Army generals said Thursday. The total is far more than had been previously reported," the New York Times ' Jehl and Schmitt report. LINK

"The ranking Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee has charged that senior Bush administration officials have disclosed classified information to a prominent journalist "for partisan purposes," sending a message to government officials that leaks "receive blessings from the very top," the New York Times ' Risen reports. LINK

"In two stinging letters to the Central Intelligence Agency, Senator John D. Rockefeller IV, the West Virginia Democrat who is vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, complained that administration officials had provided a 'torrent' of classified information to the journalist, Bob Woodward of The Washington Post , for his 2002 book 'Bush at War.'"

Have we ever mentioned that Walter Shapiro is really smart? LINK

The Washington Post 's David Ignatius isn't necessarily buying the BC04 argument that President Bush has made the U.S. a safer place. LINK

"Would Kerry conduct the battle against terrorism any better than Bush? It's impossible to know, given the vague generalities the Democrat has offered so far. But by framing his campaign around anti-terrorism, Bush has opened himself to the basic question: Just how successful have his administration's policies been? If the Democrats can mount a serious critique, and offer a clear anti-terrorism policy of their own, they could transform Bush's strongest issue into his Achilles' heel."

Check out Elizabeth Drew's review of the 9/11 Commission Report in the Sept. 23 edition of the New York Book Review. She explains how "in several ways" the 9/11 Commission is "strikingly different from any of its predecessors" with a "specific and vigilant constituency." Noting the Commission's fighting to finish it's job in the face of challenges and considerable pressure, Drew tells the story of how the report prevailed and painted a "devastating picture of the chaos within the Bush administration on the morning of the attacks." However, "The most important strategic decision the commission made was to avoid offering an explicit opinion on whether the September 11 attacks could have been prevented."

Bottom line: If you haven't had the time or patience to read the report for yourself, the legendary Elizabeth Drew offers a detailed analysis of what it says and what it means.

Page two of today's Note: LINK

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):

—8:30 am: Elizabeth Edwards visits the public library, Princeton, WV —8:55 am: President Bush departs the White House —9:30 am: The Senate convenes and observes a moment of silence in remembrance of the events of September 11, 2001 —9:30 am: Vice President Cheney and Mrs. Cheney have coffee with community members at the Golden Basket Restaurant, Green Bay, WI—10:00 am: The Democratic Policy Committee meets at the Capitol, Washington, DC—10:45 am: President Bush speaks at Huntington, WV —10:45 am: Sen. John Kerry holds a town hall meeting, St. Louis, MO —10:45 am: DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe holds a press conference at DNC headquarters, Washington, DC—11:00 am: Secretary of State Colin Powell receives a courtesy call from the commander-in-chief of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, Washington, DC—11:30 am: First Lady Laura Bush speaks at a "W. Stands for Women" Rally at the Franco American Heritage Center, Lewiston, ME—11:30 am: Vanessa Kerry participates in roundtable discussion with people living with HIV/AIDS, Atlanta, GA —12:30 pm: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld speaks to the National Press Club to discuss "Three Years Later: A Progress Report on the Global War onTerror," Washington, DC —12:45 pm: Vanessa Kerry gives the keynote address at the "Staying Alive Conference," Atlanta, GA —12:45 pm: Elizabeth Edwards hosts a discussion on jobs at the volunteer fire house, Fairmont, WV —12:55 pm: Vice President Cheney and Mrs. Cheney participate in a town hall meeting at Johnsonville Sausage, Sheboygan Falls, WI—1:30 pm: President Bush participates in an "Ask President Bush" event, Portsmouth, OH —2:00 pm: First Lady Laura Bush speaks at an RNC fundraiser at the Southern New Hampshire University, Manchester, NH —2:00 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell delivers the 2004 Herbert Quandt Lecture at Georgetown University, Washington, DC—4:25 pm: President Bush speaks at a campaign rally, Chillicothe, OH —4:30 pm: Elizabeth Edwards hosts a town hall meeting at the Civic Center, Charleston, WV —5:00 pm: Vice President Cheney and Mrs. Cheney participate in a town hall meeting at the Midwest Airlines Center, Milwaukee, WI—5:30 pm: Sen. Kerry speaks at a rally, Allentown, PA —7:30 pm: President Bush returns to the White House