ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 9, 2004—
-- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
Morning Show Wrap
Evening Newscasts Wrap
54 days until Election Day21 days until the first proposed presidential debate
NEWS SUMMARY
Be aware — tonight, the first true post-convention, non-holiday-tainted, gold-plated national poll hits the street (courtesy of ABC News and the Washington Post ).
In the meantime, amidst the outbreak of high-intensity campaign hysteria of lawyers, guns, money, Vietnam, political threats about terror threats, and debates-about-debates, any pretext that this campaign would be about issues instead of caricatures is dead and buried.
Thus, George Bush as brought to you by the Democrats and the GOP version of John Kerry :
BUSH TIMELINE
Born (with a silver spoon in his mouth) to patrician New England family in New Haven on July 6, 1946.
Prep school cheerleader.
Young and irresponsible — and vaguely so.
"I was not prepared to shoot my eardrum out with a shotgun in order to get a deferment. Nor was I willing to go to Canada. So I chose to better myself by learning how to fly airplanes."
AWOL, physical-dodging, hard-partying bogus flyboy.
Failed businessman with continuing young and irresponsible behavior (a/ka: the Kitty Kelley years).
Powerless, faux-bipartisan governor of Texas.
Over-promising, vague, McCain-savaging presidential candidate.
Supreme-Court-manipulating, illegitimate president-elect.
Right-wing, war-mongering, environment-destroying, special-interest-controlled, daddy-revenge-seeking, stem-cell-research-crushing, vacation-taking, tax-cutting, neo-con puppet POTUS.
KERRY TIMELINE
Privileged, French boy with ambiguous cultural heritage.
Preternaturally ambitious prepster.
Medal-seeking, exploit-filming, fabricating, wimpy-yet-overly-aggressive Swift Boat exploiter.
Medal-throwing, Fonda-consorting, Genghis-Khan-citing anti-war radical.
Money-marrying, rich-man's-sports-loving pretty boy.
District-shopping, Dukakis-hugging, hyper-ambitious pol.
Uber-liberal, do-nothing, anti-military, tax-raising senator.
Howard-Dean-aping, flip-flopping, Iraq-war-bobbing, Gore-like presidential candidate.
Today, President Bush travels to Pennsylvania where he will make two campaign stops. First at 12:35 pm ET the president will makes remarks in Colmar, followed by a second speaking engagement in Johnstown at 5:00 pm ET.
After one day off the trail, Vice President Dick Cheney returns to the stump in Cincinnati, OH where he will attend a town hall meeting at 2:00 pm ET. The Vice President then travels to Green Bay, WI, to attend a 6:30 pm ET fundraiser for the 2004 Joint State Victory Committee.
At 10:00 am ET Senator John Kerry holds his first event of the day, a roundtable discussion, in Des Moines, IA, followed by a 10:35 am ET town hall meeting. Kerry then flies south to New Orleans where he will address the 124th Annual Session of the National Baptist Convention at 5:00 pm ET.
Kerry's running mate, Senator John Edwards is in Nashua, NH this morning for a 11:15 am ET town hall meeting at Daniel Webster College. He then travels to Washington, DC for two receptions for the KE'04 Victory Fund at 7:00 pm ET and 7:45 pm ET, respectively.
First Lady Laura Bush and Jenna and Barbara are reaching out to voters at separate scheduled campaign events.
Over on Capitol Hill, James Schlesinger, chairman of the Independent Panel to Review Department of Defense Detention Operations, testifies before the House Armed Services Committee and Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:00 am ET and 2:30 pm ET to discuss his panel's findings most notably about prison abuse in Iraq.
Secretary of State Colin Powel also makes a visit to the hill and speaks to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about the "current situation in Sudan and the prospects for peace" at 9:30 am ET.
You may have missed this, but the Kerry campaign announced that the candidate would speak at the National Guard Association of the United States convention in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sept. 16. And a source familiar with the convention tells ABC News that preparations are underway for President Bush to address the group before Kerry — possibly on Sept. 15. Could be a good venue for both men to discuss . . .
President Bush and the National Guard:
Politically, the White House bets that all this already is baked into the minds of voters, who will tolerate additional evidence and additional revelations without fundamentally changing their view of Mr. Bush.
Look for Kerry-Edwards to still hold their personal fire on this one, but plenty of congressional and state surrogates will be out in force, fanning flames.
Regarding the specific new documents that plopped into Dan Rather's hands, it's dead-men-tell-no-tales. The White House has not disputed their authenticity, hoping their "trash at the end of the campaign" line tracks with what voters expect. (Hey, it worked for Bill Clinton in '92 . . .)
Democrats clearly hope these questions have a substantive effect on their judgment of a commander in chief today. They also hope that talking about events 30 years ago doesn't boomerang and marinate them in their own negative broth.
It would be nice, a Kerry campaign aide told us yesterday, "to turn the campaign to questions about the incumbent's credibility, not ours."
At their core, the questions boil down to these:
Did Mr. Bush receive preferential treatment to get in to the Guard? Did he receive preferential treatment once he was there? Did he know he was receiving preferential treatment? Did he seek it? How much latitude were commanders given to allow certain soldiers to juggle the requirements of the guard to fit their life's present circumstances?
More specifically:
Did Lt. Col. Killian really backdate a report at the request or behest of superior officers? Was this not illegal? Did Bush himself talk "to someone upstairs" to grease his own path? Did Bush really ask to get out of the National Guard drill? Does he remember doing that today? Were such requests made regularly by members of the Guard?
Did General Walter Staudt, Bush's political patron in the Guard, decide on his own to persuade his commanders to be favorably disposed toward Bush? Or was he pressured by outside forces? Why was a flight review board not appointed in August of 1972 pursuant to Killian's orders? How, if Killian said that Bush lost his flight status because of performance, can one account for the glowing performance reviews Bush got that same month?
Why did Mr. Bush not attend his physical as ordered in May of 1972? Was it because he didn't have to as he already knew he wouldn't fly, or perhaps that he did attend — and something came up? Did he ever get a physical in Alabama? Houston? Why has the White House changed its spin on this?
Was Bush a good pilot? A bad pilot? (Or, as the White House asserts, a pilot who crossed the thresholds he needed to cross?)
With all these problems, why was Bush's transfer request to the 187th TAC Recon group approved in September of 1972? Was it the result of his conversations with Killian? Because of Staudt's influence? Or simply par the course for back then?
What other documents will come to light? (The Air Force acknowledges that the state of record-keeping back then ensures that new ones will be found on a regular basis in different boxes in different warehouses.)
Democrats need to be prepared to answer questions about this fact: Sure, the above may be true, but the military, which gets to decide these things, honorably discharged Mr. Bush. And that is of course the first line of defense (and often the last) of Bush defenders.
Bush's National Guard records played big on all the morning shows. Nothing new was reported, though we did enjoy the spirited exchange between titans James Carville and Tucker Eskew.
ABC's Terry Moran's wrap of Bush's military Guard records was the first stand alone package in GMA. Moran included sound from White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett claiming Ben Barnes was acting "on behalf of John Kerry" and reported in his live close that Lt. Col. Jerry Killian wrote in one memo that "I'll back-date, but won't rate," a statement that "raises the possibility that Bush's military records were falsified."
CBS' Bill Plante's wrap led the "Early Show." Plante reported that the White House says Bush did not have to take the annual physical exam he never showed up for because the Alabama National Guard did not have the kind of airplane Bush was flying. Plante also reported that the White House says they are trying to get all of his records released.
NBC's Carl Quintinilla wrapped both Kerry's and Bush's Wednesdays within the "Today" newsblock, focusing on Kerry first then reporting nothing new on Bush's Guard records. Quintinilla was the only one to include the new "Texans for Truth" ad featuring former Alabama Air National Guard Lieutenant Bob Mintz claiming he didn't remember Bush being there.
The New York Times and the Washington Post and the Chicago Tribune and USA Today wrap the days' developments. LINK,LINK,LINK, and LINK
The Boston Globe 's Robinson and Latour ran the "60 Minutes" documents by military officers who said it "contain[ed] evidence that political influence may have come into play as he sidestepped his training requirements in his final two years of service, from May 1972 until May 1974." LINK
"Bush's service has been in dispute for years because of a six-month gap in 1972 that has not been fully explained by military records. Repeated news reports and document releases by the White House and Pentagon have not settled the question," writes James Rainey of the Los Angeles Times. LINK
Rainey's last graph calls the Globe's Wednesday "scoop" into question:
"Two retired officers interviewed by The Times on Wednesday and familiar with National Guard procedures differed as to whether Bush was still obligated, at that point, to check in with a unit in the Boston area."
The Washington Times looks at the Democrats' strategy. LINK
Rush Limbaugh calls it all a cheap media ploy. LINK
DeFrank, Meek, and Siemaszko of the New York Daily News report the Bush campaign was "rocked yesterday by allegations that the "Top Gun President was a substandard pilot who disobeyed a direct order while serving in the Texas Air National Guard." LINK
Thomas DeFrank's analysis in the New York Daily News tries to get above it all in what he calls the increasingly "slimy, petty sideshow" that comes with looking into military records and which consequently does little for either side. Truce? LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Vice President Cheney on national security:
Day Two of Vice President Cheney's "we'll get hit again" remarks in Des Moines and the issue is how the campaign and Administration are standing firm and caveating his comments at the same time.
As New York Times poet/historian Adam Nagourney so eloquently puts it today: "If Mr. Cheney's aides were walking back his remark in the hours after he made it, they were only walking so far."
Both Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards spoke out on this issue yesterday with Kerry saying that the president and Vice President "say anything and do anything in order to get elected" and that making the war on terror political is "outrageous and shameful." Following up on his initial response on Tuesday, Edwards said yesterday President Bush should "renounce this statement."
Nagourney looks at whether or not Cheney crossed the line with his comments and concludes that "it seems safe to say that even if Mr. Cheney did not mean to say it the way he did, this was precisely the message he intended to convey." LINK
That message was also the "not-so-subliminal message" of the Republican convention — "As they did in New York, when they staged a convention that featured the symbols and sadness of the terrorist attacks there, the Republicans seem to be walking a tricky line in this campaign, which the White House has always wanted fought on the issue of terrorism."
Nagourney writes that Cheney's remarks "were among the more dire offered in a presidential campaign since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson broadcast a television advertisement, with a mushroom cloud, warning that the election of Barry Goldwater would lead to nuclear war."
Spencer Hsu and Dana Milbank follow up on this story and Cheney's role in communications. LINK
The duo Note that "The comments underscore a pattern in which the vice president has acted as the leading edge of the Bush-Cheney communications machine on controversial security issues such as the Iraq war, the hunt for weapons of mass destruction and the fight against al Qaeda, issues in which Cheney has often gone further in making the administration's case than the president."
Hsu and Milbank were really paying attention, Noticing that the transcript of the Cheney event was updated yesterday in a way that "linked his blunter statement to his standard stump language."
Democrats continue to denounce Cheney's statement earlier this week as part of a "fear strategy," reports Martin Kasindorf of the USA Today . LINK
Kasindorf also brings in the "Daisy" ad of 1964 when he Notes that "political analysts said Cheney went over the top in election-year rhetoric but was on established historical ground in doing so."
The Cheney and campaign communications team will love this sentence in the Los Angeles Times:
"We rise, unaccustomed, in defense of Vice President Dick Cheney."LINK
The editorial board sums it up: "But the issue boils down to one question: Which candidate would do the best job, as president, of making sure that we don't "get hit again." That is what people really care about."
However, New York Times editorial board calls Vice President Cheney's comments Tuesday "disgraceful." LINK
The Times Notes that there is a danger no matter who wins on Nov. 2 but does get in this dig at the Bush Administration: "The danger might be a bit less if the current administration had chosen to spend less on tax cuts for the wealthy and more on protecting our ports, securing nuclear materials in Russia and establishing an enforceable immigration policy that would keep better track of people who enter the country from abroad."
The headline on a weird little brief in The New York Times : "Edwards Demands Action on Remark." LINK
In 1992, the senior Mr. Bush wooed the voters with 'Message: I care.' So this week, Mr. Cheney wooed the voters with, Message: You die," writes Maureen Dowd. LINK
The Washington Post 's Richard Cohen compares Vice President Cheney's remarks to the Red scare tactics of Senator Joe McCarthy. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry's Iraq message:
Jacob Schlesinger of the Wall Street Journal writes that Kerry's speech yesterday was part of an offensive to try to retake control of the debate over Iraq and Vietnam.
The resourceful David Halbfinger ends his news of day wrap with this tidbit: LINK
"Later, in Rochester, Minn., Mr. Kerry denied that he had used Dr. Dean's critique of Mr. Bush's handling of the war. 'I don't think I borrowed anything; that's a phrase that I've used,' Mr. Kerry told an interviewer from the Minneapolis NBC affiliate, KARE."
On Kerry's Iraq policy, the New York Times editorial board writes: "Given the political corner Mr. Kerry has painted himself into, it's not surprising that his advisers are urging him to start concentrating on the economy. But Iraq is still the great crisis confronting the United States. While the temptation to dodge it at this point is natural, Mr. Kerry should resist." LINK
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) lays out what an America's foreign policy would look like with a Democrat in charge.
Since it's all about Iraq no matter what anyone says, take a look at the Boston Globe 's Pat Healy insight into a potential Iraq strategy (novel idea) for the Democratic nominee. LINK
"While Kerry did not offer a detailed strategy of his own for Iraq, several advisers said they were examining options for withdrawing US troops from Iraq by the end of 2008, a goal the Democratic presidential nominee set on Monday. Ideas include convening a series of meetings with other heads of state, first Europeans and then Middle Eastern leaders, and offering financial incentives that invite nations like Russia, France, Egypt, and Jordan to contribute troops to Iraq."
Ah, but the detailed strategy is reportedly coming. The Washington Post 's Paul Farhi and Jim VandeHei wrap Senator Kerry's speech yesterday, and look ahead to Kerry laying out his plan for military operations there. LINK
"Aides said Kerry is planning a speech soon in which he will offer a detailed plan to end, or greatly curtail, the U.S. military operation in Iraq by January 2009 and reduce the cost to U.S. taxpayers in the interim. The twin offensive is designed to help Kerry regain his political footing on Iraq as the number of U.S. personnel killed there topped 1,000. Recent national polls show a majority of voters trust Bush more than Kerry on Iraq."
"Kerry's speech Wednesday also seemed aimed at regaining the offensive on Iraq after facing scathing attacks from Bush and his allies over what they portrayed as the Democrat's shifting positions on the war," writes the talented Michael Finnegan of the Los Angeles Times. LINK
"Iraq war costs us at home, Kerry says in new tactic" is how the Cincinnati Enquirer's headline goes. LINK
In that piece, Greg Korte waits until the eighth paragraph to write, "Twelve times in the speech, Kerry accused Bush of making 'wrong choices,' usually with this refrain: 'That's the wrong choice; that's the wrong direction; and that's the wrong leadership for America.'"
The Enquirer's ed board writes, "It was a relief to move past mudslinging over Vietnam-era military service and hear some substantive argument." LINK
The Columbus Dispatch's headline: "Kerry blasts Bush on Iraq war." LINK
The Columbus Dispatch's analysis headline: "Kerry responding too slowly." LINK
Howard Kurtz of the Washington Post analyzes the new Kerry ad "Wrong Choices." LINK
Electoral College review (or Ron Fournier stirs the pot):
ABC News' Teddy Davis reports the Kerry campaign is currently on the air with television ads in only seven states — Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and West Virginia — and that in those states, the campaign is "not even on in every market," per Kerry media consultant Bill Knapp.
But Knapp claims the limited buy is all part of a "phased in" eight-week ad strategy that will "build over time."
Starting on Tuesday, the Kerry campaign will be on the air in three other states — Oregon, Michigan and New Mexico — bringing the total to 10. The ad time for these three states has already been purchased.
The DNC, according to the AP's Ron Fournier and Liz Sidoti, is airing television ads in Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, and Washington, in addition to most of the 10 states listed above. LINK
"The shift bumps GOP-leaning Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and several Southern states off the political playing field — at least for now — and gives Bush reason to consider moving money from some of those states to others that historically trend Democratic," write Fournier and Sidoti.
Knapp tells ABC News he has reserved — but not bought — ad time for the Kerry campaign in Missouri, Colorado, North Carolina, Arkansas and Louisiana. In an interview with the AP, Tad Devine, another Kerry media consultant and strategist, also mentioned Arizona as a state where the Kerry campaign has reserved — but not bought — ad time.
"This race is going to be decided late," says Knapp. "We're going to be very heavy at the end."
As we keep saying, the presidential race is fluid and things can change. But as we focus in on the Electoral College as November 2 gets closer and the campaigns make choices, the number of truly contested states has dwindled and may continue to do so.
In our recent Electoral College ratings, we had 19 states listed as battlegrounds.
Discussions with strategists in both parties suggest that in the next few weeks, the following thirteen states could likely be the only battlegrounds left — giving the citizens in a baker's dozen states the job of picking the next president. Of course, John Kerry's national poll numbers could improve which could expand the list again. And, yes, declaring something a battleground is not solely based on advertising dollars spent in that state, but it has a whole heck of a lot to do with it.
FloridaOhioWisconsinMinnesota PennsylvaniaWest VirginiaNew Mexico MichiganOregonIowaNevada New HampshireMissouri
And some number of the last seven of those states could end up off the list by the last few weeks also — maybe even the last nine!!! That would leave the first four states listed above deciding the entire race.
As has been the case all along, the advantage in the Electoral College goes to the president (because of his bigger solid base) and the dwindling battleground list closes up Kerry's margin of error even tighter.
Without running through all the permutations, Kerry needs to win a big number of these states to get to 270.
The debate about debates:
While all sorts of pot-stirring about the debates continues from a great many sides (not just the campaigns), here's what it comes down to.
1. The Commission on Presidential Debates has released a list of proposed debate dates, sites, topics, formats, and moderators.
2. The Kerry campaign has said in public that they accept those proposals.
3. The Bush campaign is reportedly contemplating focusing its brand-new negotiating team on whittling that schedule down a bit, cutting out the town-hall style debate at Washington University in St. Louis, in the great bellwether state of Missouri.
4. Neither campaign has been in touch with the Commission on Presidential Debates, we're told — not to say they accept, they decline, they have a problem with paragraph 4 subsection II(a) — NADA.
5. ABC News has learned that the Kerry debate negotiating team adds a new member this morning: Mike McCurry.
McCurry joins a team lead by Vernon Jordan that includes Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Jim Johnson, and Robert Barnett.
On the BC04 side: James A. Baker, III, Robert B. Zoellick, Haley Barbour, Allan B. Hubbard, Karen Hughes and Mary Matalin.
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch warns the locals of the possibility that they may not be hosting a presidential debate after all. LINK
More debate news: the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that journalists have been asked "to disclose their race on the media application."LINK
As of Aug. 4, "More than 670 students and 106 faculty and staff members" had already volunteered to help with the debate, according to the school's Web site. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:
First, we reiterate that we're looking forward to the new ABC News- Washington Post poll out today.
The CBS "Early Show" unveiled a new CBS poll this morning, showing President Bush at 49 percent and Senator Kerry at 42 percent. Among independents, Bush leads Kerry 48 percent to 39 percent. LINK
Other highlights:
--Kerry support among women drops 10 points (Bush now leads by 5), among men drops 8.
--Bush's terrorism approval rating jumps 9 points (including 36 percent of Democrats, up 12 percent since convention)
--Bush gets 5 percent bump up on Iraq approval rating, 7 percent bump on economy approval rating
"Lot of confidence" in Kerry's ability to make the right choices on terrorism: 26
Not much/no confidence in same: 37 percent
Fewer than half say Kerry has a clear plan for the next four years . . . more than half say Bush has a clear plan
USA Today 's Susan Page writes that the president holds "clear leads" over Kerry in Missouri and Ohio according to the new USA Today /CNN/Gallup poll. LINK
USA Today 's Kathy Kiely looks at the battle for the heartland, Noting that a " USA TODAY database of campaign schedules shows that the candidates and their running mates are returning again and again to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, West Virginia and Minnesota. Since March, they have visited those eight states 170 times, compared with just 74 visits to the other nine battleground states." LINK
Deb Orin of the New York Post writes up the Gallup numbers and declares President Bush has "gotten a big boost" in Ohio and Missouri. LINK
In the Hill, Kerry pollster Mark Mellman lambastes the Gallup Poll's likely voter model. (No, the proceeding sentence is not a satire). He says that there were several times in 2000 when likely voters and registered voters in the Gallup sample had diametrically opposite reactions to the same world events. Or the "differences could be accounted for by a dramatic change in who is going to vote." Unlikely, says Mellman. So what's wrong with the model? Read and see . . . (He obviously prefers the registered voter sample.)
A Bush strategist conveys some advice to Kerry-Edwards a la Bill Sammon of the Washington Times : Keep on talking national security, Iraq and Vietnam for the next 54 days. "As long as they're talking about national security, we're winning every single day and he's digging a deeper hole," a senior Bush strategist says. "Amazingly, even when Bill Clinton gives Kerry advice to stop talking about Iraq and Vietnam, he proceeds to keep talking about both of them. It's very helpful." LINK
The point of Dick Morris' New York Post column seems to be to denigrate Paul Begala and James Carville and to float Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential run again. LINK
George Will writes in today's Washington Post that John Kerry doesn't understand the macho world of post-9/11 politics. LINK
"Kerry is the candidate of the intellectually vain — of those who, practicing the politics of condescension, consider Bush moronic. But Kerry is unwilling to engage Bush's idea. . . . Hence he is allowing Bush to have what he wants, a one-issue election. The issue is a conflation of the wars in Iraq and on terrorism in the single subject "security." Kerry is trying, and failing, to pry apart judgments about the two. But even if he succeeds, he continues to deepen the risible incoherence of his still-multiplying positions on Iraq."
"Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore (R), who is chairman of President Bush's reelection campaign in Virginia, might be changing his mind about whether Democratic Senator John F. Kerry could win the state's 13 electoral votes," reports Michael D. Shear of the Washington Post . LINK
According to a poll sponsored by the German Marshall Fund, Europeans are becoming increasingly critical of President Bush, reports the Washington Post 's Glenn Kessler. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:
Playing the "follow the opponent with TV ads" game, the Kerry-Edwards campaign goes on the air in Pennsylvania today with two new spots. President Bush attends rallies in Johnstown and Colmar, and the Kerry spots are called — predictably — "Johnstown" and "Philadelphia."
"Philadelphia" focuses on Medicare, and "Johnstown" talks about health care and wages. Both are 30-second spots, and they're part of the $50 million ad buy.
Scripts:
"Philadelphia"
Narrator: Four years ago, George Bush came to Philadelphia promising to strengthen "Medicare for the greatest generation." Four years later, Bush imposes the largest Medicare increase in history. Now Bush is back, but around here we remember Bush's broken promises. It's time for a new direction. John Kerry — a real plan to strengthen Medicare and lower healthcare costs. John Kerry — stronger at home, respected in the world.
John Kerry:I'm John Kerry and I approved this message.
"Johnstown"
Narrator: In 2000 George Bush never bothered to come to Johnstown. Now he's here promising to take the side of working families. But we know what matters — facts, not promises. Healthcare costs are skyrocketing. And family wages are down $1500. It's time for a new direction. John Kerry — a real plan to cut middle class taxes and reduce health care costs. John Kerry -stronger at home, respected in the world.
John Kerry: I'm John Kerry and I approved this message.
We tease Al Hunt for being (perhaps) ironically self-referential sometimes (e.g., "Senator Kerry has made several much-needed, if belated, changes . . . Understandably, this hasn't quelled Democratic angst among those who wonder if Senator Kerry has blown it . . . ") but the veteran journalist has some of the best sources in the business and has a better read for elite Democratic CW than just about anyone else.
Today, he writes:
"Senator Kerry offered a hard-hitting critique of the failed Iraq policy yesterday. But he soon has to do a better job explaining what he would do to get out of the quagmire; getting more help from allies isn't sufficient. A major debate among his advisers is whether he ought to set a precise timetable, pledge that we will guard the borders for a reasonable period but that within a few years Iraq has to be self-sufficient. Some leading advisers say timetables are irresponsible — an invitation, in the words of one, for "unmitigated hell" from the insurgents — but that probably is where American policy is headed no matter who wins the election. There simply isn't public support for an open-ended commitment."
"Mr. Kerry is not going to win the commander-in-chief issues; challengers never do. But he needs to temper some of the patently phony Bush-Cheney campaign claims before moving on to issues of his choice."
"Then, barring unforeseen events, it's hard to see how voters won't gravitate more to the economy and jobs' concerns by October. The Bush administration tries to obfuscate a dreadful record — blaming it on 9/11 — or just claims disappointing news is good news, witness the bragging about last month's mediocre unemployment record."
Boston Globe columnist Joan Vennochi wisely reminds us that, when it comes right down to it, it's all about the candidate, not the consultants. Ex.: "A new circle of advisers can hand John Kerry a new line of attack, such as stating that the W in his opponent's name stands for 'wrong.' But they can't stop Kerry from holding up a rifle he received as a gift while visiting Racine, W. Va., and quipping, 'I thank you for the gift, but I can't take it to the debate with me.'"LINK
In the Hill, Dick Morris thinks that the Clinton loyalists in the Kerry campaign still have the same loyalty and alleges that the leak of the Clinton-Kerry pre-surgery conversation "came, undoubtedly, from the Clinton people, who wanted to hype the role their former president was playing in the Kerry operation, precisely to cast the senator as weak and dependent on Clinton's advice." LINK
If all the people of the world good vote for the U.S. President (which, of course, is a tad absurd for obvious reasons), Senator John Kerry would win the election, according to the Boston Globe 's write-up of a University of Maryland survey. LINK
Perhaps this is who Kerry was referring to re: foreign leaders?
"In 30 out of 35 countries polled, from all regions of the world, a majority or plurality would prefer to see John Kerry win the US presidential election-especially traditional US allies. The only countries where President Bush was preferred were the Philippines, Nigeria, and Poland." LINK
Taking his Salon transatlantic, Sidney Blumenthal says "at this moment of disdain a discovery that cast light on Bush's character suddenly emerged, having the potential to alter the momentum of the campaign." (Not sure Kerry will enjoy the phrase "reeling in treat" to describe his campaign . . . ) LINK
Oliver North takes on John Kerry's anti-war activities. LINK
Amy Keller reports the Reserve Officers Association will screen the film a new documentary of John Kerry's anti-war protest called "Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal" this morning. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
Dana Milbank of the Washington Post reports that it "seems that the Bush campaign is inflating its crowd counts by 45 to 75 percent" after comparing his own count to those of the Bush campaign. Milbank also Notes that the number of battleground states might be shrinking. LINK
Your pooler David Sanger of the New York Times enjoyed writing his daily dispatch with the Bush brothers in Florida. LINK
"Mr. Bush took no questions from the reporters who accompanied him, which helped keep him on the message of the day. He stayed focused on the weather — and flew back into some, as Washington was placed under a tornado watch just as the president took his last helicopter trip of the day, back to the White House."
The New York Times ' account of Bush's change of face on NID budgetary authority leads the paper. The duo of Bumiller and Shenon Note that the action was "an acquiescence to a major recommendation of the Sept. 11 commission." LINK
Bush's big domestic agenda, which he touted at the Republican Convention, may crimp plans to curb the deficit, reports the Wall Street Journal 's John McKinnon.
Bravo to McKinnon for hitting those transition costs!!!!
"A representative of the White House recently called Neal Shapiro, president of NBC News, to discourage that network from broadcasting interviews with Ms. Kelley about the book on its 'Today' program and on its MSNBC cable program 'Hardball With Chris Matthews,'" reports David Kirkpatrick of the New York Times . LINK
That representative, ABC News has learned, was White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett.
Sharon Bush, in a statement, denied that she "ever told Kitty Kelley that George W. Bush used cocaine at Camp David or that I ever saw him use cocaine at Camp David," reports the Washington Post 's Howard Kurtz. LINK
The politics of Iraq:
"With the latest spike in violence in Baghdad, more U.S. troops have died since the turnover of power to an interim Iraqi government at the end of June than were killed during the U.S.-led invasion of the country in the spring of 2003," reports Thomas Ricks of the Washington Post . LINK
The New York Times James Dao looks at two American families who lost family members in Iraq and how it is affecting their decision for whom to vote in November. LINK
The politics of national security:
The Washington Post 's Walter Pincus and Dana Milbank look at President Bush's proposal to give the new national intelligence director "broad powers to plan intelligence agencies' spending priorities and clandestine activities, making a concession to lawmakers moving to implement the more sweeping proposals of the Sept. 11 commission." LINK
The duo Note, however, that the plan does not follow all 9/11 commission recommendations. "Bush's plan would not place the intelligence chief in the office of the president, and would give the chief full authority over only the 70 percent of the intelligence budget that is not related solely to military operations. The White House would leave intelligence gathering organizations such as the National Security Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office under the Pentagon's authority."
The Los Angeles Times headline does not include the word flip-flop: "Bush Now Backs Stronger Spy Czar." LINK
"While top Democrats and some prominent Republicans are calling on Congress to approve all 41 recommendations of the commission that investigated the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, House GOP leaders are taking a notably different tack. Saying they will craft their own bill and rely heavily on their own expertise, they sometimes scoff at those who simply want to write the commission's proposals into law," writes Chuck Babington of the Washington Post . LINK
The economy:
The Labor Department reports this morning that "The number of Americans signing up for first-time jobless benefits plunged last week. The government says that partly reflects a tapering off of filings related to Hurricane Charley," AP writes. New unemployment claims dropped by seasonally adjusted 44,000 from last week — the largest drop since early December 2001.
Keep raising rates, that's Greenspan hinted the Fed'll do. LINK
The New York Post Notes Greenspan's "regained some traction" comment from yesterday's testimony on the health of the American economy. LINK
Congress returns:
Democratic Senators vowed put the brakes on legislative action if GOP leaders seek votes on controversial issues in the few pre-election weeks to come, Mark Preston of Roll Call reports. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: The Big Four: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin:
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Steve Schultze reports that Bush donors outnumber Kerry donors two to one in Wisconsin. LINK
The Columbus Dispatch's Jonathan Riskind reports that Kerry is overwhelming preferred in some surveys of foreign countries. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:
Will Arizona reemerge as a top-tier battleground state after John Kerry reads Maria La Ganga's story in today's Los Angeles Times? LINK
"Announcement of the premium increase comes less than two months before voters go to the polls. In addition, nearly two-thirds of the battleground states, including Arizona, have a higher percentage of residents over 65 than the nation as a whole. And polls show that many Medicare recipients are already dissatisfied with controversial changes in the program enacted in December, which would add prescription drug coverage for some."
"What this all means is that changes in Medicare — the primary insurance program for people 65 and older — could reverberate throughout the fall election, said political scientists who specialize in issues of aging."
A new Albuquerque Journal poll finds that "New Mexicans are confident the U.S. government can protect its citizens from terrorist attacks and believe the country is gaining ground in its war on terror … The poll also shows more New Mexicans believe President George W. Bush — not John Kerry, his Democratic challenger — is the right man to handle the war on terrorism." LINK
The Arizona primaries Tuesday were won by conservative Republicans — forcing Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano to put on a brave face. LINK
The Denver Post Notes Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik is on the ballot in in 41 states. On a campaign jag to visit the independent minded people of Colorado, Badnarik took a swipe at Bush. "George Bush has increased the size of our government 7 1/2 times, more than the 2 1/2 times that Bill Clinton increased it." LINK
The Denver Post reports the liberal-Christian-New York-based magazine Sojourners plans to take out a full-page ad Friday in The Gazette of Colorado Springs proclaiming, "God is not a Republican. Or a Democrat," as part of their campaign to counter the message of Focus on the Family and other conservative Christian groups. LINK
Dick Polman Notes if Bush "wins the Philadelphia suburbs Nov. 2, he will probably win Pennsylvania. And if he wins Pennsylvania, he probably wins the election." All 43 has to do is "reverse the tide of recent political history." LINK
The politics of guns:
Bill Frist's Will of the People?
"Despite widespread popular support, the federal law banning the sale of 19 kinds of semiautomatic assault weapons is almost certain to expire on Monday, the result of intense lobbying by the National Rifle Association and the complicated election-year politics of Washington," reports the New York Times Sheryl Gay Stolberg. LINK
The NRA today begins a half a million dollar per-week ad buy in a half dozen states.
The Washington Post ed board challenges the president to act to extend the assault weapons ban. LINK
The politics of Hurricane Frances:
If anyone is going to gain politically from the devastation Charley, Frances, and likely now Ivan are leaving behind in that vital battleground state of Florida, it's time to score one for Bush. Note from the AP: "Images of Bush hoisting supplies into a line of idling cars and urging residents to 'Hang in there,' were shown repeatedly on local television news." Priceless. LINK
Thomas Collins and Will Vash of the Palm Beach Post wrap President Bush's visit to a Ft. Pierce relief center Wednesday, where he handed out water, ice, and food, and brought with him $2 billion in federal aid for Florida.LINK
An estimated 284,000 people are still without power, the Palm Beach Post reports.LINK
The politics of labor:
The Washington Post 's David Broder reflects on the decline of power and influence of labor unions in American politics — and what it's meant to workers. LINK
The politics of trade:
Paul Blustein of the Washington Post takes a look at the sharp differences exposed in a debate on trade held yesterday by two unofficial surrogates of the Bush and Kerry campaigns. LINK
From the outside:
Tonight, America Coming Together hosts its latest star-studded venture this morning: Artists Coming Together, launched with an opening tonight at Stanley Grinstein's Gemini Gallery in Los Angeles. Artists including Frank Gehry, Jasper Johns, Susan Rothenberg, Elizabeth Murray, John Baldessari, Cecily Brown, Ellsworth Kelly, Robert Rauschenberg, Ed Ruscha and Richard Serra, donated a limited number of signed, original works to be given to select ACT donors (view them at LINK). Additional gallery openings featuring the "Artists Coming Together" prints will be held in New Mexico, Minneapolis, Chicago, Santa Fe, Miami and New York City.
ABC News Vote 2004: Nader-Camejo '04:
With a sure place on the Michigan ballot, Ralph Nader plans to campaign on the campuses of the University of Michigan and Michigan State University next Monday. LINK
The Michigan Daily Notes some students are not happy about it. LINK
Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell certified that the independent candidate will appear on the November 2nd ballot in the Mother of All Battlegrounds: Ohio. LINK
Rejecting challenges by Democrats, Maine's secretary of state has declared that Ralph Nader´s name should stay on ballots in Maine as an independent candidate for president Nov. 2, reports Francis Quinn of the AP. LINK
The AP reports, a judge in Florida has delayed Nader's certification on the ballot after a six hour hearing yesterday. The Florida Democratic Party is suing to keep Nader off the ballot, because they say the Reform Party isn't a viable party and that the nominating proceedings don't past muster. LINK
Casting and counting:
The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports that trade associations and companies, particularly BIPAC and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, are "heeding the call" of the Bush campaign to encourage their members and employees to take advantage of early voting procedures. LINK
"BIPAC estimates that more than 500 business associations and companies are using their Web link, www.ezvote.org, to learn about the new early-voting laws in their states, to register to vote and to download applications for absentee ballots."
Politics:The Wall Street Journal 's Al Hunt looks at the "crucial" role Texas is playing in who controls the House.
Stu Rothenberg Notes "August has been a cruel month for the Democratic Party, both for its presidential nominee and its two federal campaign committees." LINK
Roll Call reports Secretary of States are looking at Katherine Harris as a cautionary tale and avoiding partisan entanglements in this year's (presumably tight) election. LINK
Comedian Bill Cosby returned to Washington for a special meeting of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's conference this week "to tell black policy-makers and activists that they must join together to lead a new social movement to help strengthen black families," reports the Washington Times . LINK
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:30 am: Labor Department releases the weekly report on initial jobless claims—9:00 am: James Schlesinger, chairman of the Independent Panel to Review Department of Defense Detention Operations, testifies before the House Armed Services Committee, Washington, DC—9:30 am: The Senate convenes and begins a period of morning business—9:30 am: Secretary of State Colin Powell testifies before Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC—10:00 am: Sen. John Kerry attends a roundtable discussion, Des Moines, IA—10:30 am: The House Select Intelligence Committee meets to receive a closed briefing on current terrorist threats, Washington, DC—10:30 am: Former Vice President Al Gore speak with steelworkers and union leaders, Pittsburgh, PA —10:35 am: Sen. Kerry holds a town hall meeting, Des Moines, IA—10:45 am: Jenna and Barbara Bush speak at the University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, IA—11:00 am: First Lady Laura Bush tours and delivers remarks at Mahar Tool Supply headquarters, Saginaw, MI—11:15 am: Sen. Edwards participates in a town hall meeting at Daniel Webster College, Nashua, NH—12:35 pm: President Bush makes remarks in Colmar, PA—1:45 pm: Jenna and Barbara Bush speak at the Quality Inn/The Highlander, Iowa City, IA—2:00 pm: Vice President Cheney attends a town hall meeting, Cincinnati, OH —2:00 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell takes a courtesy call from the national commander of the American Legion, Washington, DC—2:00pm: The House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on the investigation of military intelligence activities at the Abu Ghraib prison facility, Washington, DC—2:30 pm: James Schlesinger, chairman of the Independent Panel to Review Department of Defense Detention Operations, testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Washington, DC—3:00 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell meets with the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, Washington, DC—4:00 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell meets with the African Secretary of the National Summit of Africa, Washington, DC—4:00 pm: Howard Dean gives lecture at Brown University, Providence, RI—4:25 pm: Mrs. Bush speaks at a Victory '04 rally in Bayfront Park, Duluth, MN—4:45 pm: Jenna and Barbara Bush hold a photo-op at the Iowa State University Memorial Union, Ames, IA —5:00 pm: President Bush makes remarks in Johnstown, PA—5:00 pm: Sen. Kerry addresses the 124th Annual Session of the National Baptist Convention, New Orleans, LA—6:00 pm: Mrs. Bush speaks at a Victory '04 Dinner at a private residence, St. Paul, MN—6:30 pm: Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at a fundraiser for the 2004 Joint State Victory Committee, Green Bay, WI—7:00 pm: Sen. Edwards attends a KE'04 Victory Fund reception at the Marriot Hotel, Washington, DC—7:45 pm: Sen. Edwards attends a KE'04 Victory Fund reception at a private residence, Washington, DC