The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, May 26, 2004—
-- NOTED NOW
TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
NEWS SUMMARY
The chatter this morning will turn to terror warnings, as Memorial Day/conventions/Olympics and other ripe target days approach.
It is somewhat more favorable terrain for the president; as we've pointed out, what some consider the key threshold for the president — are we (you) safer today than you were four years ago (or after September 11) still sits above 50 percent. Americans believe, by and large, that George W. Bush is doing a good job in this area.
But even more than Iraq, perhaps, terrorism is beyond the administration's control, which makes dealing effectively with it a potentially shaky base on which to build a re-election campaign.
In the political world, President Bush has a single scheduled event today — he meets with the president of Gabon at the White House.
Sen. Kerry continues to campaign on the West Coast today, in Seattle, with a midday discussion about energy independence. He fundraises in the evening and continues to prepare for his big Thursday speech, wherein he'll (depending on who's spinning it) (a) enunciate new principles for a post-war Iraq (b) explain why a President Kerry would better implement President Bush's Iraq policy (c) reiterate the detailed plan he's been promoting for months or something else entirely.
Will Al Gore foment unrest on Kerry's left today? And how will the conservative media echo chamber amplify his call resignations en masse?
Adam Nagourney and Dick Stevenson in the New York Times ** offer this on-background take on the dilemma Kerry faces from "one adviser who Mr. Kerry relies on heavily."
"[Kerry is] caught between what would be politically advantageous, declaring a timetable for getting out, and what he knows is the reality on the ground, which is that we need more troops … .And the internal debates have often been between the camps in the campaign who want a clear break from the Bush policy and those who want to portray Bush as largely incompetent in executing what strategy they had." LINK
On Hardball last night, Chris Matthews browbeat Terry Holt into making this joke: "But in John Kerry's case, he went to Vietnam … He took his own photo camera, by the way, so he could get some good pictures."
The Kerry campaign called it an "attack" on the candidate's Vietnam record. You make the call.
**= LINK
On campaign finance and the conventions, we're told that he plans to announce his decision within 36 hours whether to postpone accepting the Democratic presidential nomination. The Massachusetts Congressional delegation will most likely publicly agree to whatever Kerry decides so long as the legal status is unambiguously clear. Which it's really not, considering Sen. Kerry's stated desire to have his vice presidential nominee accept the nomination at the convention. Perhaps he was telegraphing.
As Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei point out, those unanswered questions include:
— Can Kerry accept $15 million in convention money if he doesn't accept the nomination?— Can one be officially 'nominated' but not officially accept the nomination? Or accept it later?— Can the President and Vice President somehow be nominated separately?
"Campaign officials said they have received positive reactions from their convention delegates and some state party leaders, but other Democrats said privately they thought the idea was not worth the trouble. Some senior Democrats have conveyed that assessment to the highest levels of the Kerry campaign." LINK
One of those fuming is perhaps the most important of all: Teddy Kennedy. LINK
Other convention coverage:
—The Boston Globe on happy Dem delegates NOT from Boston: LINK
—George McGovern thinks it's an awful idea: LINK
—Glen Johnson writes up more Sen. Kerry in his own words on how he envisions the convention — a kind of history-paving-the-way-for-future theme: LINK
On to that Republican convention: the ink is still drying, but the deal is done. Time Warner (parent company of CNN, TIME Magazine, and other fine media outlets) is set to become one of the official sponsors of the Republican National Convention.
The New York Host Committee is set to announce today that Time Warner will host the welcoming party for the thousands of journalists descending upon Gotham to cover the GOP bash. Get out your blackberries and palm pilots — Saturday Aug. 28, 2004 at the swanky new Time Warner Center at Columbus Circle (with Per Se back up and running). LINK
We're a little puzzled that yesterday's announcement of the Leadership Forum's ambitious goal to become the GOP 527 standard bearer received so little coverage.
Susan Hirschmann, Rep. Tom Delay's former Chief of Staff, and former Rep. Bill Paxon, he of "a Republican close to the White House" and uber-fundraising fame, will helm the new group, which plans to raise tens of millions of dollars through November and spend it on direct mail, robocalls, television ads, radio ads and more.
The group hopes to raise as much money as America Coming Together, the Media Fund, and America Votes combined, according to an official.
Paxon told ABC News that Republican donors were somewhat chilled by the legal fights and didn't contribute much in the first year of the Forum's existence. But when the FEC decided last month to allow 527 activity to proceed unchallenged, the floodgates opened.
Hirschmann told ABC News that the Leadership Forum would probably coordinate its activities with other GOP 527s.
Speaker Hastert and Sen. Rick Santorum will headline Forum events (NOT fundraisers) in the weeks ahead.
Check out the Wall Street Journal's John Harwood today, who writes the Dems' "leveling" of the "financial playing field" thus far this season is a "significant victory." LINK
In the land of veepstakes, the Texas Democratic Party announced yesterday that Sen. John Edwards, who it propitiously called a "potential Vice Presidential candidate" will headline its June 18 convention in Houston.
The AP found Sen. Bayh with lowered expectations on the potential for him joining the Democratic ticket this year. LINK
Dick Gephardt plugs John McCain, Notes the New York Times . LINK
Howard Dean's Democracy for America put up an online petition against paperless voting, and within 24 hours, it accumulated more than 60,000 signatures — quite a high burn rate. LINK
In House and Senate news, the DSCC crows about new poll numbers from Kentucky, of all places, and the DCCC launches a regular web animation program today on www.dtriptv.org.
The cartoon is called "Republican Survivor," and it's the first program for what they're calling Dtrip TV. You can probably guess what you might see characters such as the president, the Vice President, John Ashcroft, Katherine Harris, Tom DeLay and Ann Coulter doing on a deserted island. The preview goes up at noon today, and then the regular weekly series begins on June 3, where viewers will be able to vote one of the characters off in each of the ensuing six episodes. Will Rogers and Woody Guthrie are smiling somewhere.
Here's the best of the rest — the must-read coverage and commentary.
The New York Times ' Kristof urges Kerry to put some distance between himself and Ariel Sharon. LINK(Ralph Nader would agree).
The New York Times ' David Sanger reports that Bush's Tuesday trip to Ohio, coming on the heels of his Monday Iraq address, "underscored how intent his campaign was to show that the war had not distracted him from the everyday concerns of voters." LINK
Mike Allen's take on the battleground state echo chamber(s). LINK
The Seattle Times' David Postman previews Kerry's Seattle stop — including the sold-out fundraiser estimated to bring in more than $2 million that could be the most lucrative ever held in the city. LINK
Knight Ridder's James Kuhnhenn wraps Kerry's call to decrease the U.S.' dependence on foreign oil with his continued criticism of the president's foreign policy. LINK
Joanna Weiss of the Boston Globe on the grassroots campaign to rid the presidential race of Ralph Nader: LINK
USA Today's Jill Lawrence Notes that both Bush and Kerry are trying to capitalize on growing concerns over the gas prices. LINK
Lloyd Groves leads with an item that the Bonesman who tapped George Bush into the Skull and Bones secret society at Yale in 1967 is voting for Kerry in November. LINK
The latest Zogby numbers. LINK
George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush:
NBC's Matt Lauer sat down with former President George H. W. Bush a few weeks before he celebrates his 80th birthday by jumping out of an airplane.
When asked how difficult it would be to see his son lose his reelection campaign, former President Bush said, "I'm not going to worry about that with him. I'm confident. I'm very confident. Elections are decided by the economy, and my problem was the economy was good but I couldn't get people to understand that. This economy is strong. It will be stronger in the fall. Even without that, I think the country is looking for a strong leader and it's got one and they will want him to serve more."
On the prisoner abuse scandal and how he felt when he saw pictures of American troops abusing Iraqis detainees: "I felt like every other American. Everyone was deeply offended and hurt, just as the president was, and just as not only in our family but around the country. And I felt more offended when I saw a head held up where they guy had sawed it off. If I thought I had a new answer, I would talk to George, but I don't need to complicate the life of the president."
On books criticizing his son: "It's hurtful. When you see all those books. It's all anti-Bush. It's all anti-my family. But I don't feel the need to respond, nor does Barbara."
On whether his son was "obsessed" by waging war against Iraq: GHWB: "That's a bunch of bull." Barbara Bush: "Truthfully no. He did it because it was the right thing to do."
On if his grandchildren told him they were going into politics: "I'd say great. Do it. Do it for the right reasons … Because unlike a lot of people, I still believe politics is a noble calling.
On jumping out of an airplane for the third time: "It feels good. Even if you are 80, stuff still feels pretty good, you know what I mean?"
On his legacy: "In the first place, you are using a dirty word … For me it's a word that means you're interested in how everybody will treat you and this kind of thing. I am not. I am confident that historians will say we had more positives than negatives and got a lot of things right."
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET): —9:00 am: The National Archives and Records Administration releases approximately 20,000 pages of transcripts of Henry Kissinger's telephone conversations during his tenure as assistant to the president for national security affairs and secretary of state during the Nixon Administration. The archives will also release materials from the "White House Central Files" subject files, including among other things a minor amount of material relating to Sen. John Kerry, College Park, Md.—9:45 am: Off-camera gaggle by White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan—10:00 am: The Commerce Department releases the new home sales report for April.—10:00 am: Amnesty International holds a news conference to discuss its "2004 Annual Report on Human Rights in 155 Countries," Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: The Department of Homeland Security's Transportation Security Administration discusses strategy for managing summer passenger loads at Kennedy airport and its initiative to expedite security screening, New York, N.Y.—10:15 am: Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage meets with Japanese deputy vice minister for foreign policy, Washington D.C.—10:55 am: President Bush meets with the President of Gabon, Washington, D.C.—12:00 pm: Ralph Nader holds a media availability at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Mass. —12:30 pm: On-camera White House briefing from McClellan—12:30 pm: Al Gore delivers foreign policy address calling for the resignation of five members of the Bush Administration and one member of the military command responsible for the failed policy and abuse of prisoners in Iraq sponsored by MoveOn, New York, N.Y.—12:30 pm: Ralph Nader meets with supporters and volunteers, Amherst, Mass.—12:45 pm: Sen. John Kerry talks about energy independence, Seattle, Wash.—1:00 pm: Gordon England, secretary of the Navy, addresses a National Press Club luncheon, Washington, D.C.—2:00 pm: Attorney General John Ashcroft and FBI Director Robert Mueller hold a press conference to discuss the terrorism threat during the summer. Washington, D.C.—2:00 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell meets with Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja, Washington, D.C.—2:15 pm: Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage participates in the signing of the Open Skies Agreement with Paulette Missambo, minister of state for transportation and civil aviation of Gabon, Washington, D.C.—3:00 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell announces the 2004-2005 winners of the Jefferson Science Fellowship, Washington, D.C.—3:00 pm: Labor Secretary Elaine Chao delivers remarks to members of the United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce at their NAFTA and CAFTA Conference, Washington, D.C.—8:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a campaign fundraising reception, Seattle, Wash.