The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, May 25, 2004—
-- NOTED NOW
TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
NEWS SUMMARY
Things that are vitally important:
1. The next round of public polls and the taste, smell, and feel of the political oxygen that exists until they are released.
2. John Kerry's upcoming foreign policy gambit; Ron Brownstein is waiting, and he's an impatient cuss.
3. The dominant media's lack of inclination to cut the president a break on Iraq these days. (See (1) above.)
4. The rise of Republican 527s.
Things that are meaningless:
1. Jim Rutenberg's front-page New York Times story creating moral and factual equivalency between the exaggerations and truth stretching in the various campaign ads.
2. Carl Hulse's New York Times lead on reaction to the president's speech: "President Bush's address on his strategy for Iraq failed on Monday night to convert Democrats who say the administration is mishandling the conflict and the looming transfer of power there, while Republicans said he presented a coherent plan for the weeks and months ahead."
President Bush meets with Iraqis receiving medical care in the U.S. at the White House and participates in a conversation on Health Care and Community Health Centers in Youngstown, Ohio.
Sen. Kerry attends the launch of his new campaign plane at Reagan National Airport in Washington, holds a conversation with teachers and community leaders about plans to lower gas prices and make American energy independent in Portland, Ore., and attends a fundraiser reception in the evening at the Benson Hotel also in Portland.
Ralph Nader speaks about local and state issues in Hartford, Conn.
The Senate and House are in recess until June 1.
The President's speech and the politics of Iraq:
Keying off the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll, the Washington Post's Dan Balz and Richard Morin report, "Public approval of President Bush's handling of the conflict in Iraq has dropped to its lowest point with growing fears that the United States is bogged down and rising criticism of Bush's handling of the prison abuse scandal." LINK
And yet — there's evidence that the crucial threshold hasn't been crossed. "When matched against Kerry on issues of national security and terrorism, Bush was seen as a stronger leader and more reliable in keeping the country safe and more trusted in dealing with a national crisis. Bush also bested Kerry on who is better equipped to deal with Iraq and the war on terrorism, although Bush's margins have declined in the past month."
The headline on Ron Brownstein's Los Angeles Times must-read blares, "Onus Now on Kerry's Iraq Plan." LINK
Brownstein Notes nothing "new" came out of the President's speech (save the potential Abu Ghraib demolition) but questions if John Kerry's call for better "leadership" is enough to serve as an alternative.
"By reaching out at least partially to estranged allies, the proposed U.N. resolution seems designed to blunt another principal charge against Bush's Iraq policy: the allegation by Kerry and others that the U.S. is bearing too much of the burden because the president has alienated too many other nations."
"These subtle mid-course corrections may not help Bush much if conditions do not improve in Iraq itself. But they show that the president is not waiting for a decisive change in Iraq to try to alter the terms of debate at home. And they may compel Kerry to demonstrate the same flexibility in adjusting his plans to a rapidly shifting landscape in the war that has come to dominate the presidential race."
The Washington Post's Dana Milbank leads with Bush's vow to raze Abu Ghraib. Milbank notes that Bush "did not answer the central question of exactly who would take power in Iraq in just over a month. A U.N. envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, is expected to make such an announcement in the coming days." LINK
What the President did not do, per Robin Wright and Mike Allen: LINK
-- "provide the midcourse correction that even some Republicans had called for in the face of increasingly macabre violence in recent weeks."
-- "try to answer some of the looming questions that have triggered growing skepticism and anxiety at home and abroad about the final U.S. costs, the final length of stay for U.S. troops, or what the terms will be for a final U.S. exit from Iraq."
What the President did do: Bush "said his current plan is good enough to win, and he set out to rally Americans to his cause with rousing language that placed the conflict in Iraq in the context of the larger, more popular battle against terrorism."
Tom Shales weighs in with his review of the speech, calling it "clear enough but also dry and dispirited."LINK
"Not even the military audience gave the impression of being enraptured, and the speech was interrupted only a few times for applause."
"Besides, it's the folks at home who matter, the audience Bush really needs to impress. It's unlikely he did that last night."
Here are the key graphs from Dick Stevenson's analysis in the New York Times : LINK
"Making his task that much more complicated was the hard-fought presidential campaign, in which Mr. Bush's role as commander in chief is no longer the unalloyed strength the White House once assumed it would be."
"For Democrats, the torrent of bad news from Iraq has had the effect of denting Mr. Bush's post-Sept. 11 aura as commander in chief and simultaneously drowning out good news on the economy that might otherwise put Mr. Bush in a more commanding position."
"But some Republicans said the situation in Iraq would only focus more attention on Mr. Kerry and what they said was his unsuitability to run the war on terrorism. The political implications for Mr. Bush would be limited, said Alan K. Simpson, the former Republican senator from Wyoming, because voters did not trust Mr. Kerry to provide any better answers."
"'If it's a threat to his re-election, then the question is, What is the other guy saying?' Mr. Simpson said. 'Out in the land — and I travel all over — people are saying, 'What's Kerry going to do about it? Got any new ideas, chum?'"
It's almost as if Sen. Simpson was born to provide kicker quotes.
David Brooks writes in the New York Times that happy ending in Iraq still feels "a long way away," but nothing less than the future of freedom and democracy are at stake. LINK
"It's a huge gamble to think that the solution to chaos is liberty. But it's fitting that during the gravest crisis of his presidency, President Bush reverted to his most fundamental political belief. He began this war in Iraq repeating the sentiment embodied in the Declaration of Independence, that our creator has endowed all human beings with the right to liberty, and the ability to function as democratic citizens. He said last night with absolute confidence that the Iraqis are democrats at heart."
"Bush is betting his presidency, and the near-term future of this nation, on that central American creed."
The Wall Street Journal 's Bravin and Cooper Note that President Bush used his primetime address to "outline his vision for an independent Iraq, and called for quickly expanding the Iraqi security forces that so far have foundered in the field."
"Bush's demeanor exuded confidence, but his words expressed more humility than in past speeches. Several times he acknowledged errors or miscalculations. Estimates of the number of needed troops were too low, he said. Iraqi forces 'fell short' in their performance and have needed more training. And Saddam Hussein's loyalists, instead of being killed or captured on the battlefield, 'melted into the civilian population' to regroup later," write Maura Reynolds and Mary Curtius of the Los Angeles Times. LINK
The AP's Scott Lindlaw leads with Bush's declaration to "stay in Iraq until it was free and democratic." Lindlaw doesn't get to Bush's Abu Ghraib comments until the fourteenth paragraph. LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Tom Barnes Notes that yesterday's trip to Carlisle "was Bush's third trip to the conservative, heavily Republican "midstate" region already this year." LINK
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Philip Dine writes that the president's decision to give a speech last night "reflects the difficulty he is having maintaining the robust support his Iraq policy once enjoyed." LINK
Helen Kennedy of the New York Daily News delivers the sidebar of the day on the president's disappearing scrapes from the weekend tumble off of his bike. LINK
"But thanks to what looked like a smart copper/peach powder base, they had vanished for the evening speech."
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry: big chess pieces:Now that the FEC has signaled that it is not going to regulate the new 527s anytime soon, top Republican operatives are seeking to compete with Democratic groups by "designating a group with close ties to the Bush administration to serve as the main conduit," the Washington Post's Tom Edsall reports. LINK
"James Francis Jr., who put together the 1999 to 2000 Bush Pioneers … has been asked to chair the lead GOP organization, called Progress for America (PFA) … Officials of the organization indicated they are actively considering major purchases of television ads in roughly 18 key battleground states that praise Bush administration policies. PFA and other conservative organizations are vowing to match or exceed fundraising by liberal groups that did not wait for FEC clearance, and which have spent millions to elect" Kerry.
Kerry nomination delay?:The Boston Globe's Glen Johnson's airborne interview with Sen. Kerry yesterday landed some more details from the Senator himself on the convention-without-nomination potential — story-writing assist made by Michael Kranish.LINK
Overall: "One thing I can tell you is that on Wednesday night, the [candidate for] vice president of the United States will be nominated and give a speech, and on Thursday night I will give my speech."
Please Note an argument on the other side — on the $75 million: "Kerry indicated he may not end up cash-poor even if he sticks with the scheduled nomination date in July. 'Who said I have to spend it?' Kerry asked, referring to his $75 million allocation. 'There's all kinds of variations. All I'm saying to you is we're looking at it. I have no specific comment about it at all.'"
On the Bush-Cheney '04 rebuttal that the Democratic Convention shouldn't receive network coverage: "'Once again, the Republicans don't know history, and they don't know facts,' he said. 'The truth is that it used to be that the convention, after nomination, traveled to the home or the state of the nominee to inform them they've been nominated. Woodrow Wilson was at his house in Princeton, N.J.; Harry Truman was in Independence,' Mo., he said. 'They're trying to make an issue out of something that they're surprised by, because . . . they're very upset someone might have a way of neutralizing their advantage.'"
Kranish and Johnson use Marty Meehan to question whether the $15 million in allocated convention money would be illegal if Kerry doesn't accept the nomination there.
Roger Simon lists the ways Sen. Kerry's not accepting the nomination at the convention is "too dumb even for politics," and therefore, won't happen. LINK
The New York Times takes a look at the Boston angle on the convention-with-no-nomination story and finds those who are outraged and those who are not so outraged. LINK
"This is, after all, a city where Red Sox fans are still waiting for a world championship after 86 years, where commuters are wondering why, after more than a decade, the mammoth Big Dig construction project is not finished, and where temperatures are still struggling to get out of the 50's in late May."
Glen Johnson and Rick Klein of the Boston Globe report that Sen. Kerry has asked his own staffers to see if the Secret Service can tone down the road closure plans that have created quite the controversy in the presidential candidate's home town. LINK
More from Johnson's interview with Kerry:
"I am personally getting my campaign involved in making certain that Boston is open for business and that there is a minimal amount [of disruption], consistent with security. Smart people are working on this; I'm confident we'll be able to get somewhere."
When asked about Mayor Menino's asking locals to take vacation that week to avoid congestion: "I do not think that that's necessary at all … I want the city of Boston to be shown as a working city, as a city that's underway. And that's exactly the way I intend to try to approach it."
Brian McGrory tells Sen. Kerry to "knock it off. Nobody's going to think that long and hard about it. The only thing they're going to be thinking about is this politician who's always trying to play every side of every issue, always looking for a way out. He'd be the kind of lawyer always trying to get his clients off on a technicality — that's what they'll be saying." LINK
Richard Cohen wonders why he has to trek to Boston and grumbles that "the campaign finance laws are now driving almost the entire political process." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:Mid-morning, the Bush campaign will unveil its new ad on John Kerry and the war against terror. The ad will not extol John Kerry's virtues.
President Bush heads to battleground Ohio today for a conversation on health care and community health centers in Youngstown.
Youngstown in situated in Mahoning County, where, in 2000, former Vice President Al Gore won by nearly 29,000 votes.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Stephen Koff and Mark Naymik write, "Technically, the 2 p.m. session at Youngstown State University is not considered a political event and is being handled by the White House, not the Bush re- election team. But with the election less than six months away — and with Ohio in play — very little about a presidential visit lacks political overtones." LINK
The Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings reports in a must-read that the Bush camp has had "marked success" in creating a battalion of young fund-raisers, known as the Mavericks, "that should give Republicans a financial edge for at least another election cycle — while laying the groundwork for the party's future."
The New York Times' Paul Krugman suggests "Mr. Bush's supporters have no right to complain about the public's failure to appreciate his economic leadership. Three years of lousy performance, followed by two months of good but not great job growth, is not a record to be proud of." LINK
Lloyd Grove reports that lawyers for the W Hotel chain are sending a letter to the Bush campaign because the hotel is unhappy with the "W" logo that the campaign uses on some paraphernalia. LINK
Washington Post correction: "In some May 21 editions, a photo caption misstated President Bush's April fundraising total. The Bush campaign raised $15.6 million, not $15.6 billion." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Sen. John Kerry:USA Today's Jill Lawrence curtain raises Kerry's coming 11-day focus on national security. On Thursday, Kerry begins with an introductory speech in Seattle. LINK
"Kerry will offer details in a later speech on how he would handle Iraq. Other events will focus on military needs, homeland security and restoring U.S. leadership in the world." Timed to coincide with Memorial Day, Kerry spokeswoman Allison Dobson said Kerry's "exclusive focus" on national security will include speeches, town-hall meetings and discussions with military families, veterans, and fire and police personnel.
In anticipation of Sen. Kerry's Northwest swing, the Seattle Times' David Postman writes, "Kerry's campaign has been criticized by insiders and political observers for lacking a cohesive and consistent message. Now, as Bush tries to reshape the debate on the Iraq war with a series of speeches, Kerry will undertake the most disciplined weeks of his campaign, with formal speeches and town-hall meetings on the theme 'Security and Strength for a New World.'" LINK
Incidentally, Multnomah County in Oregon gave Al Gore 104,764 more votes than George W. Bush in 2000. Ralph Nader took 21,000.
After spending most of his column chastising Speaker Hastert for his taking on Sen. McCain last week, Alan Murray slams on the breaks to a Kerry-McCain unity ticket until Kerry gets somewhat more specific.
"The notion that Mr. McCain could find a comfortable home among the Democrats, however, is ludicrous. I'm all for a unity government that attempts to bridge the nasty chasm now dividing Washington. But before doing that, Senator Kerry has to let us know where he stands. Saying that either the hawkish Senator McCain or the dovish Senator Carl Levin of Michigan would make an excellent Secretary of Defense doesn't help on that score. Nor does expressing concern about the U.S.'s budget problems while sticking to an $86 billion-a-year health-care plan. Before teaming up with someone who may or may not share his views, Senator Kerry needs to do a better job letting us know what those views are."
Keying off of a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll done Friday through Sunday, USA Today's Mark Memmott reports — with Adam Clymer concurring — that Kerry's $25 million worth of biographical ads appear to have helped him pull into a tie with Bush in 17 states considered key to the race. LINK
The AP writes up Kerry's paper statement that Bush must turn "words into action" and reach out to skeptical allies for help in Iraq. LINK
The AP Notes, "Kerry has said on the campaign trail that Bush has damaged relations with allies to the point that only a new president can repair them."
"While scoring a few rhetorical points by demagoguing the price of gasoline, John Kerry, the Democrats' presumptive presidential nominee, has offered no serious policy proposals to resolve current energy problems," the Washington Times opines. LINK
It's the Los Angeles Times' Rainey's turn to do the Marvin Nicholson profile, writing up the guy who just may be the most profiled body man in the history of presidential politics apart from, perhaps, Mike O'Mary. LINK
Veepstakes:
Boston Globe columnist Thomas Oliphant gives us a "potent reminder of what a value-added political force [John] Edwards represents. What made the guy such an astonishing force in the primaries translates directly to the general election — an uncanny ability to reach not only Democratic audiences, but independent and even Republican voters as well." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:And I approved what??? Mark McKinnon, Bob Shrum, and even Jim Margolis are all going to laugh and laugh and laugh when they read Jim Rutenberg's truth squadding New York Times story on this cycle's campaign ads. Apparently each side has taken some liberties to paint its opponent in the worst possible light. Brooks Jackson asserts the importance of truth squadding (and here, here!! to that) while placing it in its proper context. LINK
"In the end, Mr. Jackson of Factcheck.org said, all that can be done is to continue to vet commercials for accuracy and try to set the record straight as publicly as possible. That, he said, is an occasionally thankless task:"
"'I've had consultants tell me, 'Your ad watch runs once, my ad runs many times; who's going to win?'"
E.J. "Stand Up and Fight Back" Dionne re-fights Florida 2000 with familiar calls for DREs with paper trails, cautious, accurate felon purges, and clearly designed ballots. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:
USA Today's Kiely and Page group the 17 states being targeted by Bush and Kerry into four categories: old economy, cactus corridor, coastal environs and Florida. LINK
The old economy states of Arkansas, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin are all about jobs. Bush is hurt by the loss of manufacturing jobs on his watch; Kerry is hurt by his support of free-trade deals and environmentalism. If an improving jobs picture leads these voters to look past the economy, Bush will be helped by his stands on gun control, abortion and same-sex marriage.
The cactus corridor — Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico — these are the states where the Hispanic vote is going to provide the margin of victory, according to New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
The coastal environs — Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Washington. These states are "home to ideologically quirky voters who prize independence more than party loyalty." Iraq is not popular, the environment is. In 2000, Nader did substantially better in these states than he did nationwide.
Florida is "a world of its own." Nearly a half-million new voters have registered since 2000. Dem pollster David Beattie predicts: "Whoever wins Tampa is going to be president of the United States."
The AP looks at swing state voters feeling "voter fatigue," suggesting that the net effect will be to suppress turnout, but getting the campaigns to vow that they will continue to match each other. LINK
The Detroit Free-Press lead headline blares: "Holiday travelers face record-high gas price: Some folks will just stay home for Memorial Day." The statewide average in Michigan of self-serve regular gas has "climbed to a record $2.099." LINK
Tom Beaumont reports in the Des Moines Register that when Des Moines lawyer and Republican Stan Thompson announced his candidacy against incumbent U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell Monday — he said, "a key to his strategy in challenging [Boswell] for a second time will be attacking the Des Moines Democrat's vote against a bill last year to finance the reconstruction in Iraq." LINK
A leading Democratic Senate candidate in Florida, Betty Castor, is among those Florida Dems reaching out to disaffected veterans, hoping that the administration's policy on veterans affairs has alienated enough of them. LINK
Gosh darn those gas prices are high in Florida. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Ralph Nader:Ralph Nader called for President Bush's impeachment at the Council on Foreign relations yesterday. LINK
"'To say that President Bush has exaggerated the threat of Al Qaeda is to trip into a political hornets' nest,' he said. But he said it was time to raise 'the impertinent question' about whether the threat had been 'exaggerated for a purpose.'"
"Mr. Nader said he believed such a deception had taken place, and had been intended in part to draw popular support for more militaristic policies and to generate military contracts for companies with close ties to the Bush administration."
ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting:Shades of Florida 2000, as some First Amendment advocates want all the names of felons about to be purged and the Secretary of State's office says it's not able to do that. LINK
A federal judge dismissed Rep. Robert Wexler's suit against paperless DRE voting yesterday, citing the ongoing state lawsuit. LINK
That state case will soon be heard by an appellate court.
The conventions:A social welfare organization or a charity? New York attorney general Eliot Spitzer's office is determined to properly classify (which could lead to some uncomfortable disclosure requirements) an organization aimed at throwing a big band party at the Rainbow Room in honor of Rep. Oxley during the Republican National Convention. LINK
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET): —9:15 am: Sen. John Kerry attends the launch of his new campaign plane at a "Take Off to a Stronger America" event at Reagan National Airport, Washington, D.C.—9:30 am: President Bush meets with Iraqis receiving medical care in the United States at the White House—9:30 am: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge makes introductory remarks before the Council for Excellence in Government as it releases its recommendations for homeland security with a panel discussion at the Reagan Trade Center, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund holds a briefing to unveil its 2004 Latino Voter Projections for the upcoming presidential election at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: The National Association of Realtors releases the April report on existing home sales, Washington, D.C.—10:30 am: The Center for American Progress, OMB Watch, and the Coalition of Citizens for Sensible Safeguards hold a press conference to release a report exploring the "Bush administration's dismantling of public safeguards" at the Wilderness Society, Washington, D.C.—11:00 am: Secretary of State Colin Powell meets with the vice prime minister and minister of foreign affairs of Belgium, Washington, D.C.—12:00 pm: The Cato Institute hosts a discussion on "Bush and Kerry: Comparing Their Economic Platforms", Washington, D.C.—12:00 pm: Majority Leader Bill Frist holds a joint press availability with Senatorial candidate Bill Jones, San Diego, Calif.—1:00 pm: Ralph Nader speaks about local and state issues, Hartford, Conn.—1:30 pm: President Bush participates in a conversation on health care and community health centers, Youngstown, Ohio.—4:25 pm: President Bush returns to the White House—4:30 pm: Sen. John Kerry holds a conversation about energy independence and lowering the price of gasoline at the Parkrose School District, Portland, Ore.—5:00 pm: Ralph Nader meets with volunteers, Hartford, Conn.—5:30 pm: Capt. Scott O'Grady (U.S. Air Force, Ret.) holds an online chat at www.georgewbush.com—6:00 pm: U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick delivers the keynote address on trade issues at the Electronic Industries Alliance 2004 Government-Industry Dinner, Washington, D.C.—7:15 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell addresses the U.S. Institute of Peace reception, Washington, D.C.—9:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a fundraiser reception at the Benson Hotel, Portland, Ore.