The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, May 10, 2004—
-- NOTED NOW

TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

President Bush tries to roll the boulder up the hill to squash the Neverending (prison abuse) Story, with a trip to the Pentagon today that you can see live on ABC News at 11:30 am ET.

He also has to deal with the overall situation in Iraq; the near-total absence of a second-term agenda (beyond "I'll keep you safer"); the appearance, CW, and reality of sagging poll numbers, including wrong track; gas prices, college tuition hikes, and health care costs; and an energized Democratic base.

John Kerry, on the other hand, has to deal with the appearance, CW, and reality of no message; a lack of broad-based love (even among much of his staff!); (apparently) he's a Massachusetts liberal; a tough electoral college map; a split Democratic base on Iraq; and a ferocious male gender gap.

And they both have to deal with a carping, unhappy press corps in full-blown "damned if they do, damned if they don't" mode.

Showing iron discipline, we will resist for yet another day making any grand Abu Ghraib abuse judgments about whatitallmeans politically, except to Note again that it is going to take an awfully big story to knock this out of the lead anytime soon. (And yes, we fully appreciate that only in a free country likes ours can a story like this dominate the headlines.)

No one — not even big feet Washington pundits — knows where this is headed as an electoral issue.

And our reluctance to try to lap the field was fed by this bit of Fox News Sunday brilliance from Fred Barnes about last week's "word" that the president had turned the Oval into a woodshed during his time with Secretary Rumsfeld:

BARNES: … I've done some reporting on that. The president didn't authorize that leak. Karl Rove didn't authorize that leak. The press office, thinking they were showing the president had acted firmly, went ahead and told reporters about the mild rebuke.

That must have made Elisabeth Bumiller AND Dana Milbank AND Scott McClellan just laugh and laugh and laugh when they heard it!!!

These are trying times for the man in the cynosure. A Kerry memo sent to reporters last night calls it "free fall" and points to right-track/wrong track numbers, a handful of approval numbers, and lists myriad reasons why the commander in chief is, in the opposition's view, not in a commanding position.

And yet the incumbent President's electoral position remains, to borrow his favorite word, steady.

So here is our best map of what some are calling the Bush Bubble — that arguable gap between the president's re-elect numbers and his general approval rating on various issues.

Or, put another way, what accounts for the relative buoyancy of a man beset by (mostly) bad news?

Or, yet another way: why isn't he doing worse?

1. He's keeping the conservative and Republican base happy — and we're making the necessary distinction between the roots of the grass and its tippy-tops. The President's support among the faithful remains quite strong.

2. A gradual, inarticulatable, unpollable sentiment among most Americans that enjoys the feeling of being at the top of the heap, disregards potshots, favors the exercise of unilateral power, distrusts entangling institutions, and isn't quite sure what the alternatives are. American exceptionalism is still a fundamental creed — and this President embodies it.

3. The failure of President Bush's opposition to come up with a credible alternative to Iraq. By credible, we mean widely accepted and comfortable to the masses. This tracks with a general and enduring split among Democrats and left/liberal progressives about the nature and aims of American power.

4. Wars (in Iraq and versus terror) provide for now a floor and a ceiling on the president's numbers. And no domestic terror attack since 9/11 is arguably the administration's largest unalloyed, if untrumpeted, success.

5. An unvetted (bubble-benefited) Democratic nominee who has yet to find a voice that comforts while it enervates. And who may, by dint of the possible death of the jobless recovery (see the WSJ's ed page) have lost his best issue. Let's see how the national and local breakthrough on his health care message goes this week…

6. Masterful message massaging and communications work by the Bush-Cheney re-election team.

7. A country that views political develop.m.ents through two increasingly sharp cultural lenses — perhaps (checking the back of the envelope here … ) 42% Red to 39% Blue.

8. News cycles that speed up, chew over, and swallow both the good and the bad and then take a bite of something else — leaving little time for reflection or news to "sink" in to the national consciousness. And then there's the general disconnect between what the media wants (i.e., a Bush apology during the press conference) versus what the public seems to want (reassurance that things are going to get better and the course we're taking is the right one).

9. The First Lady, the personal likeability, and the Bush Brand in times of adversity.

Now, bubbles can burst, but no one can know for sure when they will or what causes that to happen. And sometimes things that LOOK like bubbles are in fact made of cast iron.

For your must-reading this morning, start here:

The Washington Post's Milbank and Weisman pick up a theme it writes about with verve second only to the Washington Times: conservative disenchantment with the White House.

The movement is not about to sunder, but its intellectuals are "restless" at the perceived torpidity of the White House — particularly, its domestic policy shop. The article's body provides evidence that young and less experiences hands have replaced able, more experienced hands at many top level policy formation positions. LINK

No real damning quotes, and no terribly obvious anonymous broadsides. We are still trying to determine the amusement/intellectual value of this paragraph:

"A Bush spokesman quarreled with that notion, saying there has been no let-up in Bush's policymaking. 'We are marching ahead,' said the spokesman, Trent Duffy, pointing to Bush's plans for community-college-based job training, space exploration and modernizing health records. 'He's continuing to push the policies that have made the country better and stronger.'"

Bill Sammon's book roll-out in the Washington Times, including material from Bush, Rove and Card. Today's article says that the president referred to his father's posture on Iraq in 1991 as "cut and run" and vowed not to do it again. See the BC04 Section for more. LINK

USA Today's Peter Johnson predicts that the media will focus on Bush's "misses" and therefore "set off renewed animosity between an administration known for secrecy and the media that have chafed under it." LINK

Chimes in ABC News' George Stephanopoulos: "It's going to be a long, hot summer."

And a long, hot day in Washington: temperatures might reach 90 degrees. We feel for the Virginia state troopers who have to sweat on the shut-down highways while Bush crosses the Potomac.

According to Scott McClellan at the gaggle this morning, the president will also do an interview today with Armed Forces Radio and Television.

Also today, President Bush participates in a morning ceremony celebrating countries selected for the Millennium Challenge Account and meets with the New England Patriots at the White House this afternoon.

He travels to Arkansas to speak about the No Child Left Behind act tomorrow.

On Wednesday he holds a conversation about No Child Left Behind in Bethesda and hosts the Angolan President.

On Thursday he participates in a conversation on high school initiatives in Parkersburg, W.Va. and speaks to the American Conservative Union.

On Friday he speaks at an RNC fundraiser in Missouri before delivering the commencement address at Concordia University in Mequon, Wis.

Amidst the near full eclipse of the prison story, Sen. Kerry will try to do health care all week. A simple challenge (that Karen Hughes won't like) to Sen. Kerry: can you explain your health care plan in soundbite fashion at least as well as Ms. Bianchi can?

Kerry today delivers a speech on his plan to reduce health care costs for all Americans in Edinboro, Pa., and then heads on to RON in Kentucky tonight.

Tomorrow, Kerry tours a family health center, holds a conversation on health care and raises money in Louisville, Ky., before flying to Jacksonville to hold a rally.

On Wednesday he holds a health care town hall meeting in Orlando and raises money in Little Rock.

On Thursday Kerry campaigns in Arkansas before returning to Washington, D.C.

He begins Friday in D.C. before flying to Boston, where he will remain at least through Saturday.

The Senate is expected to vote today on a resolution regarding the abuse of Iraqi prisoners. Tomorrow the Senate Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on the Iraqi prison abuse scandal with Stephan A. Cambone, the Pentagon's top intelligence official, and Central Command officers who oversee the conflict in Iraq.

Gen. Clark and Sen. Max Cleland defend John Kerry's military record in Birmingham today. Tomorrow Sen. Bob Dole unveils the Bush-Cheney '04 National Veterans Coalition in Tampa.

Vice President Cheney speaks at a New Hampshire tool company today before raising money in Maine. Lynne Cheney delivers the keynote address at the Lincoln Day Dinner in Arkansas.

Karl Rove speaks at the Illinois Republican State Convention in Collinsville on Saturday.

Sen. John Edwards campaigns with Ken Salazar in Denver today and for Barack Obama in Bloomington, Ill., tomorrow. Rep. Richard Gephardt delivers the keynote address at the Michigan Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner Saturday night. And he hosts a DNC conference call criticizing President Bush's health care policies today.

"The Best Secretary of Defense":Speculate all you wish about the Thursday "leak," the Saturday New York Times with Dr. Rice's alleged associate alleging she would allegedly be "not" sorry to see Rummy go, the Sunday Rice on-the-record walk-back, and the Bush and Cheney attaboys.

Bottom line: with no Republicans calling for the Secretary to go based on the current facts, his fate is now "caught" in typical Bush Administration "scandal" dynamics — totally partisan, totally stalemated.

Remember: live coverage of the president at the Pentagon today, 11:30 am ET on ABC News, ABCNews.com, and ABC Radio.

The New York Daily News gives play to the blind quote in Time Magazine. LINK

"A senior official in the Republican administration told Time magazine the secretary may have been saved because 'they [Democrats] fortunately overplayed their hands.'"

Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Ne.) disagrees:

"I think it's still in question whether Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and, quite frankly, General [Richard B.] Myers can command the respect and the trust and the confidence of the military and the American people to lead this country." LINK

In her trademark style, the New York Times ' Elisabeth Bumiller cracks open the psychology behind the Bush (41 & 43)/Rumsfeld dynamic. LINK

After revisiting the Halloween Massacre of 1975 Bumiller encapsulates the current President's relationship with his Pentagon chief thusly: "professionally close but hardly cozy."

Secretary Rumsfeld gets William Safire's vote of confidence on the op-ed page of the New York Times . LINK

Hagel's Face comments were just strident enough to get a hyperbolic subhead from the Los Angeles Times . LINK

Iraq war and the alleged abuse at Abu Ghraib:The best from Thomas Ricks' weekend blockbuster about the overall war effort:

On the record: Army Maj. Gen. Charles H. Swannack Jr thinks America is losing "strategically." … "Army Col. Paul Hughes, who last year was the first director of strategic planning for the U.S. occupation authority in Baghdad, said he agrees with that view." … Abizaid stops short of saying the U.S. is winning strategically … … "

"A senior general at the Pentagon said he believes the United States is already on the road to defeat. 'The American people may not stand for it — and they should not.'" Wolfowitz: winning "will take time." … . "Abizaid cited the resumption of economic reconstruction and the political progress made with Sunni Muslims in resolving the standoff around Fallujah, and increasing cooperation from Shiite Muslims in isolating radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr. 'I'm looking at the situation, and I told the secretary of defense the other day I feel pretty comfortable with where we are,' he said." LINK

The Los Angeles Times wonders if this is how a State Department official sounds, what exactly can be expected from the diplomatic sectors from coalition members. LINK

"Struggling with diplomatic fallout from the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal and a growing perception that U.S. foreign policy is out of control, some State Department officials this week sounded a note of despair. 'I expect doom and gloom,' one official said."

"'By next week, every national assembly [of every nation] that has forces in Iraq is going to demand an accounting of what their forces were doing, and specifically, of what they were doing with the prisons. And some governments are going to say: 'This is more trouble than it is worth.' Soon the coalition of the willing will become the coalition of the desperate and nowhere to go.'"

The Wall Street Journal 's Gerald Seib wonders whether something has happened to "the American soul" in its war on terrorism, writing that when Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld testified last week, "the nation's capital, and along with it the country, seemed to stop to ask how a campaign that began with such moral clarity had evolved into a picture of an American soldier pulling a naked Iraqi prisoner on a leash."

The Energy Department is making plans for an elite federal security force that will replace the private firms currently guarding nuclear-weapons materials, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times writes the prison abuse scandal "could not have emerged at a worse time" for President Bush. Dr. Brownstein then proceeds to dissect what he sees as the four key political challenges facing President Bush as a result of the controversy. From least to most challenging they are: alienating Congress, avoiding accountability, failing to act, and losing Iraq. LINK

The New York Times ' Sheryl Gay Stolberg seems to be under the impression that the spotlight had left Sen. McCain and is now returning to shine on him due in part to his insta-credibility on the issue of prison abuse. There's also this: "he never fails to offer a Republican critique of President Bush, with whom he has not quite patched up relations after their bitter primary campaign in 2000." LINK

Michael Barone has a must-read about cleavages in opinion over Abu Ghraib: "Almost all Americans are as disgusted as Bush himself — not Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity or their minions … merely frat pranksterism to them." LINK

He goes on:

"One of the basic divides in public opinion is over American exceptionalism, the idea shared by Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, John Kennedy and George W. Bush, that ours is a special, and especially good, nation."

"I think we are seeing, or will see, this same pattern of response to Abu Ghraib. Most Americans, and including a large majority of Republicans and about half of Democrats, will see this as aberrant misconduct, a betrayal of the high standards we hold ourselves to and usually uphold. Other Democrats, unbelievers in American exceptionalism, will seize on Abu Ghraib as evidence that this country is not special and especially good. And so, of course, will our critics and enemies around the world."

David Broder's Sunday column in the Washington Post weighs in heavily saying that the American people could well turn against the war because of the photos. LINK

Even Don Lambro (the serious version of "even Judy Keen") calls the photos a "serious setback" but urges steady nerves and onward and upward. LINK

The Weekly Standard's William Kirstol and Bob Kagan repeat their calls for a sped-up election process. LINK

Roll Call reports that Congressional Democrats are gearing up for a fight with the White House "over its appeal for a $25 billion wartime reserve fund, and will seek to triple the request as well as reallocate Iraq construction funds to help offset it."

Morning show wrap-up:The morning shows led with an Iraqi prison abuse wrap and news of President Bush heading to the Pentagon.

First Lady Laura Bush appeared exclusively on ABC News's "Good Morning America" to tout her work on behalf of America's libraries. Laura Bush said of the Iraqi prison abuse photos "to be perfectly frank, I can't bear" to see the ones that have been in the newspaper. She said she has not seen the forthcoming photos but that her husband "may know" and that he's told her "some things about them" though she wouldn't elaborate preferring instead to "see what happens."

Picking up on a similar tack to Bush's Arab TV interview, Laura Bush said the good news about Americans that "the pictures came to light" unlike in "Saddam Hussein's regime" where there were "torture chambers" that "never came to light."

While appearing on GMA, Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt commented on the possibility that there might be additional photos and video of prison abuse by saying: "I think we need to brace ourselves in terms of what we're going to see in the future." Asked about who was in control of the cell block, Kimmitt said "tactical control" belonged to military intelligence. He noted, however, that intelligence's role does not forfeit the responsibility that the commander of the military police brigade had. Kimmitt also appeared on "Today."

ABC News Vote 2004: Sen. John Kerry:Per ABC News Dan Harris:

Kerry is talking health care all week. Today in Pennsylvania he releases a report on health care costs. Look, too, for a new internet "ad" that looks at the alleged "consequences of Bush's inaction" on health care.

Health care week kicks off in Edinboro, Pa., with stories in the USA Today (they're having Web problems, so we'll ignore the link) and the AP: LINK

Glover: "In his swing, Kerry is not spelling out new policy, but releasing the study he said shows that the nation's health care crisis has grown to a proportion where it's not simply a social issue, but has become a drag on the economy. Soaring health care costs have forced businesses to cut back on workers and trim other investments, dampening the economy."

Looking ahead to this weekend's DNC Hispanic Leadership Summit in Orlando, ABC News' Tzemach reports the Kerry campaign is set to join the DNC in appealing to activists in the Hispanic community -- albeit, perhaps, without the candidate himself.

Kerry senior political adviser Paul Rivera and Hispanic Outreach Director Luis Elizondo Thompson are both expected to talk about "John Kerry and the Latino Community." Party headliners who've "yes"sed their RSVP for the Florida gathering include New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Florida Sen. Bill Nelson. Stay tuned to see who else -- including perhaps Candidate Kerry -- joins them. DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe will be on hand as well --

Glen Johnson of the Boston Globe Notes Sen. Kerry's receiving communion in church yesterday and a few other Johnson-like tid-bits and anecdotes from throughout the Senator's Sunday. LINK

Kerry attended a Mother's Day Mass in Aspiwall, Pa. yesterday. LINK

Ralph Nader believes the Democrats and Sen. Kerry are fundamentally too cautious and uses William Rasberry as a sounding board for advice about what they ought to propose. LINK

We can see how folks will agree with the premise of Howie Kurtz's column: generalized anxiety on behalf of Democrats about Kerry is too much, too soon. But specific phobias may be worth investigating. LINK

Question: what is the specific sound Stephanie Cutter makes when she "scoffs?"

Well, the election just might be over: John Zogby says Kerry will win. (And you can read into that whatever you wish … ). LINK

The AP's Denise Lavoie sums up Sen. Kerry's undercovered legal career when some veteran prosecutors originally "thought he was little more than a smooth, politically connected opportunist looking for higher office." LINK

However, Lavoie highlights two big cases, one where he successfully prosecuted a man earlier acquitted of murder for rape, and one where he did the same for an organized crime leader who ran gambling rackets in Massachusetts — thus winning some respect from the original naysayers.

According to the New York Post 's Fred Dicker, Teresa Heinz Kerry's visit with Al Sharpton's National Action Network this past weekend was meant to send Rev. Jesse Jackson a message. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:The Union Leaders' Benjamin Kepple previews Vice President Cheney's trip to New Hampshire today, where he will deliver remarks on the economy at Diamond Casting and Machine Co., a manufacturing firm in Hollis LINK

Kepple Notes that the trip signals two things: "that the White House is not taking New Hampshire for granted, and that New Hampshire's politically aware population makes it perfect for campaigns to test their ideas."

Cheney continues on to Bangor Maine this evening where he will hold a BC04 campaign rally at the Bangor International Airport.

The Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes writes a solid look at the president's trade policies, which have "swung from free-market candidate to sometime-protectionist president and back again. Lately he has re-emerged as a full-throated free-trader, to the wonder of folks on both sides of the debate."

There's more from the Washington Times ' Bill Sammon on the record interviews with Karl Rove and White House Chief of Staff Andy Card, on election strategy and Senator Kerry — and how the re-election campaign will paint its opponent as "a condescending elitist, who is pro-tax, weak on defense and on the wrong side in the culture wars." LINK

Rove tells Sammon that the campaign's strategy is "relatively straightforward."

"'You make it about big issues,' he said. 'The president is right on the war on terror; Kerry is fundamentally wrong. The president is right on what's necessary to keep the economy gaining strength and creating jobs; Kerry's wrong. The president's right on where the country is with regard to values; Kerry's fundamentally wrong.'"

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:Not to be obsequious, but when Ron Fournier tells us what we already know, we know it all the more:

"President Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry are virtually tied in their race for state electoral votes as a crush of political problems has prevented either candidate from breaking open the contest. Six months before Election Day, Bush controls or has an edge in 24 states that account for 205 electoral votes, 65 shy of the 270 needed to win the wide-open race. The Democratic challenger has the advantage in 14 states plus the District of Columbia for 205 electoral votes. In the dozen remaining states (128 electoral votes), the contest is either tied or there's no adequate polling, according to an Associated Press review of public and private surveys as well as interviews with analysts in key states.:"

Some conservatives believe pushing bans on same-sex marriage in close states will spur turnout for President Bush in November's election, reports the Washington Post 's Vanessa Williams. LINK

Although: let's see what makes it onto the ballots of these various states before we get all overheated.

"Former first lady Nancy Reagan endorsed stem cell research Saturday night and made an impassioned call for taking the controversial procedure out of the political arena, saying it could help cure illnesses such as Alzheimer's disease," reports the Washington Post . LINK

The New York Times editorial board would find it "regrettable" if the New York Archdiocese bars Sen. Kerry from the Al Smith dinner. LINK

The Los Angeles Times explores the untapped voter market of single women. LINK

"According to pollsters, when single women are compared with married men, married women and single men, they account for the largest number of Americans who are, in essence, voluntarily disenfranchised. More than 21 million single women — almost half of those eligible — did not cast ballots in the last presidential election."

Nick Anderson of the Los Angeles Times got some advertising executives to size up the current crop of Kerry and Bush campaign ads. The Madison Ave. folks do not appear all that impressed with anything they have seen thus far. But Bob Shrum will definitely/maybe like this line: "Though they say Bush's ads show more polish and daring and that Kerry's are slowly improving … " LINK

Does this Luke Sullivan figure know where Mark McKinnon lives?

Mark Jurkowitz of the Boston Globe also writes about the ads: LINK

"The fate of these dueling strategies could hinge on what proves more persuasive: Kerry's effort to sell himself to the electorate, or Bush's efforts to tarnish Kerry's image among voters."

ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry veepstakes:Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack "has taken an unusually active role in contentious negotiations between the nation's largest nurses' union and Polk County's public hospital. A hospital association leader says Vilsack went too far in helping his union friends gain a foothold at Broadlawns Medical Center. The governor's spokesman said he properly stepped in to head off a divisive fight." LINK

Lois Romano's update has Sen.Graham and his 4,000 diaries being extensively vetted, although her sourcing on that is unclear. LINK

Roll Call 's Chris Cillizza takes an in-depth look at Sen. John Edwards' ongoing audition for the role of Sen. Kerry's running mate. "More so than the other two men receiving mention, Edwards must actually audition for the Post due to his relative inexperience and the fact that he would be unlikely to help the Democratic ticket carry his home state if chosen, according to conversations with numerous party strategists and consultants about his prospects."

ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:

If the Orlando Sentinel's Web site wasn't funky, we'd link to their article about how the Central Florida economy is running on all cylinders.

The Albuquerque Tribune's Shea Andersen reports that Gov. Bill Richardson "is ready to slam President Bush" during Kerry's visit to New Mexico tomorrow. LINK

We hesitate to put this story in this section, but not too much …

The Senate Minority Leader in New Jersey is leaving the Catholic Church after being told his pro-choice views would prevent him from receiving Communion in the future, reports the New York Daily News . LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Ralph Nader:

Knight Ridder's Recio sums up Nader's struggle to get on the ballot in Texas. LINK

Other weekend must-reads:Writer/father/Rep. Rahm Emanuel in a Los Angeles Times op-ed bemoaning what he sees as a do-trivial Congress while the world burns. LINK

On Sunday, the New York Times ' Tom Friedman wrote about the Middle East, oil and modernity. You can probably guess what he said, but you should read it anyway because it's written much better than the version inside your head. LINK

On Sunday, the New York Times 's Stephanie Strom had a superbly written profile of Mrs. Heinz Kerry's leadership of the Heinz Endowments. LINK

Who knew that Mrs. H K is close close friends with Mrs. Richard M-S!!!!!!

The New York Times ' Robin Toner offered a quick refresher course on Sunday for those of you who have forgotten how one may find oneself Dukakisized. LINK

Also on Sunday, the New York Times ' Rick Lyman wrote about the debate among Democrats over whether being in Boston will turn out to be a really, really good idea or a really, really, really bad one. LINK

Dennis Kucinich:The Boston Globe 's Mooney reports on Rep. Dennis Kucinich's fight to be heard, his focus on the May 18 primary in Oregon, and his desire to present his agenda at July's Democratic Convention. "His campaign announced that it will officially open a Boston convention headquarters today on Temple Place." LINK

The politics of stem cell research:The AP reports that Hollywood support for the controversial human embryonic stem cell research is growing during this election year. At a Saturday night gala in Beverly Hills for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, the likes of Michael J. Fox, Dustin Hoffman, and Larry King raised $2 million and former First Lady Nancy Reagan delivered a rare speech. LINK

The AP: "A growing number of federal lawmakers including several staunch anti-abortion Republicans and party stalwarts like Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who is also a heart surgeon also are lobbying Bush to reconsider his policy."

Reuters highlights Nancy Reagan's speech where she "noted that Alzheimer's had taken her husband, Ronald Reagan, 'to a distant place where I can no longer reach him and share our 52 years.'" LINK

Politics: USA Today 's Rubin reports that members of FDA advisery committees have contemplated resigning over what they call a political decision to recommend emergency contraception be available without a prescription. LINK

The AP's Mary Dalrymple on the corporate tax bill: a "$170 billion cornucopia of breaks for a variety of groups ranging from farmers and railroads to the cruise ship industry, former Oldsmobile dealers, NASCAR and makers of bows and arrows." LINK

Will Howard Stern fans be as outraged about "Masterpiece Theater" as they are about the shock jock's radio show? LINK

California's Inland Empire may soon take over Orange County as the GOP stronghold in the Golden State. LINK

We wonder if Karl Rove alerted the Los Angeles Times to its error himself or if that assignment was staffed out. LINK

Republican National Convention:Ed Koch and protest organizer David Lynn do a little point/counterpoint in the New York Daily News today on how New Yorkers should treat visiting Republicans this summer. LINK and LINK

The New York Post looks at the tense negotiations between CNN (and Fox News Channel a little less so) with the IBEW about who gets to pull cable at the Garden. LINK

New York Magazine devotes its cover to the protests planned for the Republican National Convention first from the point of view of a new generation of protestors LINK and then from the perspective of the New York Police Department's preparation for them. LINK

The economy:"The Securities and Exchange Commission has come under intense pressure from business and some members of the Bush administration to water down proposed rule changes in the way corporate boards are elected, mutual funds are governed and hedge funds are regulated," reports Stephen Labaton of the New York Times . LINK

"With all the attention on Iraq, the blowout April jobs report barely made the front pages on the weekend. So allow us to mark the news as the official death of the 'jobless recovery,'" writes the Wall Street Journal editorial board.

The land of five-plus-two-equals-seven:Score one for Suzy Ballantyne and the folks at Voices for Working Families. With the help of the Moveon.org folks, they've assembled a golden cast of fundraisers set to gather Tuesday night at the Apollo theater to raise cash for the 527. Expected on hand are a Page Six-worthy crew, including Pres. Bill Clinton, Rosie Perez, Gov. Bill Richardson, some Sopranos folks, and Howard Dean favorite Wycliffe Jean.

Media:Which of these are lines from a recent Roger Simon column?

A. "I can't believe it: The waiter in the Jackrabbit Slim's scene in 'Pulp Fiction' is Steve Buscemi."

B."What is the proper etiquette when someone next to you on a plane begins to snore?"

C. both

D. neither

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):

—7:00 am: First Lady Laura Bush appears live on ABC's "Good Morning America."—9:00 am: First Lady Laura Bush announces the 2004 Laura Bush Foundation for America's Libraries grantees, Corona, N.Y. —9:00 am: Off-camera gaggle by White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan.—9:30 am: The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals meets to hear arguments.—9:45 am: President Bush participates in a ceremony celebrating countries selected for the Millennium Challenge Account, Washington, D.C.—10:25 am: President Bush receives a military briefing at the Pentagon, Arlington, Va.—11:00 am: Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) holds a conference call on President Bush's "ties to the medical and pharmaceutical special interests."—11:30 am: President Bush makes a statement from the Pentagon, Arlington, Va. Live on ABC News.—12:00 pm: The House of Representatives meets for a pro-forma session.—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL.—1:15 pm: President Bush makes remarks to the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots at the White House.—1:45 pm: On-camera press briefing by Press Secretary McClellan.—2:00 pm: The Senate convenes for morning business.—2:00 pm: Sen. John Kerry speaks about reducing the cost of health care, Edinboro, Pa.—2:00 pm: RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie holds a conference call with reporters accusing Democrats of politicizing Irai prisoner abuse, Washington, D.C.—2:30 pm: First Lady Laura Bush and New York City Michael Bloomberg unveil the first Relief Medallion that will be placed in the "Gardens of Remembrance," a tribute garden to September 11th victims, New York, N.Y.—2:55 pm: Vice President Cheney speaks at the Diamond Casting and Machine Tool Company, Hollis, N.H.—3:30 pm: Secretary of State Collin Powell meets with the chief of staff of the Armed Forces for the United Arab Emirates, Washington, D.C.—4:00 pm: The Energy Department releases its weekly gasoline prices report.—4:30 pm: Retired General Wesley Clark and former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland hold a press conference to talk about John Kerry's military record, Birmingham, Ala.—5:30 pm: The Senate votes on a resolution regarding the abuse of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. personnel at the Abu Ghraib prison.—5:30 pm: Vice President Cheney speaks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 rally, Bangor, Maine.—8:00 pm: General Clark and Sen. Cleland speak at the Alabama Democratic Party's "A Salute to Service" annual spring dinner, Birmingham, Ala.