The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, April 13—
, 2004 -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
NEWS SUMMARY
About 12 hours after the words you are now reading were written, almost everything below this sentence will be overtaken by events — or, more specifically, by AN event: the presidential news conference that occurs at 8:30 pm ET in the East Room of the White House.
You all know the deal: this is just the third prime time news conference that this President Bush has had, in part because of his disdain for the ways of the Washington press corps (as contrasted, paradoxically, with his abiding affection for most of the human being reporters who cover him).
Your day time, of course, will be filled with wall-to-wall cable coverage of the 9/11 commission's delving into the FBI and CIA angles, with witnesses Freeh, Reno, Ashcroft, and Pickard.
But it is the press conference that will almost certainly shape the cycle, and here's what you can count on:
1. The President's opening statement will be filled with muscular, patriotic rhetoric with a "stay the course" theme.
2. The President's performance will be really good or really weak. Or, perhaps, it will SEEM really good if you already like him, and SEEM really weak if you don't. Watch the blogs for insta-reaction.
3. Reporters will struggle to phrase things just right to come off as both tough and respectful; the President will struggle to control the daggers of irritation flying from his eyes, and will fail at least once. (The words "Can I finish?" or "Let me finish!"will be uttered.)
4. Except for print reporters on deadline and cable talking heads, we'll all be done in time to watch Mariners versus Angels on ESPN at 10:00 pm ET, Mr. President.
A senior White House official tells ABC News' Kate Snow: "The decision for a press conference was to give the American people an update on the war. Last week was tough, and military operations have now been underway for several days, so he thought it was the right time to provide context as well as explain the way forward. We know 9-11 will come up, but we believe the American people are far more interested in what's happening in Iraq."
Setting the table for all this with deft balance is the New York Times' Adam Nagourney, who says that Republicans want their candidate — running by definition an "incumbent strategy" — to be out there addressing their nail-biting concerns (And, yes, they are as bothered by the Newsweek poll as some Democrats were by the polls from two weeks ago "showing" Kerry faltering.). LINK
Besides watching to see if John Ashcroft's presidential ambitions end today or not (That's a joke for you, The Davids.), here's what else you need to read during the breaks in testimony — unless you like the sound of Bob Franken's voice:
a. John Kerry's Washington Post op-ed laying out his Iraq policy — proving that if the presidential election were a bluebook essay contest, Senator Kerry would be favored. LINK
b. Walter Pincus' Washington Post blockbuster, saying the 9/11 commission is trying again to talk to the analyst (a "she") who wrote the world's most famous PBD and that the analyst and the president thought of the same project independently of each other (We see Julia Roberts as the analyst in the movie … .). LINK
c. The New York Times' Jim Rutenberg and David D. Kirkpatrick write a gussied up New York Observer story that is a total must-read on the timing of the release of Bill Clinton's book, which still isn't done but which he has started to read to people over the phone (instead of spending the time finishing it!). The Note is still betting it isn't published this year. LINK
d. Edmund Andrews writing gracefully and fairly in the New York Times about the Social Security, Medicare, and pension battles that may or may not talk place in this presidential election year. LINK
e. Alan Murray's secretly snagged interview with John Kerry (buried in an over-the-top homage to the most homaged person in politics — Bob Rubin), in which Kerry says Clintonomics didn't invest enough in infrastructure and should have popped the speculative bubble sooner. (Wonder what Kerry thinks of a possible housing bubble … . )
Elsewhere today, Sen. Kerry campaigns at the University of Rhode Island and attends a fundraising luncheon in Providence, R.I., then attends a fundraising dinner in Boston, Mass.
And the Colorado Democratic caucuses take place.
ABC News Vote 2004: The President faces the nation:
May we graciously suggest you watch our live coverage on ABC at 8:30 pm ET. Or tune in to your ABC News radio station for full coverage. Or keep your browser on ABC News.com and Noted Now.
The Washington Post's studious firm of Milbank and Allen Note bluntly that tonight's news conference "will give Bush a forum to address concerns that have caused a dip in his election-year popularity." LINK
The calling for a prime time press conference (number three) on the heels of a "tough week" in Iraq, endless questions about the months and weeks leading up to 9/11, and that Newsweek poll caused some "Republicans close to the White House" to chat with the New York Times' Adam Nagourney and express some concerns that the re-election campaign may not be going exactly according to plan. And there's a major league big time quote to boot. LINK
"All this takes place at what Republicans call a time of frustration for Mr. Bush and his advisers. In the same month that his general-election campaign began, the very issues that Mr. Bush viewed as the foundation of his appeal — his handling of foreign affairs and the nation's security — are being challenged."
The AP reports that President Bush will attempt to defuse the issues of "rising casualties in Iraq and his response in 2001 to a terrorism warning the White House had in hand before the Sept. 11 attacks." LINK
Brian Blomquist of the New York Post reports FOX's decision to move American Idol to Thursday to make way for the president. LINK
Bravo will not budge from "Queer Eye," however.
Blomquist also follows up on ABC News' Jonathan Karl's reporting. "A White House official said Bush would make an announcement tonight, possibly the nomination of current U.N. Ambassador John Negroponte to be the U.S. ambassador to Iraq."
The politics of Iraq and national security:
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Meg Jones looks at the Wisconsin National Guard Military Police unit whose duty in Iraq has been extended 120 days. LINK
The New York Post's Vince Morris writes, "President Bush yesterday opened the door to a historic overhaul of U.S. intelligence-gathering … " LINK
Gen. Abizaid requests more troops, acknowledging Monday "what many critics had been saying for months: The American-led force needs more troops," reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK
"U.S. officials had hoped to draw the occupation force down to 110,000 this spring as the coalition prepares to transfer authority to a still-unnamed interim Iraqi government on June 30. Instead, the Pentagon is planning to have as many as 140,000 American troops in Iraq if the new units arrive soon or 120,000 if the soldiers now pulling extended duty are allowed to leave within several months, defense officials said. Yet those numbers could change drastically, Pentagon officials said privately. Either the Joint Chiefs or Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld could substantially alter Abizaid's request. 'You could see that number halve — or even double,' one official said."
That last sentence is one that will keep some folks in the White House up at night.
"Halliburton Co. has suspended some convoys delivering supplies to the military in Iraq due to escalating violence, U.S. Army and company officials said Monday, raising the danger of shortfalls in food, fuel and water supplies if the situation continues," reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK
Three Iraq-related op-eds in the Post :
Dionne: POTUS sticks to strategy of denial: LINK
Ignatius: "American policy is stumbling" in Iraq: LINK
Cohen: But Iraq ain't Vietnam, but for one similarity: "we don't know what the hell we're doing.": LINK
Jack Welch gives his take on when it is necessary for leaders to change deadlines in today's Wall Street Journal.
"Good leaders change deadlines — not all the time, but certainly when it's in the best interest of their people and it supports the overall objective of their organizations. Changing a deadline is not a sign of ineptitude or weakness. It can be, and often is, a sign of insight and strength."
Politics and the 9/11 Commission:
Senior government policy makers knew even less about possible terrorist threats than the president did, the AP's John Solomon reports. "The Aug. 7, 2001 Senior Executive Intelligence Brief didn't mention the FBI's 70 investigations into possible al Qaeda activity." LINK
The Washington Post's Dan Eggen previews what the 9/11 commission may ask Attorney General John Ashcroft during his testimony today.
"Ashcroft will face sharp questioning about the period, and whether he was sufficiently focused on the al Qaeda threat, during his appearance today before the commission. The line of inquiry will be unusual in its focus on Ashcroft's actions before the attacks. Most of the criticism aimed at the attorney general over the past 2 1/2 years has centered on whether his anti-terrorism strategies after the attacks have been too zealous." LINK
"Aides to Mr. Ashcroft … said he would tell the panel that he was briefed throughout the year on terrorist threats and was never informed — by either the F.B.I. or C.I.A. — that he needed to take special action, since intelligence reports suggested that any attack would be overseas." LINK
"'He asked over and over again if there was any evidence of a domestic threat, and he was told over and over again that there was no evidence of one,' said Mark Corallo, Mr. Ashcroft's spokesman."
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
The Hartford Courant's David Lightman writes of these test-filled days for the Bush presidency. LINK
"Bush is not in any obvious political danger yet, but the administration is aware that every presidency is tested during periods like these, as events unfold — and often unravel — with bullet-like ferocity."
More Lightman: "To survive, Bush has to restore the perception that he's in control of the war in Iraq and the fight against terrorism."
At a "Viva Bush" rally Florida Gov. Jeb Bush launched the BC04 Hispanic national outreach in Orlando yesterday and told a crowd of more than 300 that his brother "'more than any other president before him,' recognizes and values Hispanic contributions," reports the Miami Herald's Clark.LINK
Clark Notes: "[T]he choice of Orlando for the inaugural event signals that Florida, particularly the vein of independent-leaning voters from Orlando to Tampa, will be at the center of the national fight for the Hispanic vote."
The Orlando Sentinel's Brewington on the Hispanic outreach rollout: LINK
AP's Schneider wraps up the event: LINK
The Miami Herald profiles BC04 Southwest political director Rudy Fernandez, "one of the top operatives in President Bush's reelection campaign, and the only Hispanic among the six regional directors."
We like these quotes from those that know Fernandez well:
Former boss and RNC political director Blaise Hazelwood:
"I have to admit, he has a Cuban temper, it's very endearing," Hazelwood said. "He's opinionated. He'll tell you exactly what he thinks."
And Fernandez's girlfriend, who may know too much about the BC04 operations: "I tell him he's part of a cult," she said. "You really have to be brainwashed into thinking this is such a great mission and that it's so important." LINK
Dick Morris keys off of Rasmussen's tracking poll to urge the president to hand over authority to the Iraqis on June 30 and get out of there or your presidency could be in peril. LINK
"We were willing to support Bush in Afghanistan and over the Patriot Act. We backed the invasion of Iraq and agreed that Saddam needed to be removed. Even when no weapons of mass destruction turned up, the American people still supported Bush."
"But last week's polling suggests that Americans are not prepared to sacrifice their sons and daughters to assure democracy in Iraq. That nation, which has never known freedom, may or may not be able to achieve democracy. But Americans are not willing to bet our children on the outcome. Nor should Bush wager his presidency."
The Los Angeles Times' Eric Slater writes that "some gun owners have grown so disenchanted with President Bush that they may cast a protest vote for a third-party candidate, stay away from the polls, or even back the likely Democratic nominee, gun-control advocate John F. Kerry." Major bone of contention according to this piece: the Patriot Act. LINK
"Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel said the president planned to launch a grass-roots outreach effort aimed at gun owners nationwide — similar to one in 2000. And Bush recently invited officials from the NRA, Ducks Unlimited and Pheasants Forever to tour his ranch near Crawford, Texas."
Note the Vice President is slated to address the NRA's annual meeting this Saturday eve in Pittsburgh.
The Washington Post's Amy Goldstein writes "the Bush administration is proposing to transform a cornerstone of the nation's housing policy for the poor, replacing a federal program that provides rent vouchers to 2 million families with a system that would give broad new powers to local housing authorities." LINK
The Washington Post's Milbank and Slevin Note "President Bush, hosting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, called Israel's proposed withdrawal from the Gaza Strip a "positive step" Monday but said it would not take the place of a U.S.-backed plan for a negotiated settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." LINK
The New York Times' Brinkley and Stevenson on the meeting with Mubarak: LINK
USA Today's Richard Benedetto Notes "get-togethers by world leaders at the Bush ranch rarely end in important announcements. But sometimes the fruits of a visit are seen weeks or months later." LINK
We'll be watching.
Attention cable talk show bookers: Dennis Hopper is a Bush supporter. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Sen. John Kerry:
Ahead of the news conference, Sen. Kerry offers les elites his strategy for Iraq in the Washington Post : LINK
"Moving forward, the administration must make the United Nations a full partner responsible for developing Iraq's transition to a new constitution and government. We also need to renew our effort to attract international support in the form of boots on the ground to create a climate of security in Iraq. We need more troops and more people who can train Iraqi troops and assist Iraqi police."
"We should urge NATO to create a new out-of-area operation for Iraq under the lead of a U.S. commander. This would help us obtain more troops from major powers. The events of the past week will make foreign governments extremely reluctant to put their citizens at risk. That is why international acceptance of responsibility for stabilizing Iraq must be matched by international authority for managing the remainder of the Iraqi transition. The United Nations, not the United States, should be the primary civilian partner in working with Iraqi leaders to hold elections, restore government services, rebuild the economy, and re-create a sense of hope and optimism among the Iraqi people. The primary responsibility for security must remain with the U.S. military, preferably helped by NATO until we have an Iraqi security force fully prepared to take responsibility."
The Washington Post's Balz reports that Kerry "said that when Bush decided to go to war with Iraq, there should have been three overriding priorities."
"Number one, maximizing the possibility of success; number two, minimizing the cost financially to the American people; number three, minimizing the risk to our soldiers, to our young men and women in uniform," Kerry said. "I believe the president did the reverse in all three. . . . We're now bearing the enormous burden of that misjudgment." LINK
The New York Times' Halbfinger writes it up as a foreign-policy drop-by. LINK
Glen Johnson's take: LINK
DiStaso's local take: LINK
The Washington Times' Donald Lambro looks at the uneasy feeling some Kerry backers have over his lack of specifics for an Iraq policy. LINK
The New York Daily News' Michael Saul reports Senator Clinton will be "very enthusiastic" when she stumps tomorrow in New York with John Kerry. LINK
Two $$-related stories in today's Globe: LINK and LINK
From ABC News' Kerry campaign reporter Sparklin' Ed O'Keefe:
DURHAM, N.H., April 12 — Sen. John Kerry kicked off a four-campus college tour Monday in a state that helped kick-start his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination. Returning to New Hampshire for the first time since January, Kerry addressed 1,000 students in an ice-less University of New Hampshire hockey rink.
As Guster entertained the crowd at the rink, Kerry subbed for Col. Lionel Ingram's 600-level "Topics in U.S. and World Affairs" in the James Hall Theatre. Given an opportunity his national press corps has not been given since last Tuesday, 40 students queried the Senator on topics including trade, the environment, and Iraq.
Kerry largely restated the case he's been making with regard to Iraq since September 2003, if not earlier. Kerry pushed for a more international approach, arguing, "If I were president today, right now today, I would be going very directly to the United Nations. I would summon the world to an effort that I think the world has a stake in."
He resisted laying out concrete proposals but reiterated during the rally, "(The troops) deserve the support of a policy that doesn't just leave them exposed almost alone."
The Senator, who was nearly an hour late for the eager students, finally had a ready-Wade line for six "flip flop" protestors clapping sandals. As the group taunted, Kerry retorted, "I'll make you a deal. I'll send people to George Bush's rallies and they can bang their unemployment checks together." (Bang?)
The clopping GOPers' efforts were rewarded with a free armed campus police escort from the rally.
The post-Margolis ad rush began this weekend and extended through Monday. Having shot personal scenes on Saturday in Boston, Kerry traveled to the Veronica B. Smith senior center in Brighton, Mass., to shoot closed-press scenes with seniors.
Campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill and the three wise ad men, Bob Shrum, Tad Devine, and Mike Donilon, were in tow.
Kerry continues to alternate Ritz-filled fundraisers and ramen-loving college rallies this week. The Senator visits three more campuses in Rhode Island, New York, and Pennsylvania, all conveniently close to pre-planned fundraisers.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigns for the first time with the presumptive Democratic nominee Wednesday at City College in New York City.
And in Pittsburgh Friday, Kerry shares the stage with rocker Jon Bon Jovi and Steeler giant Franco Harris forcing one of the most difficult decisions the Kerry campaign has made to date.
What makes the best reference in the Senator's opening gag line: "You Give Love a Bad Name" or "The Immaculate Reception"?
USA Today's Andrea Stone writes that Kerry's experience in Vietnam has shaped him as a political leader and that "the fierceness Kerry exhibited then is on display as the Massachusetts senator battles President Bush in what is already a nasty campaign." LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Gold writes up Kerry's push to pick up the youth vote, and leads with the Senator's comments on Iraq, writing that he "hewed carefully to the stance he has taken since the recent bout of fighting erupted in Iraq: a mixture of praise for the troops and strong criticism of the Bush administration's handling of the war." As for Kerry's youth reception, Gold writes "the 500-plus students in the arena audience, many of whom had waited more than an hour for Kerry to speak, applauded respectfully though not enthusiastically." LINK
Longtime Kerry consultant Dan Payne writes a lengthy piece in Salon chronicling Kerry's past campaigns, writing "Kerry has had to run in both difficult primaries and general elections. In every case, he seems to need to feel the shape and impact of the attacks before he acts, which frustrates supporters who panic in the heat of battle and expect Kerry to act precipitously. But as soon as Kerry judges that the charges he's facing are similar to those he has faced before, he and those who have been with him know what to do, almost by instinct — even if they disappoint the Beltway by not responding in the next e-mail. Kerry's election is by no means certain, but he will not lose because he was thrown off balance by what will be hurled at him in the months ahead." Do Note the mention of a "cocky young Boston Irish kid named Mike Whouley." LINK
The Wall Street Journal editorial page reviews John Kerry's misery index: "The most interesting question about Mr. Kerry's misery index is how faithfully it will be updated. As unemployment continues to fall and real incomes rise, will Mr. Kerry stop mourning the demise of the middle class? Since misery loves company, perhaps that's too much to hope."
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:
Steve Raabe of the Denver Post reports on current trends in the dairy industry, where low supplies of milk and strong consumer demand are pushing the price of wholesale milk sharply higher nationwide while helping battered dairy farmers throughout Colorado and the rest of the nation recover from a depression that decimated the dairy industry in the past few years. LINK
Edmund Andrews of the New York Times wisely steps back from Iraq and 9/11 inquiries and focuses on what could be a huge issue in this election, the partisan battle over retirement benefits in this country. LINK
"The issues range from Social Security and Medicare to the stability of private pension plans, but much of the war boils down to a basic question: should Americans save for old age collectively as a nation, or as individuals through private savings and investments?"
More Andrews: "Democrats hope to tie the traditional distrust many older Americans have for proposals that seem to threaten Social Security or Medicare to broader economic anxieties of younger workers about job losses, shaky pension plans, shrunken private savings, the federal deficit and cutbacks in retiree health plans."
"Republicans, who usually accuse their opponents of exaggerating threats to the programs, are resorting to fear as well. They are warning that the two giant entitlement programs will be overwhelmed by soaring costs as the nation's 76 million baby boomers begin to reach retirement age in 2011."
The Los Angeles Times' Anderson writes that for all that money spent, "the unusually early advertising blitz doesn't appear to have shifted the dynamics of the race in targeted states." Do see the second and third graphs for details on who has spent how much thus far. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: Cheney in Asia:
Vice President Cheney "praised Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi for rejecting the kidnappers' demand that Japan withdraw its troops from Iraq," the Los Angeles Times' McManus reports.
McManus also has this interesting tidbit from a senior American official regarding the June 30 transfer of power in Iraq:
Cheney and Koizumi "'talked extensively'" about the situation in Iraq and "Cheney reaffirmed the administration's determination to meet the June 30 deadline, and told Koizumi the U.S. plan is to 'modify the [Iraqi] Governing Council and get it prepared to receive authority,' the official said."LINK
The New York Times LINK and the Washington Post on the Cheney/Koizumi meeting LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:
The Charleston Gazette's Paul Wilson reports on a Toyota plant in West Virginia that is adding 50 more workers to it's roster in 2006, making it the largest investment by a manufacturer in the state in the past half-century. LINK
The Charleston Gazette's Jim Balow reports on DuPont's 100-employee cut in West Virginia as part of a national company wide plan to cut 3,500 jobs, or six percent of the workforce, due to high energy costs and foreign competition. LINK
Touch screen printouts may be coming to Florida — but not by this November. LINK
Should absentee voting require a witness? LINK
ABC Vote 2004: the House:
The Washington Times' Ralph Z. Hallow reports on the GOP field in North Carolina's 5th District race — including Vernon Robinson, dubbed by a local newspaper as the "black Jesse Helms." LINK
Veepstakes:
Roll Call chronicles Bill Richardson's active role in the Land of the 527s. "On the ides of March, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) called Danny McDonald, a Democratic commissioner, and asked a few questions about the FEC's proposed plans. Richardson 'then expressed concern about the political committee rulemaking, indicating he hoped the Commission would not do anything that would become effective during the height of this election cycle,' according to McDonald's summation of the phone call."
Catch Richardson on "Larry King Live" tonight.
The Democratic National Convention:
The Boston Globe reports results from a new study by local think tank the Beacon Hill Institute. "Thousands of Boston commuters delayed by subway and road closings for the Democratic National Convention will cost area businesses $23.8 million in lost productivity and push the economic impact of the event into the red, according to a new study by a local think tank." LINK
The Boston Globe writes that Sen. Ted Kennedy is going to play a large role at the Democratic convention in his home town of Boston and profiles what that role may look like — from a prime time speaking slot as a national party leader, to being a proud host/honored guest at a star-studded gala at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, to being part of the delegation, and to being toasted and roasted by aides, supporters, and friends. LINK
Legislative agenda:
The Wall Street Journal reports that although a congressional effort to legalize imports of cheap prescription drugs hit a pothole a couple of weeks ago, support remains on both sides of the aisle.
"Democrats are eager to do something that they can say will lower drug prices. Some Republicans who helped pass the Medicare prescription-drug benefit want to show that they, too, can be tough on the unpopular drug industry."
Politics:
Justice Scalia has apologized to those Mississippi reporters and he says he intends to allow the recording of his future speeches for print reporters. LINK
The AP's Will Lester looks at the spiffy new Web sites being sported by both the DNC and RNC. LINK
Politics of same-sex marriage:
USA Today's Fred Bayles reports that officials on Cape Cod are planning on ignoring the warning from state Attorney General Tom Reilly that it would be illegal for Massachusetts to issue marriage licenses to residents of the 38 states prohibiting the union. "Officials in the popular gay vacation spot of Provincetown will issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples from other states next month despite a Massachusetts law that may prohibit the out-of-state unions." LINK
The Boston Herald's Steve Marantz reports that Gov. Romney "warned city and town clerks yesterday not to marry gay couples from states that ban same-sex marriage, hoping to ward off a slew of unions among out-of-towners in Provincetown." LINK
USA Today profiles Matt Daniels. LINK
The Washington Post's Evelyn Nieves examines the complications for gay binationals. LINK
TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:30 am: The Department of Commerce releases the retail sales report for March—9:00 am: The 9/11 Commission hears testimony from former FBI Director Louis Freeh —9:30 am: Sen. John Kerry holds a roundtable discussion on the costs of college at the University of Rhode Island, Providence, R.I.—9:45 am: Off-camera gaggle by White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan—10:00 am: Sen. Kerry attends a "Change Starts with U" town hall meeting at the University of Rhode Island, Providence, R.I.—10:00 am: The National Park Service, the U.S. Military District of Washington and the District of Columbia Society Sons of the American Revolution sponsor the 261st birthday anniversary and the 62nd annual celebration of Thomas Jefferson at the Jefferson Memorial—11:00 am: Former Attorney General Janet Reno testifies before the 9/11 Commission—12:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a fundraiser luncheon in the Biltmore, Providence, R.I.—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC Live and AOL—2:00 pm: Former FBI Acting Director Thomas Pickard testifies before the 9/11 Commission—2:00 pm: The Treasury Department issues its monthly budget numbers for March—3:30 pm: Attorney General John Ashcroft testifies before the 9/11 Commission—7:10 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a gala fundraiser at the Sheraton, Boston, Mass.—8:30 pm: President Bush holds a news conference on U.S. led efforts in Iraq at the White House. Full coverage on ABC, ABC News Radio, and ABCNEWS.com