The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, March 5—
, 2004 -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:30 am: The Labor Department issues the Employment Situation for February report—9:00 am: CIA Director George Tenet speaks to the House Intelligence Committee, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: Sens. Tom Daschle, Byron Dorgan, Dianne Feinstein and Jack Reed participate in a forum on the outsourcing of jobs, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: Moveon.org holds a news conference in response to the Bush-Cheney '04's ad campaign at the Sheraton, New York, N.Y.—10:00 am: Laura Bush speaks at the Fort Hood Women's Conference, Fort Hood, Texas—10:00 am: The United Nations Security Council holds closed consultations on Haiti—10:30 am: The New Democratic Network speaks to the press about its ad campaign, Washington, D.C.—10:30 am: Rep. Dennis Kucinich has brunch at Haveli's Restaurant, Irving, Texas—12:00 pm: Sen. Ted Kennedy speaks about intelligence gathering and the war in Iraq at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C.—12:00 pm: Sens. Daschle, Stabenow and Dorgan hold a rally against the outsourcing of jobs, Washington, D.C.—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL—1:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a reception at the Dallas Peace Center, Dallas, Texas—1:30 pm: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee speaks to the press about Senate 2004 campaigns, Washington, D.C.—2:30 pm: Sen. John Kerry attends a rally with Sens. John Breaux and Mary Landrieu and Gov. Kathleen Blancoat at Woldenberg Park, New Orleans, La.—2:45 pm: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle speak to the press, Honolulu, Hawaii—6:00 pm: President and Mrs. Bush welcome Mexican President Vicente Fox and Mrs. Fox to the Bush Ranch, Crawford, Texas—7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at Milam Park, San Antonio, Texas—8:00 pm: President Bush and Mrs. Bush have dinner with President and Mrs. Fox, Crawford, Texas—8:00 pm: Gen. Wesley Clark and Gov. Kathleen Sebelius speak to the press on behalf of Sen. Kerry at the Ramada, Topeka, Kan.—8:00 pm: Former New York Times reporter Jayson Blair appears on NBC's "Dateline"—9:00 pm: Gen. Clark attends a Kansas Democratic Party Ad Astra Dinner on behalf of Sen. Kerry at the Ramada, Topeka, Kan.—9:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a dinner in his honor at the Knights of Columbus Hall, San Antonio, Texas
NEWS SUMMARY
As we head into what will most probably be a relatively quiet, mad-less March political weekend, chew on this: which leading U.S. Senate candidate was once married to Seven of Nine from Star Trek: Voyager?
Now to make an errant wormhole transition several hundred years into the present (less arresting than Jeri Ryan, less annoying than Neelix, with a better flair for the dramatic than Harry Kim) … .
The Bush-Cheney-McKinnon TV ads make their Fox Sports debuts this weekend, and it's gotten us to wondering whether the media's predilection for controversy in the moment ignores the dynamic effect of its own coverage. Dynamic, and not necessarily zero-sum for either side.
Notice the way the coverage frames the debate:
The Washington Post's Paul Fahri writes that the ads "generated criticism and controversy yesterday." LINK
In The New York Times, Stevenson and Rutenberg say "aides were scrambling to counter criticism" LINK
Consider, for a moment, the story of an orange.
It's a regular old orange.
One day, Jeff Zucker at NBC decides to make a television show out of the orange. It runs on Thursday night, in Friends' time slot. The theme music is snazzy.
For 22 minutes, viewers get to watch the orange, doing nothing, just sitting there.
The next day, to hype the program, (called "Orange You Glad") the NBC PR folks rope off a small section of Times Square and put the orange on a pedestal in the center. Thousands of people stop by and gawk. "IT'S THE ORANGE," they say. "The ORANGE that was on television last night!!!"
The moral of this strange little tale: it doesn't matter that the orange is a stupid old orange. It was on television, people saw it, and now they're interested in it. Context be damned.
The repetition of the Bush ad and the 9/11 imagery, even amid the throes of a "controversy," are bound to increase the association that viewers make between President Bush and his 9/11 leadership. So it doesn't seem necessarily obvious to us that they are on the defensive, here, or are particularly worried about seeming crass.
No one for a moment doubts the strong feelings expressed by victims' families, and we're not suggesting that criticism of the ads aren't warranted. (Perhaps they are, perhaps they're not). It's just that the mere fact of doing the story increases the odds that the goal of the ads will be fulfilled. (Well, at least half the goal — the question then becomes — will some key swingish people think that there has been a loss of national unity since then?) Especially this early in the season, when message-formation is perhaps the most potent weapon in the political arsenal.
What's Bush's re-election message? Easy: Steady leadership in times of change.
What's Kerry's election message? Ah … .Well, it used to be … Howard Dean by-way-of Joe Lieberman … . I'm strong where Bush is strong and strong where he's weak.
But today?
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein: "Amid a Democratic presidential race that has turned less on issues than perceptions of the candidates' personal qualities and electability, the Massachusetts senator stands as the presumptive nominee with many unsure whether he intends to steer the party to the left or back toward the centrist themes associated with Bill Clinton — or impose no distinctive direction at all." LINK
Says the New York Times ' Rutenberg and Stevenson: "Mr. Bush's aides said that they would not pull the commercials and that the battle over them could even work to their advantage by focusing new attention on what they said was the president's forceful response to the attacks and the continued threat from terrorists. They said the controversy had been expected and was serving their aim of changing the debate from Democratic turf like health care and jobs to Mr. Bush's strongest suit, national security." LINK
Indeed, with numbers like these … ABC News' Schindelheim says the Labor Department reports that the economy added just 21,000 new jobs for the month, well below expectations. "The Labor Department revised downward the January number to +97,000 and the December number to +8,000. That's just 364,000 new jobs in the past six months. The number of unemployed was 8.2 million in February, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6%. Both measures are below their recent highs of June 2003."
USA Today's Walter Shapiro takes a look at the two schools of campaign ads: those inspired by the Anything Goes type of politics and those by the Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farms kind of politics. He reminds us that these controversial Bush campaign ads are "pretty mild fare" compared with the attack ads coming to a television near you this cycle. LINK
Memo to CAP/ACT/AV/Media Fund folks: Yes, you're on track to be wheels-up shortly, but how bad is the uncertainty over the FEC hurting your fundraising? Ooh, ooh. Better question: will the rush to collect dollars for John Kerry crowd out your solicitations?
Today, Sen. Kerry is in Louisiana. The Times Picayune's Bruce Alpert Notes the Bush campaign's efforts to discredit the trip. LINK
Kerry is in Texas on Saturday and in Mississippi on Sunday.
Rev. Sharpton is in New York.
Rep. Kucinich is in Texas. He will remain in Texas through the weekend.
Ralph Nader is in Washington, D.C.
President Bush is at his ranch in Crawford, Texas to visit with President Vicente Fox of Mexico. He remains at his ranch through the weekend.
This, incidentally, is a marvelous story by Ms. Greenhouse. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:
Just in case reality has not set it for everyone out there, USA Today's Andrea Stone's story points out that election year politics have absolutely begun. Congressional Democrats are rallying around their apparent presidential candidate (aides to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle will have a strategy session with Kerry campaign staffers next week) and congressional Republicans are making their list and checking it twice on all the ways Kerry is a "Massachusetts liberal." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
Today, victims' families, firefighters and political groups that oppose the president will gather in New York City to protest the use of 9/11 images in the campaign ads. The event is sponsored by Peaceful Tomorrows, a group of anti-war families of Sept. 11 victims.
The New York Daily News' Haberman and Bazinet look at the "uproar" over the ads and the campaign's handling of the issue yesterday. LINK
The New York Post 's Morris reports that former New York Mayor Giuliani and Mayor Bloomberg defended the ads and quickly went to work trying to squash the controversy.LINK
The reaction to the ads "put the Bush campaign in an uncomfortable position at a time when it had hoped to begin defining the incumbent in contrast to his challenger," reports New York Times ' Stevenson and Rutenberg. LINK
And campaign officials put a positive spin on the ad rollout, the duo Notes: "They said the controversy had been expected and was serving their aim of changing the debate from Democratic turf like health care and jobs to Mr. Bush's strongest suit, national security."
The Los Angeles Times' Anderson Notes that "the initial furor sparked in some quarters made it clear that Bush is treading on potentially treacherous political ground."LINK
The Washington Post's Paul Farhi reports that the Bush campaign is on the defensive today as "relatives of the victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist strikes charged that television commercials using images from the attacks were exploiting the tragedy for political gain."LINK
The Boston Globe's Washington and Kornblut report: "Another adviser said that the Bush-Cheney campaign welcomed the debate over the ads, arguing that it is better for Bush to face a discussion about his handling of Sept. 11 than almost any other topic the Democrats have raised in recent weeks."LINK
USA Today's Walter Shapiro thinks that it's "hard to get overwrought about the Bush commercials. They are pretty mild fare."LINK
USA Today's Memmott and Keen on the ads:LINK
Jackie Calmes of Washington Wire fame reports that Florida is getting the largest windfall from the Bush-Cheney initial ad buy.
"The Bush-Cheney re-election committee bought more than $860,000 in that 2000 battleground state — more than double the next-biggest buys in Pennsylvania and Michigan."
The Wall Street Journal editorial board thinks all the fuss about the 9/11 imagery in the ad is a bit of a stretch. "Please … The threat of another such assault, and how to prevent it, has dominated our politics for three years. From tax cuts designed to save the economy from the double-whammy of terrorism and recession, to the Patriot Act, to regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq as part of Mr. Bush's "forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East," just about every recent major policy is inextricably linked to the event so mildly depicted in these Bush ads. Isn't an election supposed to be about such things?"
The New York Times reminds President of his words from January 2003 about no politicizing 9/11 and passes on the message that they "applaud that sentiment." LINK
The economy was topic A at the president's events in California yesterday, where he "reprised themes that are part of his campaign speeches — in particular, that Democrats want to raise taxes and expand the federal government," reports the Los Angeles Times' Reynolds. LINK
AP's Lindlaw looks at the differences between the two presidential candidates: "Virtually the only area where they disagree on this issue is on Kerry's call to end tax cuts Bush signed into law for those earning more than $200,000 a year."LINK
And President Bush took a shot at Sen. Kerry yesterday in California, mentioning him by name and portraying him as a waffler: "In fact, Senator Kerry has been in Washington long enough to take both sides on just about every issue."
The Washington Post's Mike Allen reports President Bush continues to express a message of economic optimism as he begins his campaign this week and Notes: "Television market by television market and state by state, the president is trying to make the case that his tax cuts were good for the economy even though they have failed to produce the jobs he forecast." LINK
Just like a bad breakup, nobody wants to ever take the blame for having the recession start on their watch. But in the case of economic number, you won't hear "it's not you, it's me."
The Washington Post's Dana Milbank reports that although the Bush administration claims the recession began under Clinton's watch "the nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research, which does the official dating of recessions, says the downturn began in March 2001 — early in Bush's presidency." LINK
And something that should come as no surprise to anyone — "The taxpayer-subsidized fundraising trips are just one of the ways Bush is maximizing the advantages of incumbency in preparing for his reelection race."
The Washington Post's Mike Allen Notes looks at the disbursements paid by the campaign back to the government for campaign-related travel and expenses. LINK
The Washington Post's editorial board looks at the nitty-gritty of linking tax policy to the economic cycle and doesn't buy Vice President Cheney's "curious take" on the subject.LINK
Things are looking better for President Bush with regards to the conservative base, after several Notable moves recently, reports Washington Times' Hallow: "From gun control to judicial appointments to supporting a constitutional marriage amendment, Mr. Bush's election-year moves in the past few weeks have done much to mend fences with disgruntled grass-roots Republicans."LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: The Senate:
We lament together with Chuck Todd … why, oh, why, does no one pay attention to Senate races?
From today's Chicago Tribune: "The Republican and Democratic races for the U.S. Senate are rapidly devolving in the closing days from a debate on the economy, security and other vital national issues into a detailed examination of alleged character flaws arising from failed domestic relationships of the frontrunners." LINK
"With less than two weeks left in a primary campaign in which all candidates have had trouble captivating voters, Democrat Blair Hull and Republican Jack Ryan now find themselves concentrating on overcoming mounting questions about their behavior resulting from their divorces."
The land of 5-plus-2-equals-7:
The hand of doom pervades articles about the Federal Election Commission beginning its rulemaking process for the 527s. It'll take a while before they're done, and the big question — will whatever leaves the Commission take effect this election cycle — has yet to be decided.
Key graphs from the Key writers:
The Washington Post's Edsall: "The proposed regulations, drafted by the agency's general counsel, would severely crimp the fundraising and spending activities of "527" groups, named for the section of the tax code that governs their activities. But advocates of the tough regulations suffered a setback when a Democratic commissioner in a position to cast the key swing vote said she is likely to oppose any changes in the rules that would take effect before the November elections." LINK
The New York Times' Justice: "The primary issue is whether 527 committees should be regulated the same way as other political groups, which are subject to contribution limits and other campaign finance restrictions. Such restrictions could effectively put the committees out of the soft-money business. The commission's complex, 108-page document contained a menu of options for regulating the 527 committees, rather than committing to a single approach." LINK
USA Today's Drinkard: ""Any group that has as its 'major purpose' the influencing of federal elections could be made subject to a contribution limit of $5,000 from an individual, rather than the unlimited contributions they now receive." LINK
AP's Theimer: "Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club, attending a news conference with other Democratic-leaning groups including the AFL-CIO and the American Votes coalition, said the groups would sue to overturn any rules that they thought quashed their ability to speak out about politicians and government policy." LINK
Kerry:
Kerry plans "to raise $80 million before the Democratic National Convention this summer," reports Glen Justice of the New York Times. LINK
The Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings writes up the Kerry fundraising plan too and floats that $80 million figure out there as well. Cummings goes on to look at the awkward dance occurring as fundraisers from former rivals merge with the presumptive nominee's staff.
"But the integration process can be tricky. It 'takes a lot of phone calls and meetings' to make the new fund-raisers feel they are part of the in group' while still showing appreciation for those who stuck with Mr. Kerry through the fall when his prospects faltered, Mr. Susman says."
The New York Times' Kit Seelye profiles DNC chair Terry "mechanics" McAuliffe (or "Gov." as they like to call him in New York and Florida), Noting that "Mary Beth Cahill, said on Thursday that the campaign would let Mr. McAuliffe retain his title of chairman and that he would continue to raise money." The story is full of nuggets to be cherished, including Hillary Clinton's on-the-record cheerleading and her reminder that her husband didn't replace the party chairman in 1992 when he emerged the nominee. LINK
One question for Steve Grossman: First you go to Dean and then you praise Terry's nomination calendar. Exactly which job in the Kerry campaign are you seeking to fill?
The Senate Ethics Committee has advised David McKean to withhold the name of the senator he currently works for, Kerry, from his new book, "so as not to create the appearance of using his position in the U.S. government for commercial purposes," writes David Rosenbaum of the New York Times. LINK
Chris Sprigman, a fellow at the Center for Internet and Society at Stanford Law School, writes in today's New York Times that Kerry should consider using a "shadow cabinet" to credibly criticize government actions and offer alternative policies. LINK
The New York Sun's national reporter, Josh Gerstein, has interesting details of a heated between Kerry and minority contractors in Boston. LINK
Edwards:
The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne suggests that Sen. Edwards has left behind a "legacy"or more importantly "an argument — an analysis of what ails our country and an approach to putting things right that will survive his campaign." LINK
From the outside:
One day after the Moveon.org folks are up with their spot criticizing the president's policies, the New Democrat Network joins the ad fray, going up on the air with two Spanish-language ads in the Phoenix, Albequerque, and Las Vegas markets. We are told the ad buy is "real" and enough to be seen on Spanish-language television in these markets.
Some readers might remember that the NDN'ers were on the air last year with spots taking on the President. And the group says it aims to stay up this time around with a "national campaign to help Latinos better understand the stark issue differences between Democrats and Republicans this year."
Leading a $5 million fundraising drive to finance this campaign: one Henry Cisneros.
Here's a look at one of the spots:
Cuando quiso llegar a la Casa Blanca, George Bush prometió ser amigo de la comunidad latina y hacer lo mejor por nuestros niños. (When he wanted to reach the White House, George Bush promised to be a friend of the Latino community and do what's best for our children.)
Pero no ha cumplido sus promesas. (But he has not kept his promises.)
Nos prometió invertir 18 mil millones de dólares en las escuelas más pobres. (He promised us he would invest 18 billion dollars for the poorest schools.)
Pero ahora quiere gastar miles de millones menos. (But now he wants to spend billions less.)
Escriba a la Casa Blanca y dígale al Presidente que los amigos cumplen su palabra. (Write the White House and tell the president that friends keep their word.)
Presidente Bush, ¿por qué ha roto su promesa? (President Bush, why did you break your promise?)
And a glimpse at the other:
Los demócratas siempre han sido nuestros mejores amigos. Con ellos nuestro progreso está asegurado. (The Democrats have always been our best friend. With them our progress is secured.)
Stay tuned, this week is just the beginnig of the air war fun from the outside, we are sure of it.
Veepstakes:
The Boston Globe's Glen Johnson explains how Sen. Kerry's experience as a vice presidential contender in 2000 determined how he would handle the process this year — including why he picked the well-respected Jim Johnson to head up the search. LINK
John Edwards is James Carville's pick for the running mate slot. In the Wall Street Journal, Al Hunt picks Carville's brain for other possibilities and somehow Richard Daley ends up in the wildcard section.
Nader:
Will Lester of the AP declares the Nader factor a real issue in this election, based on yesterday's AP poll, thus "validating Democrats' fears." LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Robin Abcarian takes a look at the Nader backlash from the Left Coast, and comes to the same conclusion many have already reached:
"To many Democrats, Nader represents an election-stealing evil just this side of the anti-Christ." LINK
Abcarain dredges up a couple of sweet gossipy bits about Nader's once enviable celebrity draw:
"After Nader's friend Michael Moore, author of the anti-Bush tome "Dude, Where's My Country?," endorsed the now-failed candidacy of retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark in New Hampshire last month, Nader dropped him a note asking, "Hey dude, where's my buddy?"
Sharpton:
James Rainey of the Los Angeles Times reports that Rev. Sharpton seems to be staging a conditional exit. LINK
Kucinich:
The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Kucinich plans to stay in the race "until Senator Kerry is nominated at the convention." LINK
The economy:
The Wall Street Journal's Michael Phillips reports campaign season has arrived and "Congress is charging headlong into the debate over the outsourcing of white-collar jobs to Bangalore, India; Accra, Ghana; and other exotic locales."
The Wall Street Journal's Rogers and McKinnon write the Senate "voted to impose new restrictions on government contractors to discourage companies from outsourcing American jobs overseas."
Big Casino budget politics
Former Senator and astronaut John Glenn said Thursday that he "opposed cutting money from the International Space Station and basic scientific research to pay for President Bush's goal of sending astronauts to the Moon and Mars," writes the New York Times' Warren Leary. LINK
"The Senate Budget Committee voted Thursday night to shave $7 billion in military spending off President Bush's request, even as lawmakers acknowledged there would be heavy pressure to restore the money when the full Senate takes up the matter next week," writes the New York Times ' Oppel. LINK
The New York Times' Paul Krugman writes that modest reforms for Social Security are necessary, but "beware of those who claim that we must destroy the system in order to save it." LINK
The Politics of national security:
Sen. Ted Kennedy is set to criticize the Bush Administration and its use of intelligence on Iraq at 12:30 p.m. today in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C. Kennedy will accuse the White House of manipulating intelligence on Iraq, and the Iraqi expatriates working with the Pentagon of hyping the intelligence they provided. He will also urge CIA Director George Tenet to come forward if he feels that the White House changed facts, misused or ignored intelligence or "relied on dubious sources in the Iraq exile community."
The Note has obtained some excerpts:
"Tenet needs to explain to Congress and the country why he waited until last month — nearly a year after the war started — to set the record straight. Intelligence analysts had long been frustrated about the way intelligence was being misused to justify war. In February 2003, an official described the feelings of some analysts in the intelligence agencies to the New York Times , saying 'I think there is also a sense of disappointment with the community's leadership that they are not standing up for them at a time when the intelligence is obviously being politicized.'"
"Why wasn't CIA Director Tenet correcting the president and the Vice President and the Secretary of Defense a year ago, when it could have made a difference, when it could have prevented a needless war, when it could have saved so many lives?"
"America went to war in Iraq because President Bush insisted that nuclear weapons in the hands of Saddam Hussein and his ties to Al Qaeda were too dangerous to ignore. Congress never would have voted to authorize the war if we had known the facts."
Republican National Convention:
The New York Times' Jennifer Steinhauer explores the complex relationship between the Bloomberg administration and national Republicans planning the convention and ponders what it all means for the mayor's 2005 reelection bid. LINK
"It is as if Mr. Bloomberg will be host of a dinner party where half the guests cannot stand the other half, and it is only the salad course."
Politics:
ABC News' Jake Tapper reports on the potential security problems with what seemed to be super cool, high-tech voting machines replacing those silly old chads.LINK
He talks exclusively to Bev Harris, entrepreneur-turned-internet-journalist, who discovered a Web site that she calls a "virtual tutorial on how to rig an election."
Bruce Alpert of the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that first-term Rep. Rodney Alexander (D) may switch his party allegiance in the face of Kerry's nomination.
Alexander said yesterday, "I'm not particularly happy with the candidate of the Democratic Party and I've already said that I won't endorse him and that I didn't think his views are consistent with my own, or my congressional district." Alexander had previously endorsed President Bush for reelection. LINK
We're told the NRCC shouldn't start jumping up and down just yet.
The Wall Street Journal's Greenberger reports, "the Senate Judiciary Committee will decide next week whether to press for criminal charges against two former Republican staffers who accessed Democratic senators' computer files containing strategies for opposing some of President Bush's appeals-court nominees."
The Washington Times' George Archibald Notes that the National Education Association will have its spending audited by the Labor Department and the IRS. LINK
Jerry Seper of the Washington Times reports that President Bush is considering easing the way for Mexicans to enter the U.S., and will discuss rescinding new regulations requiring fingerprinting with Mexican President Vincente Fox this weekend. LINK
The Washington Post's Helen Dewar writes that a three-month investigation by Senate Sergeant-at-Arms William H. Pickle "found a systematic downloading of thousands of Democratic computer files by Republican staffers over the past few years as well as serious flaws in the chamber's computer security system." LINK
The Washington Post's Charles Lane examines the inside of Justice Blackmun's term. LINK
The Washington Post's Barbash writes although the cases revealed in the Blackmum papers were prominent "his voluminous papers afford an exceptional view into the court's personalities and private arguments." LINK
The Washington Post's editorial board writes how the "lawmakers-raising-money-for-charity racket has taken off in recent years, and — while there's an element of extortion in members of Congress hitting up lobbyists for donations to favored charities — it's hard to complain about money going for cancer research and the like." LINK
Maya Rockeymoore of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation writes to the Washington Post that the foundation is "outraged that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan would propose a cut to Social Security retirement benefits to address the nation's budget deficits and allow room in the budget to make permanent the Bush administration tax cuts." LINK