The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, Jan. 10—
, 2004 -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):

— 8:00 am: Gen. Wesley Clark attends a pancake Breakfast, Manchester, N.H. — 9:00 am: Gov. Dean attends a "Meet-the-Candidate" event at Berlin Junior High School, Berlin, N.H. — 9:00 am: Rep. Richard Gephardt attends a "Countdown to Victory" event at the Senior Center, Independence, Iowa — 10:00 am: Gen. Clark speaks at the New Hampshire College 2004 Convention, Manchester, N.H. — 10:00 am: Rep. Dennis Kucinich attends a rally, Winterset, Iowa — 10:30 am: Sen. Kerry attends a rally with Sen. Ted Kennedy at the Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds, Davenport, Iowa — 10:45 am: Mr. Gore attends a "Caucus for Dean" Event, Burlington, Iowa — 11:00 am: Rep. Gephardt attends a "Countdown to Victory" event at Cunningham School, Waterloo, Iowa — 11:00 am: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally, Indianola, Iowa — 12:15 pm: Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun lunches with the South Carolina Alliance of Black Educators, Myrtle Beach, S.C. — 1:00 pm: Rep. Gephardt attends a "Countdown to Victory" event at the Waverly Civic Center, Waverly, Iowa — 1:30 pm: Ambassador Moseley Braun speaks to the press, Myrtle Beach, S.C. — 1:45 pm: Mr. Gore attends a "Caucus for Dean" event, Davenport, Iowa — 2:00 pm: Gov. Dean speaks to an AFSCME conference at the Hilton, Springfield, Ill. — 2:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a rally with Sen. Kennedy at the Grand River Center, Dubuque, Iowa — 2:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at Ottumwa Country Kitchen, Ottumwa, Iowa — 3:00 pm: Rep. Gephardt attends a "Countdown to Victory" event at the Floyd County Historical Museum, Charles City, Iowa— 3:00 pm: Gen. Clark meets with supporters at the Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College, Superior, Wis. — 3:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a dessert reception, Fairfield, Iowa — 4:00 pm: Rep. Jim Clyburn meets with the Trade Union Leadership Council on behalf of Rep. Richard Gephardt, Detroit, Mich. — 4:45 pm: Gov. Howard Dean attends a rally with former Vice President Al Gore and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, Dubuque, Iowa — 5:00 pm: Rep. Gephardt attends a "Countdown to Victory" event at Dock's Restaurant, Clear Lake, Iowa — 5:00 pm: Sen. Edwards speaks about the two economies in America, Davenport, Iowa — 5:15 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at the Port of Burlington, Burlington, Iowa — 5:30 pm: Sen. Joe Lieberman attends a house party, Bow, N.H. — 6:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a rally with Sen. Kennedy at Washington High School, Cedar Rapids, Iowa — 6:30 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with Democratic activists at the Community College Theater, Muscatine, Iowa — 7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a chili supper at a Masonic Temple, Mt. Pleasant, Iowa — 7:30 pm: Mr. Gore attends a "Caucus for Dean" event, Mason City, Iowa — 7:30 pm: Gen. Clark meets with veterans at the Best Western, Bismark, N.D. — 7:45 pm: Sen. Kerry speaks at the Linn County Democratic Party's Hall of Fame Dinner at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, Cedar Rapids, Iowa— 8:00 pm: Rep. Gephardt attends a "Countdown to Victory" event at Fort Dodge Senior High School, Fort Dodge, Iowa — 8:00 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with Johnson County Democratic activists, Solon, Iowa — 8:30 pm: Gen. Clark meets with Native Americans at the Best Western, Bismark, N.D. — 8:30 pm: Sen. Edwards speaks at the Linn County Democratic dinner, Cedar Rapids, Iowa — 9:00 pm: Gov. Dean speaks at the Linn County Hall of Fame Dinner, Cedar Rapids, Iowa — 9:00 pm: Lieberman Campaign Director Craig Smith speaks at the North Dakota annual Jefferson Jackson Dinner, Bismarck, N.D. — 9:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends the Linn County Democratic dinner, Cedar Rapids, Iowa — 9:45 pm: Gen. Clark gives the keynote address at the North Dakota annual Jefferson Jackson Dinner, Bismark, N.D.

NEWS SUMMARY

We weren't sure whether to lead with the lead -- Joe Trippi's rumble in the jungle with Paula Zahn, captured blow-by-blow on blog (www.blogforamerica.com).... (Sample comment: "Trippi rules...Zahn drools") . . .

Or something less substantive, like the observation that the Harkin endorsement neutralized a bad news cycle for Howard Dean, one of only, well, about ten left before the Iowa precinct caucuses.

Or something even less substantive, like the trial balloon floated by Gov. Dean and his advisers about a modified payroll tax cut and other middle class tax reforms, slated to be introduced no later than, say, September. (Watch This Week with George Stephanopoulos tomorrow for an exclusive interview on this, and much more).

Or even less: that the "chaos of Burlington," mocked by The Note, et. al., has acquired somewhat of a ringmaster: John Haber has joined the campaign as a sort of a chief of staff. He'll function as chief operating officer, reporting to Trippi. He is a former Administrative Assistant to Sen. Dianne Feinstein. "He's my right-hand guy," Trippi told ABC News.

For those Democrats preparing the 527s to wage war, the lead story, and their greatest hopes, are encapsulated in Edmund L. Andrews' New York Times story:

"The problem confronting Mr. Bush is that there is little he can do between now and the elections except wait and hope that the employment picture improves." But... "It is entirely possible that the job trend will abruptly improve over the next several months. Businesses are more optimistic and more willing to invest in expansion than they have been in years, and that should translate into more jobs at some point." LINK

"Democrats seized on Friday's middling job figures to press their attack on President Bush with renewed vigor," reports the LA Times' Mark Barabak in his review of yesterday's December jobs report. LINK

We'll be right back, but we have to pee... LINK

Maybe we'll read Ron Suskind's new book while were in the bathroom and contemplate what the Sunday shows will do with it, what blind quotes the White House will put out about O'Neill, and what Suskind's excellent researcher, one Alan Wirzbicki, is doing today. LINK and LINK

On to Iowa:

ABC News Polling Unit director Gary Langer analyzes the results of latest Los Angeles Times Iowa poll: "[It] has Dean slightly ahead of Gephardt: Dean with 30 percent support, Gephardt 23, Kerry 18, Edwards 11, the rest in single digits. Interviews were conducted Monday-Thursday, entirely before the Harkin endorsement. Timing isn't perfect, but methodologically this the best poll we've seen out of Iowa, and probably the best we will see."

Given the sample size (640), Dean's lead falls barely short of the level needed for statistical significance at the customary 95-percent confidence level - hence the phrase 'slightly ahead.' But it's darn close: One can say with 92 percent certainty (as opposed to 95) that Dean has a real lead in this poll. The results are quite similar to those in a Research 2000 poll finished Wednesday and a Pew poll back on Dec. 4."

"The LA Times poll is superior because the Times went to the expense of drilling down through a random-digit dialed sample of all Iowans to find likely caucus goers. Other Iowa polls are based on a list of registered Democrats and independents purchased from the Secretary of State; the list has around 35 percent noncoverage due to absent or nonworking phone numbers."

The Times' Brownstein writes that "The survey also showed likely caucus voters were surprisingly fluid in their commitments to the candidates, even after months of intensive campaigning." LINK

"Gephardt is dependent on older, lower-income, moderate and non-college-educated voters: a modern version of the New Deal coalition that defined the Democratic Party from President Franklin D. Roosevelt to Lyndon B. Johnson."

"Dean runs best among the younger, better-educated, more affluent, socially liberal voters who have become increasingly important to Democratic fortunes since the early 1970s."

The Chicago Tribune's Zeleny writes up what is actually a Tribune family poll -- and Jeff's version will actually be read in Iowa!!:

"While Dean may have an edge overall, Gephardt's supporters are more loyal with more than two-thirds saying they are certain of their support for him. Among Dean supporters, 61 percent say they are absolutely committed to him, while 58 percent of Edwards backers say their support is firm. Kerry's followers, though, are almost equally divided over whether they will stick with him or choose someone else in the final days of the campaign." LINK

For those of you still trying to achieve a Browerian-level of understanding of how the caucus process works, here's a sophistimacated Globe op-ed from a political scientist on second place, viability, and Gephardt's caucus plan. LINK

President Bush is down in Crawford ranch today.

Gov. Dean campaigns in New Hampshire this morning, Illinois early this afternoon, and in Iowa with Sen. Harkin and Mr. Gore. He attends the Linn County Democratic dinner this evening. Governor -- say hello to Professor Loebsack for us.

Rep. Gephardt campaigns in Iowa and Rep. Clyburn campaigns on Gephardt's behalf in Michigan today.

Sens. Edwards and Kerry and Rep. Kucinich are in Iowa and participate in the Linn County Democratic Party dinner.

Gen. Clark is in New Hampshire this morning and Wisconsin and North Dakota this afternoon. (ABC News campaign reporter Deborah Apton sleepily writes from her ailing Blackberry: " OK, so at 5 am today the traveling press opened their doors to see a hand-written not from The General...in my case, a pecan pie as well that General Clark decided to give me from a campaign stop." Yummy!

Sen. Lieberman campaigns in New Hampshire this evening.

Ambassador Moseley Braun is in South Carolina today.

Rev. Sharpton has no events today.

Plug break:

A reminder to watch The Note on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, tomorrow at 9 a.m. Check your local listings, and get the best and juiciest political information on your plasma screen. Get on the bush with Howard Dean, John Edwards, John Kerry and Dick Gephardt. Plus: Treasury Secretary John Snow.

Today's top clips:

The AP's Ross Sneyd reports that although key union endorsements have helped propel Dean into the forefront of the Democratic presidential race, he wasn't always the darling of organized labor while governor in Vermont. LINK

Sen. Harkin's " backing could not have come at a better moment for Dr. Dean, who spent much of the day scrambling to recover from a four-year-old videotape that was played Thursday night on NBC News showing him disparaging the caucus process as dominated by special interests," write Wilgoren and Hulse in the Times. LINK

The Post Notes, importantly, that Dean's caucus comments "led the local news broadcasts in Des Moines, before Harkin's endorsement." LINK

Others:

The L.A. Times: LINK

--The Globe: LINK

--The Globe, part deux. From Kerry's perspective... LINK

--The Register: LINK

The Boston Globe's Michael Kranish got an interview with Dean to confirm the payroll tax cut, as well as a late night call from Jeremy Ben-Ami! LINK

O ye'll take the high road . . . LINK

"It is unlikely that potential caucus-goers will miss the ads by the time voting begins a week from Monday. Dean's campaign, for example, is seeking to reach each would-be voter with its message eight to 10 times per week in the two weeks before the caucuses, says Steve McMahon, Dean's media adviser. He estimates that Gephardt and Kerry are buying a similar amount of advertising time. Edwards and Kucinich are at somewhat lesser levels. Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun are not advertising on television."

This is the story Michael Slackman has been waiting to write -- and it's a doozy, delving into Rev. Sharpton's finances, his fancy hotels, his NAN charity, and more. LINK

More and more and more. . .

The AP's John Solomon: "Just months before he signed a state tax break for insurers in 1993, then-Vermont Gov. Howard Dean met with executives from two companies that might benefit."

"Then Dean received a gift from the companies' lobbyist, followed by more than $60,000 in donations over the next two years to one of Dean's own charity funds."

"The relationship between Dean and the nontraditional insurance industry is detailed in a series of letters obtained by The Associated Press in which both sides discussed official state business and private financial matters in the same correspondence." LINK

"'We greatly appreciate the flexibility your administration and its predecessors have promoted in the regulation of insurance company,' one of the companies wrote Dean in 1995. A few sentences later, the company announced it was donating more money to his charity."

"In addition to a contribution in 1994, I am pleased to inform you that we have just forwarded a second contribution in the amount of $25,000 to assist with the project's important work."

Howard Dean gets the cover on this week's issue on US News and World report. Politics editor Roger Simon writes that Dean is leaving open the possibility of running on the same ticket with Hillary Rodham Clinton, saying that her support of the Iraq war would "absolutely not" disqualify her or anyone else from becoming his running mate. Dean also goes on to discusses that his campaign's main "choke" point, the point in the primary season at which things could turn bad, is Feb. 10, when Virginia and Tennessee vote. Neither seems a Dean-leaning state (though Dean has a lot of high-profile support in Virginia), and should Clark surge to the forefront as Dean's main rival, both states could be good for him.

The magazine also obtained a confidential memo to Dean, written shortly before the formal announcement of his candidacy by campaign manager Joe Trippi and other staffers, urging him not to be just another typical candidate "who has a health care plan," but to become a "transformational leader that rises to the historical moment, and leads a movement to save and restore America's ideals . . ."

The Register's Lee Rood previews Sunday's Brown & Black Presidential Forum, debate in Des Moines, sure to be focused on the candidates' positions on minority issues. LINK

The Iowa Democratic Party worked to ease concerns Friday about the integrity of the Iowa caucuses, reports the Register's Lynn Okamoto. LINK

What we say is: if you can't trust Gordon Fischer, whom can you trust (besides the waitress at Centro peddling the cheeseburger soup special . . .)?

A good, revealing On The Trail from Lois Romano about Dick Gephardt. LINK

Clark says: No terrorist attacks on my watch, if I can help it. LINK

The Globe on his "inroads" Clark is making in New Hampshire. LINK

Ralph Nader to Dems: Don't worry guys . . . my (possible) run for president will help you! LINK

Kerry's hope for a strong showing in Iowa . . . LINK

It's nice that Republicans like Joe; they just can't vote. LINK

Time on managing expectations. LINK

Gephardt pushed his health care plan. LINK

The Boston Herald captures Dean and Gephardt's New Hampshire campaign clashing rather nicely. LINK

The Michigan Democratic Party's experiment with online voting is gussied up and profiled in the New York Times, with candidate stratagems a-plenty:

"Since New Year's Day, voters have been allowed to apply for ballots and vote by mail or Internet in advance of the Feb. 7 caucuses. Or, on Feb. 7, they can go to one of 576 caucus sites and vote the old-fashioned way. By Thursday night, 11,000 people had applied for ballots, three-fourths of them over the Internet, according to the Michigan Democratic Party. About 100 people had voted so far, 90 of them online." LINK

Tireless Jodi Wilgoren found time to write a separate story about Dean attacking President Bush about stem cell research in New Hampshire. LINK

Auto makers are hopeful about the economy. LINK

The Post on the Kucinich, Sharpton, Moseley Braun DC primary debate. LINK

No Times editorial writer is left...who hasn't written about No Child Left Behind. LINK

Fly me to the moon...just do it! LINK

More DC voucher pushing by The White House. ">LINK

Ain't Elmendorf a handsome feller? LINK