The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Feb. 8—
, 2004 -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):
—10:30 am: Sen. Edwards attends services at Trinity Baptist Church, Richmond, Va. —10:45 am: Gen. Clark attends services at New Hope Missionary Baptist Church, Memphis, Tenn. —11:00 am: Sen. Kerry attends church services at the Deliverance Evangelistic Church, Richmond, Va. —11:30 am: Sen. Edwards attends services at First Baptist Church in South Richmond, Va. —1:00 pm: Rep. Dennis Kucinich visits a caucus site at the Bangor Civic Center, Bangor, Maine —1:00 pm: Polls/caucus sites open in Maine —1:45 pm: Gov. Howard Dean visits a caucus site at Waterville High School, Waterville, Maine —3:00 pm: Gen. Clark attends a "Working for Wisconsin" jobs forum with Gov. Jim Doyle at the Racine Labor Center, Racine, Wis. —3:15 pm: Gov. Dean visits Lewiston High School, Lewiston, Maine —3:15 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a "Rally for America's Future" event at Oscar E. Smith High School, Chesapeake, Va. —3:15 pm: Rep. Kucinich visits a caucus site at Lewiston High School, Lewiston, Maine —3:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich visits a caucus site at Auburn Middle School, Auburn, Maine —4:00 pm: Gov. Dean visits a caucus site at Auburn Middle School, Auburn, Maine —4:00 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with voters at the Carnegie Center for Arts and History, Jackson, Tenn. —4:00 pm: Rep. Kucinch visits a caucus site at Deering High School, Portland, Maine —5:15 pm: Gov. Dean visits a caucus site at Deering High School, Portland, Maine —6:00 pm: Former Vice President Al Gore speaks at the Tennessee Democratic Party's primary celebration party at the Hilton, Nashville, Tenn. —7:00 pm: Sen. Edwards and Gen. Clark speak at the Tennessee primary celebration, Nashville, Tenn. —7:30 pm: Gov. Dean visits a caucus site at Westbrook High School, Westbrook, Maine —8:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a caucus results party at the Aucocisco Gallery, Portland, Maine —8:00 pm: Polls/caucus sites close in Maine. —11:00 pm: Final Maine caucus results expected.
Politics today:
The Maine caucuses are today.
Caucus sites will be open at different times between 1:00 pm and 8:00 pm ET.
24 pledged delegates are at stake. Results will be available beginning at 9:00 pm ET and the state party expects to have a final tally by 11:00 pm ET.
There are no entrance or exit polls in Maine, but it is possible that the Associated Press will declare a winner before the full vote is in.
John Kerry's huge victories in the Washington and Michigan caucuses allowed him to rack up the lion's share of the 204 delegates at stake Saturday.
Kerry has now collected around 19 percent of the 2,161 delegates needed to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.
Kerry is way out in front in the ABC News delegate estimate with 412 overall delegates. This total includes both pledged delegates who are allocated according to states' primary and caucus results, as well as "unpledged" delegates, known as "superdelegates," made up of state party leaders and activists, Democratic governors, members of congress, and former presidents, vice-presidents, and national party chairmen.
Of Note: Due to Reverend Sharpton's strong performance in the 13th and 14th Congressional Districts (Detroit) in Michigan, he won 7 delegates Saturday, which means he bested Senator John Edwards (who won 6 delegates) in the delegate race for the day.
Delegates so far (pledged delegates and superdelegates combined):
Kerry 412 (roughly 19% of the total delegates needed to secure the nomination) Dean 173 Edwards 112 Clark 82 Sharpton 11 Kucinich 2 Delegates needed to win the nomination: 2,161
President Bush has no public events today, while his appearance on "Meet the Press" is played back on tape.
He gets to be the Time magazine cover boy, with this headline: "Believe Him or Not — Does Bush Have A Credibility Gap?" As always, there's plenty of polling data for senior strategist Matt Dowd to look over.
Senator Kerry is in Virginia, where he will receive the endorsement of Gov. Mark Warner. He is skipping the party dinner in Tennessee.
Senator Edwards appears on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" and "Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace." He campaigns in Virginia and Tennessee today and will take part in tonight's Tennessee Democratic Party dinner.
Gen. Clark is in Tennessee in the morning, Wisconsin in the afternoon, and returns to Tennessee for the Democratic Party dinner.
Gov. Dean appears on CBS's "Face the Nation" and CNN's "Late Edition" and campaigns in Maine today.
Rep. Kucinich is in Maine.
The Sunday Note on This Week with George Stephanopoulos:
Today: why Senator Kerry may not be at a tremendous financial disadvantage if he faces President Bush in the general election. We add up the visible — and not so visible — potential pots of honey money.
Today's Top Stories:
Two key grafs from the Nagourney / Seeyle New York Times lead sum up a simple Saturday:
"The result left little doubt of Mr. Kerry's command of the Democratic field as the candidates head to a vote on Sunday in Maine, where Mr. Kerry is also considered strong, and in Tennessee and Virginia on Tuesday." LINK
"Dr. Dean's defeats on Saturday in two states that once were considered fertile ground for him came as his campaign lost the backing of a major union supporter, a turn of events that underlined the precipitous decline of his candidacy."
Dan Balz Notes that following his dual wins Kerry "immediately shifted his attention from his Democratic rivals to President Bush, signaling his readiness to challenge what he called the administration's "extreme" policies and saying, 'Democrats will not run from a fight about who represents mainstream America.'" LINKBalz gives appropriately lengthy treatment to Kerry's re-tooled stump speech, which reads like a pretty Shrumian general election battle cry. We wonder if the people who wrote the speech were happy with the way the Candidate delivered it.
All the papers paper their coverage of the Michigan caucuses and the Washington caucuses with banner headlines about Senator Kerry's strength: LINK ; LINK ; LINK and LINK; President Bush weighed on the minds of voters; LINK; LINK; a turnout of about 150,000 fell well short of the 400,000 once predicted in Michigan; LINK; there was a better turnout in Washington State; LINK; Two percent of the caucus sites were moved, according to the Michigan state Democratic Party. LINKThe Boston Globe 's Patrick Healy and Michael Kranish offer a must-read look at the "bold strategy" that fueled Kerry's comeback including the underrated Jim Margolis ads. LINK
Dean's AFSCME bye-bye makes the off-lead of Deb Orin's piece. LINK; the Daily News gives it singular play. LINKJodi Wilgoren in the New York Times heard from Dean aides who "said that at the meeting Mr. McEntee expressed concern about Dr. Dean's viability and the prospect that continuing his campaign could weaken the eventual Democratic nominee." LINK"One labor leader close to the campaign of Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts said Saturday that the painters union, the first to back Dr. Dean, would announce early this week that it was switching its support to Mr. Kerry. But that directly conflicted with Dr. Dean's statement that he continued to enjoy the union's support in Wisconsin."
The Los Angeles Times' Barabak and Gold post-mortem the good Doctor.
The AP's Ron Fournier: "yet another blow for a candidacy depleted by defeat." LINKNewsweek's Mark Miller and Evan Thomas look at the Kerry-Heinz merger and observe that Teresa was initially seen as "a loose cannon who would drive away voters. She was widely seen as imperious, long-winded and way too outspoken … . But as she traveled around the country … she has been charming and winning. Her three sons and his two daughters (all in their 20s and 30s) have, after an understandably bumpy merger, come together as attractive friends and step-siblings. The Heinz Kerry family is not exactly the Brady Bunch. But it is an interesting and involved family that has become a significant asset in the campaign." LINK
John "His to Lose" Kerry is on the cover of this week's US News & World Report-though the stories on the inside give more attention to Edwards than the cover would suggest.
Roger Simon looks at the competition between Kerry and Edwards and writes that their differences are not ones of policy but ones of style and background. Simon has lots of quotes from Edwards' media consultant David Axelrod who likes his chances if they can get the race down to a two man contest where the sunny Edwards can outshine the chilly Kerry. LINKDan Gilgoff looks at Kerry's record in the Senate and emphasizes his role as a "dogged" investigator. LINKAngie Marek writes that Edwards didn't pass too many bills in the Senate "but he sure was a star." LINKTerence Samuel reports that Democrats see hopeful signs in some of the early voting patterns of independent voters LINKKenneth T. Walsh writes that US. News has learned that the Bush camp has studied Clniton's "early ad barrage in 1996 and have concluded it framed the general election campaign to Clinton's great advantage. Bush wants to do the same thing--using some of his $150 million campaign war chest. The GOP ads will portray Bush as a decisive, results-oriented leader while the Democrats are billed as out of sync in their push for tax hikes, more social programs, and a less military-oriented foreign policy."LINKIn the Week in Review, Todd "Barone" Purdum Notes that "Mr. Kerry would be the first Northern elected president of either party since another senator from Massachusetts, John F. Kennedy, won in the long election night of 1960 with Lyndon B. Johnson's help." LINK"For all the homogenization of modern America, all the commercial communion of Starbucks and Wal-Mart, and all the connective power of Internet and Interstate, presidential politics remain, in many ways, the province of blue highways — and pronounced regional differences, pride and votes. The nominating process, with its quadrennial hopscotch from Iowa's pork tenderloins to New Hampshire's doughnuts and a dozen other local delicacies, amounts to a serial test of candidates' abilities to prevail across sectional divides."
Two of America's leading newspapers by the sheerest of coincidences profile the Senate career of John F. Kerry, both giving him much more positive reviews than they might have.
The New York Times ' Rosenbaum and Toner team up to write about three-count-em-three clicks piece on Kerry's Senate record and find "high-profile inquiries, not bills, dominate." LINKDo see: Terry Holt's line of attack against Kerry as a "extremely liberal" member of the Senate, the phrase "he is not known as a legislator's legislator," and Notes of votes for Gramm-Rudman-Hollings and against the Defense of Marriage Act. Also some interesting quotes from Warren Rudman, who calls Kerry a moderate Dem, and a few Dem foreign policy folks, including a former Kerry staffer.
The Washington Post 's Dewar and Balz report that in his first Senate campaign "Kerry talked a different language about national defense, denouncing President Ronald Reagan's military buildup and calling for cuts of about $50 billion in the Pentagon budget." LINKKerry is pushing back on being labeled too liberal for the country, the New York Times reports. "[Kerry] on Saturday challenged Republican assertions that he was too liberal for America with a sharp-edged characterization of his own: that President Bush was pursuing an "extremist" agenda that was "fundamentally at odds with our history and our hopes." LINK
Tom Edsall writes that while President Bush has been willing to anger "environmentalists, civil libertarians of the right and left, unions, trial lawyers and conservative advocates of free markets," the business company "almost always comes out a winner." LINKThe Washington Post 's Dana Milbank writes that President Bush and Vice President Cheney yesterday said the Iraq war was justified because Saddam Hussein could have made WMD, a "new rationale" that is "significantly more modest than earlier statements about the deposed Iraqi president's capabilities." LINKNewsweek's Tamara Lipper and Evan Thomas look at whether Cheney is dragging the president down. LINK
Also in the New York Times , Elisabeth Bumiller writes on the dubious distinction that is the Al Gore endorsement. Check out this graph:
"Mr. Gore has campaigned only sporadically for Dr. Dean. He traveled with him the day of the endorsement, then campaigned for two days in Iowa and a day in Michigan last week. But on Sunday, Mr. Gore is appearing in Nashville at a Democratic dinner, timed to the Tuesday primary, partly as Dr. Dean's surrogate, although the event is also billed as a celebration of "Tennessee leadership and values." Campaign officials say that Mr. Gore and Dr. Dean talk about once every 10 days."
And the Roy Neel and blind quotes below. LINK
The New York Times chief conservative correspondent David Kirkpatrick Notes the furor in con circles over the recent clarifying marriage opinion by the Massachusetts state court and concludes that it has become perhaps the single most important social issue for many grasstop social conservative organizations heading into an election year. LINK
The New York Times ' Nagorney wonders whether the campaign manager, "the subject of adoring magazine profiles, newspaper articles and documentaries," is overhyped. LINKCheck out Nick Baldick's multi-chrome visage!!!
Bob Novak's weekend column has news on: LINK
-- Kerry/Edwards veepstakes -- Clark's reassurances that he'll still be viable next week-- Josh Bolten's permission to Republicans in Congress: "Cut the budget all you want. We won't oppose you."
The Washington Post 's Shear wraps last night's Virginia Jefferson-Jackson dinner. LINKThe Washington Post 's Whoriskey looks toward Tuesday's Virginia primary. LINKThe Tennessean's Bonna de la Cruz reports that Kerry picked up the endorsement of popular former Gov. Ned McWherter, who said Kerry is the Democrat who can "stand up in this campaign and go toe to toe with the opposition and get elected president.'' During his Tennessee campaign stop, Kerry said: "I'm not worried about coming down South, talking about jobs, the environment, schools. I think it's them that's worried about coming down here.'' LINK
The Tennessean's Dwight Lewis urges his readers to check out Clark and Edwards have to say in person before the Tennessee primary. LINK
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel looks at the candidates' records on foreign policy. LINK
The New York Times says it's tough for politically active business leaders to balance work and politics in an election year. LINKThe Washington Post 's Paul Farhi tries to calm those writing that the high turnout in the primaries signifies a fired-up Democratic electorate, Noting that "it takes a bit of glass-half-full thinking to describe voter turnout this year as 'high' or even a 'record.'" LINK
John Tierney Notes that the media's hypothesis about frontrunners was wrong this year, and then makes fun of Joe Trippi on MSNBC. LINKThe Times editorial page wants more money for HAVA. LINK
The Los Angeles Times looks at those TMS commissions paid by the Dean campaign. LINK
Wes Clark's official papers live a day longer in the Times . LINKAnd the Post . LINK
The Washington Post 's Leibovich on Senator Joseph Lieberman, the graceful loser. LINKFor Rudy Giuliani, it'll be a 2006 gubernatorial bid or a 2008 presidential bid — not both, according to the New York Post 's Seifman. LINK