The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Jan. 4—
, 2004 -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—8:00 am: Gen. Wesley Clark hosts a pancake breakfast in Manchester, N.H.—12:00 pm: Rep. Dick Gephardt holds a "Countdown to Victory" event in Dallas Center, Iowa —12:10 pm: Sen. John Edwards jogs with supporters in Des Moines, Iowa —1:00 pm: Gen. Clark attends a "Women for Wes" event in Manchester, N.H.—3:00 pm: Des Moines Register's Democratic presidential candidates debate in Johnston, Iowa—6:45 pm: Sen. Kerry campaigns at an American Legion Post in Indianola, Iowa—6:45 pm: Gov. Dean holds a "Caucus for Change" event in Toledo, Iowa—7:00 pm: Sen. Edwards campaigns in Knoxville, Iowa —7:00 pm: Gen. Clark holds a "Conversation with Clark" in Nashua, N.H.—7:45 pm: Rep. Gephardt holds a roundtable on trade, CAFTA and the Red River Valley Sugar Industry in Moorhead, Minn. —8:30 pm: Sen. Kerry campaigns in Knoxville, Iowa—9:00 pm: Gov. Dean holds a "Caucus for Change" event in Parkersburg, Iowa—9:00 pm: Rep. Gephardt holds a rally with supporters in Fargo, N.D.
NEWS SUMMARY
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean leads the Democratic presidential field in the important battle for so-called "superdelegates," according to a new ABC News estimate — the first survey of its kind done this election cycle.
Dean has amassed approximately 30 superdelegates more than his closest opponent.
The ABC News superdelegate estimate as of Sunday January 4, 2004 10:00 am ET:
Howard Dean 90John Kerry 59Dick Gephardt 48Wesley Clark 24Joe Lieberman 20John Edwards 16Carol Moseley Braun 4Al Sharpton 3Dennis Kucinich 2
While there have been previous canvasses of congressional endorsements and one or two of DNC members — both of which make up a portion of the superdelegates — this ABC News exclusive is the first time any news organization has compiled an overall tally of the current delegate race — made up of commitments from the party activists and leaders, local elected officials, current Democratic governors and members of Congress, and former presidents, vice presidents, congressional leaders, and DNC chairs.
All are, under party rules, automatic, unelected, and voting delegates to the convention in Boston this summer.
These delegates can choose whomever they wish for the nomination, and can change their minds and public positions on whom they support as often as they wish before the summer.
Given the categories which comprise this group, support in the superdelegate community is one sign of support within the Democratic establishment for Dean's candidacy. This might surprise some observers, and alarm his rivals, since Dean has waged a rhetorical war against the party and its leaders, many of whom dread the prospect of his nomination.
Not one voter has yet to attend a caucus meeting or enter a voting booth to express his or her preference in this year's Democratic presidential nomination contest. However, the race is well underway and the candidates have begun to rack up some of this key support in their quest for the nomination.
The political press place a lot of attention on fundraising, polls, media attention, and momentum, but in the end there is only one way to secure the Democratic nomination for president. The candidate who wins 2,161 delegate votes by July's convention will be the Democratic Party's nominee to challenge President Bush.
And as in many other categories, Howard Dean is out in front of his competitors in the race to collect delegates — and he's also the Time and Newsweek cover boy this week for the second time each.
There are two types of delegates who will attend the convention. Pledged delegates are required to support a candidate based on the results of their home state's caucuses or primary. Unpledged delegates — these superdelegates — are free to vote for the candidate of their choosing.
Many of the publicly committed superdelegates hail from the home state of the candidates they are supporting.
DNC delegate breakdown:
Pledged delegates at stake 3,520Unpledged or "Superdelegates" at stake 801Total delegate votes at stake 4,321Delegate votes needed for nomination 2,161
As you can see, the superdelegate votes at stake make up a significant portion (37 percent) of the total delegate votes needed to secure the nomination and therefore the campaigns (some better than others) have been diligently courting these superdelegates for quite a while. However, many of these Democratic Party activists and leaders are still uncommitted to any candidate.
The ABC News Political Unit contacted all of the superdelegates to inquire about their presidential preferences.
Superdelegates who reported to us that they are firmly committed to a candidate and whose support the campaign is aware of, were added to that candidate's tally.
In addition we checked and included all explicit public announcements of support made by any superdelegate.
We have also spoke to the delegate trackers in each campaign to determine if our count is similar to their count.
Because superdelegates are unpledged, they are under no obligation to state their preferences publicly before the convention. Counting superdelegates is an inexact science, but this is the best estimate of the current state of play according to the superdelegate responses we've received.
To date, roughly one-third of superdelegates are committed to a candidate. Of course, people do change their minds as the results of the early caucuses and primaries become known, and as candidates drop out of the race.
We will continue to track these superdelegates and continuously update the totals.
(Note to Kate O'Connor: yes, Kate, in some ways this IS bigger than leading the Invisible Primary Ratings.)
And this morning, The Note goes visual, as a new feature on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos."
Each weekend "This Week" will be bringing you news on the campaigns from our campaign reporters out on the trail, as well as the best analysis you have come to expect from the ABC News Political Unit. Tune in on Sunday mornings and we'll tell you what you need to know and what it means, and show you what you may have missed.
And stay tuned: maybe the Googling monkeys will get a walk-on or two.
The Des Moines Register hosts a debate with seven of the Democratic candidates today. Clark and Sharpton are sitting this one out. The Register's editor, Paul Anger, will moderate the event, with Register columnist David Yepsen and NPR's Michelle Norris asking questions.
This will be the first debate since Saddam Hussein's capture. There is expected to be a heavy agricultural component to the questioning.
The two-hour debate will have seven rounds of questions and closing statements — by far the most extensive format yet for a Democratic debate this cycle. The rounds will include questions from the moderator, the panelists, and readers, as well as candidates questioning one another.
The Des Moines Register 's has beaucoup coverage of its own debate:
--Tom Beaumont has a thumb-nail sketch of what the Democratic candidates need to do in today's event. LINK--Lynn Okamoto on debate prep. LINK--Highlights from the debates that it has sponsored over the past two decades. LINK--A rundown of television coverage. LINK
Senator Joe Lieberman appears on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" and participates in the Des Moines Register 's debate.
Gov. Howard Dean participates in the Des Moines Register 's debate and campaigns in Toledo and Parkersburg, Iowa. Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi appears on "Fox News Sunday." Also appearing to discuss Dean will be RNC Chair Ed Gillespie.
Rep. Dick Gephardt participates in the Des Moines Register 's debate and campaigns in Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota. p>Senator John Kerry appears on "Face the Nation," participates in the Des Moines Register 's debate and campaigns in Iowa.
Gen. Wesley Clark appears on "Meet the Press" and campaigns in New Hampshire. On Monday, he will deliver an address laying out a major domestic-policy proposal.
Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun participates in the Des Moines Register 's debate.
The Rev. Al Sharpton campaigns in South Carolina.
Headlines:
Dean's appearances on the covers of Time and Newsweek are sure to raise the man more campaign cash (and maybe attract more superdelegates).
Here's the Newsweek package:
--Howard Fineman reviews the familiar Dean gaffes and changes of stance. LINK--Fineman also writes up a Q&A with Dean on topics ranging from threat of battle to Osama bin Laden to Jesus. LINK--Eleanor Clift on Dean. LINK--Richard Wolffe on Dems and foreign policy. LINK--Jennifer Barrett on the president's poll numbers. LINK--Evan Thomas and Daniel Klaidman on Clark's campaign as the "Un-Dean." LINK--Laura Houston finds folks who say "no thanks" to the Internet candidate. LINK--Jonathan Alter on Dems beating up on one another. LINK
The Fineman piece includes a section with a bit of investigative work on Dean's acceptance of drug company speaking fees as governor.
All the candidates who want to be the Dean Alternative have oppo shops who are sitting on more stuff that they COULD drop between now and the Iowa caucuses.
Only heaven knows how much of it will see the light of day; how the Major Media will play it; how Dean will handle it; and how the voters might react.
Time's package isn't on the web as of this writing, but the cover story asks the same question that Matea Gold and Matthew Dowd both want answered, "Who is the real Howard Dean?"
There's also a seemingly pro-Dean poll, with this typo-addled lead in the press release:
"By a small margin, Howard Dean would the closest race against President George W. Bush if the election were held today, with Bush getting 51 percent of the vote v. Dean's 46 percent, according to a TIME/CNN Poll."
Time's Karen Tumulty reviews four charges that Dean's opponents make about him. At this writing, the story on the Web for subscribers only. We previewed it and found this from Tumulty: (1) that Dean is an "accident waiting to happen," (2) that he is just not like likable, (3) that he is "too liberal," and (4) that he is just not electable — and then gets Dean to explain why they are "dead wrong." Here's the link for you subscribers: LINK
The AP's John Solomon and David Gram have their latest research on Gov. Dean and the Yankee nuclear power plant. LINK
Great shoeleather work, boys — walking all the way over to the transom and all!!
The New York Times ' Robert Pear reports that with the State of the Union address just over two weeks away, the Bush Administration is calling the 2005 fiscal year budget a way to cut the deficit in five years by slowing the growth of spending while the economy improves. And there will be more tax cuts. LINKLet's see if the Democrats waive the Pear clip around during the debate.
Tom Raum of the AP looks at Bush v. Dean. LINK
Pear teams with Raymond Hernandez to report that state officials are casting a wary eye toward the new Medicare drug benefit, trying to figure out how to stretch or reconfigure state programs to keep people covered. LINKThe Washington Post 's Mike Allen looks at President Bush's proposal to protect the Social Security taxes paid by undocumented immigrants and to help them gain legal status.LINK
Let' see if the Democrats waive the Allen clip around during the debate.
The St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith reports on the really big effort that the Bush-Cheney 04 campaign is putting together in Florida. Thousands! LINKThe Boston Globe 's Tom Oliphant shares what history thinks of "reelection." LINK
The AP's Jim Abrams reports that some folks on the Hill are concerned about the White House's commitment to states' rights. LINKThe AP reports that the president is encouraging his critics to cut-it-out with all the No Child Left Behind yapping. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Elizabeth Shogren writes that the Bush Administration is making time for the "hook and bullet" set. LINK
The New York Times ' James Traub looks at foreign policy beliefs in the Democratic Party. LINKAnd the Boston Globe 's Anne Kornblut writes about how foreign policy is surprisingly such an issue in 2004. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein looks past Feb. 3 to the mid-February contests in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Maine and Washington and writes that Dean's advantage in those states could give him an "insurmountable" lead over his opponents. LINK
The Des Moines Register 's Tom Beaumont writes that Democrats are united in their disdain for President Bush but they are divided on how to beat them. LINK
Jeff Zeleny of the Chicago Tribune looks at Dean's attempts to build a better, more activist mousetrap. LINK
The New York Times ' Jodi Wilgoren and the Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei write about Dean getting in touch with his spiritual side on the stump. LINK and LINKThe Boston Globe 's Susan Milligan profiles Dean's financier, who helps him get in touch with his money side. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Richard Serrano looks at Dean's journey of self-discovery that took him to ski slopes, Wall Street, medical school and eventually into government. LINK
The Union Leader's Pat Hammond reports that New Hampshire Democrats loyal to Dean "disagree with the presidential hopeful's conjecture that hundreds of thousands of his newly politically-involved supporters will stay away from the polls if he doesn't emerge from the National Democratic Convention with his party's nod." LINK
The Boston Globe 's Kornblut and Pat Healy report on Saturday's exchange of jabs in Iowa among the three Dems "vying for victory." LINK
The New York Times ' Political Points takes a historical view of Dean's chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, as well as the "virtual trip to Iowa" game on the Governor's Web site. LINKThe New York Times ' Adam Nagourney got some face time with Peter Yarrow of Peter, Paul and Mary, who endorsed Senator Kerry even while saying that Kerry's Iraq war votes had hurt his candidacy. LINKNagourney's narrative fails to describe David Wade's facial expression throughout the Yarrow-Nagourney-Beaumont-Balz-Zeleny-Tell scrum, or the simultaneous Wade-Shrum-Kerry caucus!
The Des Moines Register 's Tom Beaumont reports Yarrow has supported Kerry since they met during a protest of the Vietnam War. LINKThe Los Angeles Times has Howard Dean clapping along then trying to slip out while folk singer (and Kerry supporter) Yarrow strummed out the civil rights tune, "Have You Been to Jail for Justice." LINK
The Boston Globe 's Healy reports on the Shaheens' support for Kerry. LINK
Billy kicker quote alert!!
Senator Edwards' gets a bunch of on-the-trail write-ups today from the New York Times ' Randal Archibold, the Washington Post 's Vanessa Williams, the AP's Holly Ramer, and the Los Angeles Times' Scott Martelle, who all Note his emphasis on optimism. LINK, LINK, LINK, and LINK
There's also a piece today by the Washington Post 's Hanna Rosin profiling an Edwards' volunteer who's also optimistic. LINK
The Washington Post editorial board sizes up Dick Gephardt in three areas: his position on Iraq (consistent and responsible); trade (too protectionist); and his fiscal sense (the large implications of his health care plan). LINK
The Union Leader's Jerry Miller writes that Clark's military background earns him praise from vets. LINK
The Washington Post 's David Von Drehle writes that the Kucinich campaign's steadfast fundraising efforts focused on the left wing of the Democratic base may have put his campaign in a position to prove many of his critics wrong. LINKThe Sharpton campaign says Rev. Sharpton has raised enough money to qualify for more than $100,000 in matching funds. LINKThose of you who complain that the presidential field is like a bunch of high schoolers need to read this great piece by the Boston Globe 's Suzanne Sataline. LINK
The New York Times ' Matt Bai delves into the world of the offspring of presidential contenders. LINKThe immature boys at the Hotline will surely focus on the photo showing a candidate offspring's bra strap.