The Note
W A S H I N G T O N August 26—
, 2003 -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—9:00 am: CBO releases budget and deficit outlook, D.C.—9:00 am: Congressman Dennis Kucinich addresses the United Electrical Workers Union convention, Pittsburgh —11:00 am: House Democrats react to budget numbers, D.C.—11:00 am: Senator John Kerry attends an event with veterans at the Iowa Vietnam War Memorial, Des Moines —11:00 am: Governor Howard Dean addresses the Communications Workers of America convention, Chicago —11:30 am: Arnold Schwarzenegger appears on Eric Hogue's radio show, Sacramento—12:00 pm: Governor Dean attends a rally with supporters at Navy Pier, Chicago —12:00 pm: First Lady Sharon Davis attends press conference commemorating Women's Equality Day, Beverly Hills—12:30 pm: NOW's political action committee holds a press conference to announce their endorsement of Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun for president, D.C. —12:30 pm: Congressman Dick Gephardt holds conference call on the President's visit to Missouri—12:30 pm: Senator John Edwards holds a town hall meeting, Columbia, S.C. —12:30 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman addresses the Communications Workers of America convention, Chicago —1:10 pm: President Bush addresses Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser luncheon, St. Paul, Minn. —1:00 pm: California Federation of Labor begins convention on the recall, Manhattan Beach —1:00 pm: Sharon Davis attends press conference denouncing recall and Prop. 54, Los Angeles—2:00 pm: State Senator Tom McClintock holds a press conference to unveil his new television ad, Sacramento —3:00 pm: Tom McClintock appears on CNN with Judy Woodruff —4:15 pm: President Bush makes remarks to the American Legion Convention, St. Louis —5:00 pm: Senator Edwards holds a town hall meeting, Greenville, S.C. —5:00 pm: Sharon Davis joins leaders of women's groups to discuss recall, Sacramento—7:30 pm: Senator Lieberman attends a fundraising reception with supporters, Glencoe, Ill. —9:00 pm: Governor Dean holds the "Dean on 42nd Street" rally in Bryant Park, New York City —10:00 pm: Governor Davis holds the second of his "Conversations with Californians," San Francisco
NEWS SUMMARY
Those who run or cover campaigns who live exclusively by the maxim "all politics is local" and forget "the political IS the personal" are, frankly, nutso.
In a "normal" year, the last week of August is indeed time for the "personal," but that is not why this will be your last Note until next Tuesday.
With the California recall in its sprint; with Howard Dean appearing at his own Bryant Park fashion show tonight; with the president out on the road in what the Eastern press lives to call "the heartland"; with September riddled with Democratic presidential candidate debates and the announcements of two hopefuls; with Bill Clinton going to both Cali AND Iowa next month; with the third-quarter fundraising deadline looming; with the SEIU's cattle call upon us; with the opposition/left-leaning press lining up "against" the White House and the president's re-elect (just the way 41, 43, and their advisers always have known would happen) and with so, so much more, this is hardly a slow end-of-summer time.
And that's before we confront the fact that Big Casino politics rise to a whole new symbolic level today with the new CBO deficit estimate in the $500 billion neighborhood, and somewhere Everett Dirksen isn't smiling. LINKWhat Cruz Bustamante's political brain, Richie Ross, in the Los Angeles Times today calls (in a slightly different context) — "enjoyable speculation for the smarty-pants and the professional observers" — is not EXACTLY the mission of The Note, but it gets much closer than those who call us a "political blog" ever find themselves.
Amongst the things we will be doing over the next week as we don't write even the mini-Notes you have been getting is working on that "personal" stuff, including psychological analysis of the following political pairs:
1. Gray Davis and Cruz Bustamante.
2. Mark Barabak and Ron Brownstein.
3. Jim Jordan and Joe Trippi.
4. Jim Jordan and the person who writes the Kerry blog under the name "Jim Jordan."
5. Karl Rove and the Republican Leadership Council.
6. Senator Grassley and Congressman Thomas.
7. Cathy Decker and her giant reporting team.
8. Mary Hart and Josh Mankiewicz.
9. Sean Walsh and K.B. Forbes.
10. Terry McAuliffe and Gray Davis.
As you can imagine, writing those up is going to take a heck of a lot of time.
Plus, we have had numerous requests to make sure the Redskins-Jets game LINK
is available in the press and green rooms at the Albuquerque debate, and getting monkeys to shift from Googling to laying cable turns out not to be as easy as it would seem (and not just because it involves getting them into a new union).
So, here's what's happening today, and y'all are on your own until September 2, when you will get a Note that will knock your proverbial socks off, complete with a September preview that will blow your mind (and contain no clichés):
The president will attend a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser at the RiverCentre in St. Paul, Minnesota. Later, he'll be in St. Louis to address the 85th Annual American Legion National Convention.
Senator Kerry will attend a veterans' event at the Iowa Vietnam War Memorial in Des Moines today.
Governor Dean finishes his Sleepless Summer Tour today in Chicago and New York City. He'll address the Communications Workers of America this morning and hold a rally on Navy Pier. Tonight, Dean heads The City for a rally in Bryant Park.
Senator Edwards holds town hall meetings today in Columbia and Greenville, South Carolina.
Senator Lieberman addresses the Communication Workers of America's convention in Chicago and attends a reception for donors at a private home in Glencoe, Illinois.
Ambassador Braun will pick up the endorsement of the National Organization for Women's PAC and the National Women's Political Caucus today at a 12:30 pm ET press conference at the National Press Club in D.C.
Congressman Kucinich is in Pittsburgh today for the United Electrical Workers Union convention.
Reverend Sharpton has meetings in Los Angeles today.
Congressman Gephardt has no public events announced for today, except for a press conference call to talk about the president's Show Me stop.
Senator Graham has no public events scheduled for today.
California recall, Arnold:
The San Francisco Chronicle's Marinucci and Wildermuth predict GOP loyalist outrage after Arnold told "a conservative talk radio host Monday that he would be 'going to Sacramento as an independent … '" LINK
"Schwarzenegger, a registered Republican, made the comment to host Hugh Hewitt in one of two back-to-back interviews on conservative talk radio shows."
"'I want to be a governor that is for the people, for everyone, no matter what your age is, your political (affiliation),' he said."
"The actor's campaign staff immediately scrambled to put a different spin on the potentially controversial comments."
"'He means he's not beholden to anyone. He didn't mean he won't go up (to Sacramento) as a Republican,' said Sean Walsh, a spokesman for the actor. 'He'll be independent of special interests. They can't own him.'"
Eager-listening ABC News' Schifrin says that the actor reiterated his main mantras in his two appearances: that Davis and his people have overspent, not undertaxed, and that Arnold would pass a constitutional amendment capping spending, repeal the car-tax, and revamp workers' compensation laws; and that Arnold "doesn't owe anybody anything" and will not be beholden to special interest groups.
We wonder if Arnold's Bustamante comments would clear the Ueberroth bar for no-negative campaigning.
Schwarzenegger is walking in the middle, both "philosophically and symbolically," according to the Los Angeles Times' Mark Z. Barabak, which is "precarious." The actor-business has higher negative personal ratings than people thought he might, and he's facing "voter skepticism" from both the right and the left. LINK
"Now, many conservatives are looking to McClintock, dubious of Schwarzenegger and his studied lack of specifics. McClintock is firmly anti-abortion, anti-gay rights and supportive of gun ownership, a profile that fits a good 15% to 20% of the state Republican electorate."
The New York Times ' Charlie LeDuff calls Schwarzenegger an outsider candidate with an insider cadre of advisers, which may explain the dissonance between the message he wants out there and the message that actually gets out there, at least to smarty-pants and the professional observers. LINK
The Chronicle on the money chase (which Arnold suggested he wouldn't be part of, but is, anyway): "Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is getting the financial help he promised he would never need in his race for governor as California business interests poured $788,000 into his campaign committees over the weekend." LINK
Larry Kudlow in the New York Post decides that Arnold is up to snuff, able to sketch the Laffer curve on any napkin.
California recall, the Democrats:
The San Jose Mercury News reports that Cruz Bustamante is "exploiting" a loophole in Proposition 34 to raise "big money" for his "Yes on Bustamante" campaign.LINK"Despite a voter-approved measure that was supposed to keep big money donations out of California politics, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is exploiting a gaping loophole in the law that will allow him to collect up to $4 million in large sums from a handful of special-interest donors."
"The leading Democrat in the recall race has already received his first big check — $300,000 — from the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation, a San Diego-area Indian tribe with casino interests. The contribution, which the campaign disclosed Sunday, went to Bustamante's 2002 re-election committee, which isn't subject to the $21,200 fundraising limit established by Proposition 34."
"The state's powerful labor federation meets today to take up the contentious issue of whether to support Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as a backup candidate in the recall election of Gov. Gray Davis — a move that, if it occurs, would mark both a shift in strategy and a significant lift for Bustamante," the Los Angeles Times reports. LINK
"But even as many Democratic leaders have coalesced behind a hedge-the-bets strategy, pairing a 'no' on the recall vote with a 'yes' for the lieutenant governor's backup candidacy, labor has remained fractured."
"Five hundred voting delegates are expected to be on hand in Manhattan Beach as the California State Federation of Labor makes its formal recommendations for the Oct. 7 ballot. The delegates represent about 1,300 unions, many of which remain divided over how to defeat the recall effort without risking the election of a new governor whose policies would be hostile to labor's interests."
The Los Angeles Times' Gold on Bustamante's biggest long-term weakness: his "common service" with Davis "could link the two men in the eyes of voters who have little fondness for Davis." LINK
"Davis, who unsuccessfully fought to keep other Democrats off the ballot, has thus far urged the public to vote no on the first ballot question — whether he should be recalled. Although he has said Bustamante is the best candidate to replace him if it comes to that, he has not endorsed any course of action on the second part of the ballot. He might do that 10 days before the election, Davis said."
"So far, Bustamante has appeared ambivalent about how much he wants to associate himself with the sitting governor. In the last week, he has implied that Davis is arrogant and pointed out that the two men have not spoken in weeks. But he has so far declined to distinguish himself further from Davis, deflecting questions about whether he would bring the same approach and policies to the office as Davis has."
Several former Davis donors are now giving money to other candidates. LINK
Harrison Sheppard of the Los Angeles Daily News writes up Cruz Bustamante's "moment of truth." LINK
The Los Angeles Times look at the voting patterns of young Latino males. LINK
California recall, the Governor:
The AP story on Davis's cadre of advisers contains this precious quote: "'When I think of Garry South, I think of Luca Brasi from 'The Godfather,' said Jack Pitney, a political scientist from Claremont McKenna College. 'When Luca Brasi left the scene, the Godfather was in trouble — he had to rely on Fredo as his bodyguard.'"LINK
Sacramento lawmakers delay drive for tax-swap plan, reports Hanh Kim Quach of the Orange County Register. LINK
"Key lawmakers said Monday that they will shelve plans until next year to swap the newly tripled vehicle license fee with higher income taxes on wealthy Californians and higher cigarette taxes."
"Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg, chairman of the Appropriations Committee, said the chances of raising taxes might be better next year depending on how voters respond to a ballot initiative that would lower the threshold for the Legislature to raise taxes. Right now, it takes a two-thirds vote to increase taxes, but an initiative on the March ballot would lower the threshold to 55 percent."
"Also, an initiative drive is under way that would ask voters as early as November 2004 to abolish the vehicle license fees altogether."
California recall, the rest of the field:
Peter Ueberroth visited the Sacramento Bee on Monday. His comments are available on the Sac Bee's website. LINK
National security politics:
The Washington Post 's Dana Milbank leads the paper with his take on a perceived/actual Administration organized push-back on domestic assaults on the Iraq policy. LINK
Dean:
Jill Lawrence of USA Today calls 'em as she sees 'em in a front-page "Cover story" that is a lovely look at the state of the Dean campaign, with an accentuation on the positive — casting Dean as becoming both more presidential AND more focused on taking on the president on foreign policy. LINK
She gets extra points for taking on Jim Jordan's famous "other campaigns have gotten a head start" blog entry.
No news, no mention of Dean's still-shocking flip-flops on Social Security and campaign finance, and perhaps the piece is just what the Doctor ordered to get that bat up to $1,000,000.
Reminding us once again that Dean hasn't been asked about hundreds (thousands, really) of really important issues (because reporters insist on asking him the same 14 questions over and over again), the Miami Herald has Dr. Dean admitting new flexibility on how to deal with Castro. LINKLieberman:
Joe's Janitors' Job Tour opens in New Haven to a boffo Steven Greenhouse New York Times review. LINKKerry:
Rising (super)star David Halbfinger of the New York Times looks at John Kerry's increasing reference to his 'Nam days, and has Senators McCain and Hagel warning that explicit references to military service aren't necessarily the right play. LINK
Halbfinger doesn't come right out and say it, but his tone suggests that the Bay Stater probably shouldn't use as a tag line in his spots "Vote for John Kerry — he's killed people."
The Boston Globe looks at DJ Demander's search for a rock anthem to play "Don't Stop Thinking about Tomorrow" for the Kerry campaign. LINK
Iowa:
Dave Yepsen is pro-air conditioning, which makes us pro-Yepsen. LINK
ABC 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
Congressman Gibbons' decision not to run for the Senate is about the best news that Democrats who dream of Nevada's electoral votes could ever get. LINKJohn Podhoretz's New York Post column is a study in pacific calm as he points out that the president is politically potent, and he joins in The Note in being mystified at the press' willful disregard of the presidential use of the word "major" aboard the aircraft carrier. LINK
Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times gets on the front page with a "Washington" dateline and a compassionate conservative report card on the Bush Administration, and our read is that the her most charitable grade is an "incomplete." LINK
The crack 43rd Street team of Becker and Andrews looks at the politics of China trade, and one need not make a single reporting phone call (Sometimes we like to pretend we work in cable news … .) to know that this is one issue the White House political shop is all over. LINK
Jeanne Cummings gets all mushy-headed in the Wall Street Journal about "reform" efforts to change the way presidential campaigns are funded.
The GAO gets all breathless-a over the administration's energy policy LINK and LINK, as does Paul Krugman over that EPA report on New York City. LINK
The Washington Post checks in on ANWR LINK
, and the Wall Street Journal fronts Administration efforts to "speed gas drilling" in the Rockies, and what the environmental left thinks about that.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal looks at the political pros and cons of the president's upcoming steel tariff decision (without reference to those legacy costs).
Politics:Far and away our favorite part of the New York Times must-read-for-Debra-DeShong profile of Bob Torricelli is this quote from Jamie Fox (the former Torch aide now working for Governor McGreevey):
"'My contacts with Bob these days tend to revolve around good restaurants or home contractor recommendations,' Mr. Fox said in a written statement." LINK
Malibu's Danny Goldberg puts the blame for the decline of the Democratic Party on the propensity of Gore and Lieberman to talk about "Dingell-Norwood" and we don't totally disagree. LINK
It takes a lot of us to write about Jonah Goldberg, but he adds his voice to the increasingly common (but still insane) argument that the left is more over-the-top about 43 than the right was about 42.
"The activist base of the Democratic Party today strikes me as demonstrably more paranoid and irrational about George Bush than even the most 'obsessed' of my conservative brethren ever were," about Clinton, he writes, and, well, we suggest he have dinner with his mom and then check back with us. LINK
USA Today 's Jim Drinkard finds that while white men can't jump, they can in fact give — dominating political giving more than your typical "Meet the Press" political roundtable. LINKNo mention of the monkeys. LINK
And they are pissed off.
Big Casino budget politics:
David Rogers of the Wall Street Journal has Senator Grassley pulling his staff out of talks with the Bill Thomas-led House group over rural health matters as part of the Medicare conferencing debate, although the CW remains that all this will get worked out.