The Note

W A S H I N G T O N July 3—
, 2003 -- There is a certain type of Note reader (and a certain newbie Note writer) who goes all ga-ga when we make the slightest Springsteen reference.

2003 Note Archives, updated weekly.

Click here for The ABCNEWS Political Unit's exclusive major futures calendar and today's daybook.

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NEWS SUMMARY

So our holiday gift to you is a mini-Note today, a break from The Note tomorrow, and a Boss reminder that America is celebrating its independence and freedom this holiday weekend.

President Bush is in DC today; Dayton, Ohio tomorrow at the U.S. Air Force Museum, and back in the District for the weekend.

As for the Democrats, New Hampshire takes its rightful place at the center of the political universe this elongated weekend.

The AP's Holly Ramer curtain-raises the weekend, and looks at the Granite State's economic and political milieu. LINK

The highlights are two New Hampshire parades; one in Amherst at 10 am ET Friday, and other in neighboring Merrimack, at noon ET Friday.

Several of the candidates plan to march.

(Candidates be warned: The Note will be watching, with Googling monkeys in the trees along the parade route).

Also Friday, Governor Dean opens his Nashua campaign office; he attends "house parties and fundraisers" on Saturday.

Senator Lieberman visits the Strawbery Banke Museum Celebration after the parades; he has several other events across the state.

Senator Graham attends picnics all afternoon; and does a "work day" as a conductor on the Conway Scenic Railroad Saturday.

Senator Edwards will spend the 4th in North Carolina.

Most of the candidates will take Saturday and Sunday off. (Lieberman, Dean and Graham will remain in New Hampshire Saturday; Lieberman stays on Sunday).

On Sunday, President Bush celebrates his 57th birthday.

As for today, it's all about money — the economy and candidate fundraising.

With today's unemployment rate figure climbing to 6.4 percent, the New York Times ' David Leonhardt has a must-read on the Bush job creation/destruction record put nicely into historical context. LINK

The story's lead ("For George W. Bush, the race has begun to escape comparisons to Herbert Hoover.") is going to play right into the hands of those Democratic presidential candidates who have actually figured out that talking about the Bush-Cheney-Evans Economy is probably politically smart.

The Times also puts Adam Nagourney and Mike Janofsky on the front page with a fundraising/Dean wrap-up. LINKThe pair posit that Dick Gephardt may well come in fifth in money raised this quarter, which got us to pulling out a file with this March 17 Roll Call quote from Gephardt's tan-rested-and-ready spokesman:

"Erik Smith, a spokesman for Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.), said 'this is a very important test' and it would be 'insincere' for any candidate to argue otherwise. Smith noted that the June 30 deadline may do more to separate the wheat from the chaff in the presidential field. 'The first quarter is the price of admission,' he said, 'but the second quarter will separate the serious players.'"

Given how Gephardt seems to have done, we can't help but see that as, ah, rookie spin. LINKHere's today's California Recall Summary:

--Recall organizers claim to have submitted 924,847 unverified signatures to county elections officials. This puts them over the 897,158 threshold.

--California's credit rating could be downgraded to junk bond status.

--A group of California Republicans have launched "Republicans Against the Recall" and claim Representative Darrell Issa is none too pleased.

National Security politics:Dana Milbank and Vernon Loeb of The Washington Post examine the Democratic fallout of President Bush's "Bring 'Em On" statement. LINKNot surprisingly, presidential hopefuls Howard Dean and Richard A. Gephardt jumped into the fray. Gephardt "said he had heard 'enough of the phony, macho rhetoric' from Bush."

Is there any chance the president will lose the PR war on the issue of whether his macho war comments are too over-the-top? With his tough-guy, make-my-day rhetoric, the president is starting to sound almost as alpha male as Joe Trippi.

The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein does his version of the story the Wall Street Journal did yesterday — will the war in Iraq twist and turn in a way that hurts the president's political standing? LINK

Ron's judgment is less negative about the POTUS than the WSJ was (and without any Matt Dowd on the record!).

As they say in the news dodge: only time will tell.

As the president contemplates sending troops to keep the peace in Liberia, The Washington Post 's Jim Hoagland wonders, if Bush asks the U.S.' global friends for help, will anyone step up? The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, in response to President Bush's "tough talk" on Iraq, Congressman Gephardt said, "'Enough of the phony, macho rhetoric[ … ]We need a serious attempt to develop a postwar plan for Iraq and not more shoot-from-the-hip one-liners.'" LINK

Walter Shapiro reports that the Iraqi war may "signal the gradual abandonment of the blustery go-it-alone diplomacy that has been an unsettling hallmark of Bush's presidency." LINK

He Ain't Heavy: The Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin looks at the Hutchinson family (former Senator Tim and former Representative Asa) ties in lobbying and Homeland Security. LINK

Bush-Cheney re-elect:

Miamian Mark Wallace; new Bush deputy campaign manager:

'''He's effective, loyal and keeps his head down, and that's what we look for in the people we hire,' Mehlman said in a telephone interview." LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

The August issue of Esquire magazine doesn't hit stands until next Tuesday, but The Note is going to provide you with some cool details today.

Over the course of the last two months or so, photographer Michael Edwards has been on a mission to capture the Democratic candidates for president in their natural habitats. He went into their homes or the homes of their family members and started photographing the candidates interacting with those closest to them.

Seven of the nine Democrats participated, though Howard Dean was "adamant about not including his family in the portrait." As of our deadline, we still haven't heard why Congressman Kucinich and Ambassador Moseley Braun aren't in the spread.

Note to those readers who like to look at the ladies: You might have a tough time getting beyond the JLO cover shot to find the candidates.

Here are the highlights:

A relaxed Dick Gephardt cooking his special "party chicken" in his kitchen with his wife and two daughters.

A gorgeous Jack and Emma Claire Edwards jumping around in their basement playroom with their barefoot sister and mother and gleeful father looking on. Apparently, Senator and Mrs. Edwards wanted to keep the closet doors shut for the photo out of concern that all the stuffed animals might look excessive.

A storytelling Bob Graham surrounded by triplet granddaughters while Mrs. Graham is said to be whistling "Hail to the Chief" off camera.

Rev. Al Sharpton and wife Kathy at Sylvia's restaurant in Harlem for a very hurried meal.

Senator Lieberman with his family at his son Matt's house playing that old missing finger trick.

John and Teresa Heinz Kerry sharing a chair in their beautiful Washington home, where the Senator apparently has a tough time removing the phone from his ear.

Howard Dean (sans family as Noted above) at his campaign headquarters in Burlington with tons of "interns" surrounding him. We'd love a complete key as to who everyone is … . Other than web guru Mathew Gross.

The spread is quite amazing and it runs under the banner question, "Is there a giant killer in the house?" It certainly doesn't get at an answer. In fact, offering an alternative, the article immediately following the photo spread is a Tom Junod profile of Retired General Wesley Clark, complete with a dripping wet photo of the former General in a pool. He's still not a candidate and the article doesn't break much new ground, but a good read nonetheless.

The AP's Will Lester reports that Gephardt, Dean and Kerry "were bunched at the top of a poll" sponsored by Planned Parenthood of likely Iowa Caucus voters. LINK

If you are missing that Note-y sensibility over the weekend, you should listen to this week's "Here's the Point ," wherein Mark Halperin talks to Meetup.com 's Scott Heiferman and Zack Exley of Moveon.org about how the Internet is moving human beings away from their computer screens and into the streets. Check your local ABC radio affiliate or that newfangled satellite radio technology to hear it all.

Scripps Howard's Bill Straub offers mini-profiles (perfect for a mini-Note) of the Democratic candidates. LINK

DEAN

The AP's Mike Glover just can't stop writing about Howard Dean — this time the Meetup.com/Iowa gambit. LINK

Neither can Thomas Beaumont.LINK

"The buzz surrounding Dean's campaign was apparent Wednesday at Dubuque's Carnegie-Stout Library, where about 75 Dubuque-area Democrats attended a noon event. Dean was being trailed by Washington, D.C., correspondents for two British newspapers and the Chicago Tribune."

Note to Beaumont: this Zeleny fellow goes to a lot of candidate events; we wouldn't read too much into his presence.

A GREAT H. Fineman story proves that Howie still likes Howard.

Yes, this is a Mini-Note, but just HAVE to include this:

"The son of a patrician Republican, he comes from a long line of investment bankers. At Yale, he was deep into beer, not politics, and later quit drinking altogether because he couldn't handle alcohol. People think he's arrogant, and spoiled, and he doesn't like to be crossed — especially by reporters. He knows how to raise money, but tends to be underestimated. The Democratic establishment is afraid of him, but he relishes that fact." LINK

"No, I'm not talking about George Walker Bush (Yale '68), son of George Herbert Walker Bush. I'm talking about the man he could face in the fall of 2004, Howard Brush Dean III (Yale '71), son of the late Howard Brush Dean Jr."

"This feels like Groundhog Day: Here I am writing about Howard Dean again for about the sixth time (in Newsweek or here on the Web) this year. But there is a valid reason: The guy is and will remain a central character — perhaps the central character — in the Democratic presidential campaign of 2004."

"The greater risk to Dean, it seems to me, is that he will react badly — very badly — to all the attention. He says he is pre-disastered, that he was hardened by the vicious attacks directed at him in Vermont in 2000, when he was defending the "civil union" legislation. But having some yahoo call you names at a parade is a little different from what the national "oppo" guys may have in mind — not to mention Karl Rove in the Bible Belt, if it comes to that."

And Dean is a prickly sort, whose sense of humor (I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here) isn't the soothing surface-level sort that lubricates the life of politics. When challenged — let alone made fun of — he can go blank or gets angry. No one likes to joke at their own expense, unless they tell it on themselves. Dean doesn't even seem to like that. Can he lighten up? We'll see."

Would Governor Dean ever decide to forgo federal matching funds in the primary? The answer, we thought, was "no": In March, the AP's Sharon Theimer included him on a list of Democrats who said they intended to take the match.

She wrote:

"Howard Dean committed Friday to taking taxpayer dollars to finance his presidential campaign while fellow Democrat John Kerry laid the groundwork to do the same with a letter to donors suggesting they could double their money by helping him qualify. In fact, only donors' first $250 gets matched by the government."

"Like Dean, Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich are committed to taking public financing and the spending limits that come with it, aides said. They are trying to raise the required amounts — $5,000 from each of 20 states in contributions of $250 or less — to qualify for the public money."

"Former Vermont Gov. Dean said he has already met the requirement. He promised to make it an issue in the Democratic primaries if any of his rivals decide to skip public financing, as President Bush did en route to winning the Republican nomination in 2000."

"'It will be a huge issue,' Dean said. 'I think most Democrats believe in campaign finance reform.'"

Now that the campaign has $7.5 million in the book, we and others wondered whether the Dean campaigns feels the same about public financing.

After initial campaign hesitation, through a spokesperson Gov. Dean told ABC News he "fully intends to qualify for matching funds."

The Washington Post 's Richard Cohen looks at Howard Dean's "tap dance" on the death penalty and finds him "as craven as they come."LINK

"I know that nothing a politician can say in favor of capital punishment can possibly hurt him. But Dean is supposed to be different. His supporters say so and so, repeatedly, does he. When it comes to the death penalty, however, he's as craven as they come. The straight-shooter aimed at South Carolina — but shot himself in the foot."

The Boston Globe 's Joan Vennochi writes, "IT IS OFFICIAL: Howard Dean is a real, live Democratic presidential candidate. So now, he, like any other pesky mosquito at a Democratic Leadership Council picnic, must be swatted away." LINK

LIEBERMAN

Yeah, the Lieberman folks are crowing about their $5 million haul.

We can't wait to see their press releases touting their high cash-on-hand figures.

The Wall Street Journal 's Hamburger and Hitt (Note to Jeff Zucker: a fantastic name for a cop series, don't you think? Or is it too early '80s? "This Wednesday, on a very special 'Hamburger and Hitt' … .") … .

… anyway, the Journal pair obviously started a "Lieberman has trouble raising money" story before the last-minute miracle, but the paper runs it anyway, emphasizing the notion that Jews who don't think Lieberman's potential success is good for the Jews aren't giving as much as Joe would have liked.

Lieberman gets a nice headline on his fundraising in the unbylined Los Angeles Times story. LINK

Props from the Tribune News Service. LINK

EDWARDS

We still ain't totally sure what to make of "hold or not a hold" question vis-a-vis Senator Edwards and student soldier loans. LINK

"Mr. Edwards' Senate office confirmed Monday that he opposed moving the bill until after a vote on his amendment. But Tuesday morning, after The Washington Times reported that Mr. Edwards was blocking the bill, campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri hotly denied the report and said Mr. Edwards never opposed the measure," the Times reports today.

Palmieri told ABC News that Edwards's preference for an amended bill doesn't amount to a legislative maneuver of any sort.

"If Gregg's staff wants to bring the bill to the floor, they can knock themselves out. It's our understanding that they don't plan to move the bill because it's already been included in the DOD reauthorization [that passed in May]. If they did, Senator Edwards would wholeheartedly support that."

"I can't reconcile Charlie Hurt's story with the truth, but that's not my problem," she said.

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Senator Edwards "was endorsed for president by fellow Democrat Herb Wesson, speaker of the California State Assembly, Edwards' campaign announced Wednesday." LINK

KUCINICH

The million-dollar man nabbed the endorsement of Willie Nelson.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mark Naymik hits the nail on the head with this question that doubled as his headline: "Kucinich's campaign picks up steam-or is that smoke?" LINK

GEPHARDT

Darn. We thought we'd break the news that Kathy Roeder, ex AFL-CIO, will be Gephardt's New Hampshire press secretary. LINK

The Arizona Republic's Peter Corbett reports, "Steve Forbes predicts Dick Gephardt will emerge from the Democratic field to challenge President Bush next year." LINK

Forbes joins a long list of Republicans who analyze the Democratic nomination process through the lens of a GOP primogeniture worldview.

GRAHAM

The AP's Jacob Jordan reports on Senator Graham's campaign swing through Columbia, South Carolina. LINK

SHARPTON

The Shreveport Times' Kerri Kirby reports that Reverend Sharpton's Wednesday fundraising "two-hour event at Shreveport's Convention Hall brought out about 75 people, fewer than Sharpton's previous visit." LINK

CLARK

Judy Woodruff grilled Wes Clark on his party affiliation and presidential plans on CNN. Clark demurred, saying he was "not an experienced politician" so he didn't know all too much about fundraising and timelines.

Politics of gay issues:

The Washington Post 's David Von Drehle takes a perceptive look at the pros and cons of the very careful line President Bush is walking — or avoiding — on gay marriage, complete with a quote from conservative 2000 presidential candidate Gary Bauer.LINK

The New York Post 's Orin (stop the presses) says the rising prominence of gay issues is perilous for the Democrats. LINK

The Los Angeles Times says it is perilous for both parties. LINK

The Washington Times ' Charles Hurt reports that President Bush's remarks on gay marriage "were seen as tepid by some conservatives." LINK

The AP titters (in reserved AP style) at the president hiding behind the robes of his lawyers on the matter. LINK

The New York Times ' Sara Rimer reports the Boy Scouts aren't being influenced by the recent Supreme Court decision and still plan to ban gays from the organization. Be sure to check out the pre-emptive response distributed by the Boy Scouts citing inaccuracies in the article before its publication. LINKBig Casino budget politics, taxes:

USA Today 's "Money" section reports that "debts could swallow up tax cut cash." LINK

California recall:

The organizers of signature submissions in the Gray Davis recall effort say they have now submitted more than enough signatures to county elections officials to qualify the measure for the ballot. As of 4:30 PM EDT they claim to have submitted 924,847 signatures. The required number of valid signatures is 897,158.

Of course, these are unverified signatures with a lot of room for error. However, recall organizers' best (and realistically only) shot to get the recall measure on a November ballot is to meet their (recently revised) goal of 1.5 million signatures by July 16 and they appear to be on their way to at least coming close to that. LINKTwo Wall Street credit ratings agencies may downgrade California's rating to junk bond status if budget negotiators can't reach a deal.LINKThe San Diego Tribune reports on the launching of "Republicans Against the Recall" and accusations by the group's leader, political consultant Scott Barnett, that Representative Issa has urged Mr. Barnett's clients to fire him due to his stance against the recall. Congressman Issa says the allegations are false.LINKThe Los Angeles Times trio of Hoffman, Rodriguez, and Flynn staked out some LA movie theaters to put together a MOS piece gauging Arnold Schwarzenegger's support. LINK

At 11:00 am PDT, Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall will hold a press conference in Los Angeles to discuss its anti-recall signature gathering efforts. However, those signatures are not part of any official initiative that will go before the voters on the ballot.

Politics:Stuart Rothenberg writes in his Roll Call column that Republicans are pushing their agenda as hard as ever.

"While the electorate continues to be closely divided in partisan terms, you wouldn't know it by looking around the country. Democrats from California to Texas to the nation's capital have to feel like punching bags these days, as Republicans ram through their legislative and political agendas."

USA Today 's Greg Toppo reports that the National Education Association "plans to sue the federal government on behalf of states, school districts and teachers to amend or throw out President Bush's far-reaching education law."LINK

Supersecret Note mention:

(Hey … Hey … NEA … what presidential might you see today?)

USA Today 's Andrea Stone reports that Nancy Pelosi has "surprised critics in both parties" who thought she would "lead Democrats over the ideological brink to political irrelevancy." LINK

In Wednesday's edition of The Hill, Mark Mellman very astutely analyzed the "dramatic evolution" polls show Americans have experienced over the last 20 years in attitudes toward gays. LINK

Mellman Notes: "Part of that evolution has come through education and what we, euphemistically, call the inexorable forces of generational replacement."

Keep your mice ready for when this piece appears on the New York Times website: in the forthcoming edition of the Times Magazine, James Traub contends that the Democrats are "much more willing than Republicans to make political sacrifices in the name of procedural fairness or of good government." Republicans' stubbornness and unwillingness to compromise, Traub writes, might underlie the current balance of power in government.

"Some time very soon, President George Bush is expected to sign a $400 billion bill adding a prescription-drug benefit to Medicare … . The Democrats have, in effect, agreed to hand to Bush precisely the kind of politically precious legislative victory on health care that the Republicans went to any lengths to deny to Clinton back in 1994. … "

"Republicans have been bitterly complaining recently about the filibusters Democrats have mounted to block two of the president's nominees to the federal bench. But this obscures the historical facts. During the last six years of Clinton's presidency, the Republican majority on the Senate Judiciary Committee blocked fully one-third of Clinton's nominees to the federal appeals court. When the Democrats regained control of the Senate in 2001, however, party leaders agreed to rapidly process all but the most controversial candidates in order to fill the vast backlog created by Republican obstruction. … "

"It's an odd reversal, if you think about it. The Republicans used to be the party of the First Methodist Church, and the Democrats of the great unwashed. Now the Republicans are the hellions, and the Democrats are the ones you want to bring home to your mother. … We live in a culture that values brazen certainty and loud conviction, no matter how wrongheaded. Pity the Democrats, stuck with the wrong set of virtues."

The Washington Post 's Jo Becker and Craig Whitlock outline a "symbiotic relationship between the [Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee] and its chairman that tested the limits of Maryland's campaign finance laws" — complete with an ongoing FBI investigation into the fundraising activities of Maryland Senate President/DLCC chair Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. LINKWhen it comes to investing in the humongous hole-in-the-ground that will be the Capitol Visitors Center, Knight Ridder's Dune Lawrence reports that "[only] Las Vegas hotels take a comparable spare-no-expense approach." Awesome. LINK

The State's Lauren Markoe writes about what some consider the "weak showing" of current and former U.S. senators at Senator Thurmond's funeral, and the questions that low attendance has spawned. LINK

Kennedy-Cuomo:

With one story, the New York Post says the elders of the Kennedy and Cuomo clans are trying to tamp down the acrimony LINK; with another story, they introduce the world to the alleged "other man" (So y'all can stop calling us to ask who it — allegedly — is … ). LINK New York Times Metro Matters' Columnist Joyce Pernick wonders why, when a marriage fails it is assumed it is the woman's fault? LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

"Bush on Wednesday named Randall Tobias to direct a $15 billion international AIDS program. The former chief executive officer for Eli Lilly & Co. will coordinate all the administration's international AIDS/HIV activities for all government departments and agencies as well as religious-based community groups," writes the AP's Deb Reichmann. LINK

The AP's George Gedda reports that President Bush will be "steering clear" of "hotspots" during his trip to Africa next week, and he will "focus on countries that have made headway in democratic development — South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal and Botswana. In Uganda, he will highlight the country's success in reducing the HIV/AIDS infection rate." LINK

Media:

"The Federal Communications Commission on Wednesday released final versions of its media ownership rules, a move expected to trigger a response from lawmakers who already are fighting the measures," writes the AP's David Ho. LINK

Finale:

Finally, given what the Democratic candidates are doing in the next 96 hours, and that some of our readers are more Barry than Bruce, we offer you this lovely reminder of what a Weekend in New England is like courting tough-to-please New Hampshire voters (This one's for you, Dick Gephardt, wherever you are):

Last night, I said goodbye Now--it seems years I'm back in the city Where nothing is clear But thoughts of me --holding you Bringing us near

And tell me When will our eyes meet When can I touch you When will this strong yearning end And when will I hold you again

Time in New England Took me away To long rocky beaches --and you, by the bay We started a story Whose end must now wait

And, tell me When will our eyes meet When can I touch you When will this strong yearning end And when will I hold you again

I feel the change comin' --I feel the wind blow I feel brave and daring! I feel my blood flow With you I can bring out All the love, that I have --With you there's a heaven So earth ain't so bad

And tell me When will our eyes meet When can I touch you When will this strong yearning end And when will I hold you again