It Is No Longer Not Debatable
WASHINGTON, Sept. 30, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
33 days until Election Day
It's debate day!
5 days until the vice presidential debate
8 days until the second presidential debate
13 days until the third presidential debate
NEWS SUMMARY
Not EVERY member of the Gang of 500 was gathered near the pool of South Beach's Delano Hotel last night.
But there was what Al Hunt would call a "quorum" — and Bill Safire would call "a minyan" — of the Gang.
Others would say it looked more like "Ken Mehlman's office."
In any case, look no further than The Note for a distillation of everything you need to know about tonight's Clash in Coral Gables:
Kerry has to "win" the debate to win blah blah blah.
Kerry has a tough challenge — to go on the attack but still be someone Americans want in their living rooms for four years blah blah blah.
Both these men are champion debaters blah blah blah.
What the news coverage says immediately after the debate is just as important — maybe more important — than what happens in the debate itself blah blah blah.
Kerry will acknowledge that he's changed his mind occasionally and can be unclear at times, but will needle Bush by saying it's better to be flexible when things go wrong than to be stubborn blah blah blah.
This is the first time both candidates will appear together before the American people free from the influences of handlers and aides blah blah blah.
The President — after acting confident for days — will "surprise" everyone (and de-fang Sen. Kerry) by being suddenly contrite and yielding — less "times are tough," or, even "mistakes were made," than "I have made mistakes" blah blah blah.
In a nation of several hundred million people, why does Jim Lehrer get to keep moderating these things blah blah blah.
It will be interesting to see if the candidates choose blue or red ties blah blah blah.
How they look and act will matter as much as what they say, blah, blah, blah.
John Kerry sure better have a good and tight answer to that Iraq question, blah, blah, blah.
Boy, Republicans are more organized and on message than Democrats are blah blah blah.
Al Gore lost the first 2000 debate by losing the post-debate spin wars blah blah blah.
How about those wacky, restrictive, detailed campaign-negotiated rules that make this less a debate and more a joint appearance blah blah blah.
The first debate historically has the largest audience blah blah blah.
John Kerry must sound more bar room than Brahmin blah blah blah.
Ralph Reed really HAS been to the fountain of youth (or perhaps DID make that deal with the devil) blah blah blah.
And most important, as Democratic pollster Paul Maslin — with characteristic understatement — told the Los Angeles Times about John Kerry:
"If he can make this election about Bush, Bush in all likelihood will lose. If this election is about Kerry, then we've got a rougher row to hoe."
And there isn't any blah blah blah about that.
Tonight, ABC News' Peter Jennings anchors two hours of live coverage of the first presidential debate, from 9:00-11:00 pm ET, joined by George Stephanopoulos, Fareed Zakaria, and Martha Raddatz.
Terry Moran, Dean Reynolds, and Mark Halperin will report live from the debate in Coral Gables, FL, and Jake Tapper will report from Washington, DC.
"Nightline" follows up with its in-depth coverage and analysis during its regularly scheduled broadcast.
ABC News Now, our broadband and digital cable channel, will carry the debate live as well, kicked off by a special edition of "Trail Mix" at 7:30 pm ET.
Sam Donaldson anchors ABC News Radio's live coverage, joined by correspondents Ann Compton, Bob Schmidt, and Andrew Colton.
And don't miss continual updates and fact checking in real time on Noted Now on ABCNEWS.com. LINK
President Bush tours the hurricane relief effort in Stuart, FL (9:40 am ET), participates in the first presidential debate (9:00-10:30 pm ET) at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, FL then visits a debate watching party in Miami (10:50 pm ET).
Sen. Kerry participates in the first presidential debate as well, then attends a post-debate rally with singer John Mellencamp at the Miami Arena in Miami, FL (11:00 pm ET).
First Lady Laura Bush speaks at a "David Vitter for Senate" luncheon at the Petroleum Club of Shreveport in Shreveport, LA (12:00 pm ET) then heads to Coral Gables, FL to watch the debate.
Vice President Cheney attends a debate watching party at the Denver Marriott City Center, Denver, CO (8:25 pm ET). Following this event, the Vice President heads to Wyoming for his own debate prep.
Sen. Edwards departs Washington, DC at 6:15 pm ET and watches the presidential debate on television at the Westin Hotel in Columbus, OH at 9:00 pm ET. He then holds an 11:20 pm ET rally at Genoa Park in Columbus, OH.
Presidential candidate Ralph Nader holds a press conference at the University of Miami in Miami, FL (11:00 am ET) and delivers a campaign speech at the University of Miami (12:00 pm ET). And Nader would like to be at the debate tonight, if he can.
The Senate reconvenes on Thursday at 9:30 at ET and resume consideration of S 2845, the National Intelligence Reform bill.
The House of Representatives meets to consider H.J.Res. 106, the Marriage Protection Amendment (under a closed rule) in Washington, DC (10:00 am ET).
The Clash in Coral Gables: previews:
In their preview, the Washington Post 's Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei write that the Clash will produce the candidates' first "direct confrontation over the war in Iraq" and could be "Kerry's best opportunity to shake up a contest that is tilting in Bush's direction." LINK
We love this blind quote for about 10 reasons:
"Both sides know that debates can change the dynamic of a campaign, but a senior Kerry adviser, who declined to be identified so he could speak freely, said his candidate must use Thursday's debate to erode Bush's advantage on the Iraq war and terrorism or face a daunting challenge in the final four weeks of the campaign."
The Boston Globe 's Anne Kornblut and Pat Healy write that "with the debate expected to draw by far the highest audience of any political event in the campaign so far, political strategists said it could potentially overshadow almost every other twist to date." LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Zeleny, Silva, and Zuckman offer a big picture thought: "The rivals have a rich opportunity to clarify their diverging views on the prosecution of a war, which for the first time in a generation is interwoven with a race for the White House." LINK
It's showdown time! declares the Miami Herald 's Lesley Clark. LINK
The Raleigh News & Observer has some funky artwork to go with the AP debate preview. LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's Robbins, Block, Cloud, Cooper, and Jaffe look at where the candidates stand on the issues and write that tonight's debate "should run true to form" LINK
The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga writes that both men will be "[armed] with verbal jabs, scripted one-liners and well-rehearsed mannerisms for the TV cameras." LINK
The Washington Times Notes both camps are talking a good game to underplay expectations. LINK
The Boston Globe 's Peter Canellos lets history be his guide. LINK
Jim Ragsdale of the St. Paul Pioneer Press gives a nice summary of memorable debate moments past: LINK
Christopher Buckley has a cute column about tonight's debate on the Wall Street Journal 's opinion page. It'll have other ed page editors thinking, "Natch . . . why didn't we think of that?"
Excerpt: "Yet despite the Microsoft-like formatting, this will be must-see TV. Eighty million people will be watching intently, not daring to get up and use the bathroom or fetch another bag of Doritos for fear of missing the big moment when Mr. Bush calls Kim Jong Il 'Ding Dong 2' or Mr. Kerry announces that he met the Easter Bunny in Laos in '68. Suspense will build as we wait for the first candidate to pull the Reagan Debate Lever and say, 'Ask yourself, are you safer now than you were four years ago?'"
Jennifer Harper reports the television media has run amok Miami. "In the name of journalistic freedom, the networks simply ignored rules outlined by the Commission on Presidential Debates that curtailed camera shots and other images." LINK
The Clash in Coral Gables: fact check:
The Washington Post 's Glen Kessler and Ceci Connolly offer a word of warning: "at first glance, a candidate's assertion may have the ring of truth. But on close examination, many of their pronouncements turn out to be exaggerated, lacking in context or wrong." An excellent clip and save for home (and work) viewing. LINK
The New York Times ' James Bennett tries to find clear distinctions in the foreign policy positions of both candidates and finds little. That despite the pronouncements by many experts — partisan and independent — who say the differences in worldview could not be greater. LINK
"One reason the candidates have not discussed a wide range of issues is that — for all the talk about stark differences — on many foreign policy subjects, from relations with China to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, the two differ only slightly, if at all."
"Even on Iraq, the candidates' sharpest stated differences are retrospective, rather than prospective. Mr. Bush defends the war as central to the struggle against terrorism; Mr. Kerry criticizes it as a diversion. As they look ahead, though, neither man is calling for the immediate departure of American troops; both advocate accelerating the training of Iraqi forces."
"When they debate Iraq, the candidates are clashing over matters of real moment — over whether, for example, the insurgency is growing stronger — but also trying to cement specific images. Call it character versus competence: Mr. Bush wants to present himself as a leader with the courage to go it alone, facing a rival who wavers; Mr. Kerry wants to present himself as wise and prudent, better able to judge threats and enlist allies against them."
Maura Reynolds of the Los Angeles Times looks at how similar Kerry and Bush's foreign policy goals are, but how the means they employ to reach those goals is where you find the differences. "In essence, the central question is: Is it better for the United States to be liked or feared?," writes Reynolds. LINK
USA Today 's Judy Keen and Jill Lawrence advise, "Words — the wrong ones, garbled ones or too many — have often been the bane of these men. Presidential debates have tripped up many a candidate before them, even those with smoother command of grammar and diction." LINK
Knight Ridder's Ron Hutcheson has a preemptive truth squadding piece on debate lines of attack. LINK
The Clash in Coral Gables: the voters:
Ron Brownstein sums up the Los Angeles Times pre-debate poll and Notes 19 percent of likely voters say tonight's debate could affect their votes. LINK
"Bush leads his Democratic challenger 51% to 46% among likely voters in the survey. With both men holding at least 90% of the voters from their own party, the GOP president has seized the advantage by moving ahead among several key swing voter groups that both sides covet, including independents, suburbanites and married women."
More Brownstein: "Bush's lead over Kerry on personal attributes has widened even as assessments of the president's performance on the economy and Iraq have slightly deteriorated since the last Times poll, conducted in late August. That trend underscores Republican success in seeding doubts about Kerry and bolstering confidence in Bush."
And yet just a little more: "Independents, married women, suburbanites, white women and voters earning $30,000 to $50,000 a year all split almost in half between Bush and Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election, according to exit polling by Voter News Service. In the new Times poll, Bush is preferred over Kerry by 4 percentage points among independents and married women, 9 points among suburbanites and 12 points among white women and middle-income voters."
"Bush has limited Kerry's advantage among all women to 5 percentage points — about half of Gore's edge in 2000. Bush has extended his advantage among men to 17 percentage points, up from 11 in 2000."
From an Altoona, IA, dateline, the Los Angeles Times' LaGanga and a (City by the Bay) Barabak write of voters' desire to see the contrasts between the candidates in tonight's debate which "could go a long way toward deciding whether Bush can solidify his upper hand in the contest or Kerry can capitalize on persistent voter unease about the incumbent." LINK
Undecided voters in Nevada are looking for clarity in Bush and Kerry's stances, reports the Reno Gazette-Journal. LINK
The Clash in Coral Gables: the debate about debates:
The Boston Globe 's Mark Jurkowitz Notes, "The impact of these regulations on the debate and on the viewers who tune in is a matter of some debate itself." LINK
Jim Lehrer wouldn't do any pre-debate interviews, but that didn't stop this Los Angeles Times profile on the moderator about to embark upon his tenth presidential debate. And, apparently, with a new tie. LINK
Sidney Zion writes, "If I were moderator Jim Lehrer tonight . . . " LINK
Bill Shadel, the last living moderator from the 1960 debates, does not expect to be impressed tonight, reports David Postman of the Seattle Times. LINK
After the, um, interesting experiment of overhauling the campaign finance system, the debates are arguably the most important part of the presidential race, writes David Broder of the Washington Post . But he doesn't buy that the current process of debate negotiations and focus on the two major parties does a service to anyone — and encourages not only direct engagement by the candidates, but also opening at least one of the debates to outside candidates who've qualified for the ballot in a majority of states. LINK
The Clash in Coral Gables: Bush v. Kerry:
"On the eve of his first debate with President Bush, Senator John Kerry acknowledged Wednesday that the Bush campaign had succeeded in defining him as changing his mind too often — in part because he has had "inarticulate moments'' — but said that the portrayal "doesn't reflect the truth," writes the New York Times David Halbfinger. LINK
We Note with pride that Diane Sawyer managed to elicit that sound bite.
But Republicans pointed out that Mr. Kerry had made the remark in the early afternoon, not at night. Indeed, the March 16 statement came at Mr. Kerry's first campaign event of the day, and two weeks after he had locked up the nomination.
"Perhaps his watch was on Paris time?" the Bush campaign mused in e-mail messages to reporters. Stephanie Cutter, a Kerry spokeswoman, said his mistake about the time of day was 'not surprising because campaigns tend to feel after a while like one long continuous blur.' She added, 'Better to be inarticulate than to be wrong when it comes to sending our troops to war.'"
Jacob Schlesinger in the Wall Street Journal says Kerry's key task tonight is "to convince these 'persuadable' voters that he's a plausible alternative. If he can't, they might simply opt for the safety of the status quo — especially at a time of terror fears and war — or they may not vote at all."
"Mr. Kerry's performance as a candidate hasn't made the choice easier. Despite the speeches and TV ads, many persuadables say they don't have a clear sense of what the Democrat would do about either Iraq or domestic issues."
Bob Novak makes it simple: "The pressure is on Kerry to get something accomplished in his first debate." LINK
The New York Post 's Deb Orin, Vince Morris, and Ian Bishop write, "Unless Kerry finds a way to change the dynamic — and outline a clear position on Iraq — the race could be all over." LINK
Madeleine Albright writes questions about our exit strategy in Iraq for President Bush to answer. LINK
"In a conference call with Ohio reporters, Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, a Kerry supporter, signaled that Kerry might directly counter Bush's insistence that the country is safer by pointing to North Korea. Pyongyang announced Tuesday that it has transformed the plutonium from 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods into nuclear weapons."
"'No one can argue that America today is safer from North Korea,' Biden said." LINK
William Kristol writes questions on foreign policy for Senator Kerry to answer. LINK
Orin tells Kerry: don't slouch! LINK
Stanley Crouch offers constructive criticism in the New York Daily News, "The Post ure of a stiff is what Kerry is going to have to scrape off of himself if these debates are to change the public's image of him. He always seems to be imitating the idea of life, never embodying it." LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's editorial page has a crib sheet of answers Kerry probably ought not to give.
Edwards told a West Virginia crowd that Kerry is "in a fighting mood." As for the debate: "It's going to be a test for George W. Bush," he said. "It's going to be a test as to whether he will finally come clean about what's really going on in Iraq. He says things are going well there." LINK
James Rosen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune sums up the task at hand for Kerry: "With Bush holding a solid single-digit lead in polls less than five weeks before Election Day, the debate gives Kerry the opportunity to show an anticipated 50 million TV viewers that he is not the vacillating, patrician man of Bush's mocking portrayals." LINK
Rob Bingnell of the Iowa Press Citizen says Kerry must be able to pull of the one-liners as well as a clear stance on foreign policy for this debate to be a win. LINK
For the record, Sen. Kerry's sleeping at the Sheraton Bal Harbour — a union hotel, Notes the Miami Herald 's Douglas Hanks. LINK
The Clash in Coral Gables: the University of Miami:
The fine journalistic minds of the University of Miami offer full debate coverage with an insider's POV. LINK
The Miami Herald 's Daniel de Vise writes that the University of Miami stands to benefit from the publicity. LINK
Mini-Clash in Coral Gables:
Two slightly less household-name-status presidential candidates, Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik and Green Party candidate David Cobb, will ALSO debate tonight in Miami. The two men — who have faced each other in this type of forum before — will meet in a town hall-type format that allows questions from media, students and the public.
The showdown will take place "just feet from-the first televised 'debate' between the two-party candidates," says a release from the Libertarian candidate's press office.
If there have been any heated negotiations over pens, podiums or room temperature, the media has failed to uncover them. Note: the process may be simpler because Ralph Nader does not plan to participate.
Once again the nation's most widely recognized third party presidential candidate is declining the initiation to debate. Yet, Nader will be in town and likely be seen on the small screen tonight.
Similarly, third-party vice presidential candidates debate will be held in Cleveland next week.
There will be other third party presidential debates between now and Nov. 2. Perhaps the one with the longest held tradition is being organized by Cornell University.
It will be held Oct. 6, 2004 in the New York campus with David Cobb, Walt Brown [Socialist Party], Michael Badnarik, and Michael Peroutka [Constitution Party]. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:
The New York Daily News on BC04's rapid response to Kerry's sit-down with Diane Sawyer yesterday. LINK
The New York Times ' Randall Archibold wraps Senator Edwards' Wednesday during which he "accused the Bush administration of botching plans" for occupying Iraq. LINK
"While the campaign may not be coming to New Yorkers — both candidates rarely visit, hardly advertise and have more or less written the state off as Senator Kerry's — New Yorkers are going to the campaign," Notes the New York Times 'globe-trotting Jennifer Steinhauer. LINK
Some folks in the Kerry campaign have an explanation for the Gallup poll showing a tighter Buckeye State race: they're calling it the "Carole King Bump." The singer has done a bunch of radio for them in the state over the past week --- six interviews in the Cleveland, Youngstown, Lima, Akron and Columbus markets. Shows included "Dino and Stacey" and "Wags and Elliott" in Columbus.
Ms. King is now in Missouri doing the same thing, so we'll see if there's a bump there too. The fun loving Ohio folks made a bet with Kerry's Missouri campaign (yes, he still has one!) about the number of contacts they could make in a night with their phone banks. Missouri won. (Kerry Ohio will ship them a case of beer.)
Speaking of radio in Ohio: ads targeting black voters went on the air last week in full force. It's part of a coordinated effort to improve Kerry's performance with African-American voters, which some Democratic strategists suspect has been tepid of late. The ads feature former Labor secretary Alexis Herman. Jesse Jackson's addition as a senior adviser to the DNC is another part of that effort.
The New Republic's Franklin Foer turns in a must-read outlining all you want to know about the mystique of John Sasso, and how the Kerry campaign has brought him from the behind-the-scenes shadows into the public light. LINK
"Far from relegating Sasso to obscurity, however, his negligible public persona has only increased his cache. In recent years, he has emerged as the Keyser Sosze of the Democratic Party-an enigmatic figure talked about in hushed tones, ascribed incredible powers. Earlier this month, he joined John Kerry on his campaign plane, filling the role of most-trusted adviser."
This Stephanie Cutter profile is sure hard-hitting! LINK
John Kerry and Diane Sawyer on Good Morning America:
Part 2 of Diane Sawyer's interview with Sen. Kerry aired this morning, looking at the style and substance of tonight's duel — and perhaps previewed both questions and answers.
Diane Sawyer: Is George Bush smart?
John Kerry: Absolutely. He's a very clever debater. He beat Ann Richards, Al Gore. He's President, and anybody who doubts that somebody isn't smart as President doesn't know what it's all about.
DS: Senator Kennedy has said that because of the war in Iraq, a nuclear 9/11 is now more likely. Do you agree?
JK: Let me be very specific. On his watch, while he's been President, while he has been preoccupied with Iraq, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons. Are you safer today than you were before President Bush let that happen? No.
DS: You have talked about talking to North Korea and enforcing diplomacy. If it does not work, do you rule out a first strike on North Korea? Would you use the U.S. military to go in?
JK: I wouldn't rule out anything.
DS: Ultimately, would you consider sending in troops?
JK: I would consider whatever is necessary to protect the United States of America.
Kerry told Sawyer he does not regret letting three weeks go by without responding to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
"No, I — look — that's not what this race is about and I think people know it," he said.
Then he ripped into the group veterans, saying, "Those are ridiculous lies. They are damnable lies. They've been proven to be lies."
Shown a picture of his dad and asked what would he like to tell him, Kerry said, "That I'm following the spirit of telling the truth and fighting. Being true to who I am."
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
Julie Mason of the Houston Chronicle writes up President Bush's visit to hurricane-ravaged orange groves in central Florida in yet another high-profile visit to the Sunshine State." LINK
Jodi Wilgoren of the New York Times writes that the president's visit to Florida "displayed the advantages of incumbency."LINK
Wilgoren delves in the politics of hurricanes and Scott McClellan declares Vermont safe from hurricanes:
"Asked how the hurricanes — and the federal relief efforts — might affect this election, Mr. McClellan told reporters, 'I don't know how you can look at it that way.' Pressed on whether the efforts would be equally intense had the storms not hit a swing state, but, say, Vermont, he said, 'I don't think Vermont is going to be hit this hard by a hurricane because it's not, it's landlocked.'"
"President Bush never was disciplined while serving in the Texas Air National Guard, never failed a physical and never asked his father or family friends for help to get him into the Guard during the Vietnam War, the White House said Wednesday," reports the AP's Pete Yost. LINK
"Vice President Cheney and his counterpart on the Democratic ticket, Sen. John Edwards, continued to trade sharp words on security and Iraq on Wednesday as they charged through the nation's hotly contested battleground states," write the Washington Post 's Mathew Most and Ovetta Wiggins. LINK
The Cheneys continued to give Nick and Jessica a run for their money in the banter department yesterday, this time on the topic of Sen. Kerry's, um, tan.
At a town hall meeting in Duluth, MN, Vice President Cheney instructed the audience to look for the volunteers in the orange T-shirts if they wanted to ask a question. Mrs. Cheney then asked, " "Dick, what do those orange shirts remind you of? I'll say it. How about John Kerry's suntan?"
The crowd loved the line and the Vice President replied, "Oh, I may have to disassociate myself from . . . We're trying to bring her along — she's doing good, that was a good line; it was a good line."
At The Machine Shed restaurant in Lake Elmo, MN, the Vice President also weighed in on the big news of the day for District residents — the return of baseball!
Cheney first asked of the team, "Are they going to be any good?"
Cheney called the possibility of the team "a great boon to the community" and a "great development" but it would force people to take a look at their current team loyalties.
The Washington Post 's Lisa de Moraes gives President Bush's "Dr. Phil" interview the "we watch so you don't have to" treatment.LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry: the politics of Iraq:
In a Washington Post op ed, Peter Beinart of The New Republic compares both Bush and Kerry's propositions for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq — and the rhetoric accompanying them. LINK
"To listen to the Bush campaign, John Kerry wants 'retreat and defeat,' while the president remains committed to vanquishing the terrorists and building a democratic Iraq. But the gap between Bush's rhetoric on the stump and his policies on the ground grows with each passing week. In reality, it is Bush, not Kerry, who is laying the groundwork for America's withdrawal from Iraq, a withdrawal that secures neither democracy nor security in the country that was meant to transform the Middle East."
The New York Daily News Notes the new ads from Real Voices, featuring members of soldiers who were killed in Iraq who question Bush's decisions in Iraq. LINK
The U.S. Army "has met its recruiting and retention goals for active-duty soldiers in the fiscal year that ends today," reports the Washington Times . Now that's the kind of thing BC04 likes to read in the paper. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:
In his campaign journal, the New Republic's Ryan Lizza writes that while polls show the public's confidence in Bush's handling of Iraq is slipping a bit, they're also showing that the Bush character attacks on Kerry are sticking in the minds of voters. LINK
"Earlier this week we wrote about the attempt by some liberals to scare up black voter turnout this year by invoking the Florida myth of 2000. But in case that doesn't work, the fallback seems to be to play the race card one more time," the Wall Street Journal 's editorial board writes.
"At least that seems to be the strategy of the Democratic majority on the U.S. Civil Rights Commission, which is about to deliver a scathing report on President Bush's record on civil rights. This is the all-too-familiar handiwork of Chairman Mary Frances Berry and her staff, who produced the document all by themselves with zero input from the Republican commissioners, to whom it was delivered late yesterday morning. We'll be intrigued to see which newspapers give it prominent play today."
The Washington Post 's Brian Faler and Jonathan Finer examine a poll conducted by the National Annenberg Election Survey, which shows that a large majority of Americans don't know where the candidates stand on the issues. LINK
Pollster Mark Mellman rails against the Security moms, the Dayton housewives, yuppies, waitress moms, soccer moms, office-park dads and NASCAR dads, and other tricks of his trade in the Hill. LINK
If Karl Rove is still thinking of poking around Connecticut, he may or may not be pleased with the Quinnipiac University poll numbers out of the Nutmeg State today. John Kerry is leading George Bush 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters and Ralph Nader is polling at 2 percent. Kerry's lead among registered voters is 9 points which is a slight improvement from where he was in the August 19 Q-poll.
USA Today 's Mark Memmott contrasts the ad wars to the relative civility we may expect at the debates. LINK
USA Today 's Joan Biskupic writes about the prospects for the Supreme Court depending on who is elected. LINK
(Some possible candidates: LINK)
ABC News Vote 2004: the Big Four battlegrounds: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin:
USA Today 's Bill Nichols reports, "President Bush has widened his advantage with likely voters in Florida, taken the lead in Pennsylvania and maintains a small margin over John Kerry in Ohio, according to a USA TODAY /CNN/Gallup Poll of three key states." LINK
Just a reminder! Ohio absentee voting (with proper excuse, of course) has started and registration ends on Monday. LINK
The Ohio Secretary of State approved the same sex marriage ban proposal for the Nov. 2 ballot. We now await further court decisions. LINK
Ohio's Republican Attorney General opposes the same sex marriage ban. LINK
The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a listing of events in the area tied to Tuesday's vice presidential debate. LINK
The Philadelphia Inquirer provides a must-read profile for BC04's top two folks in the Keystone State. Note Note: And you know the Bush campaign is serious about winning those 21 electoral votes when they put Mark Pfeifle on the ground there too!!! LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:
The Los Angeles Times provides a must-read look at the battleground that is New Mexico. LINK
Knight Ridder's Laura Kurtzman unravels the intricate mysteries of the Land of Enchantment as well. LINK
Is Missouri "resolved," as we say in the trades, for President Bush? Not quite, writes Johnny Apple, but it's getting there. LINK
The Kansas City Star takes Note of an Overland Park group pro-Republican radio ads aimed at black voters, including one that lobs the allegation Democrats "preach tolerance but practice discrimination." LINK
The St. Louis Post Dispatch Notes that Republicans have not cornered the market on targeting religious voters. LINK
The Arizona Republic warns: if you cast your vote early, you can't look back! LINK
The Denver Post reports voter drives are in "overdrive" in battlegroundish Colorado, the New Voters Project is working hard to increase voter turnout among people ages 18 to 24. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting:
Why does Alaska have to reprint all its ballots?
Per the AP: "Judge Morgan Christen ruled the ballot summary of an initiative to change how the state fills its U.S. Senate vacancies was inaccurate and lacked impartiality." LINK
The New York Times ' ed board says "in Ohio and Colorado, two key battlegrounds, the secretaries of state have been interpreting the rules in ways that could prevent thousands of eligible Americans from voting. In both states, the courts should step in." LINK
From the outside:
Here's some information about the National Rifle Association's political activities this coming month.
First, they'll spend in the neighborhood of $20 million total. That automatically makes them a major player, whether or not you think they cost Al Gore the election in West Virginia or Tennessee.
Every month, the NRA sends out 4,000,000 magazines to NRA members. October's magazine will include a political preference chart, with issue positions taken by presidential candidates on down to congressional races.
The NRA says it will distribute millions of pieces of mail and place millions of phone calls and send Lord knows how many e-mails to supporters and potential supporters between now and election day.
They'll be on the air on television and on radio; and they'll place ads in newspapers, like this one** , which will appear in newspapers and on billboards across the country (with heavy concentration in battleground states) very soon. ** LINK
Key NRA targeted presidential states this year include Minnesota, West Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. They're already airing half-hour infomercials in key battleground states, and NRA luminaries plan massive GOTV rallies as election day nears.
NARAL Pro-Choice America will begin running two televisions ads Friday, "Lives at Stake" and "Now We Know it Matters" today in five important markets: Portland, OR; Spokane, WA; Madison, WI; Milwaukee, WI; Philadelphia, PA; and New Hampshire cable (statewide). The ads are targeted to young women and will run a week and a half to the level of 500 points of market saturation. Taking a broad view of abortion rights, the ad hits on contraception, stem cell research and loss of privacy. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the Senate:
A panel of Chicago high school students grilled US Senate candidates Alan Keyes and Barack Obama on hot issues yesterday. The AP reports, when asked if he would support a family member who was gay and wanted to get married, Keyes responded: "I couldn't." LINK
"You're asking me a personal question, right, in terms of what I'd say to a family member. And that has to be governed by my personal conscience, and my personal conscience is shaped by my faith, and my faith is very clear: That homosexual relationships are sinful and wrong, and I will not — not — facilitate my children, whom I love, in going down a path that, according to my faith, leads to a kind of death that's worse than physical death," Keyes said.
ABC News Vote 2004: the House:
House Dems believes the more days Congress stays in session, the better their chances of picking up seats in November — so says the Hill. LINK
The politics of national security:
"Modularity" is your term of art for the day!!! "U.S. Military Is Stretched Too Thin . . . " begins a Los Angeles Times headline on a defense policy review board findings. LINK
In between all the joy-in-Mudville, baseball's-returning-to-DC stories on the Washington Post 's front page is this story by Dana Priest and Chuck Babington, who report that "the Bush administration is supporting a provision in the House leadership's intelligence reform bill that would allow U.S. authorities to deport certain foreigners to countries where they are likely to be tortured or abused, an action prohibited by the international laws against torture the United States signed 20 years ago." Human rights advocates say it contradicts promises President Bush made after the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. LINK
"A federal judge struck down an important surveillance provision of the antiterrorism legislation known as the USA Patriot Act yesterday, ruling that it broadly violated the Constitution by giving the federal authorities unchecked powers to obtain private information," reports the New York Times ' Julia Preston. LINK
National Guard documents:
Washington Post watchdog Michael Dobbs saves the reward of his story about the tangled challenge of trying to get access to the candidates' military services records to the end. He examined some Air National Guard histories at a repository in Crystal City this week. LINK
"The unit histories undermine the initial contention of the Bush camp that he gave up flying because his services as an F-102 pilot were no longer needed. They show that the F-102 remained the workhorse of the 147th through mid-1972, when Bush moved from Texas to Alabama to take part in a political campaign, even as pilots were being trained on the more sophisticated F-101. Fifteen F-102 planes were in service in the 147th that year, compared with 18 planes in 1968, the year Bush joined the Guard."
"The unit histories also cast doubt on a 1999 statement by Bush that there were 'five or six flying slots available' in the 147th when he first expressed an interest in applying, in January 1968. At that time, the unit was two pilots short of its assigned strength of 29 pilots. Two pilots were undergoing training to take over the positions, and one pilot was on the transfer list."
The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board slams Rep. Joe Barton for suggesting hearings into Dan Rather and the CBS documents.
Reuters has President Bush's letter of resignation from the National Guard. LINK
"In the one-page 'Tender of Resignation,' Bush hand-wrote the following reason for resigning: 'Inadequate time to fulfill possible future commitments.'"
Nader-Camejo:
USA Today 's Andrea Stone writes about Nader and Florida voters and his remarks Wednesday before an "overflow crowd" gathered in the former mansion of a circus impresario turned home to the New College of the University of South Florida on Sarasota Bay. "Although his campaign is little more than a sideshow to millions who will watch tonight's debate, his speech to the largely tie-died, tattoo- and nose ring-adorned students drew exuberant applause and nodding of heads as Nader thrashed the Democrats, the Republicans and corporate America." LINK
The AP reports on the status of Nader in Pennsylvania an ongoing, and ongoing, and ongoing saga. LINK
Nader ballot status in Arkansas will be decided this morning. LINK
Nader is rooting to be a write-in where he did not make the ballot though his Veep calls it home. LINK
Did we mention Ralph Nader has made it on the straw poll ballot at The Tombs in Georgetown?
Politics:
The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman reports that the House Judiciary Committee has decided to stop work on legislation to balance the budget. LINK
The New York Times ' Carl Hulse reports that the House and Senate adopted a stopgap measure on Wednesday to keep federal agencies running through Nov. 20. LINK
The New York Times ' Sheryl Gay Stolberg reports "two weeks after the Republican leadership in Congress allowed the federal assault weapons ban to expire, the House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly on Wednesday to repeal the District of Columbia's 27-year-old ban on certain firearms, one of the strictest gun laws in the nation." LINK
"The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a bill yesterday repealing most of the District's gun laws, in a vote that handed an election-season victory to gun rights groups and was denounced by the city's leaders as a historic violation of home rule," reports the Washington Post 's Spencer Hsu. LINK
"A Senate committee on Wednesday began untangling the financial relationship between six Indian tribes and two Washington insiders who Congressional investigators say charged the tribes more than $66 million in less than four years for minimal work," reports the New York Times ' Michael Janofsky. LINK
"Former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and public relations executive Michael Scanlon formed a secret partnership that corruptly influenced Indian tribal elections in order to bilk tribes that operate gambling casinos out of more than $66 million in fees, lawmakers charged yesterday during an unusual Senate committee hearing," reports the Washington Post 's Susan Schmidt. LINK
Michael Scanlon, a public-relations consultant and former aide to Tom DeLay, failed to show up to testify before a Senate panel yesterday after federal marshals failed to serve him a subpoena. According to The Hill's Josephine Hearn, he is under investigation for his business dealings with Indian tribes. LINK
Brody Mullins of Roll Call writes, "Terry McAuliffe, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and former House Appropriations Chairman Bob Livingston (R-La.) are being sued for securities fraud in Texas for their role in a technology startup that allegedly bilked $16 million from political figures, Washington lobbyists and other investors in the waning years of the high-tech boom." LINK
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—9:00 am: Senate and House Democrats host the 5th Annual Hispanic Leadership Summit and release a report on whether Hispanics are better off now than four years ago, Washington, DC
—9:30 am: The Senate reconvenes on to resume consideration of S 2845, the National Intelligence Reform bill
—9:40 am: President Bush tours the hurricane relief effort, Stuart, FL
—10:00 am: The House of Representatives meets to consider H.J.Res. 106, the Marriage Protection Amendment (under a closed rule), Washington, DC
—10:00 am: A coalition of veterans, Vietnamese Americans and others picket in front of Sen. John Kerry's Georgetown home to demand that Kerry stop what they is his action blockage of efforts to establish human rights for the peoples of Vietnam, Washington, DC
—10:45 am: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi holds her regular news conference at the Capitol, Washington, DC
—11:00 am: Presidential candidate Ralph Nader holds a press conference at the University of Miami, Miami, FL
—11:00 am: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist meets with the Emir of Qatar at the Capitol, Washington, DC
—12:00 pm: First Lady Laura Bush speaks at a "David Vitter for Senate" luncheon at the Petroleum Club of Shreveport, Shreveport, LA
—12:00 pm: Ralph Nader delivers a campaign speech at the University of Miami, Miami, FL
—12:30 pm: House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer and Reps. Rahm Emanuel, Jan Schakowsky, and Joseph Crowley hold a news conference to discuss the Congress recessing before 12 of the 13 appropriations bills are complete, Washington, DC
—2:30 pm: The Senate Select Intelligence Committee meets to receive a closed briefing on intelligence matters, Washington, DC
—4:30 pm: The Federal Reserve releases weekly reports on aggregate reserves and the monetary base, factors affecting bank reserves and money supply
—8:25 pm: Vice President Cheney attends a debate watching party at the Denver Marriott City Center, Denver, CO
—9:00 pm: President Bush and Sen. John Kerry participate in the first Presidential Debate at the University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL
—10:50 pm: President Bush visits a debate watching party, Miami, FL
—11:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a post-debate rally with singer John Mellencamp at the Miami Arena, Miami, FL
—11:30 pm: Sen. John Edwards attends a rally at Genoa Park, Columbus, OH
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