The Note: "Myopic Misread of the American Electorate"

WASHINGTON, Oct. 11, 2004 -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

22 days until Election Day

2 days until the third presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

The Note holds these truths to be self evident:

Beyond the Note-y Notion that the winner of the electoral votes of at least two of the Big Three (Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio) will win the White House, we would also say that the winner of the Tempest in Tempe will win the popular vote and — probably — the election.

If there is no winner in Wednesday's final debate, or if President Bush wins the Tempest in Tempe, John Kerry will likely have to find some other avenue to position himself for 270+ electoral votes, and we can't imagine what that would be. (But just because we can't imagine it doesn't mean it doesn't exist …)

No one has a definitive sense of which side will have the better ground game, and no one ever will (until, maybe, on election day).

If you haven't mastered the politics of the Colorado ballot measure that would change the state's electoral vote formula, act now — before it is too late. (Note to legal types: could y'all e-mail us your sense of the applicable case law that will be bandied about if this thing passes — and is inevitably challenged?). politicalunit@abcnews.com

The capacity of Kerry advisers — old and new — to talk explicitly and on the record about what voting groups they are trying to win over with certain actions and statements is just an amazing thing to behold.

We miss Bob Shrum in the spin room — we really do.

At this point, John Kerry's re-introduction of the bunker-busting bomb "debate" into this race has been about as effective as his capacity to explain his health care plan in a politically beneficial manner. Now think about that (as Bill Clinton would say . . .).

Although certain news executives and anchors (and at least one presidential candidate . . . ) will continue to pay lip service to the Notion of this as "the most important election of our lifetime blah blah blah," most of their attention for the next ten days or so will be on the Yankees-Red Sox series.

In fact, the ratings for the Yankees-Red Sox game on Wednesday will be boffo — likely benefiting the former team owner who leads the race.

A valuable window into the BC04 strategy might well have been what Karl Rove told those Nevada television stations right after Friday's debate in custom two-ways — or maybe the window just comes from the fact that he did those, rather than spin the national press.

Kerry advisers promise the "Full Yucca" is yet to come, but wethinks whatever it is, it might be a bit late and off-kilter.

We doubt anyone will hold Senator Kerry to his pledge to speak about religious faith and values before election day.

Anyone who underestimates how angry African-American voters in Florida are about 2000, or who somehow thinks that Democrats won't figure out a way to turn that anger into a potentially insurmountable turnout on election day, might be making a mistake.

The weather in key states on election day could effect turnout as much as 600 Ken Mehlman field troops or 600 ACT organizers.

The New York Times Magazine is available on Thursdays each week — for those of you doing rapid response, take Note.

In fact, on this day, when President Bush and Senator Kerry share New Mexico in the midday, and about 96 hours after the Magazine hit the streets, the Bush campaign has a new ad it released late Sunday criticizing Senator John Kerry for telling the Times that he wants to get back to a time when terrorism is just a "nuisance."

The Kerry campaign has responded with its own ad which includes, among other things, footage of Bush's telling Matt Lauer on "Today" that he doesn't believe the war on terror can be won. LINK and LINK

The other story that could move things around rhetorically today is in a certain West Coast paper.

Per the Los Angeles Times' Mark Mazzetti, "the Bush administration plans to delay major assaults on rebel-held cities in Iraq until after U.S. elections in November, say administration officials, mindful that large-scale military offensives could affect the U.S. presidential race." LINK

"'When this election's over, you'll see us move very vigorously,' said one senior administration official involved in strategic planning, speaking on condition of anonymity."

"'Once you're past the election, it changes the political ramifications' of a large-scale offensive, the official said. 'We're not on hold right now. We're just not as aggressive.'"

Bush advisers are already saying the story isn't true this morning.

With only two days to go until the third, and final, presidential debate, President Bush holds an 11:05 am ET rally in Hobbs, NM; helps raise money for Pete Coors' Senate campaign in Denver, CO at 2:20 pm ET; and holds a rally in Denver, CO at 7:00 pm ET. Sunday on "Meet the Press," Pete Coors suggested Congress would not have voted to authorize a war in Iraq if the members had known "what we know today." LINK

Senator John Kerry holds a noon ET town hall meeting in Santa Fe, NM on the topic of energy independence. He spends the rest of the day preparing for Wednesday's domestic policy debate in Tempe, AZ.

Senator John Edwards holds an 11:00 am ET town hall meeting in Newton, IA and a 6:00 pm ET rally in Kansas City, MO. The highly visible Edwards, who appeared on all five Sunday shows in an act of Full Ginsbergity, will be Jay Leno's guest on Tuesday, the night before the final presidential debate. LINK and LINK

At noon ET today, the Senate is expected to approve a corporate tax bill that would give nearly $140 billion in business breaks over the next decade. The measure was stalled on Sunday until an agreement was reached to vote Monday on a proposal by Senator Mary Landrieu to give employers a 50 percent tax credit for up to $30,000 if they make up the pay their employees lose when they are called to active duty in the Reserves or Guard. The measure will then be sent to the House where GOP leaders are opposed. LINK and LINK and LINK

On Tuesday, Edwards does Leno and campaigns in Colorado, San Francisco and Oregon; Bush campaigns in Colorado and Arizona; Kerry has an open press arrival in Phoenix, AZ; and Cheney campaigns in Iowa.

On Wednesday, Bush and Kerry debate at Arizona State University in Tempe, AZ, and attend post-debate rallies; Edwards campaigns in Oregon and Iowa; Cheney does a bus tour of Pennsylvania.

On Thursday, Bush holds a rally with governors in Las Vegas before campaigning in Reno, NV and Central Point, OR; Kerry addresses the AARP in Las Vegas before campaigning in Des Moines, IA with Edwards; Cheney campaigns in Florida.

On Friday, Cheney does a bus tour in Michigan; Kerry campaigns in Minnesota or Wisconsin; Bush and Edwards' schedules: TBD.

ABC News Vote 2004: the Tempest in Tempe:

The Arizona Republic lets locals know where they can find the candidates and show their support after the debate: Bush at Bank One Ballpark; Kerry at Tempe Town Lake. LINK

An editorial in ASU's State Press Notes the huge presence of the news media descending upon campus, as well as what you can do if you can't get into the debate: "then head to the Wells Fargo Arena and hang out with 9,999 of your closest friends." Or, students can stick to the regular "going to school and drinking beer afterward." LINK

Security at ASU and in Tempe is getting beefed up for the arrival of the presidential candidates. LINK

Newsweek's Richard Wolffe writes about the theatrics involved in the debate expectations game and post-debate spin, Noting, "There's little hope that this week's final debate in Arizona will be any less antagonistic." LINK

Josh Gerstein of the New York Sun reports a state judge in Arizona has ordered a hearing on whether the third presidential debate, scheduled for Wednesday, should be halted "because the Libertarian Party's nominee for president has not been invited." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:

Walter Shapiro advises, "If Kerry succeeds in making the name Bush synonymous with one-term presidents, then historians may hark back to Friday night's second presidential debate as one of the pivotal moments that shaped his new administration. Nothing suggests that the debate did more than solidify the too-close-to-call nature of the contest." LINK

Bob Novak writes that, at the second debate, President Bush "concentrated on imprinting the scarlet letter 'L' (for liberal) on his Democratic challenger's chest. Whether or not he succeeds may determine who is elected." LINK

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Sabatini reports, "Tax proposals set forth by President Bush and Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry share one overriding theme: Both would add billions to the swollen federal deficit." LINK

On Sunday, the Los Angeles Times' Reynolds and Finnegan had an excellent wrap of the candidates' sparring this weekend. LINK

On Saturday, the Washington Post 's David S. Broder looked at how Iraq and the Philly Suburbs are messing up BC04 re-elect campaign in battleground Pennsylvania. LINK

Time magazine has a good look at the campaigns' ground wars. LINK

The New York Times ' James Bennett on Sunday looked at why the candidates dislike each other so much — despite their similar patrician and Elie backgrounds.

The New York Daily News looks at this election's star power — with celebrity endorsements from Newman to Damon; Stein to Newton. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

The New York Times ' David Sanger writes that President Bush has taken the standard for invading another country from imminent threat to capacity to intention with respect to his campaign statements about Iraq. LINK

Elisabeth Bumiller on the Gersonian poetry moving in — and out — and back into Bush's stump speech and Karl Rove's not-so-hidden hand. LINK

Dana Milbank looks at David Addington, Cheney's counsel who has pushed executive power. "LINK

The AP takes up the unsubstantiated chatter that Bush was wired during the first debate. LINK

Bill Safire on why Bush won Round 2. LINK

In the New York Times , Robert Pear and Robin Toner write that the new Medicare law has run into difficulties because "its emphasis on private market forces and consumer choice has made it too complicated for many elderly beneficiaries," according to experts and advocates. What's more, bitterness continues over the cost estimates used to justify the law's passage. LINK

John Harwood looks at Newt Gingrich's gratification at Bush's turn to an ideological argument against Kerry.

"On the stump and in Friday night's town-hall debate with Senator John Kerry in St. Louis, the Republican incumbent has begun tagging his Democratic challenger as a 'tax-and-spend liberal' in contrast with Mr. Bush's own 'compassionate conservative' philosophy. Such rhetoric has cheered Republicans outside the campaign who have urged Bush strategists to move beyond character attacks grounded in Mr. Kerry's alleged policy flip-flops."

The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board says this year's employment progress favorably rivals 1996.

The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign has released two ads since last Friday — one focusing on the jobs numbers that came out that day and the second hitting Kerry on quotes from that interview with the New York Times Magazine.

In his ad spotlight on Bush's "two million" jobs spot, the New York Times ' Dick Stevenson writes that "'nearly two million' new jobs may sound like a lot to voters who do not follow economic statistics closely, and if nothing else the commercial could help Mr. Bush to paint Mr. Kerry as a pessimist if he talks about the economy in negative terms." LINK

BC04 released an ad Sunday, "World View," that hits Senator Kerry on hits Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism and ends with the question, "How can Kerry protect us when he doesn't understand the threat."

The ad will run on national cable and on the Bush-Cheney '04 website (www.georgewbush.com LINK) — NOT on local stations in battleground states at this point.

Script:

Voice Over:First, Kerry said defeating terrorism was really MORE about law enforcement and intelligence than a strong military operation … More about law enforcement than a strong military?Now Kerry says … We have to get back to the place where terrorists are a nuisance like gambling and prostitution … we're never going to end them.Terrorism … a nuisance?How can Kerry protect us when he doesn't understand the threat?

President Bush: I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message.

President Bush will campaign with U.S. Senate candidate Pete Coors in Denver, CO today before meeting up with retired Gen. Tommy Franks at Red Rocks. LINK

As many as 17,000 are expected to attend the president's rally in New Mexico today, reports the Albuquerque Journal. LINK

The DNC is launching a New Mexico specific ad to bracket the president's visit running yesterday, today, and tomorrow in Albuquerque and Roswell and could possibly be expanded to Las Cruces. You can check out the ad here. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:

ABC News' Ed O'Keefe reports that former President Bill Clinton campaign for Senator John Kerry in the final push to election day. According to the campaign, Clinton will campaign "as doctors see fit." The former President will likely campaign in African-American communities and in other GOTV efforts. Clinton will also likely participate in radio ads, robo calls and direct mail efforts.

The New York Times Jim Dwyer on the "rekindled fervor" of African-American voters. LINK

"The voters interviewed — habitual Democrats, for the most part — spoke about John Kerry with polite reserve, as if he were a distant cousin, more rumor, so far, than actual family relation. 'I guess he's all right, but he's no Bill Clinton, downright homey-like,' said Eddie West, a maintenance worker with the Salvation Army in Jacksonville."

The Miami Herald writes up Senator Kerry's trip to Florida on Sunday to woo African-American voters and the Miami Herald editorial board, where he promised to work with allies that do business in Cuba to pressure Fidel Castro. LINK

Knight Ridder's James Kuhnhenn Notes, "Sounding almost preacher-like at the Friendship Missionary Baptist Church, Kerry summoned more Biblical references than he usually does with church audiences." LINK

Rev. Jesse Jackson joined Kerry in Florida. "Never again will a million African-Americans be denied their right to exercise the vote in the United States of America," the Catholic candidate told Sunday morning attendees of Friends Missionary Baptist Church in Miami. LINK

The Washington Post 's Mike Allen writes up Kerry's efforts to reach socially conservative black voters on Sunday. LINK

The New York Times ' Jodi Wilgoren on Kerry bringing together Sharpton and Jackson: LINK

"Black leadership can't act like the Crips and the Bloods," the Reverend Al Sharpton said Sunday, extending the olive branch to Reverend Jesse Jackson. LINK

"Kerry, Jackson tell blacks to ignore gay 'marriage' issue," headlines the Washington Times . LINK

The Washington Times looks at the differences between Kerry and Bush's positions on health care concluding, "But all of that — like the overall direction of health care in the country — depends largely on what happens at the ballot box in a few short weeks." LINK

The Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson takes Note of former Boston mayor and U.S. ambassador to the Vatican (and Kerry's former political ally) Raymond Flynn's full-page ad in the Sunday New York Times insisting the Junior Senator from Massachusetts would nominate only people who support abortion rights to be justices on the Supreme Court should he be elected President. LINK

All four opinion pieces in the Wall Street Journal today are worth reading — Stephen Moore on Kerry and taxes, Roger Pilon on drug re-importation, Michael Gonzalez on Afghanistan, and Hugo Restall on flip-flopping.

The KE04 campaign is having some trouble with the now-controversial New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Gov "has refused to release more than a token amount of state Democratic money for voter-turnout efforts on behalf of the party's presidential ticket in New Jersey." LINK

The Washington Post 's Mark Leibovich looks at the Kerry road show and how the campaign's issues focus is shifting toward domestic issues. LINK

The New York Times ' Randy Archibold looks at Senator Edwards' media profile. Coming off of The View, Regis & Kelly and five Sunday shows, Edwards will, as we said above, do Jay Leno on Tuesday. The Kerry campaign says Edwards does very well among women and independent women — two key groups. LINK

The Washington Post 's Chris Jenkins writes about Senator Edwards' full Ginsberg (that's William, not David) on Sunday, during which he answered questions about Afghanistan, tort reform and Iraq. "An Edwards aide said Sunday that in the week after his debate with Vice President Cheney, Edwards has been called on to take a more prominent role in disputing Republican accusations and solidifying the women's vote, which Democrats were becoming increasingly concerned about several weeks ago." LINK

As many as to 62 stations owned or managed by the Sinclair broadcasting group will preempt regularly scheduled programming to show a documentary highly critical of John Kerry. The New York Times reports that "aides to Mr. Kerry said he would not accept Sinclair's invitation" to respond after the documentary is shown. LINK

On Sunday, the New York Times ' Robert Worth looked at Kerry's childhood summers spent in St.-Briac-Sur-Mer, France. LINK

Stephanie Mansfield of the Washington Times reports swift boat veterans who oppose John Kerry's candidacy are picking up steam for a final campaign stretch offensive. Over the weekend they shot enough footage for two or three more ads, Mansfield reports the Swiftees plan to run "starting Thursday in Pennsylvania and Ohio and in a few heavily military areas of Florida." LINK

Bart Janson of the Portland Press Herald profiles the man whose firm is behind the production of provocative campaign ads including the now-infamous swift boat ads, Greg Stevens — who loves Maine more than Washington. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the Electoral College:

The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein keys off the Colorado ballot initiative to look at the long standing arguments for and against moving to a more proportional Electoral College system. LINK

In Sunday's Washington Post , Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei offered an assessment of the battlegrounds and the state of the race for 270 electoral votes that makes a lot of sense to us and mostly tracks with our reporting. LINK

Our new ratings have John Kerry edging out George Bush by 18 electoral votes (231 to 213) with 94 electoral votes up for grabs.

However, as of today, President Bush is in a stronger position in enough of the toss-up states to remain at least a slight favorite in this close race.

In addition, almost all of the "Republican leaning" states are safer for President Bush than the 5 states we rate as "Democratic leaning" are for Kerry.

We have 20 states as "likely Republican" states and 11 states plus the District of Columbia as "likely Democrat" states, bringing the base electoral vote counts to 166 for President Bush and 168 for Senator Kerry.

We have nudged, or forced, five of the remaining states into Bush's column and five into Kerry's column — making some tough calls about where currently close states will likely end up when the voting actually happens.

The changes reflected below since our last Electoral College ratings update (8/29/04) are:

* Colorado (9 electoral votes) moved from "leaning Republican" to "toss-up." * Minnesota (10 electoral votes) moved from "toss-up" to "leaning Democratic."

As always, our Electoral College ratings are a combination of our current sense of where things stand in each state, plus a projection to where we think things will be headed by election day. For obvious reasons, we don't base this exclusively on the latest state polls.

Of course, states can (and likely will) shift category over the course of the next couple of weeks. We are left with nine states (representing a total of 94 electoral votes) still very much up for grabs, and with both sides short of the magic 270.

TOSS-UPS:

(9 states - 94 electoral votes)

REPUBLICAN LEANING:

(5 states -- 47 electoral votes)

DEMOCRATIC LEANING:

(5 states -- 63 electoral votes)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN STATES:

(20 states -- 166 electoral votes)

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC STATES:

(12 states -- 168 electoral votes)

NEEDED TO WIN: 270 electoral votes

ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting:

The New York Times urges its readers to be vigilant about voting rights LINK

USA Today 's Jim Drinkard reports, "Federal and state election officials are worried that changes made after the 2000 presidential race to ensure that voters are not turned away from the polls could lead to more confusion and court fights this year." LINK

The AP on problems with provisional ballots, nationwide. LINK

The Chicago Tribune reports, "With a push from Congress, the Pentagon is going to great lengths to ensure that U.S. service members can vote this year, wherever they are. And with foreign policy, the Iraq war and terrorism among the top campaign issues, more fighting men and women are expected to have their say in who will be commander in chief." LINK

"But whether a significant number of military votes will go uncounted, as they did in Florida in the 2000 election, remains an open question."

The St. Petersburg Times' political editor Adam Smith compares Glenda Hood to Katherine Harris in a news analysis. LINK

The Tampa Tribune says that the state of Florida still lags behind in fixing casting and counting problems. LINK

Gregory Kesich of the Portland Press Herald writes about the anticipated ballot fights in Maine and how both parties are handling the recruitment of lawyers and workers for the effort. LINK

Advocates are making sure homeless people are registered to vote too, reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK

Newsweek takes a big look at whether your vote will be counted or not — which could change your mind no matter what you think right now. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the Big Four battlegrounds: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin:

The Los Angeles Times also looks at how memories of 2000 are inspiring stepped-up efforts to woo black voters in Florida. LINK

The wonderful David Lightman of the Hartford Courant mentioned to us last week how many Jewish voters he surveyed in South Florida were suddenly taking a second look at Republicans. Today, the Palm Beach Post in Florida notices the trend. LINK

More: "'The situation has attracted the attention of John Kerry's presidential campaign, which has deployed Charles Glick, from the Democrat's home state of Massachusetts, to serve as director of Jewish outreach for South Florida,'" the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports. LINK

"'The Republicans have made major inroads with respect to Jewish voters,' he told Democrats at a Palm Beach County party meeting last week. 'If they get 40 percent, it would be devastating. If they get 30 percent they could win the election. We need to keep them under 20 percent.'"

The Miami Herald 's Lesley Clark writes that "When President Bush made repeated trips to hurricane-racked Florida to comfort those affected by the storms, the White House flatly rejected suggestions that the appearances were in any way political." LINK

"But Gov. Jeb Bush and the Republican Party of Florida aren't shying away from mixing storms and politics. A picture of the governor, the public face of Florida's relief efforts, anchors a mailer that urges voting by mail ''for our Republican team,' noting ''many of our citizens are suffering from the devastation of multiple hurricanes.''

The St. Petersburg Times' Wes Allison takes an interesting look at how conservative Christians are mobilizing in Florida against what they regard as a government and a media hostile to their beliefs by organizing efforts to re-elect the president. LINK

USA Today 's Kathy Kiely dives into Florida's Pinellas County to find things still pretty deeply split. LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Bill Glauber uses a Bush campaign rally in Allentown, PA, to walk us through the days of preparation that go into a 44-minute visit by the candidate. LINK

The Hartford Courant's David Lightman discovers that despite a very real sense of economic despair in parts of Ohio, some voters are reluctant to commit to Senator Kerry. LINK

How would you like to be living in Toledo during this campaign? "Between March and late September, 14,273 commercials about the presidential race aired on Toledo's four leading TV stations, according to the ad tracking firm TNSI/Campaign Media Analysis Group of Arlington.," writes the Washington Post 's Paul Farhi, who Notes that it's the "most advertised-to market of any in the big battleground states." LINK

The Cleveland Plain Dealer takes a look at the courting of the Arab-American vote. LINK

The Cleveland Plain Dealer also looks at the "recovering porn addict," Phil Burress, who is the chief architect and proponent for the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage to appear on the Nov. 2 ballot in Ohio. LINK

Alan Johnson of the Columbus Dispatch reports Gov. Taft is expected to make his views known on State Issue 1 "early this week." Both Republican U.S. Senators and the Republican State Attorney General are all opposed to the amendment mostly due to the second sentence, which they see is overreaching. LINK

Here's how that controversial sentence reads: "This state and its political subdivisions shall not create or recognize a legal status for relationships of unmarried individuals that intends to approximate the design, qualities, significance or effect of marriage."

Attention Mark Lux: Jennifer Palmieri is looking to get in touch with you. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz takes a great look at the exceptionally tough fight over the purple state of Iowa, the state of professional voters that launched Kerry into the presidential race, and where both Republicans and Democrats are playing a good ground game. LINK

Thomas Beaumont of the Des Moines Register on Iowa's contribution to the war in Iraq and how it will affect local voters. LINK

Erin Neff of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports on Tommy Franks' visit to Henderson Sunday, where he defended the rationale for war while campaigning for President Bush. LINK

David Jacobs of the Reno Gazette-Journal writes about how the Silver State is one of the best bellwethers in presidential elections, having only selected the wrong president once since 1912. LINK

The Denver Post Notes the Kerry rebound from a "mid-September slump" and says. "Coloradans wanting evidence of their status of the campaign need look no further than the personal attention Kerry and Bush are giving the state, which is emerging as a potential president-maker." LINK

It's front-page coverage just like this in today's Albuquerque Journal that campaigns plan for when they choose debate prep locales. LINK

Nader-Camejo:

Anne E. Kornblut of the Boston Globe Notes, "Eight months after Ralph Nader announced his bid for the presidency, touching off a frenzied legal campaign by Democrats to keep him off the ballot in crucial battlegrounds, the third-party candidate is struggling to match his 2000 performance but has secured a slot in enough important states to potentially affect the outcome if there is a close contest on Nov. 2, according to an analysis of the current data and strategists in both parties. LINK

Jim Brunner of the Seattle Times reports on Ralph Nader's visit to the Beaver State Sunday night where he denounced Kerry and fellow Democrats as "sniveling political cowards" for not opposing Iraq more strongly.LINK

The politics of Iraq:

Iraqis are fearing a Sunni boycott of the election, the New York Times reports. LINK

The Washington Post 's Sebastian Mallaby looks at how Bush and Kerry would differ on Iraq from this point forward and comes down for Bush. LINK

On Sunday, the Washington Post 's Glenn Kessler had a good look at how Bush has "reframed the way he characterizes his rationale for" invading Iraq. LINK

In the New York Times ' Sunday Week in Review, David Sanger looked at the pivotal decision the Bush campaign made in choosing to express a hopeful message about the Middle East instead of admitting any errors. LINK

The politics of Afghanistan:

The Washington Post 's ed board praises the Afghan election as evidence of Bush success. LINK

The economy:

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman takes a lengthy look at the rise of the "contingent" work force — those with jobs classified as "temporary," as opposed to longer term, stable full-time jobs that are increasingly elusive for some.LINK

"Since January 2002, the nation added 369,000 temp positions, about half of the private-sector jobs created during that stretch. Temporary jobs accounted for one-third of the 96,000 jobs added to the economy in September. In 1982, there were 417,000 workers classified as temporary help. Today, there are more than 2.5 million, according to Labor Department data. . . . That is about equal to the number of manufacturing jobs lost in the past decade."

ABC News Vote 2004: the Senate:

The Wall Street Journal 's David Rogers writes — in a lyric but pro forma look at the South Dakota Senate race — that Democrats are hopeful that they can win Senate seats in Illinois, Alaska, Oklahoma and Colorado. At the same time, they are hoping to hold their losses in the South to two seats. But if Daschle loses in South Dakota, the Democrats' hope of Senate control go out the window.

The Washington Post 's Peter Slevin trails Illinois Senate candidate Barack Obama as he hits the road for other Democrats, including John Kerry.LINK

The Washington Post 's T.R. Reid writes up the "Meet the Press" Colorado Senate debate, during which Pete Coors suggested that Congress would not have voted to authorize a war in Iraq if the members had known "what we know today" about weapons of mass destruction. He said the US should be more concerned about Iran and North Korea. President Bush is scheduled to attend a Coors fundraiser in Colorado today. LINK

The Rocky Mountain News offers and excellent primer on where Salazar and Coors stand. LINK

The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill reports, "Three weeks before Election Day, North Carolina's U.S. Senate race has turned increasingly testy. One reason: It's gotten much closer." LINK

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks at the interesting circumstances of the Specter/Hoeffel race. "In a U.S. Senate race loaded with irony, the Jewish peddler's son is the Republican, while the prep school product is the Democrat." LINK

"In the most recent Pennsylvania Poll, 26 percent of respondents said they will vote for the other party's Senate candidate, which was double the defection rate in the presidential race."

ABC News Vote 2004: the House:

In USA Today , Carl Weiser reports on how the line makers have taken all of the fun out of House races. LINK

On the Hill:

The highway bill is still in limbo, the Washington Post 's Dan Morgan reports. LINK

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman writes that the Senate will vote today on the corporate tax bill after Senator Mary Landrieu's objections were accommodated late Sunday. LINK

The New York Times on Ronnie Earle, the prosecutor going after Tom DeLay in Texas. LINK

Politics:

"Political passions are running high these days, and plenty of media people are feeling under siege. In an era of partisan Web sites and attack e-mails, what might once have been dismissed as a minor misjudgment or harmless joke becomes, in the eyes of some critics, a capital offense," writes the Washington Post 's Howard Kurtz. LINK

The Washington Post 's Ceci Connolly looks at South Dakotans concerned about rising health care costs who have not heard enough from the candidates on the issue. LINK

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):

—9:15 am: Elizabeth Edwards holds a town hall discussion at the YMCA, Columbus, OH

—10:00 am: The Senate reconvenes for legislative business

—10:30 am: Vice President Cheney participates in a rally at Lenape High School, Medford, NJ

—10:30 am: Peggy Kerry holds a Women for Kerry Breakfast at Jose Maria Mexican Foods, Alamogordo, NM

—11:00 am: Lesbian and gay activists, including Chrissy Gephardt, hold a rally on National Coming Out Day, Washington, DC

—11:00 am: Sen. John Edwards holds a town hall meeting at Newton High School, Newton, IA

—11:00 am: The National Columbus Celebration Association and the National Park Service hold the official national Columbus Day Ceremony to celebrate the achievements of explorer Christopher Columbus, Washington, DC

—11:05 am: President George Bush attends Victory 04 Rally in Hobbs, NM

—12:00 pm: Sen. John Kerry holds a town hall meeting at the Sweeney Center, Santa Fe, NM

—12:00 pm: The Senate votes on the corporate jobs report Conference Report and by voice on the Military Construction Appropriations and Homeland Security Appropriations Conference Reports

—1:00 pm: Elizabeth Edwards holds a town hall discussion at the South Side Market House, Pittsburgh, PA

—1:30 pm: Peggy Kerry holds a Women for Kerry event at K-Bob's Steak House, Ruidoso, NM

—2:00 pm: Teresa Heinz Kerry delivers the keynote address at the National Congress of the American Indians Convention, Fort Lauderdale, FL

—2:20 pm: President Bush attends a "Coors for Senate" Luncheon, in Denver, CO

—2:20 pm: Vice President Cheney participates in a rally at the Clermont County Airport, Batavia, OH

—3:00 pm: Ralph Nader holds a rally followed by a book signing for "Crashing the Party" at UC Davis, Davis, CA

—5:00 pm: Peggy Kerry holds a Women for Kerry event at the home of Rosie Rubio, Roswell, NM

—6:00 pm: Sen. Edwards holds a rally at Barney Allis Plaza, Kansas City, MO

—6:00 pm: Ralph Nader holds a rally followed by a book signing for "Crashing the Party" at San Francisco State, San Francisco, CA

—6:30 pm: The "Vote for Change" grand finale concert takes place at the MCI Center featuring Bruce Springsteen, Dave Matthews, Dixie Chicks, Pearl Jam, REM, John Fogerty, and others, Washington, DC

—7:00 pm: President Bush holds a rally at Red Rocks Park and Amphitheatre, Morrison, CO

—8:10 pm: Sen. Edwards holds a closed-to-cameras DNC fundraiser at a private residence, Kansas City, MO

—10:00 pm: Ralph Nader holds a rally followed by a book signing for "Crashing the Party" at UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA