The Note: Ooo and It's Alright and It's Comin' 'Long
WASHINGTON, Oct. 18, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
15 days until Election Day
NEWS SUMMARY
Is a fortnight and a day enough time for the Gang of 500 to deal with substance, subtlety, and serious stuff?
Probably not.
We are keeping up as best we can, but beyond the horserace and the obsessive focus on the Big Ten states, there only is time for major phenomena, and sweeping through from Friday night through Monday morning, here are the two most major:
1. By nearly every credible indication available, President Bush seems to have moved, post-debates, into a small but potentially meaningful lead over Senator Kerry.
2. Senator Kerry has begun to make false negative attacks against President Bush a much more central part of his campaign than before, moving toward parity with the president on this front.
Those are the "Whats." The "Whys" are a little harder to unearth.
As for the polling that shows the president ahead, here is what the Chattering Class believes about it:
A. Because the polls moved slightly in Bush's favor after the debates, there must be a reason, and the only two reasons they have been able to come up with are (i) the Mary Cheney remark; and/or (ii) the nation, having considered the totality of the debate round robin, decided it wanted a steady, likeable leader — rather than a voluble debating champion — to be the honcho of the free world.
We have no idea if those are the reasons, but that's the best anyone has offered that has smacked against our ears.
B. If the 2-8 point public poll lead persists for much longer, we will begin to hear the Gillespie/Devenish/McClellan/Schmidt/Dowd mantra — explaining everything John Kerry does as attributable to his desperation now that he has fallen behind (while simultaneously asserting that the race will be close, so as not to appear overconfident or discourage supporters from turning out . . . ).
C. The Class continues to watch (i) whether Bush is above 50 percent in the horserace; (ii) Kerry's fav/unfav; (iii) whether the president's job approval number is at or above 50 percent; and (iv) wrong track. All of those are more important than the horserace itself.
D. If more people (regardless of whom they support) don't start telling pollsters that they believe Kerry WILL win, he probably can't.
E. The biggest danger to the Kerry campaign is not simply being behind in the polls, but the Gang of 500's own creeping impression based on the public polls that he is indeed behind. (We love it when the Gang analyzes the implications of its own thoughts and feelings on the wider population!!!)
F. In a rare moment of clarity, the Class also suspects that even America's finest pollsters cannot be sure they have found the right "likely voter" screen in a year with unprecedented efforts to register new voters.
And who knows what effect the Kerry campaign's belated decision to overcome the goo-goo impulses of (shudder!!) Tad Devine and Bob Shrum and go negative is having?
Kerry's over-the-top efforts — on the stump and reinforced with paid media — include over-the-line allegations regarding the draft, the supply of flu vaccine, and Social Security.
As with the more extreme Bush lines attacking Kerry, there is some truth underlying the charges, but the Bush people have a good case to call them lies and scare tactics.
The military is currently overextended; any incumbent administration bears some responsibility for things such as the vaccine supply; and President Bush has never acknowledged that the very purpose of the type of Social Security reform he supports is to lower the guaranteed minimum benefit paid to future beneficiaries in order to take pressure off of the trust fund, and that in the transition period there would be an enormous shortfall that would have to come from general revenue or some changes in benefits.
But the president has said repeatedly that he has no intention of reinstating the draft (and Congress wouldn't go along with it, even if he did); the roots of vaccine shortage are not unambiguous; and the Social Security scare tactics that are de rigueur for Democratic campaigns — and are just starting to be trotted out — are, as the Bush campaign rightly points out, based on the thinnest of "sourcing" from a journalist whose record of going after the Bush Administration is well established — and the president has ruled out any cuts in benefits or private accounts for current retirees or those close to retirement.
Of course, the mirror image of all this continues to be the Bush campaign's attacks on Senator Kerry on health care, taxes, and the right to use unilateral force.
All three Bush charges are under girded by some reality — Senator Kerry's proposals on health care would indeed be enormously expensive, and there are real questions about how parts of it would be effectively administered; Senator Kerry's overall philosophy — despite occasional flirtations with fiscal restraint-- has been to increase taxes to pay for bigger government; and the Bay Stater's frequent "votes and quotes" before and after he entered the presidential race put him clearly on the opposite of a divide from President Bush regarding the balance between unilateralism and multilateralism.
But the hyped-up rhetorical charges ("government takeover" of health care; Kerry will have no choice but to raise taxes on the middle class; and "global test") go well beyond the evidence and remain central to the president's closing message.
The president's campaign continues to try to win by distorting, taking things out of context, and making purposeful misstatements about Kerry's record and statements. Kerry's campaign is now doing many of the same things. Both campaigns should expect equally aggressive reporting on misrepresentations.
Of course, it's up to the president and Senator Kerry to defend themselves. But with all of these allegations flying on both sides of the fence, it goes without saying that the stakes are very high for the country and the campaigns — and the media's responsibilities are quite grave for these last two weeks.
The press has the responsibility to hold both sides accountable to the public interest. That's why unbiased vigilance is required every day, the rest of the way, for both sides. Further, the press cannot be afraid to point out when one campaign is more aggressively misrepresenting the facts than the other, even when charges of "unbalanced press coverage" come flying in from partisan observers.
Today:
Peter Jennings will be on the road this week with "World News Tonight," taking the show to where the voters are. This evening, he will be in Kansas City, MO, where everything is up to date and where the show will focus on the ground war for every vote.
Mr. Jennings will also have the latest data from the ABC News/ Washington Post tracking poll.
On the day when voters begin casting their ballots in both Florida and Colorado, President Bush travels to New Jersey, a state Al Gore won by 15 percentage points, to deliver a major speech ("a really important speech," in Nicolle Devenish's words this morning on "Fox and Friends") on the war on terror — before traveling to Florida for the second time in three days.
Before he travels to Marlton, NJ for the terrorism speech (1:15 pm ET), President Bush signs the Homeland Security Appropriations Act at 9:05 pm ET and congratulates the Olympic and Paralympic teams at the White House at 10:00 am ET. He heads to Boca Raton this afternoon to preposition for Tuesday events and for a closed RNC fundraising dinner at 6:05 pm ET.
Senator Kerry spends his entire day in Florida, attending early vote rallies in West Palm Beach (9:30 am ET) and Orlando (6:00 pm ET) and delivering a health care speech in which he will, in the words of his campaign, accuse the president of being "out of touch with the struggles of the middle class and [lacking] a plan to help."
Vice President and Lynne Cheney are in West Virginia and Pennsylvania today, attending a roundtable discussion in Charleston at 10:55 pm and a town hall meeting at in Johnstown, PA at 1:30 pm ET.
Senator John Edwards holds a town hall meeting on health care at Centennial Park in Ft. Meyers, FL (9:30 pm ET), before heading to Philadelphia for a second town hall at Haverford College in Haverford, PA (3:30 pm ET), and a rally at the Sheet Metal Workers Local 19 Hall in Philadelphia (6:55 pm ET).
Laura Bush speaks at the International Lion of Judah Conference at the Washington Hilton Hotel (1:00 pm ET) and speaks at an RNC fundraiser in Oldwick, NJ (6:30 pm ET).
Teresa Heinz Kerry holds a conversation on the environment at the Sea Coast Science Center, Rye, NH (2:00 pm ET).
Elizabeth Edwards meets with early voters in several locations in Denver, CO and a town hall meeting with early voters at Mesa State College in Grand Junction, CO (5:00 pm ET).
Former Vice President Al Gore delivers his final major policy speech of the campaign season, the last in a series sponsored by MoveOn.org and MoveOn PAC, at Georgetown University in Washington, DC (12:30 pm ET).
Former President George H.W. Bush and former First Lady, Barbara Bush cast their early vote at the Multi-Service Center in Houston, TX (11:15 am ET).
The League of Conservation Voters announces a multimillion-dollar single-state ad campaign in Florida.
This week:
On Tuesday, President Bush attends rallies in St. Petersburg, New Port Richey, and The Villages, FLA. After a three day jaunt in Florida, Senator Kerry travels to Pennsylvania, where he campaigns throughout the day, before heading to Iowa for an early evening event. The Cheneys participate in a bus tour through Ohio, the first of many for the running mates this week. Senator Edwards campaigns in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Laura Bush appears on ABC's "Live with Regis and Kelly", speaks at the Preserve America Teacher of the Year in New York City, and attends a rally in Primos, PA.
On Wednesday President Bush campaigns in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Senator Kerry makes stops in Waterloo, IA, Pittsburgh, PA, and Columbus, OH. Senator Edwards rolls through Ohio on his second bus tour through the state this campaign season. He overnights in Burlington, IA.
On Thursday, Senator Kerry plans on duck hunting in the Youngstown, Ohio area. In New York, meanwhile, former President Bush and New York Gov. Hugh L. Carey sub for the principals at the Alfred E. Smith memorial dinner.
And by the middle of the week, the conservative Progress for America Voter Fund will announce a $12 million buy to broadcast a single ad in key battleground states. It's part of their $15 million final push. PFAVF has been one of the most prolific media 527 of the third quarter and their influence in battleground states has probably been understated.
ABC News Vote 2004: the polls:
ABC News: Bush 50, Kerry 46, Nader 2 (likely)
ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer reports: "After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday."
Langer also Notes that Bush "has expectations working for him."
"Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side."
"One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal — an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives."
The ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate … Fewer than might be expected, three in 10 Nader supporters, are liberals; 24 percent are conservatives and 40 percent moderates. They're younger overall." They are also "less well off," Langer Notes.
Washington Post : Bush 50, Kerry 46, Nader 2 (likely)
USA Today /CNN/Gallup Poll: Bush 52, Kerry 44 (likely)
Both Time and Newsweek show the president ahead also among likely voters.
Time: Bush 48, Kerry 46 (likely)
Newsweek: Bush 50, Kerry 44 (likely)
Time reports a statistical tie on who's more likable — with Senator Kerry showing a slight lead of 47 percent to Bush's 45.
This is the second week in a row Time reports Bush's approval rating is below 50 percent — though by mere sliver with the Bush approval rate coming in at 49 percent.
Everyone should be braced for NYT/CBS and WSJ/NBC data by the middle of the week.
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein provides an invaluable lesson on which polling numbers the campaigns are most focused. It's not so much the horserace between Kerry and Bush as it is looking at the president's job approval and vote share compared to the all important 50% benchmark. But, as with all things this cycle, history simply may not be the best guide. One thing is certain — there is very little room for error. LINK
Brownstein on why BC04 senior strategist Matthew Dowd is not all that concerned with the historic trends of job approval and vote share: "Dowd noted that Kerry has been unable to establish a clear lead over Bush in almost any poll, despite good reviews from viewers in all three debates. That pattern, like Kerry's failure to open a solid lead in polls after the well-received Democratic convention last July, suggested voters who were uncertain about Bush might remain hesitant to commit to the Democrat."
Respondents said the most important issues were economy (26 percent), terrorism (22 percent) and Iraq (20 percent). Of the debates Kerry is seen as the winner, 57 percent say the Senator won and 27 percent say President Bush. LINK
USA Today 's Susan Page: "After three debates that drew tens of millions of viewers, the president leads Kerry 52%-44% among likely voters, according to a USA TODAY /CNN/Gallup Poll taken Thursday through Saturday. That's a significant shift from Kerry's 1-percentage-point lead a week earlier. Among the larger group of registered voters, Bush leads 49%-46%. That's encouraging movement for Bush, but it's hardly a safe margin." LINK
"President Bush's rebound in a new national poll reflects growth in public confidence in his handling not only of terrorism, an established strength, but also traditionally Democratic issues such as health care and Social Security," reports USA Today 's Jim Drinkard. LINK
Time Magazine's Diana Pearson: "Kerry seemed more presidential during debates, but Bush still viewed as stronger commander-in-chief." LINK
Newsweek's Howard Fineman: "The combat is so ferocious in part because the race is where it's always been: too close to call--though there is evidence that Bush now has a narrow lead: 48-46 percent among registered voters, 50-44 percent among likely voters in Newsweek's new poll. Still, Bush's job-approval rating (often a harbinger of the incumbent's Election Day tally) is an ominously low 47 percent--and only 47 percent say they want to see him re-elected." LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's Schlesinger and Hitt: "A series of weekend polls showed President Bush pulling narrowly ahead of Democratic Senator John Kerry, but his re-election bid faces a new challenge: Americans are turning gloomier about the economy on the eve of the Nov. 2 vote. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Monday battleground update:
There are a lot of ways to describe the Electoral College battlefield. Right now, not all states are created equal — even within the Big 10 states we believe will decide this election.
That list — Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Colorado — is unlikely to change very much.
The first six listed will almost certainly be contested until the end; the last four MIGHT start to lean strong enough in one direction that they become somewhat less contested.
There are a handful of other states — New Jersey, Maine, Michigan, Oregon most prominently — that could become contested and competitive again, but that still looks unlikely.
Right now, those four are all looking like Kerry states, and if the president really begins to make a serious challenge there, he will win in a landslide — which is why we say that it is those first ten that will decide who wins.
Remember: no one knows who is going to turn out to vote — and which side has built the more effective turnout operations, state by state. So what might look like a close race — or a lead for one side — might not end up that way when the votes are cast.
The Note was, we say semi-proudly, among the first to point out the likelihood that the winner of two of three of the Big Three (Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio) would almost certainly take the White House, but it has become a dangerous myth and we are going to do our best to dispel it today. The president's Electoral College advantage shows that this isn't necessarily the case, at least not for Senator Kerry.
Allow us to play with those 10 states above.
Imagine if you will:
--John Kerry victories in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. (That would get him to 262 electoral votes.)
--George Bush victories in Florida, Wisconsin (perhaps the most likely state to turn from Blue to Red), and Colorado. (That would get him to 259 electoral votes.)
John Kerry would need to put some combination of two of the three remaining states (Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico) into his column. Yes, yes — the president would have to put two of those three in his column and Iowa would have to be one of them, but these three states currently seem to be giving the president a slight edge.
And that's a scenario giving Ohio to John Kerry, obviously not a certainty to say the very least.
Now, Senator Kerry could win Pennsylvania and Florida and lose Ohio which would complicate the president's path to 270 a bit more, but we won't run through those scenarios today as it seems somewhat less likely.
And, unlike for the president, it is near impossible to imagine a scenario where John Kerry loses two of those Big Three and still wins the White House. He could hold everything Gore won in 2000 and flip Nevada and New Hampshire from Red to Blue and still only end up at a tying 269 and losing in the House of Representatives.
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:
Another big weekend development: both campaigns (and the party committees) now say that they won't necessarily give the media heads-up about new ads. Tracking even "mainstream" voter communication thus becomes very, very hard. God speed, Howie and Jim.
USA Today 's team of Kasindorf, Kiely, Lawrence, Page, Keen, and Memmott produce a boffo overview of the state of the race, including insight on how much each campaign has left to spend and where they're likely to do it. LINK
"The Kerry campaign has $15 million to $25 million left to spend on TV ads, according to a USA TODAY analysis of campaign ad spending," and the "Bush campaign, which like Kerry's camp has accepted federal funding and its rules, has an estimated $10 million to $20 million left to spend on TV ads."
Walter Shapiro writes, "Just 15 days before the election, we have reached the point in the campaign when the exhaustion of the candidates and the reporters covering them, along with the mind-numbing repetition of the stump speeches, encourages a fascination with trivia, as long as the trivia is fresh." LINK
Dr. Brownstein dedicates his Washington Outlook column to the certainty that half the country will be pretty unhappy with the outcome of the election. LINK
The Hartford Courant's David Lightman on Sunday wrote that the presidential race could come down to how people feel about the quality of their lives, pure and simple. LINK
"The red view of life and the blue view of life are visible, not just in one state vs. another, but from city to city, neighborhood to neighborhood, house to house. In Arizona, there's booming Phoenix and, two hours down the road, teetering Tucson. There's struggling inner-city Philadelphia and its comfortable suburbs. There's lagging Berlin, N.H., and the state's boomtowns, such as Hudson or Merrimack."
"The quality-of-life issues in these and other places are jobs, energy, education, health care and retirement security."
The New York Post 's Ian Bishop writes, "The best lines from the lips of President Bush and rival John Kerry — and more importantly their biggest bombs — in the three presidential debates will be the foundation of stump speeches and attack ads down the campaign homestretch." LINK
James Lakely of the Washington Times Notes that in the endgame phase of the election, both candidates are honing their message to a fine point. Bush will continue to portray his opponent as a liberal. Kerry will play for undecideds and independents will shift focus to domestic issues. LINK
The Tampa Tribune's Ellen Gedalius and Jerome Stockfish try to make sense out of the rhetoric and "facts" that both Bush and Kerry cite when talking about jobs, tax cuts, the federal deficit, the minimum wage, and tax breaks for businesses. LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Lindeman looks at the federal deficit and what the candidates plan to do about it. LINK
The Washington Times compares the candidates' tax plans. LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Michael Kilian reports on the place of (. . . or is it the absence of?) the environment in this public debate. LINK
Ken Ward Jr. of the Charleston Gazette examines both candidates claims that they are in favor of clean coal research, an important local issue touched on by both Bush and Kerry on their visits to West Virginia. LINK
The New York Times ' Jim Rutenberg took a Sunday front-page look at the scare factor for ads, which is on the rise. "In the final days before the election, the campaigns and the outside groups supporting them are taking an already unusually intense and confrontational advertising war into grim new territory, with some of the most vivid and evocative images and messages seen in presidential commercials in a generation, political analysts and historians say." LINK
On Saturday, the Los Angeles Times' Gold and Anderson wrote their version. Both candidates continue to employ the politics of fear; the RNC released an ad calling Kerry a "risky" choice for America; Kerry continues to fan draft flames. LINK
The Washington Post on Saturday looked at how Vietnam played a role in shaping the adulthood of all four major party ticketmates. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign released a new ad this morning hitting Kerry (and liberals in Congress) on the war on terrorism, reports ABC News' Karen Travers.
The ad, "Risk," lists examples of what BC04 says is Kerry's "different view" on terrorism in a post-9/11 world and asks "Are they a risk we can afford to take today?"
The ad cites Kerry's vote against the Gulf War, intelligence sending, and weapons systems.
The ad will run on national cable and in local markets in battleground states. This is the campaign's first national ad since last Tuesday when it released two ads on health care.
Script:
Voice over:After September 11th, our world changed.
Either we fight terrorists abroad or face them here.
John Kerry and liberals in Congress have a different view.
They opposed Reagan as he won the Cold War.
Voted against the first Gulf War.
Voted to slash intelligence after the first Trade Center attack.
Repeatedly opposed weapons vital to winning the War on Terror.
John Kerry and his liberal allies … Are they a risk we can afford to take today?
President Bush:I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message.
On Sunday, the Washington Post 's Mike Allen reported Karl Rove is streamlining his efforts to re-elect his boss by shifting focus more toward — but not exclusively on — the base. "Now, two weeks before the election, the Bush-Cheney campaign would be happy to eke out the barest, skin-of-the-teeth majority, and aims to cobble it together by turning out every last evangelical Christian, gun owner, rancher and home schooler — reliable Republicans all. It looks like the opposite of Rove's original dream." LINK
With the help of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, the Los Angeles Times' Matea Gold and Nick Anderson report that although both President Bush and Vice President Cheney were off the trail yesterday, their presence was being felt in Florida. LINK
"Bush, who campaigned in Florida on Saturday, had no public events Sunday. But his campaign began running two ads. One paints the Democrat as a longtime liberal who can't be trusted to face down terrorists, and the other criticizes Kerry's healthcare plan as a threat to the doctor-patient relationship."
"The 30-second advertisements, cosponsored by the Republican National Committee, debuted in Florida as both campaigns continued their quests for the state's pivotal 27 electoral votes. The ads were spotted by TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for The Times , and were not announced by the Bush campaign."
"Among the sharpest attacks Bush has leveled against Kerry on TV, the spots summarized Bush's closing argument against Kerry: that on both domestic and foreign affairs, he is a risky liberal."
"President Bush's rebound in a new national poll reflects growth in public confidence in his handling not only of terrorism, an established strength, but also traditionally Democratic issues such as health care and Social Security," reports USA Today 's Jim Drinkard.LINK
"Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida on Sunday publicly ruled out running for president in 2008, quashing for now, talk of a third Bush in the White House," reports the New York Times ' Abby Goodnough. He told it all to ABC News' George Stephanopoulos. LINK
Elisabeth Bumiller on the battle over the bulge. LINK
"By choice of the Bush campaign, Vice President Cheney's face and biography do not appear in the 2004 Oregon Voters' Pamphlet, which was mailed this week to 1.6 million households in a swing state where the presidential race remains too close to call," reports Blaine Harden. LINK
Correction: In our Sunday Note, we implied that the Republican National Committee was being secretive about the details of a new ad. The ad was created by an independent expenditure arm of the RNC and the RNC's communication shop is by legal firewalls limited in terms of how information it can know about what that limb is doing. We should not have written that the RNC is deliberately trying to prevent reporters from learning about this ad.
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:
The New York Times ' David Halbfinger has this detail about early voting and Florida:
"Kerry aides said local Democratic elected officials would bus their constituents to the polls beginning on Monday as if every day were Election Day. 'We've got 14 Election Days,' said Tom Shea, the campaign's Florida director." LINK
"Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards will return to the state next weekend, aides said, and at least one more visit to Florida is likely."
Adam Smith and Joni James of the St. Petersburg Times wrap the KE04 swing across Florida yesterday and Kerry and Edwards' stops today as they continue their 12-state tour urging people to vote early, Noting that members of the Congressional Black Caucus and Senator Bob Graham accompanied Kerry to South Florida. LINK
"Meanwhile, Kerry's Florida swing was preceded by a Republican mailing which touts President Bush's environmental record and wrongly implies that Kerry might support oil drilling off Florida's coast."
Boffo local clips for Kerry and Edwards in Florida: LINKand LINKandLINK
"You've got to start voting tomorrow," Kerry told a crowd at Pembroke Pines Florida on Sunday. LINK
Matea Gold of the Los Angeles Times takes a look at John Kerry's efforts to connect with black voters and get them to the polls. LINK
KE04 made a point of reaching out to African-American voters, the Miami Herald 's Robert Steinback reports. LINK
Edwards made a pitch for black voters to go to the polls early. "The truth is, the more people that vote, the more likely John Kerry will be president, and the Republicans know that," he said Sunday. LINK
The Orlando Sentinel's John Kennedy offers up a smart overview of the duo's campaign stop and what's at stake in the Sunshine State. LINK
USA Today 's Jill Lawrence wraps Senator Kerry's "new offensive," based on a remark made by President Bush in the New York Times Magazine. LINK
The Boston Globe 's Patrick Healy also looks at Senator Kerry's "new offensive to stir voter anxiety about a second Bush term." LINK
The Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei and Chris Jenkins write up Senator Kerry's "January surprise" accusation from this weekend, in which he accused President Bush of having a secret plan to privatize Social Security that he would spring in his second term, based on Bush's comments in Ron Suskind's New York Times Magazine article (LINK).
Kerry communications director Stephanie Cutter was asked about the "January surprise" on "Fox and Friends" this morning, and started her answer by saying: "We only know what we read in the papers."
When asked about the RNC's denial that Bush used the word "privatize" as Ron Suskind claims based on second-hand accounts in the New York Times Magazine, Cutter, echoing an argument Bob Shrum made on a conference call with reporters yesterday, said that although the Bush campaign is disputing whether Bush used the word "privatize," the Bush campaign, according to Cutter, is "not denying that they are looking at privatizing Social Security."
Cutter leveled very explicit allegations about Bush and the draft, saying that Bush's foreign policy has prevented international involvement in Iraq and that as a result "there is no way" for Bush to carry out his foreign policy "other than to reinstate the draft."
And if you think this flu thing is going away, you weren't watching the morning shows today.
On "Fox and Friends," Nicolle Devenish called Kerry's attacks over the flu vaccine shortage a "very sad, grasping message, ripped from the headlines."
Asked where Kerry would get the flu vaccine, Cutter pointed to Canada and, more generally, said Kerry would have acted faster when he received warnings about a coming shortage.
ABC dedicated the majority of its first 10 minutes to flu vaccine shortage, including a Dan Harris package about Kerry, an interview with the Director of the CDC, and a live shot of a long line outside a vaccine center in New Jersey.
Asked about Kerry's accusation that the vaccine shortage could have been prevented, CDC Director Julie Louise Gerberding did not respond directly, saying "The companies are not making the money they need to make … What we need to do is expand our stockpiles … and that's exactly what we've been doing the last two years." Gerberding declined to call the shortage a crisis, calling it instead a "very serious concern." ABC showed live picture of a long line of people waiting for flu shots in New Jersey during the interview. The CDC Director was also on CBS and CNN.
Harris on Kerry: "Look for him to keep hammering away" on flu vaccine shortage.
On Sunday, the Chicago Tribune's Zuckman and Pearson looked at the fight over the flu vaccine. LINK
"Using a retooled stump speech and several short stops filled with plenty of rural symbolism, John Kerry took his campaign into Ohio Bush Country on Saturday to rally Democrats and try to win over a sliver of the state's socially conservative but economically fickle swing voters," writes Mark Naymik of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. LINK
"In a visit to an East Side church, Kerry forcefully injected the emotional issue of the popular old-age insurance system into the campaign, asserting that he would never cut benefits or raise the retirement age for those qualifying for Social Security," writes Jack Torry of the Columbus Dispatch. LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Reston takes a stab at the religion angle, looking at how Senator Kerry has been "threading more references to his religion into campaign appearances." LINK
Jim VandeHei also looks at John Kerry's approach to matters of faith, Noting that the Senator is increasingly shedding his patrician New England reticence about discussing religion and talking openly about spirituality as he courts voters in churches.LINK
"So what prompted the change? A top aide said Kerry has simply grown more comfortable publicly 'opening up' about God and faith, as the campaign has progressed and opportunities have arisen (such as the third and final debate, when several questions about faith were posed). It is part of a broader effort by an introverted Kerry to share more about his life and experiences, the aide said. One of Kerry's new lines is how there are three great teachers in life: parents, schoolteachers and God."
"But some friends say that Kerry also has gained a deeper appreciation of how voters in many of the battleground states — from Hispanic Catholics in New Mexico to evangelical Christians in rural Ohio — seek candidates of faith, or at least desire reassurance that their president shares most of their values."
On Sunday, David Halbfinger of the New York Times recounted Kerry's stop at a Roman Catholic church Saturday "where a very supportive priest chided bishops who have assailed him over abortion rights," at a special mass in Chillicothe, OH, and a supporter outside "held a seldom-seen sign saying "Christians for Kerry." While Bush seems to have cornered the market on the religious vote, Senator Kerry evoked the words of a President with the same initials and religious ID, John F. Kennedy: "on Earth, God's work must truly be our own." LINK
Jim Tankersley of the Rocky Mountain News reports, "President Bush has pulled ahead of Senator John Kerry in Colorado on the strength of increased popularity among women, according to a Rocky Mountain News/News 4 poll." It shows Bush leading by 5 points, "up from a 1-point edge last month." Tankersley Notes, "His advantage includes a plurality of women, a change from previous polls that showed female voters preferred Kerry." LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman finds Kerry to be Dean-esque in telling crowds that it's up to them and in awe of the people on the trail. LINK
On Saturday, the Boston Globe 's Healy and Kornblut wrote that following Kerry's ">LINK
Navy records posted to his Web site have stirred controversy in the cyber world, but "authoritative sources" say they show Kerry "did his duty," reports the Washington Times . LINK
Saturday's The New York Times on Teresa Heinz Kerry's tax returns: "She was a big beneficiary of the reductions in tax rates on dividends and capital gains that have been enacted under President Bush. She collected more than $2.2 million in dividends, all of which qualified for the new 15 percent tax rate, saving her $440,000, compared with the 35 percent rate that previously applied to dividends for those with million dollar-plus incomes." LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's ed board isn't satisfied with the portion of the returns that the campaign released, and argues that Teresa Heinz Kerry's returns "are a screaming illustration of the need for reform to make the tax code simpler and fairer. But they also show that Senator Kerry's proposed tax increases are much more about a revenue grab than they are about tax justice."
In this month's Elle magazine, Meryl Gordon profiles Elizabeth Edwards, offering up a look at politics and the trail with a die-hard campaigner whose view of public service is both very personal and strongly felt. It's a glimpse of a wife and mother with a keen political sense and also a sense of humor about herself, the rigors of the campaign trail and "the sexiest politician alive." We'd also love to be more than a fly on the wall for the singalong duets with John Kerry.
The Raleigh News & Observer 's Lynn Bonner looks at how Jack and Emma Claire are handling the rigors of the campaign. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:
This weekend, the AP's Ron Fournier reported the battleground has narrowed to eight states: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. For a smart look at the math/strategy involved, you should read every word. LINK
We still have our eyes on Colorado and Minnesota.
ABC News Vote 2004: Florida:
The Orlando Sentinel's Jim Stratton explains early voting. LINK
The St. Petersburg Times' Jeff Testerman looks at how Hillsborough County Elections Chief has prepared for early voting. LINK
The Palm Beach Post offers a list of early voting sites in Palm Beach County: LINK and along the coast: LINK
Adam Smith of the St. Petersburg Times looks at the complicated task that presidential strategists face in Florida: ensuring that the 1 million voters added to the rolls since 2000 actually make it to the polls. LINK
"By some Democratic estimates, Bush will need to lead in polls by at least 4 percentage points if he is to withstand the expected Democratic turnout juggernaut. That's what happened in 2000, when polls before Election Day gave Bush a slight edge that the Democrats nullified with turnout efforts far smaller than those under way today. . . . Republicans in Florida say that's nonsense, given their unprecedented turnout organization that started 12 months ago and now counts more than 86,000 volunteers and some 120 paid staffers in Florida."
Who will the hurricanes effect most on Nov. 2? LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Glionna gets some softball playing senior citizens' thoughts on the election. LINK
The Washington Post 's Balz and Morin on Saturday looked at a deadlocked Florida and the potential importance of the Latino vote. LINK
"Bush has an overwhelming lead among Florida's Cuban Americans, who dominate the state's Hispanic population. But among the faster-growing non-Cuban Hispanic groups in Florida, the race is a virtual dead heat. The poll of Florida Latinos found Bush the favorite among older and foreign-born Hispanics while U.S.-born Hispanics split their vote. Nearly one in five Florida residents is of Hispanic descent."
The St. Petersburg Times' Aaron Sharockman rounds up the endorsements from Florida papers — seven for Kerry, and an abstention by the Tampa Tribune. LINK
The Miami Herald Notes that the Trib has endorsed every Republican candidate for President since 1952. LINK
The Miami Herald 's Erika Bolstad and Gary Fineout look at the passing of the torch — or rather, the lightning rod — from Katherine Harris to Florida's current Secretary of State and focus of controversy and accusations, Glenda Hood. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Pennsylvania:
The Philadelphia Daily News contains a little tiny bit of outside-the-box analysis on the president's trip to Southern New Jersey today. Reaching New Jersey voters is not the goal, reaching Philadelphia voters is. LINK
The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jim Remsen focuses on the politics of faith in the Keystone State. Explaining how faith has been "injected" into the campaigns, Remsen is quick to point out that "at the grassroots level, for every local congregation or pastor stirred to action, another seems to be staying aloof." LINK
A third of Pennsylvania voters identify themselves as Catholic, Remsen writes, which has mobilized parishes to do such things as make guides explaining where the candidates and other state candidates stand on the issues such as abortion, vouchers, the federal marriage amendment, and the death penalty.
Philadelphia's influential black clergy are super involved in the voter mobilization effort. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Schaffer and Remsen "[The Black Clergy of Philadelphia and Vicinity], whose churches' combined membership is estimated at 250,000, is organizing rallies next weekend and the weekend after. It also has promised 30 vans to drive elderly congregants to the polls and has sent hundreds of volunteers directly to the Kerry campaign, said the Rev. Steven Avinger, who leads the organization's political commission." LINK
For all you GOTV folks in Philly, the University of Pennsylvania has come out with a study on the City of Brotherly Love's voting patterns. "The starkest finding of the study was a difference between when black and white voters went to the polls: By 11 a.m., only 21 percent of voters in predominantly African American precincts had voted, compared with 34 percent of white voters. Fifty-four percent of the vote in the black precincts studied was tallied between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., versus 39 percent of the vote in white-dominated precincts." LINK
"The study also found that older voters were more likely than younger ones to visit the polls before 8 a.m. or after 7 p.m."
The Pittsburgh-based Secret Service are just as excited as anyone for it to be Nov. 3. They've been on a vacation ban since the start of the presidential campaigns and "local agents have provided security for 106 VIP details since last October, well-surpassing the 80 VIP visits during the 2000 campaign." LINK
Residents of the swingy Allegheny County in Pennsylvania can start standing in line for flu shots today. LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gives readers the details of Senator Kerry's visit to town Wednesday. LINK
The Wilkes-Barre Times Leader reports that "Luzerne County minority Commissioner Stephen A. Urban is calling for temporary and permanent layoffs to help shrink the county's $15 million year-end deficit before time runs out." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Ohio:
". . . in Cincinnati, like much of the country, it does not appear that voters will be selecting their president based on health care," reports the Cincinnati Enquirer's Bonfield. LINK
2,500 people showed up for a "Women for Kerry" rally in Cincinnati yesterday. LINK
"The 28 soldiers of the Army National Guard's 237 th Personnel Service Battalion, deployed for Operation Iraqi Freedom yesterday," reports the Columbus Dispatch with much emotion. LINK
The Columbus Dispatch spoke to one solider who may vote for the guy who he thinks will bring him home the fastest. LINK
"He said that some think a change in the White House may get them back sooner."
ABC News Vote 2004: Iowa:
Thomas Beaumont of the Des Moines Register highlights Iowa's important in the elections as one of the last 10 true swing states that will determine the winner of this year's election. LINK
Yesterday, we told you about the Chicago Tribune's car tour of Iowa that yielded the "how they did it" texture of how strong Bush-Cheney is on rural radio (paid and free media) compared to the Kerry effort. LINK
The story said that the Trib's three-person team had been to "nearly one third" of the Hawkeye State's fabled 99 counties.
No coincidence, as far as we are concerned, that the entire team are alums of the Des Moines Register .
Here are the counties that the hard-driving Jeff Zeleny, Kirsten Scharnberg, and John McCormick went to: Dubuque, Delaware, Buchanan, Black Hawk, Grundy, Hardin, Hamilton, Webster, Humboldt, Pocahontas, Palo Alto, Clay, Dickinson, Polk Dallas, Guthrie, Audubon, Shelby, Flintstone, Pottawattamie, Mills, Montgomery, Cass, Adams, Union, Madison, Warren, Jasper, Poweshiek, Iowa, Johnson, Linn, and Cedar.
Actually, we added one fake county. E-mail us if you can spot it. politicalunit@abcnews.com
On Sunday, the New York Times ' Adam Nagourney scoured the coffee shops of Iowa and learns that the debates did more to rededicate alliances than to change minds, "in keeping with this election year, the encounters seemed to harden existing attitudes." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Minnesota:
The Star Tribune report good news for Minnesota Democrats: "Fueled by the passions of the presidential race, voter-registration campaigns have added tens of thousands of Minnesotans to the election rolls from predominantly Democratic cities, nearly twice the new registrations gathered in recent months from heavily Republican areas of the state." LINK
The Star Tribune looks at GOTV groups of all parties and stripes in Minnesota — groups like ACORN and Sproul and Associates are causing all sorts of controversy about alliances and funding and more. LINK
The Star Tribune profiles two "young, middle class" Minnesota families who will be voting their pocketbooks on Nov. 2 — one for Kerry and one for Bush — a sign of the "two Minnesotas" (that is a section head of the story, not stealing a familiar Democratic Vice Presidential candidate's line). LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the West:
Early voting begins in Colorado today and continues through Oct. 29. LINK
Secretary of State Donetta Davidson called in the reinforcements Sunday to help fight voter fraud and put down fears of funny business at the polls, reports the Denver Post. "District attorneys, county clerks and representatives from both the U.S. attorney's and state attorney general's offices told Davidson they would gladly take up the fight." LINK
The Boston Globe 's Milligan looks at how the once Republican-safe Colorado has become a contested state this year. LINK
Jeff Kass of the Boston Globe offers up a primer on Colorado's Amendment 36 and Notes "While most of the prominent Amendment 36 supporters are Democrats, both Democrats and Republicans in the state have lined up against the Nov. 2 ballot question." LINK
The Washington Post 's T.R. Reid looks at why Nevada has become crucial to both campaigns' electoral strategies — and also maps out the other Western battlegrounds while he's at it. LINK
Jaclyn O'Malley of the Reno Gazette-Journal reports on Elizabeth Edwards' visit to Carson City, NV yesterday, where she touched on social security and Bush's environmental record. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting:
Three key graphs from James Dao's New York Times front-pager on casting and counting, which is a must-read:
"The legal combat in Ohio over the fundamental issue of who can vote is recurring in virtually every battleground state this year, in what experts say is fast becoming, in its final weeks, the most litigious, lawyer-fraught election in history." LINK
"The two sides have been mobilizing for months, but in recent days the battle has been joined on a number of fronts. In New Mexico, Republicans unsuccessfully sued the Democratic secretary of state to require that most new voters show identification at the polls. In Florida, Democrats have filed 10 election lawsuits against Republican officials. In Pennsylvania, plans by the Democratic governor to have state workers help monitor the election have stirred Republican suspicions. In Colorado, the Republican secretary of state has accused the Democratic attorney general of not aggressively investigating registration fraud."
"The clashes have followed a familiar script. Republicans, long suspicious of urban political machines and worried about record levels of new registrations in many swing states, say Democrats have abetted fraud. Democrats, who cite a bitter history of efforts to deny minority and low-income voters the ballot, contend that Republicans are trying to suppress the vote. But thanks to the election of 2000, the attacks this year have been fiercer and the legal mobilization larger than ever, experts say."
The New York Times ' editorial board weighs in on Voters Outreach of America. LINK
The New York Daily News looks at a doctor, a prosecutor, a journalist and a consultant to find they all have something important in common — they each were each counted twice in the 2000 presidential election. "All four are registered to vote in both the city and Florida, a few of the 46,000 people whom the Daily News recently found signed up to vote in both states, according to a database match." LINK
Election workers prepare for the worst in Columbus, OH. LINK
The Colorado election officials held an emergency meeting Sunday to hash out procedure for dealing accused wrongdoing in the states massive voter registration drives. When a voters name does not show up on the rolls to vote on Nov. 2 but who say they did register will be given a provisional ballot to be marked "VRD," for "Voter Registration Drive." Once the ballot is completed, it would be checked against the state's voter databases. LINK
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Times looked at a base that will be obsessed with process Nov. 2. "More than 25,000 poll watchers, including lawyers and computer experts, are expected outside and inside precinct stations to report problems and in some cases to intervene if they believe poll workers are violating voter rights or making technical mistakes." LINK
"The largest effort is being mounted by a coalition of 60 liberal and independent organizations that includes churches, civic groups, unions and minority rights groups; it has created a massive computerized tracking system to follow possible election day breakdowns."
"But poll watchers will also include elite computer scientists, county election officials and even European observers who believe the U.S. system is flawed."