The Note: A Tie Is Like Kissing Your Sister
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
Six Days Until Election Day
NEWS SUMMARY
Who is ahead? Who is winning the most recent and the current news cycles? Can/do battleground state polls deviate meaningfully from the national number?
And: which is more in play, Hawaii or Arkansas? How about New Jersey or West Virginia?
And: how emotional will the president's closing ad be? Who is running the single most outrageous ad on radio today?
Finally, why isn't the president talking more about the mission to Mars? Why isn't Kerry closing strong on those bunker busting bombs?
All of these are interesting and important questions, but none is forward-looking enough for our tastes.
With either candidate in a position to win, that means, ipso facto, that either candidate can lose.
And we can already hear the explanations from each side pre-ringing in our collective ears.
So without further ado (or waiting for the outcome) here is what you can expect:
(To be fundamentally clear — this is what people will say; we aren't necessarily endorsing them as true.)
FROM THE BUSH-CHENEY SIDE:
We knew back in March we were going to lose.
Those negative Democratic nomination season ads attacking the president.
The poisonous news environment that just went on and on: Abu Ghraib, panned SOTU, John Snow's mouth, unemployment and poverty figures, etc.
Wrong track.
We really did make a mistake in Iraq.
We could never stop Soros, Bing, etal. from out-spending us under the table.
Too much job loss in the wrong states.
The other side got their act together just in time.
The debates.
The failure to enforce the Beck decision.
The relentless negativity of the liberal 527s and the dominant media about President Bush.
Anti-Bush hatred whipped up by congressional Democrats.
The drip-drip-drip of deaths in Iraq.
We were counting on the Democratic nominee being shackled by the spending cap and broke (or, better, being Howard Dean!!!!) all spring and summer.
We were counting on a protracted battle for the Democratic nomination.
Springsteen.
FROM THE KERRY-EDWARDS SIDE:
Let's face it — the better "athlete" always wins, and Bush is a better political athlete than Kerry.
The Bush campaign had a better political athletic program than the Kerry campaign.
We always said we could handle Kerry's PAST flip flops, and then he goes and says, "I actually voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it," etc.
Windsurfing.
We never solidified our base. We should have had blacks, women, Hispanics, and labor wrapped up by June.
First Lady Laura Bush.
Too many power centers.
Howard Dean screwed us up.
The party liberals screwed us up.
John Podesta and daily kos notwithstanding, we are still no match for the Fox/Rush/Drudge echo chamber.
The power of incumbency.
Failure to settle on a positive frame.
Failure to settle on a negative frame.
Never gave anyone a good reason to vote FOR Kerry.
Not negative enough.
Too negative.
We outsourced our field program to ACT; we should have left it with the unions.
The Clinton people got here too late.
Kerry wouldn't let us put an adult on the plane until it was too late.
We never did that interview with The Factor.
Swift Boats.
The treachery of Bob Shrum.
Arnold.
As for today, President Bush heads to Pennsylvania, Ohio, and the solidly Democratic Detroit, MI today to deliver what his communications director Dan Bartlett tells ABC News' Kate Snow will be a two-page "formal direct appeal to Democrats."
The president begins with two airport rallies: 11:10 am ET in Lancaster, PA, which split evenly between himself and Gore in 2000, and 1:55 pm ET in Vienna, OH, one of the state's most Democratic counties (and one where, thanks to a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court yesterday afternoon, Ralph Nader will not appear on the ballot: LINK) (Ralph Nader is in Ames, IA today for a 2:15 speech.) The president holds a 4:00 pm ET rally in Findlay, OH, in one of the state's most Republican counties, and ends the day with a huge 6:30 pm ET rally in Detroit's Silverdome, where he'll be joined and endorsed by some African American ministers.
Senator John Kerry is in Sioux City, IA this morning, where he will stick to the economy in a 10:15 am ET speech. President Bush has "failed middle-class families with almost every choice he's made," Kerry will say, according to excerpts released overnight by his campaign. "He's given more to those with the most at the expense of middle-class working families who are struggling to get ahead. Now he's asking you to give him four more years so that he can keep up the bad work."
Kerry flies to Rochester, MN for a 2:00 pm ET rally before flying back to Iowa (this time on the opposite end of the state) for a 7:15 pm ET rally in Cedar Rapids. He is expected to raise a New York Times story today in which the commander of the 101st Airborne's second brigade says his troops had no orders to search the Al Qaqaa military base for the 380 tons that of explosives that are missing, and didn't. LINK)
Kerry flies to Toledo tonight to preposition for a Thursday morning rally.
The Vice President and his wife begin their day in Florida with a 9:00 am ET rally in Kissimmee. They then head to Washington, PA, for a 1:25 pm ET rally, and Waukesha, WI, for a 5:15 coffee.
Senator Edwards is in Florida all day holding three early vote town hall meetings: at 11:00 am, 2:50 pm, and 6:30 pm ET in Clearwater, Kendall, and Cocoa, FL, respectively. He flies to Duluth, MN to preposition for Thursday events tonight.
Teresa Heinz Kerry is in Pennsylvania today.
Happy big 5-0 birthday to Michael D. McCurry, the Pride of the Palmetto State, Princeton, and young voters everywhere. LINK
And see the very end of The Note for our special look inside the Democrats' war room on Election Day. Tomorrow: inside the GOP war room.
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: where things stand:
Washington Post 's Dan Balz reports that not only are Democrats shifting their resources to defend Hawaii, but they are also eyeing West Virginia and Arkansas. Balz writes "a DNC official said last night that the party probably will be on the air with a television ad by today in West Virginia, and MoveOn has bought TV time," of Arkansas, reports that "MoveOn has made a modest TV buy and the Media Fund purchased radio ads." LINK
More in the Washington Post , from VandeHei's and Allen's piece:
"Many Kerry aides predict victory, but they also express concern about daily tracking polls that show Bush gaining ground in Florida and Ohio. They also fear the great unknown of this campaign: Will the GOP turnout machine, tested in 2000, and tuned up in 2002, exceed expectations next Tuesday?"
"Bush aides insist that the election will again be decided in Florida, and announced that he will spend Saturday night in Orlando. Bush's travel plans show he is still playing defense in Ohio and New Hampshire, both of which he won in 2000, but he is investing the rest of his time in the next few days trying to wrest states from the Democratic column. Rove said two-thirds of Bush's stops in the final two weeks are in states he lost to Al Gore. In Ohio, Bush will be accompanied by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)."
Ron Brownstein gets to the heart of the Bush campaign's electoral strategy. " … one of the key remaining questions in this on-the-edge campaign is whether Bush can match his strength in rural areas elsewhere in the rolling countryside of the three neighboring states at the top of his target list: Iowa, Minnesota and especially Wisconsin." LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's John Harwood has a fine look at how both campaigns' have attempted to convince the other side's base not to vote, although most of the examples are pretty thin gruel. LINK
Mr. Harwood also turns in a Capital Journal laying out the social and cultural divide in the country — as divided as 2000, but not in the same way. The gender gap, for example, has narrowed, he Notes, and muses that the battle to woo women without college degrees could be the decider. LINK
The Washington Post 's bookish Dana Milbank ran a computer model to discover that 33 distinct combinations of electoral state victories would lead to a 269-269 tie. LINK
The Washington Post 's super-productive Howard Kurtz writes on today's front page that independent groups advertising on Bush and Kerry's behalf "are saying things that the candidates dare not say, connecting conspiratorial dots, using more disturbing images and indulging in no-holds-barred ridicule. In a venue dominated by Democrats for much of the year, Republicans are almost catching up, yielding a cacophony of themes tailored to different hot-button issues, different constituencies, different states and different kinds of fear." LINK
Walter Shapiro proclaims, "Win or lose, Bush is the candidate whose record and governing style has dictated the shape of this campaign." LINK
Dick Morris, in the New York Post , talks about the wolves, Noting that the "race has settled into the pattern it was destined to take all along: President Bush pushing the issue of terrorism while John Kerry focuses on domestic policies." LINK
Anne Kornblut of the Boston Globe addresses the question, "Will Jewish voters continue to turn out in droves for Democrats as they have traditionally, or shift toward Bush as his advisers insist they expect?" LINK
Peter Beinart says … yes they will. LINK
The Washington Post 's Robert Kaiser on Cuba City, WI, the home of voters persuaded by a single candidate's visit and a presidential destination yesterday. LINK
In the Midwest, Johnny Apple's sweet tooth is nonpartisan, and provides a fantastic guide for those of you covering candidates from outside the bubble in the closing days. LINK
Hint: drop off for pie!!!!!
Editor and Publisher's Greg Mitchell analysis of the endorsements to date:LINK
Mitchell sends along his latest tally from yesterday, with 36 papers now switching to Kerry: LINK
Bill Clinton thinks Kerry will win — barely. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry: news of day:
You know we are getting close to the end of the campaign when the Los Angeles Times' incomparable Ed Chen starts using "closing the sale." Here is Mr. Chen on the "warm and fuzzy factor." LINK
"Having waged an often negative, bare-knuckles campaign against Senator John F. Kerry, President Bush has begun cranking up a charm offensive in hopes of closing the sale with voters."
"With six days until the election, the self-styled 'war president' is striving to cultivate a softer, average-guy image — even as he continues bashing Kerry as a flip-flopper and a Massachusetts liberal who doesn't understand the war against terrorism, and as his campaign continues airing hard-edged television ads."
USA Today 's Dan Vergano maps out nicely the differences in their stem cell stances. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: legal wars:
The Washington Post 's Becker and Edsall write that the ongoing legal fights have "put election rules in flux less than a week before Election Day." LINK
In a story headlined "Bush v. Kerry, the Chadless Sequel," the New York Times ' Adam Liptak writes that because of HAVA's provisional ballot rules "there is a real possibility that the outcome of the presidential election will not be known on the morning of Nov. 3 and that it will again turn on court decisions." LINK
Robert Samuelson hopes to avoid election by litigation. LINK
Harold Meyerson argues that "Republicans are spending these last precious days devoting nearly as much energy to suppressing the Democratic vote as they are to mobilizing their own." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: ballotwatch: Florida:
The headline in the South Florida Sun Sentinel says it all — "NOT AGAIN — Missing Ballots in Broward?"
"The Broward County Supervisor of Elections Office on Tuesday pointed a finger at the U.S. Postal Service for nearly 60,000 missing absentee ballots, but it acknowledged it has been overwhelmed by calls from frustrated voters. While the Post al Service denied responsibility for the missing ballots, Broward County commissioners, anxious to avoid another election debacle, offered to send county employees to help with the phones. Dozens of employees could begin assisting the elections office today to answer telephone calls and to process voters at the 14 early-voting sites." LINK
"Just six days away from the general election, the Supervisor of Elections Office has fielded hundreds of complaints from people who have yet to receive absentee ballots. Many more have been unable to get through to election officials to complain or get their questions answered."
"Election officials also said they launched an investigation, which found that most of the missing ballots — 58,000 of them — were sent on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8. The problem, they say, lies with the Post al Service."
"'That is something beyond our control,' Deputy Supervisor of Elections Gisela Salas said. 'We really have no idea what's going on. It's just taken an extraordinary amount of time. I would really encourage people to use early voting.'"
"Postal Service officials say they are not at fault."
Greg Palast, a partisan journalist well-respected in left-wing and European circles, wrote an article for BBC.com based on an internal e-mail he obtained, he said, "from inside" BC04's Florida shop. (We found them on that amusing georgewbush.org website.). LINK
"A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan — possibly in violation of US law — to disrupt voting in the state's African-American voting districts, a BBC Newsnight investigation reveals. Two e-mails, prepared for the executive director of the Bush campaign in Florida and the campaign's national research director in Washington DC, contain a 15-page so-called 'caging list.'"
"It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida. An elections supervisor in Tallahassee, when shown the list, told Newsnight: 'The only possible reason why they would keep such a thing is to challenge voters on election day.'"
Well, in a response letter obtained by ABC News, the GOP's Mindy Tucker Fletcher said that the entire BBC story was more or less entirely incorrect.
"First, caging is a commonly used term in the political process by which someone opens a large amount of mail and logs it into a database. This is routinely done when an organization receives a great deal of mail from a fundraising appeal or returned mail from a mailing to a large number of people. The reporter was not familiar with this term or this process and did not seem to understand it even after it was explained to him."
"Second, the list was a listing of returned mail that came from a mailing that the Republican National Committee sent to new registrants in Duval County in Florida, encouraging newly registered Republicans, Democrats and Independents to vote Republican. Voter registration has been a heavy concentration of both parties this year and both national and state Republican parties have been reaching out to new registrants for the upcoming election."
"The Duval County list was created to collect the returned mail information from the Republican National Committee mailing and was intended and has been used for no purpose other than that. Palast's insinuation that it was created for and will be used for the purposes of an Election Day challenge is erroneous and frankly illustrates his willingness to twist information to suit his and others' political agenda. Reporting of these types of baseless allegations by the news media comes directly from the Democrats election playbook."
A federal district judge in Florida dismissed a lawsuit yesterday field on behalf of new voters whose registration forms were rejected. LINK and LINK
A federal judge in Miami said the state does not have to accept 14,000 voter registrations that the state claimed did not meet their specifications. The Democrats and labor allies wanted those registrations to count. LINK
Jennifer Liberto of the St. Pete Times looks at the lingering difficulties of the new voting technology in Florida. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: ballotwatch:
USA Today 's Jim Drinkard on the scarcity of poll workers and why it's hard to get new recruits. LINK and LINK
The Washington Post 's Jonathan Finer writes that "Reports of college students being discouraged from registering by local officials in a host of college towns are growing more common in the Granite State." LINK
The Washington Post 's Paul Farhi profiles the closely watched Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell. LINK
Are optical scan machines perfect? Not exactly … LINK
In other ballot watch news:
The federal district court judge in Ohio who heard arguments yesterday in the challenge brought by Democrats concerning certain voters whose registrations were rejected said he will make a decision today, ABC's Ellen Davis reports.
"The Ohio Republican Party last week challenged the validity of 17,780 voter registrations in the county. But records show that more than 9,000 of these registrations are for 'inactive' voters who should remain on the rolls according to the federal National Voter Registration Act," reports the Cleveland Plain Dealer. LINK
In Michigan, the 6th circuit court of appeals ruled that voters who cast provisional ballots in the wrong precinct will not see them counted. Michigan joins Ohio and Florida in recent rulings like this.
The Sproul and Associates voter registration controversy had another round in Minnesota's press today. ABC News' Catherine Upin reports that at least two workers for Sproul claim they were told they would be fired if they brought in new voter registrations for people who wanted to vote for John Kerry.
In Colorado ABCs Beth Tribolet reported that a judge dismissed a legal challenge to Amendment 36, which would proportionally split the state's electoral vote.
Pennsylvania absentee voters have apparently been sent envelopes too small for their ballots, the Philadelphia Daily News reports. LINK
Tom Infield of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at how changes in the system such a provisional ballots could hurt Pennsylvanians' voting process on Election Day.LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dennis Roddy reports that Gov. Ed Rendell will be referring allegations of possible voter registration fraud to Attorney General Jerry Pappert's office. LINK
"The political set-to, with a Democratic governor crying foul and a Republican attorney general warning that governor not to overstep his authority, came amid increasing complaints by University of Pittsburgh students that their party registrations and, in some cases, their polling places, were switched after they signed what they believed were petitions on topics ranging from medical marijuana to auto insurance rates."
Bernalillo County, NM absentee ballots can start being processed at 12:01 AM local time on Election Day, allaying some fears that the county's results would not be known until midday Wednesday. LINK
The Los Angeles Times takes a look at how increased voter registration activity has led to an increase in suspected cases of registration fraud. LINK
Please send your tips, comments and questions on any ballot matters to politicalunit@abcnews.com
ABC News Vote 2004: rebutted October surprise re-rebutted?:
We begin this section with the bottom line that the timing of the removal of the explosives remains in doubt, while Senator Kerry plans to keep pushing the issue, and the White House continues to push back AND make it clear that the POTUS will not address this pre-elex.
Kerry's ad, then, goes a little too far, based on the facts as definitive, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions.
Here's what NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw said on last night's Nightly News:
"This is one of those occasions when it's important to carefully examine what we did report and what we did not report. Last night, on this broadcast, we reported that the 101st airborne never found the nearly 380 tons of HMX and RDX explosives. We did not conclude that the explosives were missing or had vanished, nor did we say they missed the explosives. We simply reported that the 101st did not find them. For its part, the Bush campaign immediately pointed to our report as conclusive proof that the weapons had been removed before the Americans arrived, that is possible, but that is not what we reported."
And there' s this reporting from Jim Dwyer and David Sanger in the New York Times :
" … . [T]he unit's commander said in an interview yesterday that his troops had not searched the site and had merely stopped there overnight." LINK
"The commander, Col. Joseph Anderson, of the Second Brigade of the Army's 101st Airborne Division, said he did not learn until this week that the site, Al Qaqaa, was considered sensitive, or that international inspectors had visited it before the war began in 2003 to inspect explosives that they had tagged during a decade of monitoring."
"Colonel Anderson said he did not see any obvious signs of damage when he arrived on April 10, but that his focus was strictly on finding a secure place to collect his troops, who were driving and flying north from Karbala."
""There was no sign of looting here,' Colonel Anderson said. 'Looting was going on in Baghdad, and we were rushing on to Baghdad. We were marshaling in.'"
The Washington Post 's Allen and VandeHei report:
"Several Kerry advisers are convinced their candidate's numbers improve every time there is bad news out of Iraq that dominates coverage of the campaign. In a private meeting with a few aides this week, Kerry let it be known he wanted to return to the strategy of blaming Bush for what he considers the mess in Iraq to make sure undecided voters get the message before voting. He is more comfortable citing newspaper reports at the top of speeches as he did the past two days, because he feels it adds credibility to allegations made during the heat of a campaign, aides say." LINK
Allen and VandeHei also quote Karl Rove's rebuttal: "Kerry, by so rapidly embracing the story, is going to end up being tarnished by it. What would he do as president? Get up every morning and say, I'm going to govern based on what I find in the newspapers?"
The New York Times ' David Halbfinger covers Kerry's criticism of President Bush. LINK
The Boston Globe 's Johnson and Klein write that Senator Kerry hammered away at the president yesterday for the missing explosives, but President Bush let Dick Cheney handle it while he personally emphasized economic issues and taxes while traveling through Wisconsin and Iowa. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney '04:
Below is the script of the new BC04 ad-the campaign's "newest ad" — but it might not be their last one.
It is cut from the president's convention speech in New York and is running on national cable only.
President Bush:
"These four years have brought moments I could not foresee and will not forget. I've learned first hand that ordering Americans into battle is the hardest decision, even when it is right. I have returned the salute of wounded soldiers who say they were just doing their job. I have held the children of the fallen who are told their dad or mom is a hero but would rather just have their mom or dad. I've met with the parents and wives and husbands who have received a folded flag. And in those military families, I have seen the character of a great nation. Because of your service and sacrifice, we are defeating the terrorists where they live and plan and you're making America safer. I will never relent in defending America, whatever it takes."
"I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message."
The New York Post has this headline: "W. GIVES HIS OK TO GAY UNIONS." LINK
The New York Times ' David Sanger highlights President Bush's asking Democrats for their vote on the last bus tour of his campaign and Notes yesterday's Iowa tour "seemed more like the Iowa caucuses — with their retail politics and odes to ethanol and milk subsidies — than like the last days of a national presidential election." Don't miss the section from the pool report. LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's Greg Hitt highlights President Bush's call for tax reform yesterday. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:
The New York Times ' Todd Purdum turns in his latest must-read opus on the life of John Kerry — this time on his tenure in the Senate, and views Kerry's twin votes on war in the Middle East — against the Gulf War in 1991 and for the Iraq war in 2002, as a metaphor for his Senate career, "a study in the conflicts between conviction and calculation, clarity and confusion that have marked much of his public life." LINK
Purdum takes a look at Kerry's reputation in the Senate: "While The National Journal ranked Mr. Kerry the Senate's most liberal member based on his roll-call votes in 2003, his career voting — and speaking — record is more eclectic and less predictable than that rating would imply."
And the fact that he hasn't talked about his record much on the campaign trail — a decision Senator Biden calls into question. "If Mr. Kerry's lack of camaraderie is unusual in a presidential candidate, his difficulties in translating his Senate record into a campaign platform is hardly exceptional. More often than not, sitting senators have a terrible time getting to the White House, in part because it is hard for those who are not legislative leaders to compile a record that is easily summed up on the stump. For half of Mr. Kerry's time in the Senate, Republicans have controlled the chamber."
Kerry reporter Pat Healy of the Boston Globe reports back from the trail with the stuff The Note really cares about. Stephanie Cutter has started eating sugar, campaign officials are getting four hours of sleep, and "Chain-smoking has become so bad that a campaign aide warned Monday about possible penalties from federal aviation officials if reporters and staff kept lighting up on airport tarmacs." LINK
Don't worry, he didn't forget the man himself. "Indeed, the candidate has begun showing his classic mix of punchiness and weariness that was so common in late January."
ABC News Vote 2004: politics Rehnquist:
The Washington Post 's Chuck Lane writes that following the announcement of Chief Justice William Rehnquist's cancer, "the wider public is seeing more news about the prospect of change in the justices' ranks than at any other time in the campaign — and the presidential candidates' positions on judicial nominations have been thrust into the spotlight." LINK
Yeah, voters in Canton can't stop talking about it.
ABC News Vote 2004: politics of national security:
The Wall Street Journal 's David Cloud looks at the possibility that no intelligence reform bill would be sent to the White House for approval — before or after the election. LINK
The 9/11 commission's staff director praised the House version of intelligence reform that endorsed a National Intelligence Director without the budgetary authority recommended by the commission, the New York Times reports. LINK
The New York Times ' Doug Jehl reports that the CIA has temporarily blocked the distribution of a draft internal report identifying "individual officers by name in discussing whether anyone should be held accountable for intelligence failures leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks." LINK
"The Army has abandoned the possibility of shortening 12-month combat tours in Iraq to six or nine months … ," reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK
Al Kamen picks up on the Michigan Herald-Palladium's huge correction of its story about CIA Director George Tenet calling pre-war intelligence — and not the war itself — "wrong." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Florida:
"Blacks are taking the greatest advantage of early voting in Orange County, according to turnout figures, heading to the polls at a higher clip than whites or Hispanics," the Orlando Sentinel's Jason Garcia reports. LINK
"Lingering anger over the flawed 2000 election — in which predominantly black precincts were overwhelmed with long lines and problems — is spurring blacks to turn out early, voters and activists said. More than 5,200, or 6 percent, of the county's black registered voters have cast early ballots, compared with about 5 percent of white voters and about 3 percent of Hispanic voters."
A similar story from Broward County: LINKand LINK
Victor Manuel Ramos of the Orlando Sentinel listens to the New Democrat Network's radio ads targeted at Puerto Rican voters. LINK
A Zogby poll for the Miami Herald shows Kerry leading Bush among Miami-Dade County voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, and nearly 79 percent Cuban Americans saying they support President Bush. Jewish voters in the county support Kerry over Bush 82 percent to 15 percent, Zogby found. LINK
Filing from Coconut Creek, the Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny writes, "With 1.6 million new registered voters since 2000, the nation's most up-to-date system of balloting is showing signs of buckling. Though Election Day does not formally arrive until Tuesday, nine days of early voting have produced their own problems, offering a glimpse into what could lie ahead in a contest that again appears narrowly divided." LINK
Did Don King jump the early voting line? LINK
Coming soon: more on the TV ad in Florida suggesting John Kerry's alleged communist sympathies.
ABC News Vote 2004: Ohio:
The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports Kerry will make his final campaign stop in Cleveland, OH with a little help from Bruce Springsteen. LINK
"'I think it is very significant that John Kerry and John Edwards both began the general election campaign in Ohio, and we plan to end in Ohio,' said Joe Lockhart, a Kerry senior adviser."
The New York Times ' James Dao travels to Columbus to get a sense of the swarms of newly registered voters, and how those wildcards could make the final decision. LINK
Peter Savodnik talks about Ohio as a place where "Voters here are less driven by anything having much to do with their daily routines and much more by issues that play, at most, an indirect role in their lives," in the Hill. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Pennsylvania:
"Of 437,896 new registrants, 247,207 are Democrats and 138,864 are Republicans, according to unofficial totals from all 67 counties," the AP's Peter Jackson reports of Pennsylvania voter registration.
Dick Polman of the Philadelphia Inquirer examines why winning Pennsylvania is key to a Kerry presidency. If he loses it, "he'll probably be wind-surfing next summer without a Secret Service escort." LINK
The Keystone State should be a sea of surrogates for the duration. LINK
Pennsylvania companies are giving employees paid time off to vote, reports the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Cohan writes up Rep. Dick Gephardt's "lectern-pounding campaign speech" to his friends, the United Steelworkers union. LINK
An ad in the Pittsburgh Catholic criticizing single-issue voting has riled some folks up.LINK
Luzerne County election officials voted to seek a court-approved extension for the absentee ballot deadline from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1, reports the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Iowa:
Thomas Beaumont of the Des Moines Register with his coverage of Dubya in Dubuque:LINK
Ashton Kutcher swings by the University of Iowa to stump for Kerry, much to the delight of his screaming fans (see picture). Kristen Schorsch of the Press-Citizen reports. LINK
Vanessa Miller of the Press-Citizen with a continuing election series. Today: Young, exciting Iowans seeking like-minded people for fun, friendship, and voting:LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Colorado:
The Rocky Mountain News reports Colorado Secretary of State Donetta Davidson issued her 83- page guide for election judges Monday and Tuesday, "a week before Election Day, even while working on new emergency rules." LINK
U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's advantage is in question. LINK
Denver Post columnist Jim Spence shares his conversation with the Colorado Secretary of State's new message man. "Florida was a crisis … Colorado is not a crisis." LINK
Senator candidate Ken Salazar is touting his rural roots. LINK
Pete Coors stumped before the party faithful in Colorado Springs Tuesday. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: New Mexico:
The local coverage of Kerry's Tuesday night rally gave a lot of play to Navajo code talker Chester Nez and his now famous blessing of the Boston Red Sox. LINK and LINK
And our favorite headline out of New Mexico today: "Sewer Odor Tamed in Time for Rally," blares the Albuquerque Journal. LINK
"Nearly one-third of registered voters in Santa Fe County have voted early in person or by mail with a week left before Election Day … so far, roughly 10,000 people have voted in person and 14,000 absentee ballots have been received by the clerk's office. An additional 7,140 absentee ballots have been requested, but not yet returned," reports the Albuquerque Journal. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Minnesota:
The Star Tribune reports that Minnesota law will be restricting the access of media to polling places. LINK
The University of Minnesota was graced with the presence of such hotties as John Edwards, Ashton Kutcher, and Chris and Andre Heinz yesterday. The word on the street is that Mr. Kutcher remained remarkably on-message. The Star Tribune has more details. LINK
The Pioneer Press focuses on John Edwards' attack mode. LINK
Ralph Nader gets a standing ovation and some local media coverage from his St. Olaf College event last night.LINK
The Pioneer Press reports, "The Minnesota affiliate of the American Civil Liberties Union is threatening to go to court to force Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer to expand the type of documents voters can use to prove they are properly registered on Election Day." LINK
The Star Tribune reports that three former Sproul & Associates canvassers say they were paid bonuses for registering Bush supporters and paid nothing for registering Kerry supporters (which, according to the SOS office, is not illegal). LINK
Aloha, Hawaii:
To be clear, The Note is not claiming Hawaii is the new 12th battleground state. However, we cannot deny the closeness of the race in this Democratic state worth four EVs.
Sources on the ground, from both parties, claim the close poll numbers reported by the Honolulu Advertiser and the Honolulu Star-Bulletin last week are realistic.
ABC News has learned that the Democratic Party plans to divert "substantial" resources to Hawaii; their independent expenditures arm will be going up on the air there, as well as some of the liberal 527s.
Experts and politicos in Hawaii alike agree the electorate here has changed and is continuing to change. Older ethnic groups who were once loyal Democrats have younger, more independent arm now. Democrats also acknowledged the deterioration of union organization with the closing of many plantations.
The war on terror is a big deal in a state covered with military bases, and/but the Honolulu Star-Bulletin poll showed 44 percent of Hawaii voters say the decision to go to war in Iraq was the wrong decision, while 39 percent say it was right. LINK
However, sources on the ground say they also sense a real fear of changing leaders in a time of war.
Republican Gov. Linda Lingle's 64% approval rating and closeness with President Bush is probably not hurting things for the Republicans either.
Again, The Note is not claiming Hawaii is a battleground, but we are pointing out that only two times in the last 40 years has a Republican running for president won Hawaii, and those were incumbent Richard Nixon and incumbent Ronald Reagan.
And for those of you in politics or media who think the joke about being willing to go work on or cover the race in the Aloha State is either funny or original: think again.
Media:
ABC News President David Westin "warned against the proliferation of opinion commentary in the news media at the Institute of Politics' John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum." LINK
"'The more time we express our opinions, the less time we have to talk about the facts,' Westin said. 'Unfortunately, opinion is driving out facts too often in most of what we see on television today.'"
"In a speech entitled 'Is Network News Obsolete?' Westin argued that network news is far from dead but that the networks must adapt to changes in media."
The Boston Globe 's Mark Jurkowitz explores a study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism that found Senator Kerry has been covered more favorably than President Bush in recent weeks. Note: the same study found Gov. Bush covered more favorably at this time four years ago. LINK
Washington Post Executive Editor Leonard Downie takes to the paper's opinion pages to Note the separation between the news pages and the editorial page, which endorsed Kerry on Sunday. LINK
Nader-Camejo:
The Supreme Court declined to put Ralph Nader on the ballot in Ohio Tuesday. It was the third time he appealed to the Supreme Court for help getting on a ballot this cycle, and the third time he was denied. LINK
Today Nader will campaign in Aims, Iowa — where he completes the last leg of his battleground tour. For the past two weeks, the National Progress Fund has had two organizers tailing Nader in battlegrounds. Today they will drop off — as there is less urgency for passing out flyers, spinning local media and encouraging audience members not to "waste" their votes in non-battleground states.
Thursday Nader is down in Washington, DC — with the possibility of a press conference.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday he will visit several safe states: LA, AL, RI, CT, NY and NJ — and one confirmed battleground, New Hampshire.
UP for Victory organizers are still in battleground states talking about the similarities between Nader and Kerry, and the differences between Kerry and Bush — as they have been doing for weeks.
The Nader campaign's "Van Tour" field operation is motion.
On Nov. 2 Nader will watch the returns from the at the National Press Club in Washington, where he will be available to media for live interviews. His running mate, Peter Camejo will likely be in San Francisco.
Inside the war room:
Yesterday, we provided a guide to members of the Gang of 500 about how to spend Election Day.
Today, we bring you, in advance, how things will go in the Kerry/DNC war room in 6 short days on November 2.
(Tomorrow, we will take you inside BC04/RNC … .)
Election Day Democratic war room chronology:
6:37 am — first Democratic staffer, coffee and paper in hand, wanders into an otherwise empty war room, pauses, surveys the area, and reflects, albeit briefly, on what could have been, what is, and what will be.
7:02 am — with the war room staff finally and fully gathered, a quiet settles over the room, as it becomes clear to all that the time has come for the morning invocation, for the war room chieftan to stand up and say that today — of all days — requires clear, calm, and cool thinking.
7:03 am — that quiet is quickly replaced by awkwardness as it simply isn't clear who exactly the war room chieftan is; a round of "good luck" "good job" and "god save the queen" coughs are coughed and all is right under heaven.
7:07 am — first breathless call comes in from the field with reports of intimidation/fraud/confusing ballots.
7:08 am — for the first — but not last — time, someone says: "Maybe we should have had an election protection lawyer in here, huh?"
10:37 am — President Clinton calls in wanting to be booked on more radio shows and record more robocalls; he will call 6 more times throughout the day with the same request.
10:38 am — President Clinton calls back; for the first — but not the last — time he demands to speak to Whouley to instruct him on the precincts in which the calls should be placed.
10:55 am — football tossing begins in war room.
11:20 am — first injury from football toss occurs; tossers admonished to stop; they stop.
11:25 am — football tossing begins again.
11:45 am — still seeing stars from being struck by football, rare woman operative in war room announces — to no one in particular — that there will be no football tossing in the Hillary war room.
11:55 am — largest single delivery of steamed vegetable dumplings in Meiwah history arrives.
12:02 pm — 112 steamed vegetable dumplings consumed.
1:24 pm — someone innocently asks, "What time zone is Ohio in?"; dealing with this takes up 30 minutes.
2:15 pm — various people in the room race out to relay media-supplied numbers.
2:45 pm — two staffers, names withheld, begin to daydream about their post-election jobs in a Kerry White House; unfortunately, they're dreaming of the same job.
3:06 pm — David Ginsberg opens second pack of cigarettes (although, like David Wade, he doesn't smoke).
3:14 pm — din in boiler room grows so loud that one staffer hears "Ohio" as "Colorado"; Clinton robocalls are momentarily redirected until the mistake is corrected.
4:27 pm — State X calls into war room to talk about voting atrocity Y; entire room gets whipped into a frenzy; "We need to get this out" is repeated ad nauseam; best response from the 4th estate? "Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz."
6:35 pm — West Virginia results get worse. Rose colored glasses from the second presidential debate are donned. Results are re-examined.
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:00 am: The American Enterprise Institute hosts a discussion on "The 2004 Election and the Economy," Washington, DC
—8:30 am: Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney kicks off his bus tour with a press conference at New Hampshire Republican State Committee Headquarters, Concord, NH
—8:30 am: The Commerce Department releases the September report on durable goods
—9:00 am: Vice President Cheney holds a rally at the Stallion 51 Hangar, Kissimmee, FL
—9:00 am: Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. John Kline, and State Auditor Pat Anderson hold press conference in advance of Kerry's Rochester, MN rally, St. Paul, MN
—9:40 am: Gov. Mitt Romney speaks about jobs and the economy at Jewell Instruments, Manchester, NH
—10:00 am: The Latino Coalition and other Latino organizations announce their endorsement for President at the National Press Club, Washington, DC
—10:00 am: The Commerce Department releases the new home sales report for September
—10:15 am: Sen. John Kerry holds an event in North High School, Sioux City, IA
—10:50 am: Gov. Mitt Romney speaks about jobs and the economy at DTC Communications, Nashua, NH
—11:00 am: Sen. John Edwards attends a early vote community gathering at the Recreational and Aquatic Complex, Clearwater, FL
—11:00 am: Rep. Peter Hoekstra, and family members of those killed on Sept. 11 hold a news conference at the Capitol on the intelligence reform bill, Washington, DC
—11:10 am: President Bush speaks at a rally at the Lancaster Airport, Lancaster, PA
—11:00 am: Jenna and Barbara Bush speak at the College of St. Benedict's and St. John's University, St. Joseph, MN
—12:00 pm: Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean campaigns on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards ticket at the IBEW Local, Beaver, PA
—12:00 pm: Rep. Rob Portman campaigns on behalf of the Bush-Cheney ticket, Columbus, OH
—1:00 pm: Teresa Heinz Kerry holds a get out the vote rally at AFSCME Council 13, Harrisburg, PA
—1:25 pm: Vice President Cheney holds a rally at Washington & Jefferson College, Washington, PA
—1:45 pm: Jenna and Barbara Bush speak at Northwestern College, St. Paul, MN
—1:55 pm: President Bush holds a rally at the Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport, Vienna, OH
—2:00 pm: Sen. Kerry holds a fresh Start for America rally, Rochester, MN
—2:15 pm: Ralph Nader speaks at Iowa State University, Ames, IA
—2:50 pm: Sen. Edwards holds an early vote community gathering at Miami Dade College, Kendall, FL
—3:00 pm: Meg Ryan and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. criticize the Bush Administration's environmental policies at the University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL
—3:30 pm: Mrs. Barbara Bush, congressional candidate Stan Thompson, State Senate candidate Brad Zaun, and State Assembly candidate Pat Ward hold a rally at the Embassy Suites Hotel, Des Moines, IA
—4:00 pm: President Bush holds a rally at the Hancock County Fairgrounds, Findlay, OH
—4:00 pm: Teresa Heinz Kerry holds a get out the vote rally at the UAW local 677, Allentown, PA
—4:00 pm: Soap opera starts and New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish rally on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards ticket, Belen, NM
—4:15 pm: The Sierra Club holds a rally criticizing President Bush's environmental policies outside the Pontiac Silverdome, Detroit, MI
—5:15 pm: Vice President Cheney has coffee with local leaders at Gyros West Corner, Waukesha, WI
—6:30 pm: President Bush holds a rally at the Silverdome, Detroit, MI
—6:30 pm: Sen. Edwards holds an early vote community gathering at the Cocoa Riverfront Park, Cocoa, FL
—7:15 pm: Sen. Kerry holds a Fresh Start for America Rally at the U.S. Cellular Center, Cedar Rapids, IA