The Note: "Democracy Is the Score at the Beginning of the Ninth"
WASHINGTON, Oct. 31, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
Two Days Until Election Day
NEWS SUMMARY
The Bush campaign, never lacking in verbal confidence or dexterity, is understandably bullish on two of the three areas that matter most now.
The certain swagger on exhibit (which in Texas is called "walking") is not wholly without justification.
In the trend of the national popular vote (as measured by public opinion surveys) and the tilt of the Electoral College map, all the President's men (and Karen, Nicolle, Mary, Jennifer, etc.) like what they see.
And if you read the Sunday papers VERY carefully (and Googling monkeys are uniform in their love of the clock falling back an hour, because there is a LOT to read today . . . ), you can see that some Democrats are acknowledging the first (and have always secretly understood the second).
The Washington Post: " . . . Bush aides are more optimistic than they were last weekend . . ."
The Associated Press: "As Bush and Kerry crisscrossed Midwest battleground states, a new poll showed the president moving ahead of Kerry in the popular vote, and Democrats said their private surveys hinted at momentum for the Republican incumbent . . ." LINK
The Washington Post: "Public opinion survey data show a close race — statistical ties in key states and nationally, with slight but steady movement to Bush over the past week. That allows both sides to build cases that they are winning. White House senior adviser Karl Rove, who devised Bush's reelection strategy along with campaign manager Ken Mehlman, said Bush has 'a clear lead' in the race for electoral votes." LINK
"'If you look at the upper Midwest — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota — in order for them to win, they need to take every one of them,' Rove said. 'For us to win, all we need is one. And we're going to take more than one. We are going to take at least two, maybe more.'"
Rove's soliloquy leaves out Florida, of course, and might (just might) overstate the case, but it certainly falls closer on the continuum to plausible than possible.
Still, most surveys continue to show the President — even if ahead or MoE tied — below 50 percent (both nationally and in the key states).
And the Electoral College has enough moving pieces that Kerry's alternative paths need not be described as an inside straight.
It is unambiguous: with so many tied and close key states, either man can win.
And, most of all, there is that third key area, where BC04 confidence has always been uncharacteristically muted.
That would be (everybody join in the rhyme) — that would be, GOTV.
Readeth this all-too-typical-when-it-comes-to-this-topic quote from the President's strategy honcho, courtesy of the Los Angeles Times:
"Strategist Matthew Dowd called Bush's get-out-the-vote effort 'much, much, much more extensive than any other' run by the Republicans. But he quickly added: 'The question we have is whether our operation is equal to their operation. And I don't think we will know the answer to that until election day.'"
If there is anyone in the Democratic Party respected by Rove and Co., it is Michael Whouley.
And Steve Rosenthal.
And those two and others are heavily involved in a Democratic ground game that is clearly going to have to outperform the GOP if Kerry is going to win. And it just might do that.
As the Washington Post says this morning:
"What makes this presidential election so difficult to call is the intensity of voter interest, reflected in swollen registration totals and long lines for early voting, combined with the most aggressive voter-mobilization efforts either party and its allies have ever mounted. Democrats in particular believe that their ground game may be decisive in the closest remaining states."
And from the Los Angeles Times:
"For the Bush campaign, the final push has been engineered mostly by a single top-down organization that sets goals in Washington and relies on a vast network of neighborhood volunteers."
"Kerry, in contrast, depends on a conglomeration of party, labor and issue organizations that use multiple messages to target divergent audiences."
Why Democrats have confidence in their ground game:
Michael Whouley; Terry McAullife's database innovations; experience of union organizers and canvassers who've done this for years; anti-Bush passion among younger volunteers; a field program that's triple the size of 2000 (without ACT and the unions); America Coming Together (Rosenthal, Ickes, et. al); outside "non-partisan" groups whose effect will be to get Democratically inclined voters to the polls on Election Day; and experienced operatives running the key states.
Why Republicans have confidence in their ground game:
Four years in the making, with design inputs by Maria Cino, Karl Rove, Blaise Hazelwood, and Ken Mehlman; 250,000 spirited volunteers; more money to spend; more efficient voter targeting (i.e., no outside groups to share voters with); surveys that show more people in battleground states have been contacted in person by BC04 than KE04; confidence from the 2002 experience.
This from the Des Moines Register Poll is potentially really key for Iowa and perhaps beyond:
"Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied."
And/but, as Mr. Dowd says, we'll see on Election Day — which, in the journalism dodge, we express as, "only time will tell."
On the trail today: if Ohio's importance was not yet obvious, Note that all four principals will be there today.
President Bush flies from Orlando to Miami this morning to begin a three-stop tour of the Sunshine State; he holds rallies in Miami, Tampa, and Gainesville at noon ET, 2:20 pm ET, and 4:20 pm ET, respectively. The President then flies to Cincinnati, where he will speak in the Great American Ball Park at 8:00 pm ET. He sleeps in Cincinnati.
Sen. John Kerry flips President Bush's schedule today, waking up in Ohio and sleeping in Florida. Kerry speaks at the Shiloh Baptist Church in Dayton, OH at 9:45 am ET, hops east to New Hampshire for a city hall rally in Manchester at 3:00 pm ET, and then flies south to Tampa for a 10:00 pm ET rally. He overnights at Disney World after a quick midnight flight to Orlando.
Vice President Cheney's extensive schedule: 9:00 am ET airport rally in Toledo, OH; 10:50 am ET rally in Romulus, MI; 3:05 pm ET rally in Fort Dodge, IA; 6:55 pm ET rally in Los Lunas, NM; a six-hour flight to and a 3:50 am ET rally in Honolulu; and a six-and-a-half hour flight back to Colorado Springs, CO.
Sen. John Edwards wakes up in Jacksonville, where he goes to church at 8:00 am ET. He holds a 12:05 pm ET rally in Greensburg, PA; goes canvassing in Columbus at 3:50 pm ET; and flies to Waterloo, IA for a 7:45 pm ET rally. He overnights in Minneapolis.
Today's SurrogateWatch features both Clintons: former President Clinton holds a final rally in New Mexico before heading to Little Rock for a 7:00 pm ET welcome rally. Sen. Hillary Clinton speaks in black churches in New Jersey.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Judd Gregg are in Derry, NH today, while New York Gov. George Pataki heads to New Jersey and Maine on President Bush's behalf.
And Gen. Wes Clark, who appeared on "Good Morning America," is in Nevada and New Mexico, while Leonardo DiCaprio is in Ohio.
ABC News Vote 2004: the Kerry interview:
Yesterday ABC News' Peter Jennings sat down for a final pre-Election Day conversation with Sen. John Kerry in Des Moines, IA, to discuss the last push for voters, the effect of the Osama bin Laden tape, and his plans for the country if he wins on Tuesday. Tune in to "Good Morning America," "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," and "World News Tonight Sunday" for more excerpts, and a more extensive conversation on Monday's "World News Tonight with Peter Jennings."
On the final stretch:
PETER JENNINGS: You're in the final motivation phase — are you going to win any people now, are you just going to get your own people to turn out?
SEN. JOHN KERRY: No, I am going to win people now, and I believe I'm going to win people now, Peter, because there are still people undecided, number one, and number two, I think there are people — even if they say they're committed to somebody — they're, they're still thinking about it.
On the politics of the Osama bin Laden tape:
PETER JENNINGS: Osama bin Laden has imposed himself on the American people again, and your Republican competitors think this works for them if it works for anybody, and some of your supporters think it might cost you the election.
SEN. JOHN KERRY: I think it's unfortunate that anybody puts Osama bin Laden into any political context in the United States' election. I'm outraged that he has appeared; I'm outraged that he inserts himself in any kind of way into the electoral process of America — and I think that Americans are clear in their willingness and ability to make this decision based on what's good for America and where we're heading.
PETER JENNINGS: In fact it was some of your surrogates who made it as much a political issue — right at the beginning . . . and even before the Republicans.
SEN. JOHN KERRY: Well, I don't want them doing that. I think that's wrong! I think that — every American is outraged at the sight of Osama bin Laden and at anything that he says about the American electoral process.
I know I can do a better job of bringing allies to the table to help make America safe. I know I can do a better job of homeland security, where they haven't even — done what's necessary to protect our passengers flying properly, they haven't done what's necessary to protect our ports. They're cutting cops from the streets. They still haven't done what's necessary to protect chemical and nuclear plants.
PETER JENNINGS: But whatever you might wish at the moment, the Osama bin Laden videotape is now a part of the final days of the presidential election campaign — and if you judge by the polls, the president has a country mile on you in terms of handling terrorism.
SEN. JOHN KERRY: Well, I disagree with that. I don't know what polls you're looking at, but the fact is that America knows that I bring 35 years of experience — more experience than George Bush has — in foreign affairs and national security affairs. . . .
I will do a better job of protecting America than George Bush has. George Bush rushed to war without a plan to win the peace; he sent our troops into battle without the armor that they need; without armored Humvees. We got young kids being wounded today because the state of preparedness of this administration to wage a war.
On his health care plan:
PETER JENNINGS: You do know what the Republicans think of your health care plan. You must have some notion of where you're going to have to compromise if bipartisanship means as much to you as you say it means.
SEN. JOHN KERRY: In point of fact, the Republicans have been political with my health care plan during a campaign season — but privately, I have heard many of them say they think it's a very good idea.
I've had many business people across the country — Republicans — who are supportive of my health care plan. There are leading CEOs of major corporations in America that think my health care plan is just what the country needs. And I think you're going to be surprised after the election by the coalition of people who are going to come together to reduce the cost of health care in America.
ABC News Vote 2004: the polls:
The latest ABC News tracking poll shows President Bush and Sen. Kerry remaining in a statistical dead heat heading into the last two days of the presidential campaign with Bush at 49 percent and Kerry at 48 percent among likely voters. Ralph Nader's support dipped below one-half of 1 percent. In terms of the expectations game, 53 percent of likely voters said they expect the President to win re-election, and 33 percent said they expect Kerry to win.
The survey, Notes ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer, points out a couple of interesting things about participation: there's significant participation by voters casting their ballots either early or absentee — 14 percent of likely voters say they've voted overall, and their candidate preferences break down very close to the numbers of the overall; and 92 percent of likely voters age 18 to 29 say they either know their polling place or vote absentee.
Those young voters appear to be breaking in favor of Kerry at this point, and Langer points out that the gender gap is resurging: Bush leads by 10 points among men, Kerry by eight points among women. Kerry continues to lose married women, but has the support of single women by a 2-1 margin. Kerry is leading among single men, but losing to Bush among married men.
Newsweek's poll shows Bush leading 50 to 44 among likely voters (Note the partisan breakdown.). LINK
A new Philadelphia Inquirer poll finds Bush and Kerry in a dead heat. Kerry with 48 percent, Bush with 47 in the Keystone State. LINK
Interesting points from Tom Infield's analysis: LINK
"In a measure of voter passion, the poll suggested a sharp rise in the percentage of Pennsylvanians who are very interested in the election - a jump from 62 percent to 73 percent since late last month."
"Ninety-five percent of both Bush supporters and Kerry supporters said they were certain to stay with their choice."
"8 Votes Apart" is not your usual poll headline, but the wacky methodology used by the Columbus Dispatch (mail survey as opposed to phone poll, for starters) produces that very headline on the front page, no doubt driving Ohio television coverage for a good part of the day. LINK
The poll has Bush and Kerry both a hair shy of 50 percent. Darrel Rowland of the Columbus Dispatch Notes Kerry's advantage among independent voters and new voters as well as President Bush's approval rating at 49 percent.
The Des Moines Register's poll shows Kerry leading Bush 48 to 45 among Iowa's likely voters. LINK
The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that their latest poll shows Bush leading Kerry 50 to 44 among Nevada's likely voters. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: where things stand:
The Washington Post's dream team of Broder, Balz, and Babington call this election "a virtual rerun of the 2000 race," but Note that neither side has a clear, non-convoluted path to electoral victory. The supertrio do the College math, game out the scenarios and write that Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico are the tossups. LINK
More, from a Ron Fournier analysis on the Associated Press wire:
"Polls suggest the nation is evenly divided or leaning toward Bush, but the popular vote does not determine who wins the presidency. The White House goes to whoever earns 270 state electoral votes, a majority of the 538 available." LINK
"According to an Associated Press analysis, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes. Kerry has 16 states plus the District of Columbia secured or leaning his direction for 211 electoral votes."
"It is down to this: Bush needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 105 electoral votes to keep his job. Kerry needs 59 to move into the White House."
Adam Nagourney Notes that "even Democrats" described the bin Laden tape as "somewhat welcome news for President Bush," and writes "that there were signs of concern in Mr. Kerry's circles" over the tape — in start contrast to what he writes was "confidence in Democratic circles, if cautious, [that] was as palpable as the anxiety in Republican circles" going into the weekend. LINK
"The videotape — in which Mr. bin Laden taunts the president and makes vaguely threatening remarks about the nation's security — could well reinforce what has been the defining rationale of Mr. Bush's re-election candidacy since the morning that planes slammed into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon: that the nation is at war, and that this Republican president can best protect it.""The Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry, has his admirers and his critics. But the unprecedented sums of money raised by both parties, the long lines of early voters already crowding polling places in many states and the anticipation of a sharply higher turnout Tuesday are all primarily reflections of the passions Bush has stirred in four turbulent years, especially by invading Iraq," writes Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times in his look at how this deeply divided electorate will head to the polls on Tuesday in an election that is all about Bush. LINK
The Washington Post's John F. (for "fabulous") Harris ponders "The Choice" about as well as we've seen it pondered: "The balloting will amount to a great national Rorschach test, with people looking at two starkly different styles of leader and responding in visceral ways about what intellectual and character traits they value in a wartime president, and what balance of force vs. persuasion they seek as the United States relates to its neighbors on an anxious planet." LINK
Note that Brownstein and Harris checked the same Isaiah Berlin book out of the library!!!Anne Kornblut of the Boston Globe gives us a perfect scene-setter going into the last hours of the race — it's gonna be negative all the way home. LINK
"Terror takes center stage for final act," reads Zuckman and Silva's headline in the Chicago Tribune. LINK
Dean David Broder thinks 2004 featured "one of the best and most exciting White House battles I've ever covered" but Senate and House races where "our system of representative government really failed." LINK
The New York Daily News endorsed George W. Bush to serve another term, an opportunity they passed up in 2000 when they backed Al Gore:
"Returning Bush to office is the wise course, The News believes, despite our sharp disagreement with his domestic policies. Those pale in comparison with the overarching challenge of securing the nation and preserving New York's vital way of life. Of the two candidates, Bush has the clearer vision for accomplishing the goal, as well as the greater experience. He gets our endorsement." LINK
Bush vs. Kerry and the politics of Osama bin Laden:
The New York Times' Eric Schmitt Notes that Kerry's accusing Bush of "outsourcing" the hunt for bin Laden "has elements of truth, but is also somewhat exaggerated, military commanders and Pentagon officials say." LINK
The New York Times' Bumiller and Halbfinger wrap the campaigns' coping with the bin Laden tape and report on a fight between Fox News and the Kerry campaign, which objected to Neil Cavuto's quip that Osama bin Laden might have been wearing a Kerry-Edwards button. LINK
Rick Klein of the Boston Globe ledes "The way the Bush campaign handled the Osama bin Laden videotape late last week was a textbook example of how President Bush's message machine can seize control of the news cycle — and insulate Bush from political damage." LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's James O'Toole makes a key point: "Friday's reappearance of the architect of the Sept 11 attacks followed a series of disparate October surprises that have altered the dynamics of the last minute campaigning. Whether they have altered the sentiments of many voters was less clear." LINK
The New York Times' Kirk Johnson canvasses battleground state voters and writes that partisan supporters and "even the undecided said the tape would not influence their decision." LINK
The Washington Post's Walter Pincus deciphers bin Laden's motives with the tape — to show that al Qaeda is alive and well. LINK
Maureen Dowd doesn't much feel safer. LINK
Curl and Hurt of the Washington Times clearly have no opinion on this: "Sen. John Kerry yesterday criticized President Bush for failing to capture Osama bin Laden, but the president and his top aides refused to politicize the latest threat by the al Qaeda terrorist as they continued to portray the Massachusetts senator as weak on national security." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:
The Washington Post's Allen and Romano wrap a busy Saturday, and include this SDD machismo:
"Tad Devine, a Kerry senior adviser, predicted the senator will get at least 300 electoral votes — 30 more than needed for victory." LINK
The New York Daily News Notes Saturday was "Put Your Daughters to Work Day" on the trail. LINK
Johnny Apple introduces a series of reports from the battlegrounds, suggesting that Kerry holds an edge in Pennsylvania and Ohio, Bush may hold an edge in Florida thanks to his brother, and that Nader is a "real threat" to Kerry in Minnesota. LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny puts the Electoral College in the hot seat. LINK
Bob Novak explains why the likely winner will get Ohio and Florida. LINK
Todd Purdum argues that the passions inspired by a long, costly, and bitter campaign are a good thing for America. LINK
Tom Friedman endorses George H.W. Bush for President — although we think we get what he means. LINK
Jonathan Weisman of the Washington Post Notes that neither candidate has really addressed the "swollen deficit." LINK
Edmund Andrews of the New York Times writes the candidates a letter asking them how they intend to ever pay it down. LINK
The Washington Post's Harris offers a little historical perspective, Noting that this is the first election since 1980 — and the first for Republicans since 1928 — that an incumbent president whose party controls Congress is running for re-election, but that minority party Democrats haven't successfully pinned the parts of the status quo with which voters are dissatisfied on the ruling party. LINK
The New York Times' Glen Justice reports on the under-the-radar, incendiary direct mail campaigns and writes that "traditional tools like mail can still be deadly effective." LINK
Just you wait until tomorrow, Glen.
The New York Times' David Kirkpatrick covers the "thinly veiled" — and not so thinly veiled — messages of support for President Bush by religious leaders, "the strongest manifestation yet of a two-decade-old shift away from the allegiance of different religious groups to each party toward an overriding gap between ardent traditionalists and the more secular." LINK
Kirkpatrick writes that "Although Mr. Bush often emphasizes tolerance and inclusiveness, the grass-roots campaign has in some ways fulfilled the conservative Pat Buchanan's widely panned description at the 1992 Republican convention of a "religious war going on in our country for the soul of America.
The Washington Post's Ann Gerhart takes a look at the long nights and mood swings in the days before the election. LINK
Helen Kennedy waxes nostalgic in the New York Daily News, recapping how we got here. "The race began in late 2002, when former nominee Al Gore poked fun at himself while sitting in a hot tub on 'Saturday Night Live.' That's when everyone knew he would not run again." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: GOTV:
The Los Angeles Times has a fantastic look at the ground organization and mobilization on both sides gearing up for Tuesday. LINK
New Yorkers are stepping out to battleground states. LINK
The Washington Post's Peter Slevin looks at the increased numbers of students participating in the election. LINK
The Washington Post's Mary Otto looks at those helping disabled voters get their chance to vote. LINK
The Washington Post's Mary Beth Sheridan look at the newly political Iranian-American community. LINK
The Washington Post's Mary Fitzgerald chats with the large number of expat volunteers who, "for the most part describing themselves as anti-President Bush, say they are motivated by the belief that this election is the most important in their lifetime." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: ballotwatch:
Reports ABC News' Adi Raval in Ohio:
"One key question to ask is at what time will Republicans and Democrats know how they are doing in each of Ohio's counties on Election Day. A partial answer is at around 11:00 am ET and again at 4:00 pm ET. According to directors of elections for two different counties, both parties can send representatives to each of the state's numerous precincts to check who has voted at these times and only these times. The lists of people who will have voted at these times will appear inside the precincts. According to the directors, it is only at these times, according to Ohio law, that anybody outside of voters, precinct judges (two Republicans and two Democrats with one of these four being the precinct judge), law enforcement officials, and possible challengers, will be allowed inside the actual precinct station. Everybody else has to stay at least 100 feet away."
We are waiting to see whether a judge's late night ruling limiting poll watchers in Ohio will be appealed . . .
From ABC News' Deborah Katz: "In Colorado, Democrats are talking about going to court on Monday to get a court order that ballots that were sent out late (about 13,000 in Denver) should be given extra time to be returned. Ordinarily, absentee ballots need to be in the election official's hands by the end of voting (7:00 pm) on Election Day. Democrats may argue that these 13,000 absentee ballots should be given the same treatment as military absentees which are not due for an additional 10 days and can be returned by fax."
In Florida, Broward County continued to experience problems with its absentee ballots. Several thousand of them probably won't get where they need to get. LINK
Some good news: having thousands of lawyers around has actually resolved problems that could have turned into something worse on Election Day — like polling site signs that pointed voters in the wrong direction. LINK
The Washington Post's Becker and Finkel write that election officials thinks dirty tricks this year "could achieve new highs in numbers and new lows in scope." LINK
E. J. Dionne laments how much baggage is attached to Tuesday's vote. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney '04:
President Bush takes another shot at Kerry fumbling the name of the home of the Green Bay Packers, something his running mate also has done in Wisconsin. LINK
Ed Chen and Maura Reynolds of the Los Angeles Times Note the more personal tone in President Bush's Saturday remarks interwoven with the "barrage of criticism" unleashed on Sen. Kerry. Make sure you don't miss all their great Republican and pro-Bush advertising nuggets at the end. LINK
Senior National Review editor Ramesh Ponnuru sees an aggressive, invigorated Bush if he is reelected. LINK
George Will endorses the President. LINK
The Boston Globe's Rick Klein reports that Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling will be helping the President out after all. He has reportedly recorded pro-Bush robo-calls in New Hampshire, Maine, and Pennsylvania. LINK
The Boston Herald's David Guarino reports same. LINK
The New York Times' Dean Murphy writes about the anxiety "gnawing at the adoring crowds" of President Bush's campaign events, which often function as "moments of calm reassurance." LINK
The Washington Post's Hanna Rosin looks at anxiety among the Bush faithful. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: Vice President Cheney's sleepless tour:
Vice President starts his campaign day with a 9:00 am ET rally in Toledo . . . and finishes it at midnight ET in Jackson, WY, tomorrow night.
The Toledo rally begins what will be a 39-hour, 9,494-mile campaign swing for the Vice President and Mrs. Cheney that will take them to eight states and across seven time zones (touching down in four), ABC News' Karen Travers reports.
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:
Glen Johnson covers Sen. Edwards' visit to Maine's 2nd congressional district. LINK
"In a region affected by mill closings and other economic ailments, the North Carolina senator sought to drive home his ticket's message of hope for the middle class by casting himself as their champion, and by appearing on stage with his father and mother, the former mill worker and Postal Service employee who are regulars in his stump speech."
The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga plays fantasy Cabinet for a potential Kerry Administration. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: meaningless harbingers:
'Skins, Weekly Reader kids, and masks: LINK
The Note officially hates all this stuff.
ABC News Vote 2004: Florida:
If you don't know what role Tinker Field plays in last minute campaigning in Florida, you don't know the state... LINK
A Mason-Dixon poll shows Bush with a slight edge in Florida. LINK
But if Kerry can produce a massive turnout, he can erase those margins, the St. Pete Times writes. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Ohio:
"Political parties and other groups each are allowed only one person per polling location to challenge voters on Election Day, instead of having multiple challengers in polling places that hold voting for more than one precinct, a Cuyahoga County judge ruled yesterday," writes Mark Niquette of the Columbus Dispatch. He goes on to report that Secretary of State Blackwell has no intention of appealing. LINK
"Hundreds of voters could easily cast ballots Tuesday in both Ohio and Florida because they are eligible to vote in both states and have received absentee ballots from election officials in Ohio, The Plain Dealer has found." The paper goes on to report its reporters found 27,000 active voters registered in both Ohio and Florida. LINK
Thomas Oliphant opines from Toledo, OH and observes "The result could not be more in doubt, but there is no doubt that the momentum through the final week belonged to John Kerry and John Edwards — at least until Osama bin Laden ominously surfaced on videotape late Friday." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Pennsylvania:
The Philadelphia Inquirer's Blanchard and Emeno attempt to characterize the 535,000 new voters that have hit the Pennsylvania voter registration books, acknowledging that there is really no way to know. LINK
Rudy Giuliani's visit to Allegheny County gets this headline the BC04 folks couldn't have written better themselves: "Giuliani sees Bush as answer to terrorism." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Wisconsin:
Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel looks at Wisconsin's crucial role in the current electoral math. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Iowa:
The Des Moines Register's Tom Beaumont reports that Kerry "delivered a broad-themed appeal in Des Moines on Saturday, seasoned with urgency…" LINK
Meanwhile, the Register's Erin Jordan reports that Vice President Cheney "used the opening day of Iowa's pheasant season to take a political shot" at Kerry. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Minnesota:
A St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio poll find Bush and Kerry in a dead heat in Minnesota, with President Bush ahead 48-47. LINK
Meanwhile, new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll finds John Kerry leading President Bush 49-41 percent of likely voters. LINK
Bush was met with cheers in Minneapolis yesterday, the Star Tribune's Smith reports. "Bush's Minnesota visit was his eighth this year, the most by a Republican presidential candidate in history." LINK
The Star Tribune's Schmickle and Gordon report on this weekend's GOTV efforts here. "The Bush-Cheney campaign says it has dispatched 55,000 volunteers to comb every Minnesota precinct — more than 4,000 locations — for voters. More than 20,000 Democrats are working feverishly to contact 30,000 voters every hour by phone and by door-knocking." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Colorado:
Voting in Colorado is a matter of trust. LINK
Big differences, big money, and big insults. LINK
Partisan forces in Colorado are shifting to a one word message: turnout. LINK
Dear Rocky Mountain News, you have done such fine, comprehensive political reporting this cycle — so then why why why wouldn't you update your Web site in time for it to be Noted here? LINK
Nader-Camejo:
Susan Rosenblatt of the Los Angeles Times (another 2004 star) writes, "Nader's gospel remains unchanged as election day nears: The candidate opposes the two-party system and the influence of corporations on government, and he wants to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq." LINK
The Chicago Tribune reminds readers 12 percent of Arab Americans supported Ralph Nader in a September Zogby poll. LINK
Some Democrat strategists say the Nader factor is marginal. LINK
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:00 am: Sen. John Edwards attends church, Jacksonville, FL
—8:30 am: Jenna, Barbara and George P. Bush and Doro Bush Koch meets with student supporters at Duquesne University, Pittsburgh, PA
—9:00 am: Vice President Cheney attends a Victory 2004 Rally at Toledo Express Airport, Toledo, OH
—9:30 am: Sen. Hillary Clinton speaks at the Metropolitan Baptist Church, Newark, NJ
—9:35 am: Jenna, Barbara and George P. Bush and Doro Bush Koch speak to campaign volunteers at the Victory 2004 volunteer center, Cranberry Township, PA
—9:45 am: Sen. John Kerry speaks at the Shiloh Baptist Church, Dayton, OH
—10:50 am: Vice President Cheney attends Victory 2004 rally, Romulus, MI
—10:50 am: Jenna, Barbara and George P. Bush and Doro Bush Koch speak to volunteers at the Bethel Park Victory Center, Bethel Park, PA
—12:00 pm: President Bush holds a Victory 2004 rally at the Coconut Grove Expo Center, Miami, FL
—12:00 pm: Former President Bill Clinton attends a GOTV rally, Albuquerque, NM
—12:00 pm: New York Gov. George Pataki holds a rally at the Bergen County Republican Headquarters, Hackensack, NJ
—12:05 pm: Sen. Edwards holds a Fresh Start for America rally at his campaign's headquarters, Greensburg, PA
—12:45 pm: Sen. Clinton speaks at the St. Mathews AME Church, Orange, NJ
—1:00 pm: Elizabeth Edwards holds a GOTV rally at the Oak Lane Diner, Philadelphia, PA
—1:00 pm: Gov. Pataki holds a Bush-Cheney rally at Morris Green, Morristown, NJ
—2:00 pm: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Judd Gregg meet with volunteers and hold a press conference at the Bush-Cheney campaign headquarters, Derry, NH
—2:20 pm: President Bush holds a Victory 2004 rally at Legends Field, Tampa, FL
—2:30 pm: Teresa Heinz Kerry speaks to volunteers at the Kerry-Edwards campaign office, Ames, IA
—2:50 pm: Jenna, Barbara and George P. Bush and Doro Bush Koch visit the Camp Hill Victory 2004 Center, Camp Hill, PA
—3:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a Fresh Start for America rally at City Hall Plaza, Manchester, NH
—3:05 pm: Vice President Cheney holds a 72-hour-kickoff rally, Fort Dodge, IA
—3:30 pm: Gov. Pataki helps phone bank and canvass at the Bush-Cheney headquarters, Erie, PA
—3:50 pm: Sen. Edwards goes canvassing, Columbus, OH
—4:20 pm: President Bush holds a Victory 2004 rally at the University Air Field, Gainesville, FL
—5:00 pm: Former Vice President Al Gore holds a rally on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards ticket at Flint Southwestern Academy, Flint, MI
—5:05 pm: Jenna, Barbara, and George P. Bush and Doro Bush Koch visit the Dauphin County Victory 2004 Center, Harrisburg, PA
—6:15 pm: Gov. Pataki attends a Bush-Cheney Halloween festival at Apple Ridge Farms, Auburn, ME
—6:55 pm: Vice President Cheney holds a Victory 2004 rally, Los Lunas, NM
—7:00 pm: Former President Clinton attends a GOTV Rally, Little Rock, AK
—7:45 pm: Sen. Edwards holds a rally at Livingston Aviation in Waterloo, IA
—8:00 pm: President Bush makes holds a Victory 2004 rally at the Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
—10:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a Fresh Start for America rally, Tampa, FL
—3:50 am: Vice President Cheney holds a rally at the Hawaii Convention Center, Honolulu, HI