"The Short List Is Said to Include . . . "
WASHINGTON, Dec. 13, 2004 — -- 38 Days Until Inauguration Day
To: Writers of The Note
From: the Googling Monkeys
Date: 12/13/04
Re: Monday options for covering the Kerik story
Given the nature of the news cycle; our desire to always be forward looking; and the relative lack of other political news -- we see all sorts of ways to go on this.
1. A faux memo from Sunny Mindel to Rudy, laying out the state of play.
For instance:
"Putting you out partly on the record and partly on background Friday night worked pretty well. The danger point comes midweek, when the Voice and the Observer are sure to exercise their usual level of restraint and animus. Your uncharacteristically apologetic stance has put most of the rest of the media in a trance -- as I assured you it would. As long as the White House shares our goal of putting this behind us, we should be fine . . ."
2. A high-minded Brookings/AEI reminder that the job in question -- Secretary of Homeland Security -- is a hugely important position, and the focus should be on finding the right person to do the work.
3. A media analysis -- one part Kurtzian, one part Village Voice -- on the amazing difference between how the New York Post and New York Daily News are playing this story. The Post's weekend editorial LINK and Podhoretz column LINK were pieces of work.
4. A handicapping of the alleged short list (the same bloody six names over and over again, with no real sense of if any of them are actually being considered).
5. A round-up of the best "I told you so" articles from the time the intention to nominate Kerik was announced -- although nobody can hold a candle to Newsday's Ellis Henican.
6. Our long-gestating and lengthy profile of White House personnel chief Dina Powell, and how her shop works with the Counsel's office on big nominations.
7. A cheeky essay on what this does to Rudy for '08.
8. Simply reprinting in their entirety the from-the-get-go statements from Sens. Schumer and Clinton supporting the pick.
9. A reminder of why President Bush normally fills sensitive jobs with people whom he has known for years and/or people who have experience in elective public office.
10. The full list of all congressional committees with oversight over the Department of Homeland Security, so anyone the President picks can know how much of his or her time they will get to spend on the Hill and preparing for such appearances.
We have rejected all those options.
This morning, the President announced Mike Leavitt as his nominee to head HHS. That is a guy who has been fully vetted in every way that matters. (See #9 above.)
As for Bernie Kerik:
"The White House is scrambling to find a Homeland Security secretary with management experience and national stature to fill the void after Bernard Kerik abruptly withdrew his nomination. But few qualified contenders want the job, according to administration insiders, senior Republicans and top officials inside the Department of Homeland Security," write the Wall Street Journal's Robert Block and John McKinnon, who make sure to put the Lieberman speculation right up top and use the "rare setback" line that was repeated endlessly all weekend. LINK
"Mr. Kerik's withdrawal Friday night -- prompted by his failure to pay taxes on the work of an immigrant nanny who may have been in the U.S. illegally, and questions about how that would affect his credibility enforcing immigration law -- has been a rare setback for a disciplined White House in the midst of turnover in its top ranks."
The duo take a look at the candidates chosen to fill most of the Cabinet and agency slots that have been left vacant, but Note that "the administration's biggest challenge may be homeland security. More than two years after its creation, the department is viewed by many Democrats and Republicans as too bureaucratic and in dire need of strong leadership."
Today, representatives of the Electoral College gather in their respective states (and the District of Columbia) to cast their votes for President and Vice President. With varying degrees of pomp and circumstance, the ceremonies differ from state to state. Most will run a little longer than an hour and often they incorporate an address from the governor before electors sign documents to allocate their votes. Expect to see some version of a photo op in most states.
On Jan. 6, 2005, the electoral votes will be counted in a joint session of Congress (unless Congress passes a law to change the date).
But there's no forgetting Ohio. Even as the Buckeye State's electors cast their ballots, the statewide recount begins today, and will continue through the week until all 88 counties are complete.
Today, President Bush is in Washington with no public events beyond the Health and Human Services announcement this morning.
Tomorrow, he awards the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Ambassador Paul Bremer, Gen. Tommy Franks (Ret.), and former CIA Director George Tenet at the White House.
On Wednesday, the President meets with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi at the White House.
On Wednesday, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner heads to McLean, VA, to celebrate his 50th birthday at a fundraising dinner in his honor.
The White House hosts an economic meeting with Bush Administration advisers and business leaders on Wednesday and Thursday.
On Friday morning, the President will sign the hard-fought-over intelligence bill to much fanfare, ABC News' Ann Compton reports.
The House and Senate are adjourned sine die, and will return to work at noon Jan. 4, 2005.
The Commerce Department reports this morning that November showed 0.1 percent growth in retail sales, beating analysts' expectations, reports ABC News' Daniel Arnall -- most thought there would be no growth during the month. In addition, October's retail report was revised to show 0.8 percent growth, as opposed to the 0.2 percent growth estimated earlier. "Because retail spending accounts for almost two-thirds of all economic activity in the U.S. economists keep a close eye on this report. The months of November and December are key for most retailers. In some cases, sales during the holiday season accounts for up to half of all annual sales," Arnall reports.
Back to the news of day . . .
William Rashbaum and Kevin Flynn of the New York Times write that "other questions surfaced after [Kerik's] nomination was announced: his ties to Interstate, his huge profits from companies doing business with the Homeland Security Department, accusations that he abused his authority in an investigation of employees working for a Saudi Arabian hospital 20 years ago, his effectiveness as interim Iraqi interior minister." LINK
The New York Times' David Sanger looks at the Administration's defense of its vetting process with Kerik. LINK
"Administration officials seemed eager on Sunday to dispel any notion that [White House Counsel Alberto] Gonzales's office short-circuited the process in the case of Mr. Kerik or was not alert to potential problems in his background. They described a vetting process more intense than usual before a presidential nomination, asserting that Mr. Kerik brought his troubles on himself by failing to flag the issue of his housekeeper despite repeated questioning on the subject."
The New York Daily News claims Kerik had affairs that have been caught up in civil suits. LINK
Elisabeth Bumiller and Eric Lipton of the New York Times look at how the Kerik debacle might have strained the relationship between former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and President Bush -- which might have made last night's dinner at the White House more than a tad uncomfortable. LINK
With Kerik out of the picture, USA Today's Susan Page reports Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said Asa Hutchinson, a top Homeland Security official, or Lieberman would be "terrific choices." LINK
USA Today's editorial board case studies Bernard Kerik "the latest Exhibit A for what happens to anyone considering a senior government job. First, elation. Second, a sense of dread at a vetting process so intrusive it can unearth even the most deeply buried skeletons. Then, for some like Kerik, a third stage: getting sunk by it." LINK
Does Sen. Lieberman have Joementum? LINK
(We think not . . . )
On Sunday, Bumiller and Lipton tick tocked the decision by President Bush to accept Bernard Kerik's withdrawal of his nomination to be Homeland Security chief, after the White House decided his was a no-win situation. LINK
On Sunday, the Washington Post's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen looked at the White House's position that Kerik wasn't forthcoming. LINK
"It is unclear why White House lawyers could not uncover a warrant that Newsweek discovered after a few days of research, although some are blaming Bush's insistence on speed and secrecy for failing to catch this and other potential red flags in Kerik's background."
You had to read all the way to find this graph that the boys buried:
"Kerik insisted he was unaware of the problem until last week; White House officials privately said he was lying or showed terrible judgment."
On Sunday, Janet Hook of the Los Angeles Times put the Kerik withdrawal in perspective in terms of Bush's second-term appointments. LINK
The Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings predicts some tough questioning in the confirmation process for Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns, Condoleezza Rice, and Alberto Gonzales. LINK
Cummings also Notes that "Controversy still could emerge, since the president has yet to announce his pick for the newly created national intelligence czar, who will oversee the nation's spy networks, and the secretary of Health and Human Services, an agency that manages such hot-button issues as abortion and stem-cell policy. Mr. Bush's decision to tap government veterans for his second-term cabinet and Democrats' inclination to hold their fire for a likely battle over a U.S. Supreme Court nominee is expected to tamp down contentious confirmation hearings."
Helen Dewar and Mike Allen examine the political the ins and outs of a Senate filibuster as speculation mounts that Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist may resign from the Supreme Court soon because of thyroid cancer. Senate Republican leaders are gripping for a showdown with Democrats over a potential nominee. Last month Sen. Frist described the filibustering judicial nominees as a "formula for tyranny by the minority."
The Post's duo Notes similarly strong counterpoint language from Minority Leader Reid. "If they, for whatever reason, decide to do this, it's not only wrong, they will rue the day they did it, because we will do whatever we can do to strike back." LINK
Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal writes that while Social Security is getting all the attention, overhauling Medicare is the thing that could really kill the budget, and is a tougher problem to solve. LINK
On Sunday, the Boston Globe's Michael Kranish reported that President Bush is looking at a plan to go along with his proposal for private investment accounts in Social Security that would cut future benefits by 6 percent. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Joel Havemann on Sunday wrote that as part of his move to change Social Security, the President is first working to convince the public that it is heading for bankruptcy. LINK
"The administration's assessment of the problem is a far cry from 2000, when Bush said in a presidential debate in Boston that he would pay for his overhaul plan by using half of the budget surplus. That surplus no longer exists. Bush has also said repeatedly that he would not pay for the plan by raising Social Security taxes. Many analysts think that leaves only the option now under serious consideration, which is to change the way Social Security benefits are calculated from a system of wage indexing to price indexing."
Eight men who want to be the chair of the Democratic Party spoke on Saturday to the state chairs and other party leaders in lovely Lake Buena Vista, FL.
While Howard Dean is the best known of the eight, it isn't clear that the person who will actually be elected by the full DNC in February will be any of those who spoke. There is still time for other candidates to get into this race, and, indeed, some insiders are predicting that will happen.
Rumor, indecision, and confusion reign. Some Democrats are even speculating that the current chair, Terry McAuliffe, might stay on the job for another extra year in order to deal with the chaos. Even the sharpest and most inside party activists say it is impossible to handicap this contest now, and nothing seemed to happen in the speeches to change that.
There are clearly going to be a lot of conference calls, meetings, and e-mails over the next two months as the various factions, personalities, and groups with an interest in the outcome try to influence who the DNC members vote for.
No one knows how strong Dean is going to be in this race (He's pledged not to run for President in '08 if he gets this job.). Saturday was the first time he fully acknowledged being a candidate for chair, although he could of course pull out of the race still (as could, and probably will, others).
If he seems to be emerging as a front-runner, there will clearly be a movement in some quarters of the party to find a "stop Dean" candidate. Dean maintains that if he wins it won't be a "hostile takeover," and said, "I want to be the chair of a party that wants to change."
Like many of the would-be candidates, he said he will only continue to run if he thinks he can win.
Dean and others said that the party needs to be more like the Republicans in terms of constant organization in the states.
They also paid homage to the notion of having the party's message come from "the ground up."
Surprisingly, President Bush's name was not uttered during the auditions -- but Tom DeLay got attacked twice and Donald Rumsfeld once. There was very little discussion of a positive issues agenda and only a handful of mentions of national security.
On Sunday, the Washington Post's Dan Balz had a great look at what Democrats and their would-be leaders tried to accomplish in Florida. LINK
"Whether any new party chairman can provide everything that Democrats say they need to restore themselves to power is questionable, but because the selection of a new party leader represents the first collective action after that defeat, the February election has taken on greater significance than it might ordinarily assume. … Democrats appear to be looking for a chairman who can simultaneously be the face and voice of the party, serve as a tactician who can shape up the party machinery, and maintain the prodigious fundraising success of outgoing Chairman Terence R. McAuliffe."
The New York Times' Adam Nagourney sized up the field of eight who addressed Democrats in Florida in hopes of leading the party. LINK
Bloomberg News' agile Richard Keil over the weekend looked at the differences between Howard Dean, Don Fowler Jr. and the six other candidates for the chairmanship when it comes to a Democratic strategy for retaking the White House. LINK
From Lake Buena Vista on Saturday, the Washington Post's Balz wrote that outgoing DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe outlined the Republican successes that he believes his party should learn from, including message, message, message -- and spared Sen. John Kerry from criticism. LINK
On Saturday, the New York Times' Nagourney Notes that McAuliffe reflected that "it might have been impossible for any Democrat to have unseated Mr. Bush in an atmosphere forged by the Sept. 11 attacks." LINK
"Yet more than anything, the speeches amounted to a portrait of a party in trouble, filled with grudging admiration of what Republicans had done and concern that Democrats had not done enough."
The New York Times' Neela Banjeree writes that Christian conservatives are ready to take the influence they apparently wielded in the election out for a spin, seeking to influence state and local initiatives on tough social issues. LINK
The Los Angeles Times editorial board cuts President Bush some slack in preparations of today's Electoral College proceedings. "Even die-hard supporters of Kerry should thank their unlucky stars that he lost Ohio, to spare the country such an undemocratic outcome." LINK
A recount of the Nov. 2 presidential election in Ohio's 88 counties will begin today, though there is little chance the second count will produce a new winner. LINK
Demonstrations organized by groups who question the accuracy of Bush's win in Ohio are planning demonstrations outside of the state house. Also today, a group of congressional Democrats will hold a field hearing on irregularities in the Ohio vote. Reps. John Conyers of Michigan, Maxine Waters of California and Stephanie Tubbs Jones and Ted Strickland of Ohio are expected to attend, along with the Rev. Jesse Jackson. LINK
AP reports that Sen. John Kerry is asking Ohio elections officials to allow his representatives to see the 92,000 ballots cast there for which no presidential vote was tallied. LINK
The AP's Sharon Theimer reports Sen. John Kerry's loss was not for lack of money. New analysis from Political Money Line shows pro-Dem groups raised "almost twice as much money as their Republican rivals in the presidential race," in addition to record fund-raising by Kerry and the Democratic Party. LINK
John Kerry's trip to Iowa (with family in tow) was redolent with meaning. LINK
The New York Times' Michael Janofsky looks at the security preparations for the first post-Sept. 11 presidential inauguration. LINK
In one of those fascinating and rare peeks at the inner workings of White House -- the Washington Post's Dan Balz profiles Pete Wehner, who "runs the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives (or the Office of Strategery, as it is known inside the building after a 'Saturday Night Live' skit spoofing the president's mangling of the English language)." As Karl Rove described the post in Wehner's interview for the gig, "He said my job is to bug him."
"The OSI was Rove's idea, created shortly after President Bush was elected in 2000. It is the smallest unit in the Rove empire, with six employees, and represents the closest thing the White House has to an in-house think tank." LINK
The Legal Times' T.R. Goldman reports Harriet Miers, who is President Bush's choice to replace Attorney General designate Alberto Gonzales as White House counsel, "has long been one of the most discreet, most private, and most protective members of George W. Bush's inner circle."
USA Today's William M. Welch helps Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle pack up his office overlooking the National Mall, and a 26-year political career in Washington. Welch reports Daschle has no interest in becoming a lobbyist but rather he may teach and write, plans to enter business. LINK
On Sunday, the New York Times' Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Carl Hulse penned a farewell profile of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. LINK
The Washington Post's Eric Pianin also looked at Daschle's exit on Sunday. LINK
New York Gov. George Pataki is changing his consultant lineup -- and Finkelstein and Mahoney are out, the New York Post's remorseless Dicker reports. LINK