The Note: Wise to Resolve, and Patient to Perform

— -- 14 days to the Inauguration

Every day for the rest of January, we will be sharing with you one of our New Year's resolutions.

Today, let it be known that we resolve to make fun less often of a certain United States Senator.

Senator X (as we shall call "him") isn't the ONLY person in Washington who likes to hear himself talk, but there does seem to be a higher-than-average level of enjoyment emanating from his mouth and eyes as he speaks.

From his assurances that he is being "frank" and "serious," to his pledges that he is not being "facetious," this stalwart of the World's Most Deliberative Body continues to amaze us -- and his colleagues -- with his capacity to jabber on and on in high dudgeon and low, without any sense of how he is perceived. He will seize any opportunity to pontificate, expressing his views with fervid self-assurance and with little concern for time constraints or his audience.

It has come to our attention over the last several years (Note: we are slow learners) that our gentle teasing does not always sit well with Senator X, his staff, or his family, so we have decided to back way off.

It is, however, important to think of Senator X (and, more to the point, our "Rule of Senator X") while watching two quintessential Capitol Hill rituals today -- the opening of the confirmation hearings for Alberto Gonzales to be Attorney General and the official certification of the Electoral College results by the Congress.

As you listen to members of Congress speak during those two majestic events, ask yourself: are they talking to hear themselves talk (and prove just how smart they are) or are they talking to further some public policy goal and exercise leadership?

Keep a running tally; it will be fun.

While those two events have known outcomes (Gonzales will be confirmed, we betcha, with perhaps 15 Democratic votes or more, and full Republican support; the President's re-election -- the Boxer Rebellion notwithstanding -- will be secured), it is the battle over changing Social Security that remains the centerpiece of the politics of 2005 and there we turn to the Wall Street Journal's feisty Jackie Calmes for that.

Look beyond Ms. Calmes' hyping of CongressDaily's scoop of White House aide Peter Wehner's "secret," "private" strategy memo on Social Security to these two key paragraphs of hers (whose nuanced meaning and implications will be as obvious to Note readers as they are to party strategists):

"Senate Republicans signaled their wariness yesterday in a private retreat on the year's legislative agenda with White House adviser Karl Rove. An attendee said the senators gave Mr. Rove 'a subtle but clearly identifiable message that the GOP [Grand Old Party] would go along...but they were scared to death.' The senators indicated that the president 'had to step up his activity' to sell his initiative to Americans, which Mr. Rove said Mr. Bush would do. But the attendee said senators also warned the Social Security proposal 'needed to be bipartisan or else no go.'"

"Still, some Republicans are resigned to uniting behind the president, given his determination. 'The president is going to go ahead,' said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a Republican leadership lieutenant. 'He cannot afford to fail. It would have repercussions for the rest of his program, including foreign policy. We can't hand the president a defeat on his major domestic initiative at a time of war.'"

Tom Cole, who is smart enough to once have been both the Secretary of State of Oklahoma and the then-governor's pollster, is once again on the leading edge; watch closely that narrative line.

As for the Gonzales hearings, they begin at 9:30 am ET, and we're expecting a lot of speechifying. Some reporters might be disappointed and shocked if there are no smoking guns or claims of high-tech lynchings.

On the Electoral College front . . .

So much low-level drama has surrounded the planned challenge to Ohio's electoral votes by a group of at least a dozen House Democrats, and whether or not their attempts to win Senate support for their efforts would actually stick.

Sen. Barbara Boxer ended speculation about what she'll do with a letter to Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH), saying that she will join the objection, delaying the inevitable certification for a few hours.

First, let's walk through the process.

At 1:00 pm ET today, Electoral College slates will be pulled from two mahogany boxes and read aloud on the floor of the House.

Rep. John Conyers of Michigan and others have said they will rise to protest the Ohio electoral allotment specifically. They will charge that the vote certification is not legitimate, that the Secretary of State there ruled with bias, that the exit polls differed from the vote tallies, that minority communities experienced long lines and voter intimidation, that county election officials made mistakes, or worse, when canvassing the ballots.

ABC News' Ed O'Keefe reminds us that the electoral tally goes in alphabetical order by state so the challenge will stop the process at the 35th state. When Boxer joins the written objection to Ohio's tally, the joint session will end, the chambers will separate, and each will consider the objection for up to two hours.

Sen. John Kerry will miss the drama; he is traveling in the Middle East and said in a statement Wednesday that while he would not join a protest, he strongly supports election system reform (He'll introduce legislation to wit soon.) and labels as "very troubling" what some Democrats have alleged.

There was plenty of high-level Democratic pressure to talk Boxer out of doing this. They do not welcome the spectacle of Jesse Jackson and Granny D holding little rallies outside the Capitol. And they acknowledge it makes them look like poor losers, since, after all, Bush did win Ohio by more than 100,000 votes.

"Senate Democratic aides say few if any Democratic Senators will vote to support the challenge, with the exception of Boxer," ABC News' Linda Douglass reports. "Some Democrats, like Ted Kennedy, may make floor statements calling for election reform but not challenging the outcome of this election. It is not clear how many will speak, since many senators have already left town," Douglass reports.

"Republicans are delighted. A leadership aide calls this a 'golden opportunity to remind people that President Bush won and John Kerry lost. Bring it on.'"

Doug Chapin and colleagues at electionline.org (http://www.electionline.org) have a post-election report that's a must-read for anyone concerned about election administration.

The Hill fronts the story: LINK

The New York Times' Sheryl Gay Stolberg Notes that "could prove uncomfortable for Democrats, who do not want to be viewed as sore losers. But Republicans seemed eager for it." LINK

Rick Klein and Susan Milligan of the Boston Globe lead with Sen. Boxer's consideration of challenging Ohio's electoral votes. LINK

Cam Kerry offers up an inside look at the forces marshaled on election night to watchdog and deal with voting problems and issues in a Boston Globe op-ed, arguing that while this election is over, the need to investigate and overhaul the system to make sure votes are counted continues. LINK

Conyers released a report on Wednesday outlining voter problems in Ohio, alleging that the irregularities were the result of deliberate misconduct, and urging the challenge of the state's electoral votes. LINK

At 3:00 pm ET, the Congressional Black Caucus holds a news conference to discuss the certification of the electoral votes.

At 10:00 am ET Rev. Jesse Jackson, Green Party presidential candidate David Cobb, along with other voting rights activists including We Do Not Concede, the Freedom Winter Bus Riders, and "Save Our Votes" will hold a rally in Lafayette Park to call on Congress "to reject Ohio's tainted Electoral College votes."

A spokesman for the Green Party says the coalition knows there is no hope of overturning Ohio or the outcome of the presidential election at this point, but rather they hope to create a public dialogue and record for voting irregularities.

On to the rest of the day, in chronological order:

The Labor Department released the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 am ET.

House Republicans hold a closed party conference at 9:00 am ET.

The Senate meets for morning business at 9:30 am ET, and Senators head over to the House chamber to count the electoral votes at 12:50 pm ET.

At 10:00 am ET, the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Margaret Spellings to be Secretary of Education.

Also at 10:00 am ET, the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Nebraska Gov. Michael Johanns to be Secretary of Agriculture.

At 10:00 am ET, New Democratic Network President Simon Rosenberg announces his candidacy for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee at the National Press Club. At 12:30 pm ET, Rosenberg hits a private luncheon on the Hill with supporters.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) holds her regular news conference at 10:45 am ET.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee holds a press conference at 11:00 am ET, during which Democratic Leader Harry Reid (NV) and DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (NY) (he of the come-hither stare on the DSCC Web site), with the new regional vice chairs to discuss the new leadership. Reid and Schumer will be joined by Sens. Durbin (IL), Stabenow (MI), Obama (IL), Pryor (AR), Reed (RI), Wyden, (OR), and Boxer (CA).

And we're betting that the presence of Sen. Boxer will prompt the conversation to turn toward her supporting the challenge to the Ohio electoral vote.

The House meets at 11:00 am ET to swear in any stray members who haven't taken the oath of office and handle some housekeeping and is expected to recess shortly thereafter. Members will reconvene for the joint session at 1:00 pm ET.

At 11:30 am ET, Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) announces legislation to create a global tsunami warning system.

At 1:20 pm ET, President Bush meets with bicameral and bipartisan members ofCongress on class action reform in the Cabinet Room at the White House.

At 2:15 pm ET President and Mrs. Bush introduce Miss Beazley to the world on the South Lawn.

At 2:30 pm ET, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge announces the National Response Plan in a press conference.

Secretary of State Colin Powell attends an international summit on aid for the tsunami victims in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) is in Sri Lanka, visiting a mobile health unit, observing aid distribution, and meeting with school officials.

House Armed Services Chairman Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) heads a CODEL to Norfolk, VA, Camp Lejeune in and Seymore Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina, and leads Fort Bliss and Brooke Army Medical Center in Texas. Others on the trip: Reps. John Duncan (R-TN), Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD), Howard McKeon (R-CA), Walter Jones (R-NC), Silvestre Reyes (D-TX), Heather Wilson (R-NM), Robin Hayes (R-NC), Lamar Smith (R-TX) and Thelma Blake (R-VA).

You Can Call Him "Al"

The New York Times' Eric Litchblau reports that Judge Gonzales today will offer an "unapologetic defense of a draft memorandum he wrote in 2002 describing parts of the Geneva Conventions as 'quaint' and 'obsolete.'" LINK

R. Jeffrey Smith of the Washington Post looks at the criticism of Gonzales' clemency advice to then-Gov. Bush when he was the governor's counsel in Texas -- allegations that his summaries of case evidence and circumstances were unfair or incomplete. LINK

Charlie Savage of the Boston Globe takes a closer look at Gonzales' career in Texas, and writes that his rise to influence was hastened by "patronage and financial support from new friends in high places." Imagine that for a political appointee. LINK

But here's the nut graf that we can imagine coming up: "Gonzales invested in a company backed by billionaire Ross Perot and the son of former Senator Lloyd Bentsen, then got out at an opportune time. When Gonzales gave up his law firm salary to work for then-Governor Bush, the Texas attorney general, a law school classmate, gave his wife a job. When he was on the Texas Supreme Court and faced reelection, he accepted campaign funds from firms that had cases before the bench."

The Los Angeles Times' Richard Schmitt looks at the ethnic presence that will infuse Gonzales' hearing, whose Latino background has in some ways calmed the opposition to his nomination by civil rights groups. But, Schmitt writes, "Latinos are more conflicted about the nominee than his political backers have suggested. Some groups are opposing the nomination or withholding judgment, saying that, despite the historic significance of his nomination, they have profound concerns about Gonzales' record." And both sides are alleging playing politics with ethnicity. LINK

The Washington Post's Dana Priest and Dan Eggen outline an allegation of torture by a terror suspect transferred by U.S. officials to Egypt, where he says he was abused, before being moved to the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The key points, which Priest and Eggen quite rightly point out are likely to figure prominently in Alberto Gonzales' confirmation hearing, are Gonzales' opinions on what constitutes torture and what are acceptable tactics in interrogating terror suspects (i.e., the August 2002 memo), and Gonzales' reported participation in the Administration's policy about renditions -- transferring prisoners to countries likely to use methods that, to put it mildly, differ from the stated U.S. standards, to put it mildly. LINK

The Boston Globe's Brian Bender reports that the military on Wednesday launched an investigation into allegations that prisoners have been abused at Gitmo. LINK

Bush Cabinet:

The Wall Street Journal says that Bob Zoellick will be nominated as deputy to Secretary of State-presumptive Rice.

The Journal also has a good A4 story on the Department of Homeland Security which suggests that Joe Hagin does not have the brains of Lee Iacocca and the body of Clint Eastwood, and we think that that is silly.

USA Today's Richard Benedetto looks at the personal stories President Bush finds appealing in his nominees. "Strikingly, many of his appointees have humble backgrounds or overcame hardships to succeed in business, government or both." LINK

Social Security:

Scoop! Jackie Calmes of the Wall Street Journal (following CongressDaily) obtained a memo from Peter Wehner, a senior administration official, meant for the eyes of the President's conservative allies and some legislators.

Boy, the media sure is fascinated with secret memos.

"The memo disputes those on the right who insist that creating private investment accounts is all that's needed to fix the retirement system."

What else? Why, tamping down the burden of the trust fund, of course, by reducing the benefits paid to future retirees.

"For years, Mr. Bush has emphasized the upside of private accounts -- potential investment gains for workers. The memo goes beyond anything the president and his team have said publicly about the pain -- as lawmakers call benefit reductions -- that would accompany a Social Security fix."

"'You may know,' Mr. Wehner wrote, 'that there is a small number of conservatives who prefer to push only for investment accounts and make no effort to adjust benefits.'"

"Calling that 'a bad idea,' he added, 'We simply cannot solve the Social Security problem with Personal Retirement Accounts alone. If the goal is permanent solvency and sustainability -- as we believe it should be,' such accounts 'for all their virtues, are insufficient to that task.'"

"Reflecting the White House's druthers among cost-saving options, Mr. Wehner's memo, reported by CongressDaily, a twice-daily news service, advocates a change in the formula for how workers' initial Social Security benefits are calculated. Under current law, that calculation is based on a taxpayer's actual earnings for a given period and the overall rise of wages nationally. Once a worker is retired, benefit increases are tied to inflation under current law. The administration leans toward indexing workers' benefits to the inflation rate, which rises more slowly than wages."

The New York Times' Dick Stevenson traces the concerns of two camps with the Republican Party who are prepared for battle over Social Security. LINK

"The main issues, they said, are whether Mr. Bush should back a proposal to reduce substantially the guaranteed government retirement benefit through a change in the way the benefit is calculated, and whether workers should be allowed to contribute all of their Social Security payroll taxes into their accounts or only a part."

"The indications so far, they said, are that Mr. Bush will stick with his inclination to reduce scheduled benefits to assure the retirement system's long-term solvency, and that he will back smaller accounts than many of his supporters would like. But to bridge the gap between the sides in the debate, they said, the administration is considering several proposals, including phasing in increases in the size of the accounts over many years or allowing lower-income workers to invest a higher proportion of their wages in private accounts than upper-income people would be permitted to invest."

"One group of Republicans is pressing the administration to make the accounts as big as possible, preferably permitting the investment of all or nearly all of the 6.2 percent levy on wages that individuals contribute to Social Security. (Under all proposals, employers would continue to pay an additional 6.2 percent tax on each employee's wages up to a wage cap that this year is $90,000.)"

"Many of the same Republicans have also come out forcefully against a proposal to deal with Social Security's long-term financial problems by reducing the part of future retirement benefits that would come from the government."

Stevenson reports that Bush will speak on the issue next week.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley said he'll urge the President to take a bipartisan approach when he meets privately with the Big Man today. LINK

Bush agenda:

The Washington Post's Peter Baker wraps President Bush's med mal campaign stop in Illinois yesterday, and reports that he heads to Michigan tomorrow to urge limits for asbestos-related lawsuits. LINK

Robert Pear's write-up is largely he-said, they said. LINK

(But there's this accompanying article, which boosts the President's claims a bit. LINK

Congress:

David Rogers in the Wall Street Journal has an excellent, short, summary of some of the changes in Republican committee leadership and the chances for tighter fiscal (and party) discipline.

Congratulations, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA), on becoming Appropriations chairman. LINK

The Boston Globe's Tom Oliphant can't find two kind words to rub together about House Speaker Dennis Hastert's leadership over the ethics rules. LINK

The bell tolls for thee, Rep. Hefley -- on the ethics committee, although Mike Allen's last three graphs suggest that it might be tough to find a replacement. LINK

Iraq:

The New York Times' Dexter Filkins and David Sanger look at the White House's continuing tightrope walking on the question of a potential delay in the Iraqi elections. LINK

The Washington Post's Bradley Graham looks at the memo by Lt. Gen. James Helmly, the head of the Army Reserve, expressing concern about his troops' readiness and describing them as "'rapidly degenerating into a "broken" force.'" LINK

Karl Vick of the Washington Post reports on the violence and increasing pre-election tensions in Iraq on Wednesday, as well as Sen. John Kerry's visit to Baghdad, where he supported going forward with the elections on Jan. 30. LINK

Intel:

The Washington Post's Walter Pincus examines how the changes instituted at the CIA either by or because of Rep. Porter Goss' appointment to be director of central intelligence is affecting the makeup and focus of the agency, including changing analysts' priorities to "longer-range, broader strategic estimates" rather than the short summaries George Tenet tailored to the President and his advisers. LINK

Interesting graf: "Goss, who now does the White House morning meeting when the president is in town, has not had time to develop the same background on intelligence issues that Tenet brought to those sessions after five years on the job, and he has not had the same rapport with Bush, administration and intelligence sources said."

Dems regroup:

Will Lester of the AP gracefully follows our reporting of yesterday on efforts by some senior Democrats to convince Terry McAuliffe to extend his tour of duty as chair. LINK

Kudos to Chris Cillizza of Roll Call for breaking the story that Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel is taking on two big new roles -- a Ways and Means seat and the chair of the DCCC. As significant as those posts are, even in combination they are not enough to get Emanuel either as much press attention as Barack Obama or a character on an HBO show based on him.

Which reminds us: have you heard the one about the political party that engaged in oodles of post-election bellyaching about values voters, rural voters, and the potential electoral power of evangelical Christians, and then decides to tap two big-city Jewish guys to head up its efforts to win back control of the House and the Senate?

It's pretty funny.

But don't underestimate how aggressive and smart these guys are. And, as Pat Buchanan might say, they both know a lot of New York bankers.

Washington governor's race:

Nell Modie of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer wraps Washington state Republican Party chairman Chris Vance's press conference yesterday, where he continued his call for a re-vote based on the admission by a King County elections official that an unknown number of provisional ballots may have been improperly counted. LINK

The Seattle Times' Keith Ervin also fleshes out allegations by some election workers about the mishandling of ballots. LINK

The Schwarnezegger Era:

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Nicholas offers up an excellent look at Gov. Schwarzenegger's agenda to deal with spending, the budget deficit, congressional and legislative redistricting, prescription drugs, education, prisons, and streamlining state government. "If Schwarzenegger prevails, the most influential members of California's congressional delegation might find themselves running in reshaped districts with thousands of unfamiliar constituents. The poorest Californians could be paying less for prescription medication. And teachers deemed inept might be deprived of raises, no matter how long they'd been on the job." LINK

Nicholas also previews a brewing fight over pensions for state employees, which Schwarzenegger argues are currently too generous.

This agenda and how Schwarzenegger seeks to implement it could make or break his political career, writes the Los Angeles Times' Robert Salladay. LINK

"Democrats learned an important lesson about Schwarzenegger last year: He's not always successful at moving the public. He traveled the state telling voters in malls and chain restaurants that they needed to write and call their legislators urging them to pass his version of the budget. He called those legislators 'girlie men.'"

". . . There is no question that Schwarzenegger has tremendous power; he is one of the most popular politicians in the country. But his successes last year -- and there were many -- were small enough that political observers started comparing him to Davis, still an insult in Sacramento."

Gov. Schwarzenegger's call for redistricting and his version of governmental reform makes the New York Times, with John Broder Noting that "the proposals will be hugely controversial. Democrats have already indicated they will oppose the redistricting plans. State employee unions will balk at what they will call the privatization of the state pension fund. Teachers' unions will scream about merit pay. The Legislature, much of whose financial support comes from just those well-organized interests, is likely to hesitate to enact any of them." LINK

We hope headline writers and reporters never get tired of using the word "muscle" in stories about the Governator. The Washington Post's Amy Argetsinger wraps Gov. Schwarzenegger's State of the State address last night, complete with the implication that if he doesn't get the support he needs in the statehouse, he can take his bipartisan popularity out for a spin and take the issues straight to the voters. Schwarzenegger's budget, due out next week, is expected to chip away at the state's $8 billion budget deficit by cutting social services rather than raising taxes. LINK

He also called for a special session of the legislature to get down to the business of dealing with the budget deficit -- without, AP Notes, a detailed outline for fixing the problem without raising taxes. LINK

Full text: LINK