THE NOTE: Second Looks

Dec. 17, 2007 -- Put away your gun, Mitt Romney. (Varmints!)

Put down your hand, Fred Thompson. (Yes, we know you're still a candidate.)

Spend another night in a Holiday Inn Express, Mike Huckabee. (And take along a few copies of Foreign Affairs for some light reading.)

Save the magic carpet, Barack Obama.

Hold your Joe-mentum, John McCain.

Mari-mentum can wait, too, John Edwards.

Your tea won't get cold, Ron Paul.

Here comes the new, improved (freshly endorsed and officially more likeable) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. Four things Camp Clinton wants you to know:

-- People like her. (Exciting new site: http://www.TheHillaryIKnow.com)

-- Her family loves her (but they don't really care for Sen. Barack Obama).

-- Important people like her (particularly a certain group of newspaper editors in Des Moines).

-- She's just like Iowans (except she has a Hill-A-Copter.)

Two things they don't want you to know:

-- Her aides do not like each other at the moment (but they're not going to let that get in the way of the task at hand).

-- They remain terrified of Barack Obama (and should be worried about John Edwards, too).

The Des Moines Register's endorsement of Clinton matters less for the votes it moves than for the storyline it shifts. The wooing worked, and the timing is perfect for a campaign that's been near panic in recent weeks.

Notice who's riding high (literally, given the new campaign helicopter, and figuratively, giving the suddenly glowing press coverage).

If Democratic caucus-goers accept this frame, Hillary Clinton will be the presidential nominee: "The choice, then, comes down to preparedness: Who is best prepared to confront the enormous challenges the nation faces -- from ending the Iraq war to shoring up America's middle class to confronting global climate change?" the editorial board wrote. "Obama, her chief rival, inspired our imaginations. But it was Clinton who inspired our confidence."

How's this for confidence? A full round on five morning shows on Monday. (Think that would have happened if the Register went with Obama?)

"There's just an enormous amount of positive energy," Clinton told ABC's Chris Cuomo on "Good Morning America".

But she seemed a bit conflicted when asked about her husband's recent comments, questioning Obama's qualifications. "This campaign is about me and my ideas," she said.

Then, a few moments later: "Your spouse gets to stand up for you, gets to speak for you, just like, you know, the wives of everybody else running. I don't see that we have to respond to everything that is said by anybody else. I'm very glad that Bill is out there making the case for me."

And this new explanation for the Billy Shaheen incident: "We asked him to step down," Clinton said on MSNBC. (Silly us thought he resigned on his own accord -- wonder who could have made us think that, Mark Penn?)

Clinton continued, "Every time somebody in my campaign says something that we don't believe is right, appropriate, we take care of it, we move quickly." (Every time? So we assume, senator, that you asked Tom Vilsack to step aside and he refused?)

Back to Bill . . . the former president was more making the case against Obama than he was arguing for his wife on Charlie Rose. Again and again he came back to Obama's lack of experience, calling it "less predictable" and "rolling the dice" to go with someone with so little experience. "When I was a governor and young and thought I was the best politician in the Democratic Party, I didn't run the first time. I could have," the former president said.

Shake-up or no shake-up (and the answer is no), the former president is making his presence and opinions known with his wife's campaign, per The New York Times' Patrick Healy. "The 'change, change, change' phrase, as some advisers call it, was coined by Mr. Clinton after he told campaign officials that the old strategy of running like an incumbent front-runner was not enough," Healy writes.

"Mr. Clinton is not running his wife's campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. But less than three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and with polls showing a tight race, he has become the most powerful force in her political operation besides the candidate herself." (And that, Clinton watchers know, cuts at least two ways.)

Obama is quoting the former president in swinging back, ABC's Sunlen Miller reports. He had this to say on Saturday (and the second sentence just may determine the Democratic primary): "I understand that there's a history of politics being all about slash and burn and taking folks down, and what I recall the Clintons themselves calling the politics of personal destruction, which they decried. And my suspicion is that that's just not where the country is at."

Obama has his own spousal weapons, per the Chicago Tribune's John McCormick. "While her husband barnstorms across early-voting states, often drawing hundreds or thousands, Michelle Obama is painstakingly campaigning at a much more retail level," McCormick writes.

"With a more emotional and direct appeal than her sometimes-professorial husband, she has been assigned a critical role: Michelle Obama is the closer. Although the senator seals the deal himself with many, his wife is often sent to follow up in towns he has recently visited."

But what if, while the national frontrunners have been hitting restart -- and tangling has twisted the top tier -- an opening has emerged for others to jump through?

There's former senator John Edwards, D-N.C., shut out of the big newspaper endorsements over the weekend but grabbing the cover of Newsweek instead.

And with Gov. Chet Culver, D-Iowa, staying neutral, Edwards on Monday gets the endorsement of the next best thing. First Lady Mari Culver tells the Des Moines Register's Tony Leys: "He's electable. . . . He's been tested. He's been on the national ticket before. The national polls show him beating all Republicans in the general elections. He inspires me."

Edwards is even working his non-endorsement by the Register (after grabbing that mantle four years ago) into his campaign narrative: He's ready to take on the powers that be. "I think the notion that you can sit at the table and negotiate and compromise, and these powerful interests will give away their power, I think is a fantasy," Edwards told George Stephanopoulos on ABC's "This Week."

Newsweek's Arian Campo-Flores and Suzanne Smalley write up Edwards' rural strategy -- and why that could make him a surprise winner in Iowa. (That was Dick Gephardt's strategy in 2004, but still.) "For months, Edwards has been rounding up support in the state's rural precincts where the front runners have paid less attention," they write. "Even if he loses to Obama and Clinton in the state's bigger cities, he can still win by wrapping up smaller, far-flung precincts that other candidates have ignored."

And then there's Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., grabbing an unlikely endorsement trifecta (Des Moines Register, New Hampshire Union Leader, and The Boston Globe) and then placing an independent-flavored cherry on top Monday morning with his endorsement by Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.

"Lieberman's endorsement of McCain could help him win over critical New Hampshire independents, who carried McCain to victory there in 2000 over then-Governor George W. Bush," ABC's Bret Hovell reports. (Remember Joe-mentum? Lieberman does.)

"The move, which will help cultivate McCain's moderate status, is an effort to draw attention to the McCain campaign, which needs a splash," Politico's Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin write. "Otherwise, it does not make sense for McCain because it will only remind core Republicans why they distrust him."

Another piece of good news for McCain: Another shift in strategy for former mayor Rudolph Giuliani, R-N.Y. The Feb. 5 strategy -- re-thought a few weeks back -- looks like it's back on.

Giuliani is pulling back in New Hampshire (McCain's must-win state), and placing his big bet on Florida -- his strongest early-voting state. But it gets late early there, and Jan. 29 is late for early in any event.

"The question for Giuliani is whether he can survive a series of losses before the campaign even gets to Florida on Jan. 29 -- losses that seem more likely now than when his campaign advisers hatched their 'national, late-state strategy' this year," Michael Shear writes in The Washington Post. "As a result of his absence, Giuliani is a distant third in polls in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and fourth in South Carolina."

All GOP eyes are on former governor Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., who continues to roil the Republican race all by himself. The New York Times' Michael Cooper takes a stab at the "chaotic interplay" of the GOP fight, as prompted by Huckabee's rise. "Mr. Romney finished a swing through Iowa that was meant to try to stem the rise of Mr. Huckabee there but hurried back to New Hampshire to defend his flank there," Cooper writes.

"And Mr. Giuliani, who chose Florida to refocus his campaign, gave a rare formal speech on Saturday in which he called for leading a 'revitalized, 50-state Republican Party into the White House.' But he found his address overshadowed that day by news of Mr. Huckabee's attack on the Bush administration's foreign policy."

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis: "Mike Huckabee gives us a new deck of cards to play with. . . . And anything that gives us a new deck of cards is a good thing."

Huckabee's essay in Foreign Affairs gives his opponents plenty of ammunition -- provided they're comfortable taking President Bush's side (and most are). "American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude, open up, and reach out," Huckabee writes. "The Bush administration's arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad."

Former governor Mitt Romney, R-Mass., jumped on it. "Did this come from Barack Obama? Or from Hillary Clinton? Did it come from John Edwards? No. It was one of our own. It was Gov. Huckabee," Romney said, ABC's Matt Stuart reports.

But Romney's got his own spinning to do after his "Meet the Press" appearance. He spoke about "the fact that I received the endorsement of the NRA" -- a simple falsehood. "The NRA declined to endorse in that race, as was acknowledged by Romney's spokesman this morning," The Washington Post's Michael Shear reports. In fact, Democrat Shannon O'Brien had a higher NRA rating than Romney in his 2002 race.

It was a defensive hour of television, with Romney tearing up when thinking about his church's reversal of its discriminatory practices. You will hear these line quoted: "If you're looking for someone who's never changed any positions on any policies, then I'm not your guy." And: "A fee is different than a tax."

And Rudy's not the only one with a business record drawing scrutiny. "While in private business, Mitt Romney utilized shell companies in two offshore tax havens to help eligible investors avoid paying U.S. taxes, federal and state records show," Bob Drogin reports in the Los Angeles Times. "Aides to the Republican presidential hopeful and former colleagues acknowledged that the tax-friendly jurisdictions helped attract billions of additional investment dollars to Romney's former company, Bain Capital, and thus boosted profits for Romney and his partners."

Also in the news:

Giuliani was profiled in Sunday's Washington Post, the last of the newspaper's "Front-Runners" series.

Dan Balz's take: "The former mayor has built his case for the nomination on tough talk about national security and on tireless promotion of his record of fighting crime and slashing welfare rolls in New York. His argument is aimed at proving that he is as conservative as the other leading candidates -- at least on those issues where he isn't."

It's not the Register, but Obama picked up the endorsement of The Boston Globe's editorial board -- probably as influential with Democrats in New Hampshire as the Union Leader is with Republicans.

"It is true that other Democratic contenders have more conventional resumes and have spent more time in Washington," the Globe's editorial board writes. "But that exposure has tended to give them a sense of government's constraints. Obama is more animated by its possibilities."

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times noticed a tweak in Obama's stump speech. Obama "was forced to revise a critical stump line of his on Saturday -- a flat declaration that lobbyists 'won't work in my White House' after it turned out his own written plan says they could, with some restrictions," Sweet writes.

Obama on Monday gets the endorsement of Rep. David Loebsack, D-Iowa.

Former senator Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., signed on with Clinton on Sunday, but he sure has plenty of nice things to say about Obama. And he says this to reporters after his endorsement event -- just maybe slightly naughtier than it is nice: "I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. . . . There's a billion people on the planet that are Muslims, and I think that experience is a big deal."

ABC's Jake Tapper tracks down Kerrey, who says he truly meant it as a compliment. Obama, he said, should "lead with it as a strength. There's this nonsense out there about him being a Muslim Manchurian candidate. He should do a commercial, look the camera straight in the eye, and say, 'My wife Michelle and I are Christians, but my father was a Muslim and my paternal grandfather was a Muslim, and that fact and my name means I can speak to a billion people around the world.' "

Tapper also looks at Lieberman's migration from the Democratic Party (though Lieberman loyalists see the entire Democratic Party moving from him -- and you've got to think Lieberman is smiling inside by shunning his old friend Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn.).

"A top Lieberman aide says the senator disagrees with McCain on many domestic matters, including abortion and affirmative action, but 'on the key issue, the central issue of being commander in chief, and leading the war against Islamic extremists, they see eye to eye,' " Tapper writes. "Additionally, the aide says, Lieberman sees McCain as having 'the unique ability to bring Democrats and Republicans together.' "

Evangelicals are back, Laura Meckler and Valerie Bauerlein declare in a Wall Street Journal front-pager. "Evangelical voters, dispirited with their options in the Republican presidential field for much of the year, are feeling new energy and intensity as they flock to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee," they write. "The candidate's quick rise is a vivid demonstration of the power social conservatives continue to wield in Republican politics. It also illustrates the bloc's evolution. Grass-roots churchgoers no longer necessarily follow their national leadership."

But Huckabee still may not last Newsweek's Michael Isikoff and Holly Bailey have details of another aspect of Huckabee's Arkansas record -- and as Mitt Romney knows, don't mess with pets. "One issue likely to get attention is his handling of a sensitive family matter: allegations that one of his sons was involved in the hanging of a stray dog at a Boy Scout camp in 1998," they write. "John Bailey, then the director of Arkansas's state police, tells NEWSWEEK that Governor Huckabee's chief of staff and personal lawyer both leaned on him to write a letter officially denying the local prosecutor's request" for help in the investigation.

Joe Trippi's still steamed at Mark Penn -- on Obama's behalf, of course. He tells ABC's Teddy Davis that it was "unconscionable" of Penn to drop the word "cocaine" in discussing Obama on TV last week.

If you believe the Paulites, Rep. Ron Paul's campaign shattered its own record on Sunday, with this "money bomb" commemorating the Boston Tea Party. His last big one-day haul -- $4.2 million -- lasted just six weeks in the record books, Michael Levenson reports in The Boston Globe. Says Boston TeaParty07 "spokeswoman" Rachael McIntosh: "This basically shows that Ron Paul is a viable candidate." (Basically, it doesn't, but oh my this is some serious cash.)

And the money was still flowing late into the evening: Paul, R-Texas, "raised an astounding $6 million and change Sunday, his campaign said, almost certainly guaranteeing he'll outraise his rivals for the Republican nomination in the fourth quarter and likely will be able to fund a presence in many of states that vote Feb. 5," Politico's Kenneth P. Vogel writes.

The latest from the Mike Bloomberg watch: "I don't know that it would be possible to win," Bloomberg, I-N.Y., tells the New York Daily News' Kirsten Danis. "I really do feel some kind of commitment to filling out the four years that I was elected to do. I don't know that it would be possible to win. There's a lot more to do as mayor of the city."

The kicker:

"I know you're going to inspect me. You can look inside my mouth if you want." -- Clinton, at a livestock auction barn.

"I have to clear up the most egregious error in that article. It said my home is pink. I would not have a pink house, I assure you." -- Romney, on The Boston Globe describing his Belmont, Mass., home as a "pink colonial."

"I think we're going in there right at the right time in the right way and going to spend the right amount of time." -- Fred Thompson, on "Face the Nation." Right.

"Republicans scare me." -- Elizabeth Edwards, saying that Huckabee "doesn't believe in evolution and has some nutty views about what it is we should do about ending violence in our inner city."

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