SNEAK PEEK: On to the Goal

Florida's winner take all primary could mean a huge lift for one GOP candidate

KAREN TRAVERS, MIKE ELMORE and TALAL AL-KHATIB

January 29, 2008, 7:18 PM ET

10 min read

January 29, 2008— -- 6 days until Super Tuesday

Florida Primary:

POLLS CLOSE:

8:00 PM ET

57 Republican delegates at stake – winner take all

0 Democratic delegates at stake

The nation is used to late nights watching results come in from Florida and tonight may be another one.

The Republican race in Florida has been this close in the final days and the guy who gets just one more vote wins the entire jackpot of 57 delegates.

(Order in, log on and follow the results and inside scoop all night with ABC News' Rick Klein)

The polls have been showing a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. A win for McCain would give him a huge bump in the delegate count and momentum heading into Super Tuesday which could bring in cold hard cash – something McCain needs to combat Romney's ability to throw more of his own money into the race. A win for Romney keeps this race exciting and sets up a 21-state showdown next Tuesday.

But what about the guy in third? Rudy Giuliani has staked his campaign on Florida and a third or fourth place finish may mean it's the end of the road for the former mayor.

ABC News' Jake Tapper reports that Giuliani "put on a brave face" today and pointed out Hillary Clinton's comeback win in New Hampshire.

"Don't listen to the polls," Giuliani said in Del Ray Beach. "Look at what happened in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton was supposed to lose by seven or eight points."

More from Tapper:

Giuliani's Palm Beach County Coordinator seemed resigned to a disappointing outcome.

"Obviously the polls show the momentum is with two other people," said Carl Dominio. He also said that Giuliani's Florida and Feb 5. strategy was a mistake. "You gotta show you can compete," he said. "He didn't have to win, he just had to be competitive.

The campaign is staying on course for Wednesday – or maybe they just want to give Jon Voight a ride back to Los Angeles – and has a plane set to take the Giuliani traveling press corps to California for the Republican debate at the Reagan Library.

ABC News' Tahman Bradley reports that once again Mitt Romney outspent his Republican rivals on television advertising in a Republican contest. In Florida, Romney spent more than all of his rivals combined. He also out spent his GOP rivals on television in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada.

Florida ad spending:

Romney	$5.3 Million
Giuliani	$3 Million
McCain	$2 Million
Huckabee	$0

ABC News' Bradley also reports that over 1 million Floridians already have voted through early voting or absentee ballot. That includes 521,036 on the Republican side and 451,946 on the Democratic side.

The Giuliani campaign is keeping their fingers crossed that a good chunk of those GOP ballots were post-marked before he started to take a drubbing in the early states and McCain and Romney emerged as the top two candidates in the Republican race.

A few things to keep an eye on tonight…

1. Turnout in the fabled I-4 corridor: About half of the state's Republican voters live along this corridor and a strong turnout there could be a good sign for Mitt Romney, who has been hammering away his economic message and credentials over the final days of the campaign.

2. South Florida: John McCain won the endorsement of Sen. Mel Martinez, a Cuban-American and popular figure in the state. A high turnout in Miami should be a good sign for McCain – Cuban-Americans could make up 10 percent of the Republican voters tonight.

3. Jacksonville Area: Ripe with religious conservatives, this area could be a battle between Romney and Mike Huckabee.

With all of the red hot action on the Republican side, don't forget there are still Democratic voters going to the polls tonight in Florida. The race is merely a beauty contest with no delegates up for grabs but ABC News' Eloise Harper reports that the Clinton campaign has a message for the media: Florida Matters.

Clinton is the only Democratic candidate to touches down in the Sunshine State today, when she holds an event tonight in Davie. She will be joined by Florida Senator Bill Nelson who will formally endorse her candidacy. But don't add a superdelegate to Clinton's tally – Nelson's superdelegate vote doesn't count in the quest for 2025 because of the DNC sanctions on the state.

Harper reports that since Clinton's loss in South Carolina, her campaign has been pushing the message that the Sunshine State is important -- even though the DNC has said that Florida's delegates will not be seated at the convention as punishment for moving its primary date up to January.

"We don't envision a circumstance in which the Democratic National Convention doesn't seat delegates from Michigan and Florida," Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson said on a conference call to reporters. "We know at the end of the day these delegations are going to get seated."

The sprint toward Super Tuesday kicks in Wednesday morning. Pay attention to where the Democratic candidates go in these first few days, since nobody has a good grasp on where the race stands in the Feb. 5 states, including the campaigns who are just now pivoting towards that day in earnest.

Barack Obama hits Colorado and Arizona; his wife Michelle heads to Connecticut. Hillary Clinton goes to Arkansas and Georgia and sends her husband Bill to Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado. John Edwards is in Louisiana and Georgia.

The Republican candidates head to California for a debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley.

Even President Bush is heading into a Feb. 5 state (he knows he's not running right?) for an RNC luncheon in Los Angeles and a dinner in Hillsborough, CA.

On the campaign trail. . .

JOHN MCCAIN